Solving the Metro Vancouver Industrial Land Shortage?

[fredinno]

Probably one issue that is pretty underrated in terms of importance in Metro Vancouver is Industrial Land Shortage.

https://www.portvancouver.com/wp-con...nomics-Ltd.pdf

"Consequences of Industrial Land Shortage on Metro Vancouver Region... Massive loss of jobs, in a region with a persistently weak economy and relatively small office employment component"

"Metro Vancouver will clearly run out of industrial land within the next 15 to 20 years It will run out of logistics oriented and required lands in less than 10 years" Note that it's not just warehouses that need Industrial Land, but Film Studios, and tech hubs. And no more land appears to be coming in on the horizon.
https://biv.com/article/2018/04/vanc...-decade-closes
"Metro Vancouver’s industrial vacancy rate is a tight 1.9% , according to Colliers International, well below the five-year average of 3% and one of the lowest in North America."

Densification is NOT realistic http://www.metrovancouver.org/servic...rMarch2013.pdf
"The analysis reveals that this project would be feasible and support current market land values ($1.4 million per acre of serviced industrial land) if net rents were $22.5 per sq.ft. which is far higher than any industrial market in North America. The land value would have to be much higher than current market and equate to land which is zoned for retail and commercial and much higher value land uses." No, you can't build more levels to Industrial land; it just doesn't make economic sense, and unlike residents, they can move elsewhere if they please; which is happening as industrial land gets more scarce where it is needed (specifically near Transportation lines and Rivers)

New Industrial Land parcels remain in Hazelmere and Golden Ears Park, but are not suitable for logistics use due to their large distance from...everything, really. Meanwhile, more industrial land is being lost- Brentwood and the Ioco Lands are clear examples of this. There's simply not enough incentive for municipalities to zone Industrial; on the short term, condos generate much more money.

Where to build? Obviously zoning into suburban or Urban land is unrealistic. That land is lost forever.

The only remaining parcels of land are out in the Suburbs. This gives us two options:

Zone outside the ALR
http://images.dailyhive.com/20160531...signations.jpg
There is a fair amount of land in Metro Vancouver neither developed nor ALR; most particularly in Langley and Maple Ridge. Willoughby is most likely too late to stop urbanization. Maple Ridge around 256 St, the Silver Valley, and Ruskin is not included within the ALR; however, like the Industrial land in Hazelmere, simply lack any real connections to...anywhere; not good for industrial zoning.

Unless an expressway across Maple Ridge was built, it's not going to happen.
Langley is more promising; the Salmon River Uplands has remained in a Limbo for decades, with its lot sizes not large enough for effective agriculture, but not technically completely out of the ALR. Langley has made numerous proposals to move the area entirely out of the ALR, and Metro Vancouver designates the area as 'rural' (ie out of the ALR, but outside the Urban Containment Boundary).

http://images.dailyhive.com/20160531...signations.jpg

It has great location to the Freeway, and could be a viable location for Industrial logistical uses. However, the area is partially suburbanized already, and an area in the North would likely be reserved for Trinity Western's 'University District'.

The area near 0 Avenue has the same problems and advantages.

Inside ALR
If we include land in the ALR, we have plenty new options. Delta in particular would probably become the prime target; potentially also areas like Barnston Island. This is (understandably) going to not be viewed that well. However, the Tsawwassen First Nations created a precedent for similar treaty processes in the Future. This is a potential threat to the ALR; but is an opportunity for both the industrial land market and the tribal governments themselves. The Katzie could get control of Barnston Island, and develop that area as an industrial park.

Protecting Current Industrial Land
In order to stop the decrease in Industrial Land stock in Metro Vancouver, I also propose an "Industrial Land Reserve". This will preserve Industrial Land, preventing Municipalities from short-sightedly reducing the stock of Industrial land to increase tax revenue- with the sole exception of if the industry is located in a strategic location near rapid Transit (Scott Road, Brentwood- keeping Brentwood industrial is kind of a waste of the Millennium Line- and that's part of the point of Skytrain.)

We need to make sure that Metro Vancouver has a future- and to do that, we need more than just condo towers.

Thoughts below?

[osirisboy]

Not sure how underrated this is though. It always seems to be talked about

I'm always amazed at how every industrial project looks identical. What I don't get is why they are built in such a sprawling manner. Massive setbacks with massive landscaping. No one walks around these areas yet they allocate a ton of land for green space

[misher]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

Not sure how underrated this is though. It always seems to be talked about

I'm always amazed at how every industrial project looks identical. What I don't get is why they are built in such a sprawling manner. Massive setbacks with massive landscaping. No one walks around these areas yet they allocate a ton of land for green space

My guess is that the fsr for industrial is so low that they’ve maximized what square footage they can build.

This article offers good perspective on office and industrial zoning.
https://renx.ca/office-zoning-in-van...l-estate-boom/

[whatnext]

There seems to be a big chunk on the North Arm around Marpole vacant. Why haven't they built on that?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

There seems to be a big chunk on the North Arm around Marpole vacant. Why haven't they built on that?

Are you talking about the chunk of land beside the Canada Line? I heard a proposal for riverside park (20 acres of land). That would be pretty nice, though I'm not sure if this was real or a Park Board candidate pie in the sky plan.

[Changing City]

The status of industrial land, and the finite nature of supply has been the focus of a lot of work by Metro Vancouver over a number of years. This presentation covers a lot of the issues, and has a lot of detail on where the industrial lands are located, whether they're at risk of loss to other uses, or protected (for the time being) through zoning and OCP designation.

The development status and potential for industrial lands has the same set of issues that affect housing and affordability - the limited land base, the land values that have run up over the past few years, and the very high cost of developing. It's possible to build 2-level (or even multi level) distribution centres for example, and there's an example shown in that presentation in Seattle. However, it seems that tenants have to be willing to pay more than they're currently willing, or able to do, to justify the additional costs of construction. If trucking costs rise then presumably it will become more logical/affordable for Home Depot (for example) to pay to have a Greater Vancouver distribution centre, rather than service the Lower Mainland from a Calgary distribution base (where land is plentiful, and cheaper). It appears that it's major warehouse/distribution centres that are most in need of additional land (although 20% of industrial land - over 2,000 ha. - is identified as 'vacant' in the Metro Vancouver inventory).

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The status of industrial land, and the finite nature of supply has been the focus of a lot of work by Metro Vancouver over a number of years. This presentation covers a lot of the issues, and has a lot of detail on where the industrial lands are located, whether they're at risk of loss to other uses, or protected (for the time being) through zoning and OCP designation.

The development status and potential for industrial lands has the same set of issues that affect housing and affordability - the limited land base, the land values that have run up over the past few years, and the very high cost of developing. It's possible to build 2-level (or even multi level) distribution centres for example, and there's an example shown in that presentation in Seattle. However, it seems that tenants have to be willing to pay more than they're currently willing, or able to do, to justify the additional costs of construction. If trucking costs rise then presumably it will become more logical/affordable for Home Depot (for example) to pay to have a Greater Vancouver distribution centre, rather than service the Lower Mainland from a Calgary distribution base (where land is plentiful, and cheaper). It appears that it's major warehouse/distribution centres that are most in need of additional land (although 20% of industrial land - over 2,000 ha. - is identified as 'vacant' in the Metro Vancouver inventory).

The issue is that that development near Skytrain or City Centers is accelerating the decline in industrial land availability; it's far easier to build on factories and warehouses than single-family housing (even though the latter is honestly less efficient form a urban perspective). That's understandable, but the land isn't being replaced with more land elsewhere.

I am aware Metro and Port Vancouver have been making alarm bells about the issue; the municipalities are to blame for not listening.

Honestly, it might take for the land shortage to reach critical shortage levels (literally no logistics-oriented land left ie. in 5-10 years), and the inevitable flurry of ALR rezoning applications for them to realize mistakes may have been made.

There's still some land and vacancy left- but that's the case with literally any real estate market. There's just scant breathing room. The time to stop it, as with climate change, and unchecked urban sprawl, is before the critical shortage happens, not after.

[casper]

What I don't understand is why we don't see more mixed use. Industrial on ground floor, and then build a residential or office tower above.

Most of the industrial land shown in that slide deck is not manufacturing. Actually none of it is manufacturing. It is nearly all warehousing for retailers. That is a fairly low impact industrial use.

[Alex Mackinnon]

Perhaps that will result in added pressure to connect the Sunshine Coast to the Mainland via rail and highway?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

Perhaps that will result in added pressure to connect the Sunshine Coast to the Mainland via rail and highway?

Warehouses around Gibsons? It's got merit, but you might want to keep that idea to yourself...

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by casper

What I don't understand is why we don't see more mixed use. Industrial on ground floor, and then build a residential or office tower above.

Most of the industrial land shown in that slide deck is not manufacturing. Actually none of it is manufacturing. It is nearly all warehousing for retailers. That is a fairly low impact industrial use.

Building multi-storey buildings with industrial uses on the main floor and office (or production) uses above is becoming increasingly common in the City of Vancouver in several of the more centrally located industrial areas. There's an example below from Vernon Drive, and another further out at Bridgeview, near the Second Narrows Bridge. There are many more recently completed or currently proposed.

Mixing residential uses isn't generally a good idea because it pushes land values way up, so existing businesses have to pay much higher taxes, which forces them out of what otherwise might be a viable industrial area. It also restricts the types of industries and hours businesses can operate. Residents shouldn't be able to move into an area that's industrial, and then complain about the industries operating there - but they do.

Adding other uses over warehouses is difficult because generally the ideal warehouse space these days is high, and as column-free as possible. That makes it very difficult, in structural engineering terms, to add additional weight on a second floor. Adding columns and shear walls (for seismic resilience) compromise the warehouse space, so it's generally not considered ideal. Even processing or production spaces are more often single storey, rather than multi-storey these days. It makes efficiency of operation, and ease of changing machinery much greater. The Post Office moved from the multi-floor building Downtown to a single storey plant near the Airport for exactly that reason.

Here's the Vernon Drive example [source]



And 3333 Bridgeway, strata commercial and industrial with mini storage. [source]

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Warehouses around Gibsons? It's got merit, but you might want to keep that idea to yourself...

You don't need to stop with warehousing. There's always the opportunity to increase or repurpose port facilities up there as well.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

You don't need to stop with warehousing. There's always the opportunity to increase or repurpose port facilities up there as well.

The point I'm making is that if six floors is too much, and even two-floor townhomes are going to tower over the community, anybody suggesting warehouses (much less a port upgrade) is going to be lynched faster than they can say "paving paradise."

[SpongeG]

this fits in here i think

• Video Link

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The point I'm making is that if six floors is too much, and even two-floor townhomes are going to tower over the community, anybody suggesting warehouses (much less a port upgrade) is going to be lynched faster than they can say "paving paradise."

I'm well aware. My grandpa got a noise complaint from his neighbours in Gibsons because he used to whistle in the morning.

Economic pressure has a tendency to remain, while eventually NIMBYs age out and croak.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

this fits in here i think

• Video Link

Cool video, but isn't the industrial park being built by the TFN several times larger than interurban's 264k SF park in Richmond? Seems like a pretty big miss by the Sun.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Cool video, but isn't the industrial park being built by the TFN several times larger than interurban's 264k SF park in Richmond? Seems like a pretty big miss by the Sun.

It isn't larger, the Richmond park is enormous. Take a stroll through google maps.

[officedweller]

There are other projects - even in Richmond that are bigger than PC Urban's project.
...Like the new IKEA distribution warehouse (which is 330,000 sq ft alone and is the 4th and final phase of that project) and other projects in that area of Richmond.

https://renx.ca/ikea-new-distributio...e-richmond-bc/

The PC Urban project probably got press because it is strata-titled - with units for sale.

[misher]

Originally Posted by officedweller

There are other projects - even in Richmond that are bigger than PC Urban's project.
...Like the new IKEA distribution warehouse (which is 330,000 sq ft alone) and other projects in that area of Richmond.

https://renx.ca/ikea-new-distributio...e-richmond-bc/

The PC Urban project probably got press because it may be strata-titled - with units for sale.

Now that I think about it East Richmond probably has the most room for creating industrial warehouses near Vancouver.

[fredinno]

Is there any news about the future of the Shellburn Oil Refinery area?

Ideally, it'd be moved back to use for some other industrial purpose, however, the area is fairly hilly terrain. If it's still suitable, though, that's a pretty huge chunk of potential industrial land supply freed up.