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  #61  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2015, 1:29 AM
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Gallant is really turning into a 1 term Premier; our 3rd in as many terms I think. The way things are going, unless the Tories come up with a solid contender, (and depending on what happens Federally), it could be an opening for the NDP or some other party to rise to leadership.
I'd say the Liberals are banking on the electorate having short-term memory (as is usually the case) and are getting a lot of their house cleaning out of the way earlier (see:school closures). I'm still bracing for a rise in the HST next spring following this fall's federal election. Time will tell if the Liberals smarten up and actually begin governing with their heads or if their entire term in office will be as mistake-filled as the first 10 months.

As for the PCs, they'll need a new leader by this time next year. Having less than two years for a new leader to get prepared for an election is not enough time.

As for the NDP...we'll see what Cardy can do with another three years, if indeed he plans on sticking as leader for that long. If he does stay I would expect a similar result popular vote-wise but more centered in Saint John and Fredericton. I expect Cardy would do what Coon did last election....throw all his eggs in one (riding) basket. If he doesn't stay then who knows how much of an impact the federal NDP rise will have provincially. Will have to wait and see in November.

Speaking of Coon, sitting in the legislature isn't a bad thing and only helps to solidify the Green's standing as NB's third party. They received a higher vote total in two ridings in particular (Kent North and Memramcook-Tantramar) due solely to the opposition to fracking, and it remains to be seen if these numbers will hold for 2018.

Lastly, I expect the People's Alliance to continue to slowly build momentum in fifth. Similar to Coon, I expect Austin to be elected in his Grand Lake seat in 2018. Remember that he was very nearly elected in 2014.

It'll be interesting to see how the parties fair in the upcoming Carleton byelection. I can't imagine Cardy attempts to run in the PC-hotbed of Woodstock, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the People's Alliance throw a strong candidate in in the hopes of sweeping up some PC supporters who may feel disenfranchised post-Alward.
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  #62  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2015, 1:47 AM
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ThreeHundredEight.com has these current projects for seat counts in Atlantic Canada in the upcoming election:

New Brunswick
  • Liberals - 4
  • Conservatives - 4
  • New Democrats - 2

Nova Scotia
  • Liberals - 6
  • Conservatives - 1
  • New Democrats - 4

Prince Edward Island
  • Liberals - 4

Newfoundland & Labrador
  • Liberals - 5
  • New Democrats - 2

Total:
  • Liberals - 19
  • Conservatives - 5
  • New Democrats - 8

Nationally, the seat projects currently are:

Conservatives - 127
New Democrats - 127
Liberals - 82
Bloc Quebecois - 1
Green party - 1
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  #63  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2015, 4:09 PM
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I genuinely like 308 and I think Grenier does a good job of aggregating polls given what he gets. In New Brunswick, IMO the following will probably occur in the federal election. These should be taken with a grain of salt, though, as it's still more than two months out:


http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

I think the aggregation model over estimates the NDP in Saint John and underestimates the Conservatives in Madawaska-Restigouche. I can't see how the NDP makes up enough votes at the expense of both the Liberals and Conservatives to win Saint John-Rothesay. I'm expecting this to be a Conservative hold.

In Madawaska I haven't seen any evidence that Valcourt will lose his seat. Despite what some may think of his ministerial file he's still a senior Cabinet Minister...can't see him losing this seat unless there's some serious movement on the ground there.

308's aggregation for Moncton and Miramichi looks to be spot on. I would be shocked if Goguen wins Moncton again. Wouldn't be as shocked if O'Neill-Gordon loses Miramichi. A lot of these real depend on how much vote split there is between the NDP and Liberals. In 2011 the NDP had a higher vote than the Liberals in many ridings and a lot depends on whether the NDP improve on that or if the Liberals return back to their pre-2011 numbers. Given 2015's relative strength of the NDP it's possible they cancel each other out and the Conservatives will hold on to a lot of these vote-splits, particularly in places in Miramichi and Madawaska.

I'm guessing that if the NDP make any improvements at all we'll see it most in Saint John, but it will be interesting to see if there is bleedover from Godin's riding into Miramichi, Beausejour, and Madawaska. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP improve their numbers at all.

I'm also interested to see how the Greens fare in some of these areas, particularly in Fredericton and Charlottetown, two places where they now have Provincial representatives (imagine saying that five years ago!). It's been confirmed that the Greens have had a major ground assault on Charlottetown recently and think they can do well there. I'd be surprised if Coon doesn't do similar things in Fredericton in support of the Federal Greens. The most recent Green Party AGM was held in Fredericton...in the event that the Greens do improve their numbers in these two ridings it will be interesting to see what happens to the other parties and where they gain those votes from.

For example, in 2011, the Greens garnered 2% of the vote in Charlottetown. The Liberals won this riding by less than 7% over the Conservatives (39% to 33%). In the event that the Greens gain between 3-10%, where do these votes come from? The NDP had 25% of the vote in 2011 in this riding...do the Greens take votes equally from the other three parties or from one in particular?

In Fredericton in 2011 the Conservatives won by roughly 20% over the NDP. In this riding the Greens received 4% of the vote. How high does the Green vote go in Fredericton? 5%? 7%? 10%? Their possible increase in support could determine these two ridings in 2015.

Edit - As it turns out, Bevan-Baker's federal riding would be Malpeque (where he ran in 2011). If that's the case, Easter for the Liberals won that by a mere 3% with the Greens receiving 4% of the vote. It's a bit odd how two of the Green's strongest areas in the country could be islands (Vancouver & Prince Edward).

Last edited by JHikka; Aug 8, 2015 at 4:21 PM.
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  #64  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2015, 10:18 PM
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The conservatives not voting for Harper this time, that I've spoken to, have all declared their support for the NDP. These new NDP votes will not be splitting with the liberals as they were not liberal votes to begin with. We may be under-estimating Moncton's NDP surge.
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  #65  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2015, 4:09 AM
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The Greens actually have provincial representation just outside of Charlottetown in the Malpeque riding. Is Wayne Easter running again?
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  #66  
Old Posted Oct 17, 2015, 3:13 PM
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I'm surprised there hasn't been any federal election talk on this thread. The Canada section has been full of it (in both senses of the phrase).

In any event, my prediction for Atlantic Canada is:

LIB - 24 seats
CPC - 4 seats
NDP - 4 seats

Don't forget to vote everyone! It doesn't matter if you are blue or red, this is an important election for the country and/or your party. I sense change is in the air.......
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  #67  
Old Posted Oct 17, 2015, 7:36 PM
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I think most of us have been doing our political talk on the main page. The Atlantic contingent certainly has been holding our own out there, so there hasn't been a need to talk as much here.
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  #68  
Old Posted Oct 18, 2015, 8:49 PM
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Final Prediction:

NB
CPC - 4
NDP - 1
LIB - 5

NS
CPC - 1
NDP - 2
LIB - 8

PEI
CPC - 0
NDP - 0
LIB - 4

NFLD
CPC - 0
NDP - 1
LIB - 6

FINAL
CPC - 5
NDP - 4
LIB - 23


I'm expecting the Greens to do well in Fredericton (maybe ~15%?) and push around some numbers for the other parties. I still have it as lean Liberal but depending on vote splits could still go Conservative. Saint John I have as a barely lean Conservative. Vote splits, this time by the NDP, may keep the Liberals from winning the riding. I'm having a hard time believing that Leslie will lose her Halifax seat, so I have the NS number at 2 for the NDP. Colchester and Central Nova are going to be tight, tight races....and if the Conservatives manage to win both early it'll be a good sign for them for the rest of the night across the country. I'm thinking Conservative Minority tomorrow night...by the slimmest of margins.
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  #69  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2015, 12:06 PM
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Wow, a red sweep in Atlantic Canada. I don't think anyone saw that coming. Between NDP strongholds in Halifax, Northern NB and NF&L, and Tory strongholds in South and Eastern NB, there should have been something going to the others. Atlantic Canada sent a very loud ABH message, and lead the way for the sweep.

It'll be interesting to see what happens going forward. With 25/32 MPs, that is a strong voting block (enough to make or break the Liberal majority in the HOC), if our Atlantic Canadian MP's can work together. Hopefully that can mean we'll see some Ottawa loving in the next few years.

Looking at the 308 polls and TCTC, I was really expecting Saint John and NB SW to be closer than they were. Hell I was expecting NB SW to be solid blue, but it went red and never looked back. Fundy Royal should have been solid blue from the start, but other than a few flips here and there, it stayed red most of the night.

The only riding that went as I expected was Tobique Mactaquac. I figured it would be close, and it was for the longest time; probably while the rural and advanced votes were counted. I suspect that Woodstock tipped the scales; once it was counted, that pulled it Red and it never looked back.

Does Elections Canada release polling station results? I'd be curious to see how the station breakdown went in some of those ridings.
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  #70  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2015, 1:39 PM
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Strong indications from Dominic Leblanc today that Justin's infrastructure bonanza will be used for a partial replacement of the Petitcodiac River causeway and for twinning of Highway 11 to the "north". I'm not sure how far north he was talking about.

In any event, this sounds like many hundreds of millions of dollars in federal investment on the way........
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  #71  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2015, 7:51 PM
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Strong indications from Dominic Leblanc today that Justin's infrastructure bonanza will be used for a partial replacement of the Petitcodiac River causeway and for twinning of Highway 11 to the "north". I'm not sure how far north he was talking about.

In any event, this sounds like many hundreds of millions of dollars in federal investment on the way........
Funding is already committed for twinning 11 to Richibucto, and the province decided against twinning any further, I wouldn't be surprised if this funding goes toward a super 2 from Kouchibouguac to Miramichi, some of which is already committed.

And I know I've said this a million times in other threads and been shot down, but I don't think it's implausible some of this could be headed for Route 7, at least around Grand Bay.

Exciting either way!
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  #72  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2015, 8:03 PM
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Strong indications from Dominic Leblanc today that Justin's infrastructure bonanza will be used for a partial replacement of the Petitcodiac River causeway .
Excellent news, further restoring the river.
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  #73  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2015, 11:41 PM
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Funding is already committed for twinning 11 to Richibucto, and the province decided against twinning any further, I wouldn't be surprised if this funding goes toward a super 2 from Kouchibouguac to Miramichi, some of which is already committed.

And I know I've said this a million times in other threads and been shot down, but I don't think it's implausible some of this could be headed for Route 7, at least around Grand Bay.

Exciting either way!
Brian Gallant has clarified a few times that no decision has been made on plans for highway 11 north or Richibucto and that twinning is still on the table.

Either way, looking forward to future news. Will we see any action over the next few years, or will it simply get announced and be debated for the next 5-10 years? Would love to see accelerated action on highway 11.
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  #74  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2015, 2:53 PM
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And I know I've said this a million times in other threads and been shot down, but I don't think it's implausible some of this could be headed for Route 7, at least around Grand Bay.
I would love to see them resurface the rest of the four-lane section between Grand Bay and Saint John; the part they just finished is a massive improvement over its prior state.

Would also be nice to see it twinned between Grand Bay and the Welsford bypass, bringing it to four lanes right through to the edge of the Gagetown training area. I could tolerate the construction noise for a while.
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  #75  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2016, 8:00 PM
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Two out of Three out now.

Mel Norton of Saint John is not reoffering for mayor this spring. That means that Moncton and SJ are getting new mayors one way or another.

I think I heard that last election, Brad said he probably wouldn't reoffer in Freddy; but in light of the other cities definitely changing (and his recent rumblings of not moving), I'd dare say he will run again, and probably have a decent chance of winning again.
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  #76  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2016, 8:14 PM
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That's too bad. Norton was good for SJ, just like George LeBlanc was a strong mayor for Moncton. They will be missed.

I think Dawn Arnold is a lock for Moncton mayor (if she offers). Is there an obvious heir apparent in SJ???

re: Brad Woodside - hasn't he already been annointed mayor-for-life???
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  #77  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2016, 9:32 PM
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Mel Norton has been touted as a potential PC leader, no?
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  #78  
Old Posted Jan 19, 2016, 1:38 AM
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I think Dawn Arnold is a lock for Moncton mayor (if she offers). Is there an obvious heir apparent in SJ???
At this stage? Seemingly, no. Greg Norton, Mel's brother, may run now that his brother is stepping aside and left a decent reputation. Others on the council (referring to older members of council) are too toxic and their names carry too many negative connotations to be in any serious contention.

Likely someone will come out of left field and run. If they do, municipal elections aren't until the fall, so i'd anticipate candidates to come forward in the late spring/early summer.

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Mel Norton has been touted as a potential PC leader, no?
That's the belief right now. The PCs have been in no great hurry to replace their interim leader. Norton would likely run in Saint John Harbour if he were to run, which would give the Saint John-area potential PC MLAs Norton, Flemming, and Higgs, and not including Holder, Savoie, and Shepherd...pretty strong group, IMO.

But that's counting chickens before they hatch.
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  #79  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2016, 9:45 PM
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Given the recent events in Sussex, it seems rather incongruous that Premier Brian Gallant is consorting in Davos Switzerland with his pals Justin and Dominic rather than commiserating with the locals back home.

It's pretty poor optics if you ask me. After all, I'm sure the billionaires and celebrities in Davos couldn't give a rats ass over the demise of the potash mine in Sussex. Gallant will accomplish nothing by being there.......
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  #80  
Old Posted Jan 20, 2016, 10:45 PM
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Mayor-For-Life Brad is playing cagey about the upcoming election. He's hinting he may just run for Councillor and not for Mayor.

At the moment, we do have 2 other people who have thrown their hats into the ring.

Quote:
A Fredericton businessman has announced he will be running for mayor in the May municipal election.

Malcolm Cummings has owned City Motel on Regent Street for the past 45 years. The 80-year-old joins City Councillor Mike O'Brien who has also announced he will put his name on the ballot.

Mayor Brad Woodside has said he will be running for re-election, he's just not sure whether it will be for mayor or councillor.
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