Future Transit System Ideas - Ottawa/Gatineau | Fantasy

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

The Victoria Diversion right of way from building-line to building-line is much more generous than what is available to work with on the bottlenecked portion of Montreal Road.

Not that it matters, because urban transit doesn't matter at all in this shell of a city.

I agree, and we have squeezed in cycle tracks into Montreal Road as well, which is not offered on this street. Also notice that buildings are below the site line of the trains. Do we really want to restrict Montreal Road to two storey buildings?

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Elevated is cheaper than underground. But it's not cheaper than just building on the surface. If the website Confederation Line was built elevated or tunneled, it's very likely the line would never have left the Greenbelt, because of cost.

As for any line along Rideau and Montreal, it doesn't have enough demand to justify grade separation and it never will. It would be a tram replacing several bus routes. Just tunnel where necessary and run the rest in the middle of the road. See Eglinton Crosstown or Hurontario or Waterloo Ion for inspiration.

I'll never understand the fascination in this forum with insisting on every single line being 100% grade separated. Especially given how cheap the residents of this city are. Champagne tastes on beer budgets. But also who wants to waste time going up and down escalators just to go a few blocks?

Why would we ever waste money on a tramway, which would be in mixed traffic for part of the corridor? The days of new streetcar routes have been gone since the beginning of the car age. And then further restrict urban bus routes to places like Overbrook, another dumb transfer for short distance riders. When segregated bus lanes are not even possible, a tramway makes no sense.

So, it is buses or grade separation. There is nothing else.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Why would we ever waste money on a tramway, which would be in mixed traffic for part of the corridor? The days of new streetcar routes have been gone since the beginning of the car age. And then further restrict urban bus routes to places like Overbrook, another dumb transfer for short distance riders. When segregated bus lanes are not even possible, a tramway makes no sense.

So, it is buses or grade separation. There is nothing else.

In that case, we'll have buses. There is no provincial or federal government that is going to pay $300M/km for Rideau-Montreal or Bank St for that matter. If those streets justify full grade separation, then they'd have to provide the same for virtually every major avenue in the GTA by that logic.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In that case, we'll have buses. There is no provincial or federal government that is going to pay $300M/km for Rideau-Montreal or Bank St for that matter. If those streets justify full grade separation, then they'd have to provide the same for virtually every major avenue in the GTA by that logic.

There will be no more rail in Ottawa for at least a generation based on current rail performance that has driven away ridership. So, it will be buses, but even Phase 2 will likely wreck the bus network further. The future is not rosy.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

There will be no more rail in Ottawa for at least a generation based on current rail performance that has driven away ridership. So, it will be buses, but even Phase 2 will likely wreck the bus network further. The future is not rosy.

It's settled then. We can shut this forum down.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's settled then. We can shut this forum down.

Perhaps. We are going around in circles.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

It is the city planners and developers who design our suburbs, not individuals.

They design them (or allow them to be designed) that way, but it's the NIMBYism of incumbent property owners who keep them that way.

It's hard to fault the planners and builders for building to what they think is fiscally sensisible and in keeping with public tastes at that time. (Although we should be insisting on more adaptable street grids from the beginning.)

But it's very easy to fault NIMBYists who prevent our idea of what made sense in 1962 or 82 or 2002 from ever changing.

[Richard Eade]

I’ve been trying to get the gist of the various arguments in this thread. It seems to me that there are (at least) two principal, well entrenched, opinions:

• Public transit is a service that should provide fast, convenient, transportation for nearly everyone, at any cost; and
• Public transit is an expense that must justify itself to exist. If there is no solid business case for it, then it must be eliminated.

Yes, I have stated the two sides in their extreme, but that is how the statements have been coming across. Neither of the sides seems to be considering that there is middle ground. And yet, both arguments have elements of truth. Points, buried within the hyperbole, that need to be considered.

There is a finite amount of money in the pot for transit, and that is unlikely to increase much, given the propensity of politicians to look upon public transit as a major expense which provides them few votes. On the other hand, they get many votes when they limit, or reduce, transit spending. Even when usual transit usage was around 20% of the population, that left 80% who may have had little regard for it.

However, a limiting, unreliable, transit system that poorly serves those who try to use it, is likely to drop ridership as it continues down a ‘death-spiral’. As the system gets worse for its customers, they will abandon it. As ridership declines, service will get further trimmed, making it even less desirable.

So, dogmatic statements aside, what are possible solutions for improving the service, while keeping costs constrained?

Afterall, this is a thread about the future of transit in Ottawa/Gatineau.

[Truenorth00]

Our transit system doesn't exist to provide, "fast, convenient, transportation for nearly everyone". I wish it was. Our system was (and is) designed to mostly enable commuters to get to work at peak hours when the roads are full. A distant second goal is basic transport across the city for those who can't or don't want to drive. That's it. And residents have consistently voted in governments that don't aspire to more and largely aim to meet the above two goals for as little in cost as possible.

Talking about transit without discussing the political attitudes of this city is pointless. Funding doesn't happen in a vacuum. It's a direct result of what politicians perceive to be the priorities of citizens. Compare political attitudes to transit in the GTA and Ottawa and you'll find that Ottawa is closer in mentality to Mississauga than it is to Toronto. So we really shouldn't expect substantial ambitions on transit. Torontonians will not tolerate substantial cuts to the TTC. In Ottawa, most residents couldn't care less if tens of thousands of hours of service are cut.

Given the above, the future is basically Stage 2 and quibbling about whether we can get buses every 15 mins during peak. That's about it. We won't be seeing much more higher order rail. Maybe the odd Transitway as and when the city can afford it. If we're really lucky, Gatineau gets moving on some LRT before 2030.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In that case, we'll have buses. There is no provincial or federal government that is going to pay $300M/km for Rideau-Montreal or Bank St for that matter. If those streets justify full grade separation, then they'd have to provide the same for virtually every major avenue in the GTA by that logic.

Not to cross threads but if instead of $40 billion for batteries and other EV subsidies we spent $100 billion on transit and inter city rail in this country we could get have more grade separated transit.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Not to cross threads but if instead of $40 billion for batteries and other EV subsidies we spent $100 billion on transit and inter city rail in this country we could get have more grade separated transit.

We're spending $40B on battery manufacturing subsidies because it secures $100B in accompanying manufacturing investment and all the jobs that go with that. Particularly beneficial because it's an export sector. We aren't investing those billions to cut emissions here. We're investing those billions so our auto sector can sell cars in the US. No different than the billions the government is spending on oil pipelines to facilitate oil exports. As much as I'd love to see $40B spent on transit, I'd be the first to admit the economic benefits aren't the same as spending $40B on battery manufacturing.

The actual federal subsidies on EV adoption in Canada, are $550M for vehicles and $680M for charging infrastructure, from 2022 through to 2025. By comparison, the feds are budgeting $15B from 2023 through to 2030, with $3B per year from 2026/2027 onwards. And that's just federal. Ontario has no consumer EV subsidies and is planning on spending $70B on transit over the next 10 years, as per the latest budget. I don't think it's miniscule grants going to EV buyers that are holding back transit development.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Richard Eade

So, dogmatic statements aside, what are possible solutions for improving the service, while keeping costs constrained?

There are no solutions with budget constraints below inflation.

If LRT continues to under perform in ridership, it will be a drag on the overall transit budget. At 40%-50% of day one ridership, and a low chance of significant growth (ridership growth was part of the justification for building LRT and its financing), it will be hard to build a sustainable transit network that doesn't continue to bleed money and ultimately ridership.

WFH and ticking off the entire commuter market will limit significant further recovery.

Any transit system that wants to grow ridership needs investment. This is a universal truth.

We better hope that Phase 2 is more effective (actually moves passengers faster than buses) with much fewer breakdowns. But if the same problems of Phase 1 (slow and unreliable service) extend to Phase 2, all bets are off.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Given the above, the future is basically Stage 2 and quibbling about whether we can get buses every 15 mins during peak. That's about it. We won't be seeing much more higher order rail. Maybe the odd Transitway as and when the city can afford it. If we're really lucky, Gatineau gets moving on some LRT before 2030.

For the most part I agree, but unless Phase 2 at least meets expectations, I see little future rapid transit investment. Transitways are now a thing of the past in Ottawa and with the current employment decline downtown, I can't see Gatineau LRT moving forward any time soon. What is the business case for it?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

For the most part I agree, but unless Phase 2 at least meets expectations, I see little future rapid transit investment.

Regardless of how Stage 2 works out, there's no substantial business case for higher order rail transit outside the Greenbelt. It's all diminishing returns. Costs go up. Ridership gains don't go up as much as the costs. Anything that happens beyond Stage 2 is simply about politics.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Transitways are now a thing of the past in Ottawa and with the current employment decline downtown,

BRT in various forms are still there and are being built. Just not through the downtown core.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I can't see Gatineau LRT moving forward any time soon. What is the business case for it?

Gatineau has the same business case as Ottawa Stage One: eliminating hundreds of buses per day through the downtown core while increasing capacity. At minimum, it's a better returning proposal than anything on the Ottawa side at the moment.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Regardless of how Stage 2 works out, there's no substantial business case for higher order rail transit outside the Greenbelt. It's all diminishing returns. Costs go up. Ridership gains don't go up as much as the costs. Anything that happens beyond Stage 2 is simply about politics.



BRT in various forms are still there and are being built. Just not through the downtown core.



Gatineau has the same business case as Ottawa Stage One: eliminating hundreds of buses per day through the downtown core while increasing capacity. At minimum, it's a better returning proposal than anything on the Ottawa side at the moment.

Diminishing returns is a reasonable assessment, however the Gatineau business case is not as good as you suggest, since Gatineau LRT only serves the Aylmer sector. I expect that Barrhaven, and Kanata-Stittsville have more population growth potential and the latter has more employment potential. The current Moodie Drive terminus is a terrible location for serving the Kanata population and employment node.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

The current Moodie Drive terminus is a terrible location for serving the Kanata population and employment node.

I totally agree. An extension to Terry Fox should have been prioritized over the extension to Trim Rd, but the provincial and federal governments thought otherwise.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

I totally agree. An extension to Terry Fox should have been prioritized over the extension to Trim Rd, but the provincial and federal governments thought otherwise.

Trim was cheap and brought in some new development. That's why it was thrown on. It was budgeted at $160M. At the time, Moodie to Terry Fox was estimated at $710M. They could have extended to Eagleson, but that forces a 1-stop transfer on all the DND workers. That's probably why a Trip Extension was pushed over Eagleson.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Trim was cheap and brought in some new development. That's why it was thrown on. It was budgeted at $160M. At the time, Moodie to Terry Fox was estimated at $710M. They could have extended to Eagleson, but that forces a 1-stop transfer on all the DND workers. That's probably why a Trip Extension was pushed over Eagleson.

DND workers have to transfer anyway. Very few will walk or bike from Moodie to DND. We could have provided DND bus service from Eagleson that could hit a much smaller Moodie on the way.

[Ottawacurious]

From Cathy Curry's newsletter. She's been writing about BRT in Kanata North.

Many of you have written to me about the increased development up March Road and the challenges with March Road itself. I let you know that I would be meeting with City staff to receive an update. Last week, Councillor Kelly and I met with City staff from multiple departments to continue to advocate for the widening of March Road with Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) up March Road. Staff shared that they are aware of the increase in growth in Kanata North towards West Carleton and the need for impacts of the growth to be addressed.

In a nutshell, this is what we learned. All studies and analyses are continuing to be done on the widening and BRT projects, despite the lack of funding for the work to be done. They continue to complete all that would need to be done so that when there is funding, the projects can begin. They explained that there is only one type of funding that pays for road widenings – development charges that come from the developments as they are built, unless other funds are found. New arterial roads tend to be funded from provincial or federal infrastructure grants. March Road is not a new road. Major transit projects (LRT and BRT) tend to come from provincial or federal transportation grants. So, we learned that one challenge is funding.

The second challenge is based on what the Transportation Master Plan (TMP) has in it. The TMP will determine the City’s priority transportation projects. The new TMP is still being written as various consultation periods continue. More consultation/engagement opportunities will be launched in April as part of the Transportation Master Plan Review. Residents will be able to share what forms of travel they use, their travel patterns and their mobility needs. We will be sure to remind you when this part of the consultation is launched.

[Ottawacurious]

Gower: It's time for a bus-centred rethink of transit to Barrhaven and Stittsville
Per kilometre, the cost to build bus rapid transit is a fraction of the cost of rail. The infrastructure can usually be built in a fraction of the time too.

Author of the article:Glen Gower
Published Apr 17, 2023 • Last updated Apr 17, 2023 • 3 minute read
https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/go...nd-stittsville

It’s time to rethink our plans for bringing light rail all the way to Barrhaven and Stittsville, and focus instead on new bus rapid transit (BRT) infrastructure.

That’s going to be a controversial idea for many people. For the past two decades we’ve been focused on trains instead of buses, but with rising construction costs and changing travel patterns post-pandemic, the cost of light rail is getting harder to justify — even with help from other levels of government.

This is not in any way to suggest that the current light rail projects were a mistake. The O-Train will move tens of thousands of passengers through our city for decades to come. And rail may be needed in the future toward the south and west — just not now.

The current construction of Stage 2 light rail will bring the O-Train south to the airport and Limebank Road, east to Trim Road, west to Moodie Drive, and south to Algonquin College. The southern extensions should open later this year, with the entire project scheduled to be finished late in 2026.

The latest estimate to extend Stage 3 light rail to Kanata and Stittsville is $2.5 billion, and $4 billion to build it to Barrhaven. Even if we were to begin construction today, it could still be a decade until these lines are ready to go.

Bus rapid transit could be the solution. I’m thinking separated, bus-only infrastructure like the kilometres of transitway we’ve had in Ottawa for years. (Our transitway system was the envy of many cities when it was first introduced in the 1980s.)

Per kilometre, the cost to build BRT is a fraction of the cost of rail. The infrastructure can usually be built in a fraction of the time too. The capacity is less (bus rapid transit moves up to 9,000 people an hour versus 18,000 for light rail) but it could be better matched to the new hybrid-work commuting demand.

It’s an approach other cities are warming up to. In 2021, construction started on the South Dade TransitWay in Miami, Fla. It’s a 32-km busway with 14 stations, scheduled to be completed in 2024. Level crossing gates and signal priority ensure the buses will never stop at a traffic light. Total cost: about $370 million U.S. (In comparison, the Stage 2 light rail project currently under construction is around $4.7 billion for 44 kilometres and 24 stations.)

I can see a case for extending light rail from Moodie Drive as far as Eagleson Road or Terry Fox Drive, then connecting to a bus-only transitway in two directions: north along March Road toward the technology park, and west towards Stittsville. In the south, a few improvements (bridges, priority traffic signals, etc.) could segregate buses along Woodroffe Avenue, linking deep into Barrhaven via the existing transitway.

With the money saved, we could then move up the timeframe to (finally) build a transitway east to South Orléans. And we can accelerate the timeline for dedicated transit priority lanes and traffic signals along east-west corridors such as Hazeldean-Robertson-Baseline-Heron, and Carling Avenue.

The price tag for all of this would still be in the hundreds of millions of dollars, but it’s a far cry from the billions we would need for Stage 3 light rail. We would see a massive improvement to trip times and improved access to transit. It would jump-start our efforts to reduce car dependency, which would reduce greenhouse gases and lower congestion.

Over the next two years, Ottawa Council will be finalizing its Transportation Master Plan and Long Range Financial Plan for transit. So, the timing is right to revisit past decisions and move quickly to improve transit in Ottawa.

Glen Gower is the city councillor for Stittsville, ward 6. He is chair of the city’s transit commission.