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  #121  
Old Posted Jun 29, 2013, 9:40 PM
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I decided to look up some figures to compare the growth of all European countries during the last 20 years (1992-2012).

+41.0% CYPRUS: 0.61 million (1992) -> 0.86 million (2012)
+35.9% LUXEMBOURG: 0.39 million (1992) -> 0.53 million (2012)
+28.9% IRELAND: 3.56 million (1992) -> 4.59 million (2012)
+25.8% AZERBAIJAN: 7.39 million (1992) -> 9.30 million (2012)
+25.4% TURKEY: 59.60 million (1992) -> 74.72 million (2012)
+23.1% ICELAND: 0.26 million (1992) -> 0.32 million (2012)
+21.0% SPAIN: 39.07 million (1992) -> 47.27 million (2012)
+16.3% SWITZERLAND: 6.88 million (1992) -> 8.00 million (2012)
+16.3% NORWAY: 4.29 million (1992) -> 4.99 million (2012)
+13.5% MALTA: 0.37 million (1992) -> 0.42 million (2012)
+11.3% FRANCE: 57.24 million (1992) -> 63.70 million (2012)
+10.2% BELGIUM: 10.05 million (1992) -> 11.08 million (2012)
+10.1% NETHERLANDS: 15.18 million (1992) -> 16.71 million (2012)
+9.6% SWEDEN: 8.72 million (1992) -> 9.56 million (2012)
+9.5% UNITED KINGDOM: 57.51 million (1992) -> 62.99 million (2012)
+7.9% AUSTRIA: 7.84 million (1992) -> 8.46 million (2012)
+7.9% DENMARK: 5.17 million (1992) -> 5.58 million (2012)
+7.7% FINLAND: 5.04 million (1992) -> 5.43 million (2012)
+6.8% PORTUGAL: 9.96 million (1992) -> 10.64 million (2012)
+6.7% MACEDONIA: 1.93 million (1992) -> 2.06 million (2012)
+5.1% MONTENEGRO: 0.59 million (1992) -> 0.62 million (2012)
+4.7% ITALY: 56.80 million (1992) -> 59.48 million (2012)
+4.4% GREECE: 10.37 million (1992) -> 10.82 million (2012)
+3.0% SLOVENIA: 2.00 million (1992) -> 2.06 million (2012)
+1.9% CZECH REPUBLIC: 10.32 million (1992) -> 10.52 million (2012)
+1.9% SLOVAKIA: 5.31 million (1992) -> 5.41 million (2012)
+1.8% GERMANY: 80.57 million (1992) -> 82.00 million (2012)
+0.4% POLAND: 38.37 million (1992) -> 38.53 million (2012)
-3.6% RUSSIA: 148.54 million (1992) -> 143.21 million (2012)
-4.0% CROATIA: 4.47 million (1992) -> 4.29 million (2012)
-4.2% HUNGARY: 10.37 million (1992) -> 9.93 million (2012)
-7.4% BELARUS: 10.22 million (1992) -> 9.46 million (2012)
-7.7% BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA: 4.16 million (1992) -> 3.84 million (2012)
-8.9% SERBIA: 7.85 million (1992) -> 7.15 million (2012)
-11.9% ALBANIA: 3.18 million (1992) -> 2.80 million (2012)
-12.4% UKRAINE: 52.06 million (1992) -> 45.63 million (2012)
-13.9% KOSOVO: 2.01 million (1992) -> 1.73 million (2012)
-14.4% BULGARIA: 8.54 million (1992) -> 7.31 million (2012)
-14.9% ARMENIA: 3.55 million (1992) -> 3.02 million (2012)
-15.7% ESTONIA: 1.53 million (1992) -> 1.29 million (2012)
-16.7% ROMANIA: 22.79 million (1992) -> 18.99 million (2012)
-16.8% GEORGIA: 5.41 million (1992) -> 4.50 million (2012)
-18.2% MOLDOVA: 4.35 million (1992) -> 3.56 million (2012)
-19.2% LITHUANIA: 3.70 million (1992) -> 2.99 million (2012)
-21.8% LATVIA: 2.61 million (1992) -> 2.04 million (2012)



Dark green: >+10%
Light green: <+10%
Light red: <-10%
Dark red: >-10%

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  #122  
Old Posted Jun 30, 2013, 9:44 AM
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^ I think countries like Poland or Czech Republic would've been pink not so long ago. It's reassuring to see green stretching to the east, but this whole thing is still growing too old, lacking little kids. Much of the growth is due to immigrants from Africa (widely depopulated and severely hit by brain drain) and Asia, and eastern countries in red are seeing significant parts of their populations moving to the west.

It's been growing too old anyways, and stealing so much population from Africa is causing some issues to the perspective of real development over there. People already there must make more kids, that should be an absolute priority of local policies.
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  #123  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2013, 3:14 PM
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
The boom years in Madrid and Barcelona are over. The province of Madrid lost 16,357 inhabitants in 2013 (-0.25%) and the province of Barcelona lost 39,888 inhabitants (-0.72%).
No wonder since one third of the youth is unemployed... As a consequence, all the young people who don't have a job leave their country. Sad but true.
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  #124  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2013, 5:53 PM
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The French statistical office (INSEE) has published the 2010 immigrant figures for France, and if you know how to extract data from the figures, they reveal something frankly shocking: France has now become an emigration country for its own population (its youth in particular), just like Ireland in the 19th century.

Some words of explanations are needed here. As crazy as it may sound, France is the only country in Western Europe which does not estimate the yearly inflows and outflows of people from its territory. All the West European nations, the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, estimate their inflows and outflows every year, and therefore calculate their net migration every year (inflows minus outflows). Most of them also refine the figures by distinguishing inflows and outflows of foreigners and of nationals.

For reasons that remain a mystery to me, the French statistical office does not and has never estimated the yearly inflows and outflows from France. Or, to be more precise, they publish an estimate that is little more than a guesstimate without any real value (contrary to say, a country like the UK where they have a passenger survey that asks people in airports and seaports whether they are in/outmigrating or just traveling; even land countries like Germany or Spain have those surveys, but France doesn't).

In the old days, we could know the net migration of France only when a new census took place. By comparing the population from the previous census (say the 1990 census) and the next census (the 1999 census), and subtracting the total number of deaths between the two censuses from the total number of births, we could deduct the net migration over the period between the two censuses.

France now conducts yearly censuses. It's a very original method which is somewhat similar to the American Community Survey in the US. It's a real and rolling census, that is updated every year. So we can now know with certainty the net migration for each year, since the rolling census takes place each year, but since the results of the census are published only 3 years after the census takes place, we know the net migration only after 4 years (for example with the figures published by INSEE last week we can calculate the net migration in 2009, by comparing the Jan. 2009 and Jan. 2010 censuses)

The net migration is a raw figure. It does not distinguish between foreigners and nationals. I'm not going to go too much into detail, but basically, I found a way to calculate the net migration for just French nationals, because INSEE publishes the number of immigrants living in France at each census, so by comparing the number of immigrants living in France at each census, and checking the number of immigrants who die on French soil on each given year, we can arrive at a figure that is the net migration of French nationals.

The net migration of France is low compared to other European countries. The UK routinely has a net migration of +200,000 or more per year. Germany and Italy had more than +300,000 last year. Spain used to have insane net migrations of +600,000 per year. France, on the best years, has a net migration of only +100,000, and in the past few years (up to 2009, last year for which we can make calculations), the net migration has declined to less than +50,000, which is ridiculously low compared to the neighboring countries.

I had long suspected that this low net migration was due to huge outflows of French people (because pretty much as many immigrants want to move to France as to Italy or the UK), and it turns out I was unfortunately quite right, and the situation is even worse than I had imagined.

Here are the figures. These figures are totally unknown in France, because INSEE does not publish them, and it takes a bit of "cleverness" and number crunching to arrive at them.

Net migration of French nationals:
2006: -43,605
2007: -56,741
2008: -76,585
2009: -90,088

Net migration of foreign immigrants:
2006: +155,746
2007: +130,367
2008: +133,397
2009: +122,427

Net migration of France (it's the sum of the two, basically):
2006: +112,141
2007: +73,626
2008: +56,812
2009: +32,339

For comparison, this is the net migration of British nationals in the UK, a country reputed for the emigration of its population:
2006: -119,000 to -124,000
2007: -88,000 to -97,000
2008: -84,000 to -87,000
2009: -29,000 to -44,000

We can see that the net outflows of British nationals has been reduced, due to the crash of the sterling pound in 2008 and the crash of the Spanish economy, which led to the return of many British pensioners to the UK (because their £ pensions have now less purchasing power abroad), and also to the return of many British workers who simply could not find jobs anymore in Southern European countries, Spain in particular.

At the same time, the net outflows of French nationals have increased, and are now worse than the net outflows of British nationals. In 2009, the last year for which calculations are possible, the net migration of French nationals was about -90,000. This means that much more than 90,000 French people left France that year. Since there exist no inflow and outflow statistics, we can't know how many French people left France that year, but for example that net figure could be the result of 150,000 French people leaving France and 60,000 French people returning to France.

Like I said, these figures are totally unknown to the French public, and nobody has any idea that more than 100,000 French people leave France for good every year now, which is the largest bleeding the country has experienced in peacetime since the flight of the Huguenots in the 17th century.

And the time series ends in 2009. We can only surmise that it's even worse now (especially since the Socialists came back to power last year). I wouldn't be surprised if 200,000 French people left France yearly now.

European newspapers are full of articles about the flight of young Spaniards from Spain (when in fact only a few tens of thousands of Spaniards left Spain last year), but the real hot story should be the flight of French people from their home country.

One reason why this pretty significant phenomenon is completely overlooked is because (beyond the fact that INSEE does not have a survey of inflows and outflows) France is a fertile and temperate country which people have rarely left to migrate to foreign lands (France was one of the least contributors to the population of the Americas). Most French people (at least in the elites) still live with this belief that France is this country of milk and honey where everybody wants to come to live (hence the strong Far Right which imagines that billions of immigrants are about to invade France if the country doesn't erect walls) and which no one can possibly in their right mind desire to leave. One renowned and very knowledgeable French demographer even wrote a few years ago in an otherwise very enlightening book called 'Le temps des immigrés' that the net migration of French nationals was assumed to be +0 (!!).

As you can see from the figures I've calculated, there is a serious need in France to reassess the situation about migration of French nationals.
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  #125  
Old Posted Jul 5, 2013, 11:31 PM
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^ Thank you for this, Brisavoine, that's a good helpful job.
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  #126  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2013, 2:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
The French statistical office (INSEE) has published the 2010 immigrant figures for France, and if you know how to extract data from the figures, they reveal something frankly shocking: France has now become an emigration country for its own population (its youth in particular), just like Ireland in the 19th century.

Some words of explanations are needed here. As crazy as it may sound, France is the only country in Western Europe which does not estimate the yearly inflows and outflows of people from its territory. All the West European nations, the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, estimate their inflows and outflows every year, and therefore calculate their net migration every year (inflows minus outflows). Most of them also refine the figures by distinguishing inflows and outflows of foreigners and of nationals.

For reasons that remain a mystery to me, the French statistical office does not and has never estimated the yearly inflows and outflows from France. Or, to be more precise, they publish an estimate that is little more than a guesstimate without any real value (contrary to say, a country like the UK where they have a passenger survey that asks people in airports and seaports whether they are in/outmigrating or just traveling; even land countries like Germany or Spain have those surveys, but France doesn't).

In the old days, we could know the net migration of France only when a new census took place. By comparing the population from the previous census (say the 1990 census) and the next census (the 1999 census), and subtracting the total number of deaths between the two censuses from the total number of births, we could deduct the net migration over the period between the two censuses.

France now conducts yearly censuses. It's a very original method which is somewhat similar to the American Community Survey in the US. It's a real and rolling census, that is updated every year. So we can now know with certainty the net migration for each year, since the rolling census takes place each year, but since the results of the census are published only 3 years after the census takes place, we know the net migration only after 4 years (for example with the figures published by INSEE last week we can calculate the net migration in 2009, by comparing the Jan. 2009 and Jan. 2010 censuses)

The net migration is a raw figure. It does not distinguish between foreigners and nationals. I'm not going to go too much into detail, but basically, I found a way to calculate the net migration for just French nationals, because INSEE publishes the number of immigrants living in France at each census, so by comparing the number of immigrants living in France at each census, and checking the number of immigrants who die on French soil on each given year, we can arrive at a figure that is the net migration of French nationals.

The net migration of France is low compared to other European countries. The UK routinely has a net migration of +200,000 or more per year. Germany and Italy had more than +300,000 last year. Spain used to have insane net migrations of +600,000 per year. France, on the best years, has a net migration of only +100,000, and in the past few years (up to 2009, last year for which we can make calculations), the net migration has declined to less than +50,000, which is ridiculously low compared to the neighboring countries.

I had long suspected that this low net migration was due to huge outflows of French people (because pretty much as many immigrants want to move to France as to Italy or the UK), and it turns out I was unfortunately quite right, and the situation is even worse than I had imagined.

Here are the figures. These figures are totally unknown in France, because INSEE does not publish them, and it takes a bit of "cleverness" and number crunching to arrive at them.

Net migration of French nationals:
2006: -43,605
2007: -56,741
2008: -76,585
2009: -90,088

Net migration of foreign immigrants:
2006: +155,746
2007: +130,367
2008: +133,397
2009: +122,427

Net migration of France (it's the sum of the two, basically):
2006: +112,141
2007: +73,626
2008: +56,812
2009: +32,339

For comparison, this is the net migration of British nationals in the UK, a country reputed for the emigration of its population:
2006: -119,000 to -124,000
2007: -88,000 to -97,000
2008: -84,000 to -87,000
2009: -29,000 to -44,000

We can see that the net outflows of British nationals has been reduced, due to the crash of the sterling pound in 2008 and the crash of the Spanish economy, which led to the return of many British pensioners to the UK (because their £ pensions have now less purchasing power abroad), and also to the return of many British workers who simply could not find jobs anymore in Southern European countries, Spain in particular.

At the same time, the net outflows of French nationals have increased, and are now worse than the net outflows of British nationals. In 2009, the last year for which calculations are possible, the net migration of French nationals was about -90,000. This means that much more than 90,000 French people left France that year. Since there exist no inflow and outflow statistics, we can't know how many French people left France that year, but for example that net figure could be the result of 150,000 French people leaving France and 60,000 French people returning to France.

Like I said, these figures are totally unknown to the French public, and nobody has any idea that more than 100,000 French people leave France for good every year now, which is the largest bleeding the country has experienced in peacetime since the flight of the Huguenots in the 17th century.

And the time series ends in 2009. We can only surmise that it's even worse now (especially since the Socialists came back to power last year). I wouldn't be surprised if 200,000 French people left France yearly now.

European newspapers are full of articles about the flight of young Spaniards from Spain (when in fact only a few tens of thousands of Spaniards left Spain last year), but the real hot story should be the flight of French people from their home country.

One reason why this pretty significant phenomenon is completely overlooked is because (beyond the fact that INSEE does not have a survey of inflows and outflows) France is a fertile and temperate country which people have rarely left to migrate to foreign lands (France was one of the least contributors to the population of the Americas). Most French people (at least in the elites) still live with this belief that France is this country of milk and honey where everybody wants to come to live (hence the strong Far Right which imagines that billions of immigrants are about to invade France if the country doesn't erect walls) and which no one can possibly in their right mind desire to leave. One renowned and very knowledgeable French demographer even wrote a few years ago in an otherwise very enlightening book called 'Le temps des immigrés' that the net migration of French nationals was assumed to be +0 (!!).

As you can see from the figures I've calculated, there is a serious need in France to reassess the situation about migration of French nationals.
Very interesting. Any idea of the places they are going?
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  #127  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2013, 10:18 AM
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^ Belgium, the UK, Switzerland, the US, Canada... These few must be the main shelters. Most of them still call France their home full of an amazing plus that's got everything to succeed, they're just waiting for it to get more self-confident and business friendly. Then many should come back home.
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  #128  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2013, 11:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mousquet View Post
^ Belgium, the UK, Switzerland, the US, Canada... These few must be the main shelters. Most of them still call France their home full of an amazing plus that's got everything to succeed, they're just waiting for it to get more self-confident and business friendly. Then many should come back home.
Thanks. I was wondering about this. I live in Québec and we have been seeing (hearing actually!) people from France in increasing numbers for about 20 years, but lately there seem to be a lot more.

I was thinking about this recently because my children were at summer camp this past week and both of the "new friends" they each made for the week were French kids who have been living here for only 1-2 years.
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  #129  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2013, 12:25 PM
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^ I left montreal in 2009 and came back in 2012, and it felt like the number of French people in the streets had doubled in that time. Many of them are likely here temporarily (students etc) but experience shows they are more likely to stay or come back.

CIC reports that the annual inflow of permanent residents from France has pretty much doubled since the early 2000s, going from roughly 4000 to 8000 a year. Likely most of them coming to Quebec, and specifically Montreal.

Sources:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resourc...rmanent/10.asp (2001-2010)
http://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donnee...000013-eng.xls (2012)
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  #130  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2013, 1:56 PM
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Very interesting. Any idea of the places they are going?
If we look at the French citizens who register in French consulates, the evolution is like this. Keep in mind that not all French citizens settling abroad register in the French consulates, especially in Europe and North America, although the two years I have selected were presidential election years, so probably more French citizens living abroad registered on those two particular years than is otherwise the case, because otherwise they couldn't have voted in the French presidential elections.

Evolution in the number of French citizens from Dec. 2006 to Dec. 2012:
- Belgium: +31,292
- Switzerland: +28,990
- Israel (incl. Palestinian territories): +17,870
- UK: +14,863
- China (incl. HK): +13,602
- Spain: +12,594
- Morocco: +12,580
- Canada: +11,447
- USA: +8,733
- United Arab Emirates: +7,491
- Luxembourg: +7,371
- Tunisia: +5,800
- Singapore: +4,851
- Brazil: +3,195
- Netherlands: +3,181

The number of French citizens declined in 29 countries, above all in Algeria (-11,154), followed by Madagascar (-1,310), Venezuela (-906), and Syria (-901).

In terms of relative evolution, if we take only the countries where more than 1,000 French citizens were registered in French consulates in Dec. 2006, we get this.

Evolution from Dec. 2006 to Dec. 2012:
- Qatar: +123.8%
- Singapore: +95.3%
- United Arab Emirates: +93.1%
- China (incl. HK): +79.2%
- Vietnam: +59.4%
- Cambodia: +59.2%
- Malaysia: +58.4%
- Philippines : +58.0%
- Turkey: +56.1%
- Congo-Kinshasa: +54.1%

If we take only the countries where more than 5,000 French citizens were registered in French consulates in Dec. 2006, we get this.

Evolution from Dec. 2006 to Dec. 2012:
- Singapore: +95.3%
- United Arab Emirates: +93.1%
- China (incl. HK): +79.2%
- Thailand: +43.1%
- Mauritius: +40.8%
- Morocco: +38.5%
- Belgium: +38.0%
- Tunisia: +35.3%
- Luxembourg: +32.1%
- Israel (incl. Palestinian territories): +30.4%

PS: Note that Germany, despite its good employment situation, is not a country that French people usually like to move too. Between Dec. 2006 and Dec. 2012, the number of French people registered in French consulates in Germany rose by only +2,060 (i.e. a modest +1.9%).
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  #131  
Old Posted Jul 6, 2013, 2:06 PM
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Interestingly, the French are now the #1 European community in Shanghai.

This is the number of foreign nationals living in Shanghai in 2011 according to the Shanghai Statistics Bureau:
- Japanese citizens: 37,223
- South Korean citizens: 20,297
- American (USA) citizens: 16,805
- French citizens: 8,751
- German citizens: 8,040
- Canadian citizens: 7,407
- Singaporean citizens: 6,955
- Australian citizens: 6,207
- British citizens: 5,728
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  #132  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2013, 11:29 AM
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How easy is it for North and West Africans to move to France? I visited Paris last summer, and was really surprised at the breadth and scale of its black population. Tons and tons of people from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Senegal, Guinea, Mali, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, etc. Most of these people were poor and seemed to be employed in marginal/working class and informal employment sectors.

So, it isn't like France is getting a bunch of particularly skilled and/or educated workers...alot even struggle with French. Are many there illegally? Or do these people have French ancestry (doubtful) or family? I am just curious on the ease of moving to France. I know that as an American, even an educated and multi-lingual one, it is quite difficult to immigrate to the UK or Germany without some specific family tie or work skill set/sponsorship (i.e, authorities have to show that nobody in the entire EU has your qualifications/skill set, hence the need to let in a non-EU/EEA national).
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  #133  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2013, 12:52 PM
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Immigrating to France is as difficult as immigrating to the UK or Germany for these people. Many, in particular the Maghrebans, manage to arrive in France through family reunion (either some immigrant already in France has his family come to France to be reunited with him, or some immigrant or child of immigrant marries someone from his ancestral country and brings that person to France).

Paris is not a good indicator of the number of immigrants in France, as they are precisely concentrated in Paris. The Métro is even less an indicator of the number of immigrants in France, as the immigrants use much more the Métro than private cars. If you looked at people driving cars, you'd see way less immigrant faces. So any observation drawn from watching people in the Métro of Paris is extremely biased.

Also, another point to keep in mind: many Black people in Paris are not sub-Saharan African immigrants, but people from the French West Indies, i.e. French citizens from the Caribbean, and not immigrants. If you're not a native French speaker, there's no way you could differentiate the two. Native French speakers can differentiate the two by their accent.

In 2009, there were 656,716 sub-Saharan African immigrants living in Metropolitan France (the European part of France). This figure does not include their children born on French soil. 58.6% of them lived in Greater Paris.

In 2009, there were also 299,139 people from the French West Indies and Haiti living in Metropolitan France (261,622 from the French West Indies and 37,517 from Haiti). 65.9% of them lived in Greater Paris.

For comparison, at the 2011 UK census, there were 1,214,098 sub-Saharan African immigrants living in England & Wales (although that figure includes 191,023 people from South Africa and 118,348 people from Zimbabwe/Rhodesia, many of whom are White people, as well as an unknown number of White British people born in Africa, like in Kenya for example). So even if we discount the White people from the total, and if we take into account the increase in the sub-Saharan African immigrants in France between 2009 and 2011, there are significantly more Black sub-Saharan African immigrants in England & Wales than in France. Undercount is unlikely, because the 2009 French census and the 2011 UK census counted everybody, including illegal immigrants.

47.4% of the 1,214,098 sub-Saharan African immigrants of England & Wales live in Greater London. If we exclude the South Africans and the Zimbabweans (Rhodesians), then 54.9% of the 904,727 immigrants from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa living in England & Wales in 2011 lived in Greater London.

As for the Caribbeans, in 2011 there were 283,136 people from the former and current British and French West Indies living in England & Wales. 55.4% of them lived in Greater London.

So England & Wales appears to have significantly more Black sub-Saharan African immigrants than Metropolitan France, and a little less Caribbean people than Metropolitan France.
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  #134  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2013, 5:22 PM
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It would also depend on bilateral agreements. For example, a friend of mine is from South Korea. Although she's been in France for over 5 years, fluent in French as any native, educated and pretty well established (she lives that wealthy neighborhood of the 16th arrondissement of her dreams ), she claims it's easier for people from the former colonies of the French to renew their visas, complaining about it. I couldn't say how accurate what she says is, though, as she's a pretty tough person, a little harsh to others sometimes.
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  #135  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2013, 12:52 PM
Crawford Crawford is online now
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
So England & Wales appears to have significantly more Black sub-Saharan African immigrants than Metropolitan France, and a little less Caribbean people than Metropolitan France.
Paris, to me, has always seemed "blacker" than London, though it could be that the Metro/RER biases my observations, and perhaps the black population is more concentrated in Paris and inner suburbs compared to London.

Your numbers do show slightly more centralization of black popualtion in Paris compared to London, and I could see the Paris populations generally more centralized, because of the spatial makeup of the region compared to London.
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  #136  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2013, 12:53 AM
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Paris, to me, has always seemed "blacker" than London, though it could be that the Metro/RER biases my observations, and perhaps the black population is more concentrated in Paris and inner suburbs compared to London.

Your numbers do show slightly more centralization of black popualtion in Paris compared to London, and I could see the Paris populations generally more centralized, because of the spatial makeup of the region compared to London.
That's my perception, too.

Brisavoine's stats are only including foreign-born, and not 2nd or 3rd generation people with sub-saharan African ethnicity or ancestry.

I suspect France has had African immigrants arriving over a longer period than in the UK which may be why you see far more black faces in France (and in my experience, not just confined to Paris).

Large scale migration from sub-Saharan Africa to the UK only really started after 1997 - before that, I'd imagine a significant proportion of the much smaller migrant numbers would be from the white colonial class, particularly those leaving S.Africa and Zimbabwe.

Looking up the stats, in 2009 there were 798,800 Black Africans in the UK (immigrants and their offspring) -whereas in France immigrants alone accounted for 669,401 - not strictly Sub-Saharan, but non-Magrehbi African. Outdated stats, but I actually wouldn't be surprised if the total figure of Black Africans in France was 3 times the British number.
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  #137  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2013, 8:14 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Originally Posted by johnnypd View Post
Brisavoine's stats are only including foreign-born, and not 2nd or 3rd generation people with sub-saharan African ethnicity or ancestry.

I suspect France has had African immigrants arriving over a longer period than in the UK which may be why you see far more black faces in France (and in my experience, not just confined to Paris).
That wouldn't play a role, since sub-Saharan African immigrants have only recently arrived in Metropolitan France. For example at the 1982 census, there were only 171,884 immigrants from Africa outside of the Maghreb (i.e. immigrants from all the African countries except Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) living in Metropolitan France (the European part of France), whereas there were already 1,168,104 Maghreban immigrants.

At the 2010 census, there were 1,641,667 Maghreban immigrants and 705,388 non-Maghreban African immigrants (of whom ca. 24,000 are Egyptians) living in Metropolitan France.

It's therefore very unlikely that the sub-Saharan African immigrants living in France have grand-children already. So the number of "3rd generation" sub-Saharan immigrants in France (an improper term, since by definition an immigrant can only be from the 1st generation) must be very few.
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Originally Posted by johnnypd View Post
Large scale migration from sub-Saharan Africa to the UK only really started after 1997 - before that, I'd imagine a significant proportion of the much smaller migrant numbers would be from the white colonial class, particularly those leaving S.Africa and Zimbabwe.
Non-Maghreban African immigrants in Metropolitan France:
- 1982: 171,884
- 1990: 275,182
- 1999: 393,289 (a number greatly underestimated; INSEE acknowledged that the 1999 census greatly underestimated the African immigrants)
- 2010: 705,388

So the numbers in France picked up in the 1990s, just like in the UK.
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Originally Posted by johnnypd View Post
Looking up the stats, in 2009 there were 798,800 Black Africans in the UK (immigrants and their offspring) -whereas in France immigrants alone accounted for 669,401 - not strictly Sub-Saharan, but non-Magrehbi African. Outdated stats, but I actually wouldn't be surprised if the total figure of Black Africans in France was 3 times the British number.
The 2011 UK census found that there lived in England & Wales 989,628 people with Black African ethnicity, 594,825 people with Black Caribbean ethnicity, 280,437 people with "other Black" ethnicity (??), 426,715 mixed White and Black Caribbean, and 165,974 mixed White and Black African.

On the other hand, at the 2009 French census, like I said in a previous post there were 656,716 sub-Saharan African immigrants in Metropolitan France, and 299,139 people from the French West Indies and Haiti.

In 2008, INSEE conducted a large scale survey to determine how many children of immigrants lived in Metropolitan France. It found out that 668,000 non-Maghreban African immigrants (this includes Egypt) lived in Metropolitan France, and that they had 570,000 children born on French soil. The number of grand-children born on French soil must be extremely small, because the same survey found that 88% of the non-Maghreban African immigrants arrived in France less than 30 years ago, and 97% arrived in France less than 40 years ago.

So there seem to be a ratio of 0.85 "2nd generation" non-Maghreban African immigrant per "1st generation" immigrant.

If we apply that to the 2009 census, taking only the sub-Saharan countries (i.e. leaving out the Egyptian and Libyan immigrants), then the number of 1st and 2nd generation sub-Saharan African immigrants living in France must be 1,215,000. If we add the very small number of "3rd generation" sub-Saharan African immigrants, we could reach 1,250,000 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation sub-Saharan African immigrants in Metropolitan France. Note that this figure includes people from mixed couples (like children of French White/Black African couples). According to the same survey, out of the 570,000 "2nd generation" sub-Saharan African immigrants, 35% were from mixed couples (i.e. only one parent was a sub-Saharan African immigrant).

In England & Wales, if we add up the Black African ethnicity, the "other Black" ethnicity, and the mixed White/Black African, we get 1,436,039, so in fact more than in Metropolitan France. Even if we exclude the "other Black" (but they must come from somewhere...), we would get 1,155,602 people, which is nearly the same as in Metropolitan France.

Now regarding the Black Caribbeans, we don't have data for the children and grand-children of Caribbean migrants in Metropolitan France. Given that the Caribbean migrants in Metropolitan France have arrived more than 20 years earlier than the sub-Saharan African immigrants, we can assume a higher ratio of children and grand-children. Comparing with the Maghreban immigrants, who arrived more or less at the same time as the Caribbean migrants, and for whom we have data, I'd say a ratio of 1.4 children and grand-children seems reasonable.

Considering that there were 299,139 people from the French West Indies and Haiti living in Metropolitan France in 2009, applying a 1.4 ratio means there would be approx. 420,000 children and grand-children of these people born and living in Metropolitan France (a significant part of whom are from mixed couples).

So in total that's probably about 720,000 people with Black Caribbean and mixed White/Black Caribbean ethnicities living in Metropolitan France in 2009. For comparison, in England & Wales in 2011 there were 1,021,540 people with Black Caribbean and mixed White/Black Caribbean ethnicities, which is significantly more than in Metropolitan France.

So overall, and despite the clichés, it seems there are more Black people in the UK than in Metropolitan France. That's of course Metropolitan France. If we include the entire France, then of course France has more Black people than the UK, because there lives approximately 1,200,000 Black and mixed Black people in Overseas France.
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Last edited by New Brisavoine; Jul 12, 2013 at 9:12 PM.
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  #138  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2013, 8:15 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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To sum it up:

Black and mixed White/Black people in France:
- Metropolitan France: ca. 2.0 million (in 2009)
- Overseas France: ca. 1.2 million (in 2012)

Black and mixed White/Black people in the UK:
- England & Wales: 2,457,579 (2011 census)
- Scotland and Northern Ireland: ??
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  #139  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2013, 9:04 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Paris, to me, has always seemed "blacker" than London, though it could be that the Metro/RER biases my observations, and perhaps the black population is more concentrated in Paris and inner suburbs compared to London.

Your numbers do show slightly more centralization of black popualtion in Paris compared to London, and I could see the Paris populations generally more centralized, because of the spatial makeup of the region compared to London.
Regarding Paris, this is where the Black immigrants and migrants live.

Sub-Saharan African immigrants in Greater Paris:
- 17.2% live in the City of Paris
- 47.4% live in the inner suburbs
- 35.3% live in the outer suburbs

Migrants from the French West Indies + Haitian immigrants in Greater Paris:
- 11.7% live in the City of Paris
- 49.7% live in the inner suburbs
- 38.6% live in the outer suburbs

For comparison, this is the total population (all ethnicities) in Greater Paris:
- 19.0% live in the City of Paris
- 37.5% live in the inner suburbs
- 43.4% live in the outer suburbs

As for Paris being "Blacker" than London, in the London LUZ (London metropolitan area) there were 1,419,213 Black and mixed White/Black people at the 2011 census. They made up 10.9% of the population. In Greater London alone they made up 15.6% of the population. In Inner London alone they made up 19.5% of the population.

In Greater Paris, using the same lengthy calculations that I have detailed in my previous post, I come to approximately 1.2 million Black and mixed White/Black people at the 2009 census. They made up 10.2% of the population of Greater Paris. In the city of Paris and the inner suburbs, they made up 11.3% of the population.

So it doesn't appear that Paris is "Blacker" than London, but it would be interesting to figure out where those distorted perceptions come from (Black immigration in London has accelerated exponentially in the 2000s, so obviously if people base their observations from their last visit to London in the early 2000s, the comparison with Paris will be distorted).
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Last edited by New Brisavoine; Jul 13, 2013 at 7:18 PM.
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  #140  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2013, 9:08 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Adding Paris and London:

Black and mixed White/Black people in France:
- Greater Paris: ca. 1.2 million (in 2009)
- rest of Metropolitan France: ca. 0.8 million (in 2009)
- Overseas France: ca. 1.2 million (in 2012)

Black and mixed White/Black people in the UK:
- London LUZ: 1,419,213 (2011 census)
- rest of England & Wales: 1,038,366 (2011 census)
- Scotland and Northern Ireland: ??

Regarding concentrations, 57.7% of the Black and mixed White/Black people in England & Wales concentrate in the London LUZ (the London metro area, which is made up of Greater London and 42 districts surrounding it). Approx. 60% of the Black and Mixed White/Black people in Metropolitan France concentrate in Greater Paris.
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