The Super-Rad Airports/Airlines Thread

[CPVLIVE]

Originally Posted by Daltnpapi4u

WOW this flight is going to require at least 95% connection traffic since SLC doesnt have anywhere near the O&D to make it on its own. This flight will bleed more money then any other route from SLC. I doubt this will last very long.

I'm assuming Delta is aware of this and they plan to feed plenty of traffic into this flight. The real problem will be the SLC/CDG flight concerning O&D. I believe Delta can feed bodies to the Tokyo fight - not so Paris. It's virtually certain The SLC/CDG flight will die shortly after the sudsidy does. The numbers just aren't there.

[RFPCME]

Originally Posted by Daltnpapi4u

WOW this flight is going to require at least 95% connection traffic since SLC doesnt have anywhere near the O&D to make it on its own. This flight will bleed more money then any other route from SLC. I doubt this will last very long.

Dalnpapi4U: Don't know what O&D means, possibly something like "origination & destination," meaning the people who start their trip in SLC and return. Right? If so, I think your projection is woefully inaccurate. Why?
First, let's take the Mormon Church's missionary program. My hunch is missionaries, alone, will take at least 10% of the available seats each of the 5 days per week.

Second, SLC is the silent sales capital of the world. Few things get made in Utah, but almost everything under the sun gets sold out of SLC, much internationally. Utahans, for whatever reason, have sales built into their DNA. Anyone who has flown out of SLC for any length of time knows SLC O&D flights are jammed with sales people, going somewhere to sell something. My guess is at least another 10% of the seats on SLC to Tokyo flights will be occupied by salespeople going somewhere to sell something, especially to the burgeoning markets in the Far East.

Finally, the economy in SLC is so strong that another 10% of the seats will go to technical people going somewhere to share their technology. Whether it is software, netware, bio-medical products, natural-resource related, or other types of technology, another 10% of the seats will be SLC O&D seats, related to the transfer and support of technology.

Let's see, that gives us a conservative 30% of the seats each of the 5 days per week as O&D seats. Is that enough to make money?

[RFPCME]

Originally Posted by CPVLIVE

I'm assuming Delta is aware of this and they plan to feed plenty of traffic into this flight. The real problem will be the SLC/CDG flight concerning O&D. I believe Delta can feed bodies to the Tokyo fight - no so Paris. It's virtually certain The SLC/CDG flight will die shortly after the sudsidy does. The numbers just aren't there.

CPVLIVE: Same argument I made about the SLC to Tokyo flight.

[delts145]

RFPCME, excellent points and you were only beginning to cover Delta's enthusiasm for SLC as it's Western most hub. The Paris-SLC connection has been a fantastic success, with the daily flights averaging over an 80% occupancy. Anyone who would assume that somehow the Paris to Salt Lake flight is doomed to failure has not been keeping up with the trades.

As far as the Tokyo - SLC connection, I predict Utah/Wasatch Front - Tokyo trade export will go from the current 400-plus million to between 3 and 5 billion within the next 2 to 3 years. Over the next seven years that annual export combined with tourism will increase to well over 10 billion. Tokyo is a behemoth of a market and Delta is positioning SLC as a critical No. American connection between East and West. As was stated by officials in the KSL link, "the implications for the Wasatch Front are phenominal."

No Governor understands the many facets of the Far East as well as Huntsman. If he is doing summersaults over this, then that's a pretty good indication in and of itself. I'm beginning to wish Huntsman was not so determined to leave office in four years.

[RFPCME]

Originally Posted by delts145

RFPCME, excellent points and you were only beginning to cover Delta's enthusiasm for SLC as it's Western most hub. The Paris-SLC connection has been a fantastic success, with the daily flights averaging over an 80% occupancy. Anyone who would assume that somehow the Paris to Salt Lake flight is doomed to failure has not been keeping up with the trades.

As far as the Tokyo - SLC connection, I predict Utah/Wasatch Front - Tokyo trade export will go from the current 400-plus million to between 3 and 5 billion within the next 2 to 3 years. Over the next seven years that annual export combined with tourism will increase to well over 10 billion. Tokyo is a behemoth of a market and Delta is positioning SLC as a critical No. American connection between East and West. As was stated by officials in the KSL link, "the implications for the Wasatch Front are phenominal."

No Governor understands the many facets of the Far East as well as Huntsman. If he is doing summersaults over this, then that's a pretty good indication in and of itself. I'm beginning to wish Huntsman was not so determined to leave office in four years.

Delts: Being the good liberal that I am, it pains me to admit this...but I think John Jr. is an economic gold mine, especially as it pertains to the Far East. The lessons he learned in Singapore are invaluable. There is nothing like living and working in a foreign country to help you understand how to do business in that environment. You need not worry about the Governor leaving the political scene. My guess is that Orin Hatch will step down in 2012 and make room for the Governor.

[CPVLIVE]

Originally Posted by RFPCME

CPVLIVE: Same argument I made about the SLC to Tokyo flight.

Yada...Yada...Yada...Same thing I always hear. Well (fill-in the blank) is different. Is the Mormon church really sending 125 missionary's a week to Tokyo - I don't know it sounds high. But I always trust the numbers and here's a few to ponder. Utah State GDP (from US BEA)2007 - 105 Billion - ranked 33rd and just nipping Arkansas at 95B. Utah per capita income 2007 (from the US Census Bureau) - $31,189 -ranked 45th - trailed only by Kentucky, So. Carolina, Arkansas, W. Virginia, and Mississippi. The entire state population of Utah is around 2.6 million (mediocre catchment at best). If you live in SLC and want to fly to Paris non-stop don't delay. It's only a matter of time.

[RFPCME]

Originally Posted by CPVLIVE

Yada...Yada...Yada...Same thing I always hear. Well (fill-in the blank) is different. Is the Mormon church really sending 125 missionary's a week to Tokyo - I don't know it sounds high. But I always trust the numbers and here's a few to ponder. Utah State GDP (from US BEA)2007 - 105 Billion - ranked 33rd and just nipping Arkansas at 95B. Utah per capita income 2007 (from the US Census Bureau) - $31,189 -ranked 45th - trailed only by Kentucky, So. Carolina, Arkansas, W. Virginia, and Mississippi. The entire state population of Utah is around 2.6 million (mediocre catchment at best). If you live in SLC and want to fly to Paris non-stop don't delay. It's only a matter of time.

CPVLIVE: Thanks for the numbers. Don't know if the Mormon Church sends 125 missionaries a week to Japan. Probably not. But with Japan as a gateway to the northern part of the Orient, a 125 might be realistic. I think your other numbers prove my point--The best business in Utah is outside of Utah, which is why so many people fly so much out of that airport. Utah is a nice place to live, but there isn't the business base their to support the lifestyles of a very well educated population. Hence, the fixation on flying.

These number probably don't exist, but it would be very interesting to see the number of airline miles flown by per capita. What data am I basing my guesses on? Not much, other than flying out of SLC for over 25 years on business. Too many well-educated people in the area who want to live there but have to go somewhere else to make money. I finally gave up and moved closer to where my business was after my kids got out of high school.

[BA744PHX]

Originally Posted by delts145

RFPCME, excellent points and you were only beginning to cover Delta's enthusiasm for SLC as it's Western most hub. The Paris-SLC connection has been a fantastic success, with the daily flights averaging over an 80% occupancy. Anyone who would assume that somehow the Paris to Salt Lake flight is doomed to failure has not been keeping up with the trades.

As far as the Tokyo - SLC connection, I predict Utah/Wasatch Front - Tokyo trade export will go from the current 400-plus million to between 3 and 5 billion within the next 2 to 3 years. Over the next seven years that annual export combined with tourism will increase to well over 10 billion. Tokyo is a behemoth of a market and Delta is positioning SLC as a critical No. American connection between East and West. As was stated by officials in the KSL link, "the implications for the Wasatch Front are phenominal."

No Governor understands the many facets of the Far East as well as Huntsman. If he is doing summersaults over this, then that's a pretty good indication in and of itself. I'm beginning to wish Huntsman was not so determined to leave office in four years.

High occupancy does not mean profitable if all those seats are only paying $400 fares which is not alot (I'm not saying these are the fares on this flight but using as an example)

Now I'm sorry but assuming that single flight to NRT will give Utah's exports a boost to 3-5 billion in just a few years is just amusing!! Sorry to be negative but dam. If that was the case PHX should have at least 20billion in exports to the UK alone their flight from BA on a 747 without any feed on the PHX end. And this flight has been around for at least 15 years already.

You have to remember all these connecting passengers will lower the RASM'S for this flight to many connecting passengers is not a good thing.

The problem with this flight is there is not enough O&D to make it profitable both sides are going to rely heavily on connecting traffic XXX-SLC-NRT-XXX AND XXX-NRT-SLC-XXX and for most cities in the mountain west and west coast its easier to fly XXX-LAX/SFO-XXX since you can get to about any city in Asia via LAX or SFO why double connect in SLC if its not needed?

This flight will only work for the less then 50 people if that going to and from SLC and Asia every day.

I know this flight is exciting for everyone in SLC which you have every reason to be but over inflated egos about how this will really have an impact on SLC is grossly amazing. It will only benefit SLC if this really serving all the people traveling from SLC to NRT which is doesnt exist

[RFPCME]

Originally Posted by Daltnpapi4u

High occupancy does not mean profitable if all those seats are only paying $400 fares which is not alot (I'm not saying these are the fares on this flight but using as an example)

Now I'm sorry but assuming that single flight to NRT will give Utah's exports a boost to 3-5 billion in just a few years is just amusing!! Sorry to be negative but dam. If that was the case PHX should have at least 20billion in exports to the UK alone their flight from BA on a 747 without any feed on the PHX end. And this flight has been around for at least 15 years already.

You have to remember all these connecting passengers will lower the RASM'S for this flight to many connecting passengers is not a good thing.

The problem with this flight is there is not enough O&D to make it profitable both sides are going to rely heavily on connecting traffic XXX-SLC-NRT-XXX AND XXX-NRT-SLC-XXX and for most cities in the mountain west and west coast its easier to fly XXX-LAX/SFO-XXX since you can get to about any city in Asia via LAX or SFO why double connect in SLC if its not needed?

This flight will only work for the less then 50 people if that going to and from SLC and Asia every day.

I know this flight is exciting for everyone in SLC which you have every reason to be but over inflated egos about how this will really have an impact on SLC is grossly amazing. It will only benefit SLC if this really serving all the people traveling from SLC to NRT which is doesnt exist

Daltnpapi4u: Two quick points to consider: (1) SLC is the western hub for the Delta/Northwest system. If you are in the South, the Northeast, or the Upper Mid-west, it makes no sense to connect through SFO or LAX. (2) You're completely ignoring my earlier comments about the percentage of people in Utah who fly elsewhere to make a living, with a much larger percentage of that living coming out of the Orient each day.

[BA744PHX]

Originally Posted by delts145

RFPCME, excellent points and you were only beginning to cover Delta's enthusiasm for SLC as it's Western most hub. The Paris-SLC connection has been a fantastic success, with the daily flights averaging over an 80% occupancy. Anyone who would assume that somehow the Paris to Salt Lake flight is doomed to failure has not been keeping up with the trades.

As far as the Tokyo - SLC connection, I predict Utah/Wasatch Front - Tokyo trade export will go from the current 400-plus million to between 3 and 5 billion within the next 2 to 3 years. Over the next seven years that annual export combined with tourism will increase to well over 10 billion. Tokyo is a behemoth of a market and Delta is positioning SLC as a critical No. American connection between East and West. As was stated by officials in the KSL link, "the implications for the Wasatch Front are phenominal."

No Governor understands the many facets of the Far East as well as Huntsman. If he is doing summersaults over this, then that's a pretty good indication in and of itself. I'm beginning to wish Huntsman was not so determined to leave office in four years.

Another example of O&D now the stats I have do not reflect people traveling to NRT but SLC overall INTL market. For the first 9 months of this year SLC enplanned was only 175,000 now you divide that by 270 days in those 9 months that is about 650 one way each day. Now take into fact that at least 400-500 of those out bound passengers are going to Mexico and Canada. Also take into consideration that of those 650 that also includes connecting passengers. So you will have barely 150-250 leaving North America and you can bet a majority are heading over to Europe not Asia. Overall SLC cant even fill a 767 anywhere outside of North America based on its Intl O&D alone

REF
http://www.slcairport.com/pdf/airstats/summary/2008.pdf
mind you all this information came from SLC airport website

[delts145]

Already posted by RFPCME

[wrendog]

It's not all about O&D. SLC is a HUB!!! This route will be fine. I'm actually most excited for the new JFK-GOT (Gothenburg Sweden) flight!

[BA744PHX]

Originally Posted by wrendog

It's not all about O&D. SLC is a HUB!!! This route will be fine. I'm actually most excited for the new JFK-GOT (Gothenburg Sweden) flight!

Yes O&D does make a difference from being profitable to just being there. Which this flight will just be there. Its not even bookable as a daily flight which also shows that even DL knows the lack of feed and pick up they will get from this flight. You need to have healthy amount of O&D as well it cannot just rely on connection passengers which this flight will be an easy 90% connecting. And lets not forget the the most important thing about this flight... First class bookings that is the most important thing about this flight. This flight is alot different then flights to Europe which can marginally make it on major coach bookings.

A perfect example about full flights.. When Lufthansa flew FRA-PHX the loads were extremely healthy if I remember correctly flights were going out average above 90% BUT the biggest problem was lack of F bookings which we know if PHX or DEN still cant get the flight to Asia based on these factors alone there is no way in hell SLC can manage it for that long. LAS can't even maintain more then one flight to Asia and their flights have HIGH O&D but lack F class bookings

Now I was surprised about GOT as well but the flight coming from JFK it can work. I would hope that LIS, WAW and OSL follow from JFK soon

[wrendog]

The SLC-NRT flight is 5x weekly. We shall see if it does ok. I'm optimistic.

[CPVLIVE]

Originally Posted by Daltnpapi4u

Yes O&D does make a difference from being profitable to just being there. Which this flight will just be there. Its not even bookable as a daily flight which also shows that even DL knows the lack of feed and pick up they will get from this flight. You need to have healthy amount of O&D as well it cannot just rely on connection passengers which this flight will be an easy 90% connecting. And lets not forget the the most important thing about this flight... First class bookings that is the most important thing about this flight. This flight is alot different then flights to Europe which can marginally make it on major coach bookings.

A perfect example about full flights.. When Lufthansa flew FRA-PHX the loads were extremely healthy if I remember correctly flights were going out average above 90% BUT the biggest problem was lack of F bookings which we know if PHX or DEN still cant get the flight to Asia based on these factors alone there is no way in hell SLC can manage it for that long. LAS can't even maintain more then one flight to Asia and their flights have HIGH O&D but lack F class bookings

Your wasting your time pointing out facts Daltnpapi4u, people in Utah don't put on their pants one leg at a time. They also don't go to the bathroom or eat junk food and have been known to jump tall buildings in a single bound. A few on here are getting all there news from the local cheerleaders and are clueless as to whats happened in the past and how easy it is to foretell the future. The numbers don't ever lie.

[BarbulaM1]

Originally Posted by BoiseAirport

I disagree. LAX and ORD have far more competition than Denver does. ANA, especially as a star alliance member, would probably far much better in DEN versus LAX or ORD.

Denver will get a nonstop Asian flight certainly within the next 3-5 years, I predict.

Anthony

Mind you DEN is by far a much larger hub with a much larger draw than SLC. Since it is a hub and draws much of the traffic into the Western US on the *A network it wouldn't be too affected by the same flight being in SLC, especially since the two are on two vastly different alliance networks. The entire Eastern US on the *A network would theoretically draw into DEN for an NRT flight, DEN LAX SFO (and I think SEA still?) for Asian flights. If someone like the star and live in the east they are going to most likely go through the Western hubs to get to Asia. (of course ORD and such have direct, but is more effecient to fly out of the West).

Also in terms of passenger traffic there is very little competition between SLC and DEN, if there where it would show a little bit more...

[Wasatch_One]

Originally Posted by CPVLIVE

Your wasting your time pointing out facts Daltnpapi4u, people in Utah don't put on their pants one leg at a time. They also don't go to the bathroom or eat junk food and have been known to jump tall buildings in a single bound. A few on here are getting all there news from the local cheerleaders and are clueless as to whats happened in the past and how easy it is to foretell the future. The numbers don't ever lie.

I'm not going to pretend that I know what makes successful routes or not, because I don't.

But I do know that those in charge of making the decision on non stop to Paris or Tokyo flights know a LOT more than any of us on this thread and I am sure they are looking out for company shareholders.

[Future Mayor]

Yup you guys are all perfectly correct and know everything about the airline business. Those idiots as Delta/Northwest don't know anything. Give me a break.

Of course those of us that live here are going to be cheerleaders for the flight and it's success, we love it here that's why we live here. If Denver had got and Asia flight they would be doing the same thing. Any market would be cheering just the same.

Obviously Delta feels that the flight can be profitable otherwise there is no way they would have decided to do it. Whether or not it is profitable is yet to be seen but obviously the powers that be think it will. SLC is now the Western most hub in the United States for the Worlds LARGEST AIRLINE (by passenger count). This will be a huge factor in the success of this flight.

[Wasatch_One]

One thing I have read about the SLC International Airport is that the landing and take off fees are much lower than in newer airports such as DIA

Possibly this could be a contributing factor as to why SLC got one to Tokyo first?

[delts145]

Bon voyage - Delta begins nonstop flights from Salt Lake to Paris

http://deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,700231276,00.html


(Geoffrey McAllister, Deseret News)

Delta and state economic development officials could not have hoped for more from the only nonstop service by a U.S. carrier between the western U.S. and Paris.

Delta, Northwest shareholders approve combining the airlines


(pic by Danny Chan, Deseret News) Two Northwest and Delta Air Lines planes taxi to a departure runway before taking off from Salt Lake City International, which will soon become North America's Western Hub for the world's largest airline.


"Domo Arigatou Gozaimasu" - Salt Lake City Direct to Tokyo -


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