Move to Portland, and live where?
Metro predicts 55,000 new homes will be needed by 2030
By Jim Redden
The Portland Tribune, Jul 31, 2007
Portland will need the equivalent of 11 more South Waterfront developments to house all the people expected to move here by 2030.
The city is expected to add more than 125,000 people over the next 23 years, according to the most recent population projections from Metro, the regional government charged with managing growth in the metropolitan area — pushing the city’s population from about 562,000 to more than 688,400 residents in just over two decades.
According to the U.S. census, Portland currently averages 2.3 residents per home, meaning that nearly 55,000 new homes will need to be built by 2030 for the additional residents.
That’s approximately the same as building 11 more of the central district developments in the South Waterfront urban renewal area, the new neighborhood dominated by condominium towers that is rising along the west bank of the Willamette River just south of the Ross Island Bridge.
SoWa, as it is known, is expected to have up to 5,000 housing units when it is completely built.
Just how many more homes can be built without seriously degrading Portland’s livability is a serious question. Many residents in different parts of the city already are complaining about infill projects they feel are too big for their existing neighborhoods.
Commissioner Sam Adams acknowledged the concerns when he spoke to the City Club about transportation funding issues earlier this month.
Adams told the long-standing civic organization that instead of spreading the coming growth throughout the city, new development should be concentrated within a quarter-mile of all existing and to-be-planned MAX light-rail and Portland streetcar stops.
“That will be a huge task but a worthwhile task. Why? Because it will simultaneously encourage responsible, transit-supportive development while protecting our existing single-family neighborhoods from undue growth,” he said.
Is such a goal realistic? Former Portland Mayor Bud Clark supports the concept of transit-oriented development but worries that the pace of growth is overwhelming the city’s planning efforts.
“I’m not as optimistic as I used to be. What I see is development happening everywhere, not just where it would seem to make sense,” said Clark, who lives in Northwest Portland and still owns the Goose Hollow Inn, 1927 S.W. Jefferson St.
Adams believes that new streetcar lines can attract much of the new growth, noting that private businesses have invested approximately $2.4 billion along the existing lines. But Adams admits he is concerned about the slow pace of intense development along any of TriMet’s light-rail lines within the city limits.
Although some large condominium projects have been built in the Goose Hollow area, few such projects are being discussed for sites along the North Interstate Avenue and Interstate 84 lines. Because of that, Adams has asked the Portland Office of Transportation, which he oversees, to study zoning and other obstacles to such projects.
Some public subsidies rankle
Simply removing bureaucratic obstacles may not be enough to persuade developers to spend the millions of dollars necessary for such projects.
In the past, the City Council and Portland Development Commission have used public subsidies — including property tax breaks and infrastructure improvements — to encourage such dense mixed-use developments as SoWa and the Pearl District.
Public opinion now seems to oppose such subsidies, however.
Many Portlanders who responded to the Community Vision Project initiated by Mayor Tom Potter criticized the city for supporting expensive condominium and apartment buildings. The citizen committee working on the project, also known as VisionPDX, will present its report to the council Sept. 19.
An early summary of public comments noted that a large number of people think “the tram/South Waterfront/North Macadam development (not to mention the Pearl, which seems to have become a verb, as in ‘to Pearlize’) was a total waste of money.”
Transit lines made a draw
Several projects are under way to determine how to encourage a greater range of mixed-use projects along transit lines.
The Portland Planning Bureau is launching an update of the city’s comprehensive plan, a state-mandated blueprint intended to guide future development within the city’s limits.
It also is preparing to update the Central City Plan, which guides development downtown and on the inner east side.
Metro is conducting a review of its existing growth policies. Called the New Look, the review is intended to determine how to implement Metro’s 2040 Growth Concept, which calls for new development to be concentrated in centers along major transportation lines.
Metro Councilor Carl Hostika said the New Look could result in policies that help achieve Adams’ call for development concentrated along transit lines.
“Basically, we could have a series of mini-Pearl Districts located at transit stops. That would be better than expecting all neighborhoods in the city to absorb equal shares of the growth,” Hostika said.
All of these projects will take a year or more to complete, however. In the meantime, if Metro is right, Portland’s population already is on track to grow by around one-fifth by 2030.
jimredden@portlandtribune.com
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/...82928721478400
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It'll be interesting to see how Portland chooses to approach this issue since other cities around the country will inevitably try to copy the solution.
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