Who will replace Harper?

[ssiguy]

You cannot go by how the Conservatives did in the last election to forecast future elections. Harper was given the last election by the Liberals with ivory tower, American Ignatief. How they expected any one to embrace a guy who hasn't lived in the country for 15 years and said "the only good thing about Canada was Algonquin Park"? The Liberals got pounded in the last election and they damn well deserved it. Expecting that to repeat itself is foolish.

Ontario has always been a Liberal bastion and although that was once also true of Quebec, they still have a solid footing in the province especially in Gatineau, the Eastern townships, and most importantly Greater Montreal. This combined with their strangle hold on AC and the Tories are terminally in trouble.

The Tories have got to move more towards the centrist progressive Conservative ideology of yester year if they every hope to form government again.

As for the collapse of the NDP, they only have themselves to blame by trying to move right and abandoning their principles.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

That would be an uphill struggle. She has zero national profile.

True. But unlike those here who suggest otherwise, Watts will def win her seat in SS-WR. And "unknowns" always enter leadership races for opposition parties and win. Watts is well connected, not only in BC, but across Canada. Watch her name moving forward. Seriously.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

It's also possible that a lesser known candidate enters the race and wins over the party. Greg Rickford and Erin O'Toole - two ministers from Ontario - have interesting backgrounds and both have been capable ministers. O'Toole hasn't been an MP for long but has quickly moved up the ranks and has done good work at Veteran's Affairs. Jean Charest did not have a whole lot of cabinet experience and was only 35 years old when he early beat out Kim Campbell for the leadership of the PC Party.



The Conservatives won 44% of the vote which is a pretty good showing in a three party system.

As I live in Northern Ontario, I highly doubt Greg Rickford would become leader. First of all I'm pretty sure he will lose his seat. He's not well liked in Northern Ontario. Only in the Town of Kenora and maybe Dryden a bit. But even then it's not solid support in a region that is normally Liberal or NDP and where First Nations and aboriginals make up 35% of the population. Most people here don't even know who he is. I really don't know who Erin O'Toole is other than that his Father was a former MPP and cabinet minister when the Mike Harris PCs were in power. It will be interesting to see if he holds onto his seat as it's supposedly safe.

The CPCs getting 44% in Ontario was definitely a good showing but I can't see it happening again for a long time.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

True. But unlike those here who suggest otherwise, Watts will def win her seat in SS-WR. And "unknowns" always enter leadership races for opposition parties and win. Watts is well connected, not only in BC, but across Canada. Watch her name moving forward. Seriously.

She has to win for it not to be an outright disaster for the Conservatives. How her brand is so revered still blows my mind. She ran one of the fastest growing cities in Canada and did what? Crime is still high, sprawl continues, transit is nowhere to be seen. Of all the "Star Candidates" I see none more overrated than Dianne Watts. That being said, the riding is a must win for the Conservatives. If their star candidate loses a guaranteed riding to a candidate parachuted in to the riding after the original candidate was booted for controversy, yeah, it will be a devastating night for the CPC.

I doubt her ability to be a national leader.

[bikegypsy]

Great piece by William Thorsell, former Globe and Mail editor in chief:

Throwout

https://medium.com/@InklessPW/throwo...l-986c7546f921

[Nouvellecosse]

^ I read that at least several days ago, maybe over a week. I thought it was on here but maybe it was facebook.

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

They need someone who can reach to the more PC voters without alienating the Reform base. If the Reform Party revives, the Liberals are in government indefinitely.

I'd like to see a progressive conservative who can also take on some of the 'reform' planks of the Reform party, while leaving the social conservatism at the door.

[PoscStudent]

I don't necessarily disagree with people - I'm kinda playing devil's advocate - but I'm interested in knowing what policies the Conservatives under Harper are promoting that people think someone from the Progressive Conservative wing of the party wouldn't?

[SkydivePilot]

Hopefully nobody.

[Airboy]

If indeed Harpers government is reduced to opposition. we may see a civil war within the conservative party. The Reformers and the PCs. there have been grumblings from the PC wing since the alliance.

But for who will run to replace Harper if he indeed steps down, I do not see anyone. Any of the people that I thought would try have left the Political live. Maybe Jason Kenny might go for it though.

[Bdog]

Originally Posted by Migs

I look forward to bumping this thread in a month.

So, is it you Migs??

[Klazu]

This guy

Originally Posted by ainvan

Welcome Prime Minister Trudeau!





Chatelaine

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by csbvan

She has to win for it not to be an outright disaster for the Conservatives. How her brand is so revered still blows my mind. She ran one of the fastest growing cities in Canada and did what? Crime is still high, sprawl continues, transit is nowhere to be seen. Of all the "Star Candidates" I see none more overrated than Dianne Watts. That being said, the riding is a must win for the Conservatives. If their star candidate loses a guaranteed riding to a candidate parachuted in to the riding after the original candidate was booted for controversy, yeah, it will be a devastating night for the CPC.

I doubt her ability to be a national leader.

Sad to see the Smarmatrix Watts elected. At least she came close to being picked off, and she'll sit in opposition for at least 4 years.

[ozonemania]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Sad to see the Smarmatrix Watts elected. At least she came close to being picked off, and she'll sit in opposition for at least 4 years.

Of all people, she could pull off a floor cross. Or could she, would her constituents accept that?

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by ozonemania

Of all people, she could pull off a floor cross. Or could she, would her constituents accept that?

She won by a fraction against a candidate parachuted in barely a month ago. It's not the strongest Conservative riding.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Hopefully a red Tory from, presumably, NS. Let's get the party back from the Reform/Alliance crowd.

Oops, not a single Tory. red or otherwise elected in the Maritimes! Even MacKay's old seat gone Liberal.

Looks like Baird, Moore and MacKay made the right decision to bail before the election. Now they're not tainted with the "loser" label should they want to run.

[Taeolas]

I wonder how long they can stall in picking a new leader. They'll need someone fairly quick to be Leader of the Opposition; but it may not be the right leader depending on how Trudeau jumps.

Electoral reform is the elephant in the room at the moment. With such a large majority, the Liberals are most likely to stay with the status quo. But Trudeau did make a very public promise that this would be the last FPTP election, so there will be pressure to do something. Plus the Liberal elite have got to know this election was a fluke, and 2019 could very likely end up with a Tory minority again with the FPTP Grit/Dip vote splitting.

If we do see some Electoral reform in the works, the Tory's (and NDP) will probably want a different style of leader than they would have if everything stays the same. That'll certainly affect planning. Luckily, if Trudeau does start trying to implement Electoral Reform, he'll have to announce it fairly early in his mandate so there will be time to implement it and educate people.

[MonctonRad]

Mark my words, the Liberals will drop electoral reform like a hot potato now that they have a majority mandate. It's not in their interest.

As for what the Tories have to do. Pick an interim leader from caucus PDQ, then plan a leadership convention sometime in 2017 so that the new leader has a couple of years to get established before the next election.

I still like the idea of Lisa Raitt becoming the new permanent leader of the party. I would certainly support Peter McKay too, but running for the leadership in 2017 might be too soon for him. It's a dicey decision for him......

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Mark my words, the Liberals will drop electoral reform like a hot potato now that they have a majority mandate. It's not in their interest.

As for what the Tories have to do. Pick an interim leader from caucus PDQ, then plan a leadership convention sometime in 2017 so that the new leader has a couple of years to get established before the next election.

I still like the idea of Lisa Raitt becoming the new permanent leader of the party. I would certainly support Peter McKay too, but running for the leadership in 2017 might be too soon for him. It's a dicey decision for him......

That guy, seriously?!

[Aylmer]

For all those fretting about electoral reform, remember that FPTP benefits the CPC, but the preferential ballot DEFINITELY benefits the LPC and NDP.

Had we had the preferential ballot, all Conservative seats without more than 50% would almost certainly gone to a different candidate, but the opposite wouldn't necessarily be true. So almost all of QC and almost all of Ontario's CPC seats would have gone red or orange along with Calgary, Edmonton, Suburban Vancouver...

Electoral reform is very much to their benefit.