The Midwest, where millenials go to retire!

[pdxtex]

perusing realtor.com this morning, i was looking at their 2017 housing forecast and their 2nd prediction was midwest cities will be hotbeds for millennial homebuyers. Specifically...."Midwestern cities are anticipated to continue to beat the national average in millennial purchase market share in 2017 with Madison, Wis.; Columbus, Ohio; Omaha, Neb.; Des Moines, Iowa; and Minneapolis, leading the pack. This year, average millennial market share in these markets is 42 percent, far higher than the U.S. average of 38 percent. With strong affordability in 15 of the 19 largest Midwestern markets, realtor.com® expects this trend to continue in 2017 even as interest rates increase".....so does that mean the dream of the 90s is no longer the pacific northwest, but rather the midwest? Portland seems to have effectively priced bohemia out of the city limits and word on the street is the Ohio valley and Great Lakes is the new hotness for young creatives. This makes me pleased. Discuss!

[ChargerCarl]

Question for Chicago/midwest friends on this board: why isn't Chicago growing? It seems to have all the urban amenities that coastal cities offer + low prices. Whats going on?

I went there once few years ago and loved it.

[Steely Dan]

^ it's a tale of two cities.

global chicago IS growing.

but ghetto chicago is emptying out even faster.

and the mexican immigation deluge that fueled chicago's surprising growth in the '90s has greatly slowed.


it's the same shit as last decade when downtown chicago grew faster than any other US downtown, but the city still lost 200,000 people overall.

the good in chicago keeps getting better, the bad in chicago keeps getting worse, and there's still just more bad than good overall. it's a GIANT city.

if i were the head of a working class family living in a neighborhood like austin or auburn gresham, i'd try to get the fuck out of chicago too.

[pdxtex]

Chicago's central, white population is growing but its middle class black population is declining rapidly. I think were seeing that trend happen in other northern industrial ciites also. The great migration is effectively reversing and northern blacks are moving back to the south or making lateral moves to safer regional cities.

[dave8721]

It just means millennials are buying in those markets (because they can) while renting in more expensive coastal markets.

[mhays]

Realtor.com presumably doesn't say that lots of millennials are moving to the Midwest, though they're apparently staying in larger numbers in some cases. The point is that the millennials who are there can buy there more easily than the typical millennial in more-expensive places.

Edit: Dave said it better.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by dave8721

It just means millennials are buying in those markets (because they can) while renting in more expensive coastal markets.

That's how I read the data too. In addition in many of these cities the housing stock probably trends more towards single-family housing and less towards apartments. This means, all other things considered, owning will not only be cheaper in absolute terms, but cheaper in relative terms compared to renting.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

if i were the head of a working class family living in a neighborhood like austin or auburn gresham, i'd try to get the fuck out of chicago too.

Yeah, I know a guy named Barack who seems to have done it. But I don't understand. I was born and raised in DC and burbs. I fled from THERE.

[maru2501]

most of the country doesn't really get Chicago, which is fine, since we don't get most of the country

[Pedestrian]

Two kinds of people seem to be moving TO the midwest and rustbelt towns: Midlife and retiring people who never cared much for the amenities of coastal cities so loved by so many at this web site (often because they lived in the suburbs or outer reaches of the city and never went downtown) and who recognize that they can live well on a much lower income in the midwest, and a few (operative word few) urban pioneering millennials attracted to the challenge of places and neighborhoods struggling to improve. The biggest challenge for the latter group is finding a job in a place that is just getting off the economic mat. The former, of course, can do what they do because they aren't any longer working or do the kind of work you can find anywhere. But I think the majority of millennials are still attracted to the most glamorous, successful cities; not the struggling ones.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by maru2501

most of the country doesn't really get Chicago, which is fine, since we don't get most of the country

Let me tell you: I "get" it. I've been there a number of times. I enjoyed my trips a lot. More than once I've said to myself, "Self, imagine what you could get in Chicago for what this SF place is worth."

But then I remember my several shopping tours of Michigan Ave in January--mostly hopping from one store to another to get inside out of the frigid temps and biting wind. And, of course, in summer I read about the killer heat waves every few summers and remember the sweltering lifestyle of growing up in DC before A/C.

And I move on.

Chicago is a good town. I'm glad it has people who appreciate it and I know there's a lot to appreciate. But there are deal-breakers for me.

[Emprise du Lion]

Originally Posted by ChargerCarl

Question for Chicago/midwest friends on this board: why isn't Chicago growing? It seems to have all the urban amenities that coastal cities offer + low prices. Whats going on?

I went there once few years ago and loved it.

Chicago proper has growing white, Hispanic, and Asian populations, but that growth is virtually canceled out due to the sheer number of African Americans leaving the city.

I'd also bet that Chicagoland overall would still be growing were it not for the ongoing budget impasse that's gripped Illinois for nearly 2 years now. It's had dire consequences across the state, and there is currently no end in sight.

[pdxtex]

all those cities mentioned are far from struggling though, they have low unemployment, low crime (for the most part) and low housing costs. that's like the magic combination. but yeah, there might be some pioneers trying to make a go of it Covington, KY or Lansing. Detroit was a top 20 market last year too, wow! Average home sale was 200k. *tilts head*....that's definitely news....but you guys are right, they aren't specifying where these millenials are moving from, so they are probably either former renters or from in state for the most part.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Two kinds of people seem to be moving TO the midwest and rustbelt towns: Midlife and retiring people who never cared much for the amenities of coastal cities so loved by so many at this web site (often because they lived in the suburbs or outer reaches of the city and never went downtown) and who recognize that they can live well on a much lower income in the midwest, and a few (operative word few) urban pioneering millennials attracted to the challenge of places and neighborhoods struggling to improve. The biggest challenge for the latter group is finding a job in a place that is just getting off the economic mat. The former, of course, can do what they do because they aren't any longer working or do the kind of work you can find anywhere. But I think the majority of millennials are still attracted to the most glamorous, successful cities; not the struggling ones.

This couldn't be further from the truth. Actual demographic trends are that rich, white millenials are flooding into Midwestern inner cities. They are also joined by some boomers migrating to downtown for a "downsizing". However, retiring boomers are a sizable chunk of the population that is leaving. This has been ongoing from decades much as it do for large parts of the country where people migrate to Florida and Arizona to die. The largest demographic leaving midwestern rust belt cities is African American in what is, as someone else said, essentially a reversal of the great migration. The change that is happening in several parts of Chicago right now is downright astonishing. It's almost entirely due to milennials returning to the core en masse. Then there are your midsized midwestern towns like Des Moines or Madison that people move to for school or a first job and never really have a reason to leave. The winter is bad, but your quality of life is way higher across the board for a much lower cost than just about anywhere else on earth.

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Two kinds of people seem to be moving TO the midwest and rustbelt towns: Midlife and retiring people who never cared much for the amenities of coastal cities so loved by so many at this web site...

eye roll

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

...(often because they lived in the suburbs or outer reaches of the city and never went downtown)...

eye roll



my favorite amenity is the lack of smug.

[The North One]

^^^

I for one appreciate the amenity of not living in the ring of fire, that would be a huge "deal breaker" for me.

[mhays]

I've heard nothing about "rich, white millenials are flooding into Midwestern inner cities," unless we have very different definitions of both "rich" and "flooding."

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by mhays

I've heard nothing about "rich, white millenials are flooding into Midwestern inner cities," unless we have very different definitions of both "rich" and "flooding."

the loop gained nearly 50k people between 2010 and 2015. i think the gentrification trends we see on the coasts are finally catching up to interior markets also. i was looking at real estate in my hometown (ann arbor) and its like Portland prices out there. they're building luxury townhomes and loft conversions that are going for 700k. wow! say it with me now, Washtennnnaw!! doesn't that sound sexy? but yeah, Midwestern population graph aren't 45% degree angles, they are more like 5 percent slow and steady trickles. anyone around here from upstate new York? Rochester and buffalo seem intriguing, especially buffalo...but there is definitely coastal quality growth happening at the metro level in some ciites, oklahoma city grew by 8 percent in that same time, indy, minneapolis and columbus all grew by 5% also. that's pretty good for the snowy cradle of hellllll. if you consider Nashville the Midwest, they grew by nearly 10 percent. eh, its pretty close.

[maru2501]

the only people moving TO san francisco are panning for gold or hoping to slide out of a saloon and catch work constructing the new "cable-car" system

[10023]

Funny coming from a Portlander...