US city populations - which happens first?

[Pavlov's Dog]

Simple question. Which of the following happens first?

[chris08876]

My moneys on Baltimore based on the current list.

NYC can be ruled out. That will take a while. Chicago... nope. It would only need like 70-80k more for Baltimore and possibly some of the growth impacting the DC metro could aid in the core rejuvenating. All it would take is a nice gentrification spree to make that happen, also assuming Baltimore gains some nice tenants in "X" sector, could jump start a job boom. I think it has the best chance (quickest).

Maybe Detroit second if something magical happens.

Of course this is all based on luck and economic conditions. I'll roll the dice on Baltimore.

[skyscraperpage17]

Of the choices, I originally selected Houston at 4 million. However, after further thought, I definitely think Baltimore at 700,000 will happen sooner than later.

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Maybe Detroit second if something magical happens.

There's no magic in Detroit. There's some money and pop culture, and experienced businessmen.
If you're an entrepreneur / developer seeking easy profit, that's the spot at the moment.

You know... Excuse the gross analogy, but it's bit like creepy porn producers in show business over LA. Their crappy business is even far more profitable than that of Disney/Pixar trying hard to always feature spectacular visual effects.
Cause it costs nothing much to produce, and it easily sells stuff all round the world.

Capitalism...

[ChiSoxRox]

Houston is currently at 2.3 million and gaining 20k-40k. For it to hit 4 million is almost doubling its population. Where is 1.7 million people going to go? Unless the city annexes just about all of suburban Harris County, hitting 4 million seems unphysical.

Another vote for Baltimore, although I could see annexation powering Columbus or Charlotte to those goals. (Indianapolis is getting boxed in so I don't see it getting there.)

Seattle and Denver are densifying quite nicely, but my gut is that both will hit a tipping point of nimbyism and pricing out (especially for Seattle) that will apply the brakes.

[BG918]

Denver was estimated at ~682,000 in 2015. There is a good amount of densification happening but I don’t think the current zoning will allow a major increase for awhile. Denver’s population has already shown signs of a plateau as the greenfield area of the city in Stapleton and Green Valley Ranch nears total build out in the next 5 years. Unless there is a major zoning change I don’t see 900k happening for a long time.

[jd3189]

I'm surprised I haven't heard much about Baltimore's growth. I hope it continues to do well.

[toddguy]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Houston is currently at 2.3 million and gaining 20k-40k. For it to hit 4 million is almost doubling its population. Where is 1.7 million people going to go? Unless the city annexes just about all of suburban Harris County, hitting 4 million seems unphysical.

Another vote for Baltimore, although I could see annexation powering Columbus or Charlotte to those goals. (Indianapolis is getting boxed in so I don't see it getting there.)

Seattle and Denver are densifying quite nicely, but my gut is that both will hit a tipping point of nimbyism and pricing out (especially for Seattle) that will apply the brakes.

Actually Columbus has annexed very little land in the last 20 years. The 'annexation land grab' that started in the fifties has pretty much ended for the city. Most of the growth has been infill on previously annexed land and densifying already built up areas.

After voting, I think now that Washington might hit 800,000 first.

[austlar1]

Houston has to hit 3,000,000 first. 4,000,000 will probably never happen. LA has been toying with the magic 4,000,000 for decades. It is an elusive goal.

[MolsonExport]

Wheeling, 900,000

[Sun Belt]

Baltimore population estimate of around 614,000, only 86,000 from hitting it's 700,000 target. That's not really much of a feat -- Baltimore gained 86,000 just before Houston hit 4 million, Phoenix hit 3 million and Charlotte is just shy of 1.2 million!!

With that said, my vote is for Baltimore because it's a whole lot easier to gain 86,000 than it is 1.5 million.

[James Bond Agent 007]

There needs to be an option, "Some of these will happen at the same time."

[Kngkyle]

Are these just some arbitrary goal posts you came up with?

[AviationGuy]

Surprised that Austin isn't on the list. It's going to hit 1 million in the city proper very soon. Estimated 2017 population is 967,000.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Houston is currently at 2.3 million and gaining 20k-40k. For it to hit 4 million is almost doubling its population. Where is 1.7 million people going to go? Unless the city annexes just about all of suburban Harris County, hitting 4 million seems unphysical.

Another vote for Baltimore, although I could see annexation powering Columbus or Charlotte to those goals. (Indianapolis is getting boxed in so I don't see it getting there.)

Seattle and Denver are densifying quite nicely, but my gut is that both will hit a tipping point of nimbyism and pricing out (especially for Seattle) that will apply the brakes.

Geez, you're in Fairbanks? How much snow is on the ground outside?

Way too cold this time of year.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

Surprised that Austin isn't on the list. It's going to hit 1 million in the city proper very soon. Estimated 2017 population is 967,000.

That would have been too straightforward. Austin will get to a million within a couple of years.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Are these just some arbitrary goal posts you came up with?

For the most part they are extrapolation of trends. I thought the topic would incite some good discussion on urbanism and societal trends.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

There needs to be an option, "Some of these will happen at the same time."

I could add that to the poll but which do you think will happen at the same time? By same time do you mean same year or same decade?

I could also give an option that none of these will ever happen. Society might change massively and cities will lose favor. An epidemic might wipe out a major proportion of the population and a city is the last place you want to be in that kind of scenario.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Baltimore population estimate of around 614,000, only 86,000 from hitting it's 700,000 target. That's not really much of a feat -- Baltimore gained 86,000 just before Houston hit 4 million, Phoenix hit 3 million and Charlotte is just shy of 1.2 million!!

With that said, my vote is for Baltimore because it's a whole lot easier to gain 86,000 than it is 1.5 million.

The Houston one was the one that was hardest to set.

Baltimore has lost population most years since 1950 when it was at 949,000. Is it still declining, stabilizing or actually growing significantly? It has a lot going for it but it also has some massive challenges to overcome to start increasing population again by the thousands per year to get back to 700,000.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by austlar1

Houston has to hit 3,000,000 first. 4,000,000 will probably never happen. LA has been toying with the magic 4,000,000 for decades. It is an elusive goal.

4 million could happen but it's gonna take a while. Short of annexing the ETJ, it will probably take 50 years.