Canada: 1 Billion.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

I agree with those saying population in big cities will level off, and then the next tier of cities will start seeing much more growth. The big 8/9 cities would all get to somewhere between 5 and 20 million people. But after that?
Red Deer, Medicine Hat, the Peace River area, Prince Albert, Saskatoon, Regina, Brandon, all those mid-sized cities in Ontario that 1overcosc mentioned, and of course all of the Atlantic. Still lots of room to grow in Canada.

The 1 billion thing will definitely never happen, but it would be interesting to see what happens once growth in Toronto does level off. That would be a major shift in the way Canada absorbs immigrants. Will the rest of the big cities have to take on an even bigger share of immigrants, or would smaller cities start to play a larger role?

Smaller cities have serious challenges in attracting immigrants. That's not to say it can't be done.

But the obvious issues are:

a) If you wish to remain near a linguistic or cultural group with whom you have a kinship, you likely need an already large city. Will there be a critical mass of arabic/mandarin/spanish/polish/urdu speakers in Moncton or Red Deer?

b)If you're trained in a specialty profession, or wish you or your child to be (ie. transplant surgeon or medical school respectively) you need a centre with a medical school and a large enough hospital to have a transplant program.

c) If sponsored by relatives as an immigrant or refugee, you'll likely end up wherever they live.

d) If you're knowledge of Canada is less than robust, you may never have heard of Red Deer or Moncton, but you know Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

For a smaller centre to get around those obstacles, I think it needs to specialize in attracting certain immigrants by profession and/or linguistic/cultural group.

Moncton may not be able to afford a suite of services or support a religious institution or restaurant for every culture.

It could, however, support 1 or 2.

A conscious choice to reach out to a certain demographic could be done by reaching out to Canadians who fit that demographic, say in Toronto, and incentivizing them to move, then using them to build the social network and branding that will interest others, specifically newcomers to join.

There's also a need to attract the public investments that create positive momentum for growth.

I've been using 'medical school' all week, so let's stick w/that one.

In some cases, you have to attract that investment before there is a compelling case for it. That entails a bit of risk by government.

There is a fine line between intelligent investment to promote growth and complete folly.

But get some of those things that attract and retain people, in education, health, 'quality of life' (signature parks, arts facilities, beautiful streetscapes etc.)

Transportation links that make connecting to major centres easier, as well as air connections back to a home country are also highly advantageous.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Smaller cities have serious challenges in attracting immigrants. That's not to say it can't be done.

I agree, but the federal government can do a lot to support immigration to smaller communities, especially through nomination programs and decentralization of the immigration process.

Originally Posted by Northern Light

If you wish to remain near a linguistic or cultural group with whom you have a kinship, you likely need an already large city. Will there be a critical mass of arabic/mandarin/spanish/polish/urdu speakers in Moncton or Red Deer?

Moncton is 1/3rd francophone, and this helps attract a french speaking diaspora to the city. Also, like a lot of cities in Canada, there are reasonably large communities of Filipinos, Koreans and Chinese in the city. The Arab community has been rapidly growing, especially with the influx of Syrians. In the anglophone school system in Moncton, 15% of students are English as a second language. One of the downtown anglophone schools is over 50% ESL. That almost sounds like Toronto........

Originally Posted by Northern Light

If you're trained in a specialty profession, or wish you or your child to be (ie. transplant surgeon or medical school respectively) you need a centre with a medical school and a large enough hospital to have a transplant program.

Nobody "plans" to be a transplant surgeon. Your initial aspiration is to go to medical school. Its only after being in med school and being exposed to all the possibilities that you choose a specialty (I'm a physician, I know).

Moncton has a quasi-medical school. UdeM sponsors the Centre de Formation Medicale du Nouveau-Brunswick. It is affiliated with the Universite de Sherbrooke. You can receive your entire medical education in Moncton at UdeM, but your degree is from Sherbrooke. The Dumont Hospital has been designated a Centre Hospitalier Universitaire to support the program. Dalhousie University has a similar program affiliated with UNBSJ in Saint John. The Dal program is distributed, with my hospital (The Moncton Hospital) being a major participant. It is possible to do your clinical clerkship (3rd & 4th year medical school) at the Moncton Hospital, and the Moncton Hospital also has a full family practice teaching program. There are about 25 medical students and residents at the Moncton Hospital at any one time. Medical research is undertaken in Moncton on both the anglophone and francophone sides. The Atlantic Cancer Research Institute at the Dumont does some very interesting work with personalized cancer therapies.

Originally Posted by Northern Light

If sponsored by relatives as an immigrant or refugee, you'll likely end up wherever they live.

They did a study on the over 1,250 Syrians that came to Moncton because of the Syrian civil war. Over 90% of the refugees have stayed in Moncton and are happy here. This is despite the fact they didn't know anyone here when they arrived.

Originally Posted by Northern Light

If you're knowledge of Canada is less than robust, you may never have heard of Red Deer or Moncton, but you know Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

I agree completely with this.

Originally Posted by Northern Light

If a smaller centre to get around those obstacles, I think it needs to specialize in attracting certain immigrants by profession and/or linguistic/cultural group.

Moncton may not be able to afford a suite of services or support a religious institution or restaurant for every culture.

It could, however, support 1 or 2.

Moncton has both a mosque and a synagogue. The variety of new ethic restaurants in the city is becoming quite noticeable The Blue Olive has several locations and is well noted for its middle eastern flair. There are more Japanese and east Asian restaurants in the city than you can shake a stick at, and the Japanese restaurants aren't all sushi either (there are ramen and tepenyaki restaurants too, amongst others). In terms of immigrant support, Moncton has a very robust agency called MAGMA (multicultural association of greater Moncton) which does very good work.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moncton is 1/3rd francophone, and this helps attract a french speaking diaspora to the city. Also, like a lot of cities in Canada, there are reasonably large communities of Filipinos, Koreans and Chinese in the city. The Arab community has been rapidly growing, especially with the influx of Syrians. In the anglophone school system in Moncton, 15% of students are English as a second language. One of the downtown anglophone schools is over 50% ESL. That almost sounds like Toronto........

That does sound more diverse than I might have imagined. Though I'm Canadian and fairly well traveled in Canada (though not Moncton) and I wasn't aware of it being 'that' diverse, which does make one wonder about getting that message out to prospective immigrants.

That's also part of the reason I suggested 'targeting' as getting a message out through advertising is expensive, and aiming at niche groups can reduce the cost; especially if the campaign requires translation(s).

Nobody "plans" to be a transplant surgeon. Your initial aspiration is to go to medical school. Its only after being in med school and being exposed to all the possibilities that you choose a specialty (I'm a physician, I know).

Moncton has a quasi-medical school. UdeM sponsors the Centre de Formation Medicale du Nouveau-Brunswick. It is affiliated with the Universite de Sherbrooke. You can receive your entire medical education in Moncton at UdeM, but your degree is from Sherbrooke. The Dumont Hospital has been designated a Centre Hospitalier Universitaire to support the program. Dalhousie University has a similar program affiliated with UNBSJ in Saint John. The Dal program is distributed, with my hospital (The Moncton Hospital) being a major participant. It is possible to do your clinical clerkship (3rd & 4th year medical school) at the Moncton Hospital, and the Moncton Hospital also has a full family practice teaching program. There are about 25 medical students and residents at the Moncton Hospital at any one time. Medical research is undertaken in Moncton on both the anglophone and francophone sides. The Atlantic Cancer Research Institute at the Dumont does some very interesting work with personalized cancer therapies.

I was simply meaning that if you already practice, you need a hospital that supports your type of practice.

Likewise, if you want to be a doctor, you need a medical school nearby.

Your notes on the medical school programs are interesting. Before making that comment, I actually looked up the list of medical schools in Canada on Wikipedia.

It showed none in New Brunswick, which is why I chose that example.

They did a study on the over 1,250 Syrians that came to Moncton because of the Syrian civil war. Over 90% of the refugees have stayed in Moncton and are happy here. This is despite the fact they didn't know anyone here when they arrived.

I don't doubt this, but that doesn't take away people's insecurities about such things when making an initial decision. In the Syrian case, the sponsorships dictated where people went initially. In the absence of a similar program, its a choice.

Moncton has both a mosque and a synagogue. The variety of new ethic restaurants in the city is becoming quite noticeable The Blue Olive has several locations and is well noted for its middle eastern flair. There are more Japanese and east Asian restaurants in the city than you can shake a stick at, and the Japanese restaurants aren't all sushi either (there are ramen and tepenyaki restaurants too, amongst others). In terms of immigrant support, Moncton has a very robust agency called MAGMA (multicultural association of greater Moncton) which does very good work.

For a city under 100,000 that's impressive.

***

My point was not to disparage Moncton in any way.

But using it as an example of a 'next tier' city, and what challenges it may have to overcome (both real and perceived) in attracting more immigrants.

[GlassCity]

Smaller communities in Manitoba are growing like crazy, almost exclusively through immigration. For instance, Steinbach—a traditionally mennonite town—grew by 17% from 2011 to 2016, and it still only has a population of 16,000. It grows through a provincial program, and has attracted many Latin American and Filipino immigrants. No reason this success couldn't be replicated elsewhere, especially in cities many times bigger than that and in a scenario where big cities simply become full.

You don't need an ethnoburb of a few hundred thousand to make it as an immigrant. There isn't exactly a tight-knit Russian community in Vancouver, yet my family still did fine. All it takes is having that one connection to help you through the process, and I'm willing to bet that there are many such possibilities throughout Canada's 2nd tier and below cities.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Your notes on the medical school programs are interesting. Before making that comment, I actually looked up the list of medical schools in Canada on Wikipedia.

It showed none in New Brunswick, which is why I chose that example.

Well, you're not entirely wrong. Although 60 New Brunswick students are accepted into NB based medical school programs every year, and don't have to leave the province to study, they actually graduate with a degree from Sherbrooke or Dalhousie, therefore, by the books, NB actually doesn't "have" a medical school.

The situation isn't ideal. The province has fully developed residency training programs in French and English for family medicine, but aside from this there are no full fledged residency programs for other medical disciplines in NB (save for internal medicine in Saint John and psychiatry (in French) in Moncton). More needs to be done.

I expect we are in a transitional phase and that in 30-40 years, there will be full fledged medical schools in both Moncton and Saint John (just like there are law schools at both UdeM and UNBF). The umbilical cords to Sherbrooke and Dalhousie will have been cut. In the meantime infrastructure is being built and appropriate staff is being recruited.


new medical research building under construction at the CHU Dumont in Moncton, and the new home for ACRI

Originally Posted by Northern Light

For a city under 100,000 that's impressive

The City of Moncton has a population of 72,000, but lies at the heart of an unamalgamated but geographically contiguous conurbation of 120,000, including the city of Dieppe and the town of Riverview. The Moncton CMA is 150,000, which is the largest in NB.

Originally Posted by Northern Light

My point was not to disparage Moncton in any way.

I'm sure you had no intention to do so. I was just clearing up some misconceptions. The Maritimes are often forgotten elsewhere in the country.

[someone123]

Immigration levels and retention in Canada have more to do with how immigration programs are run than big vs. small cities. Places like Charlottetown get a decent level of immigration (for a while, much higher per capita than Halifax because NS had low caps and a poorly run program). I think it would be hard to get immigrants to move to truly isolated small towns but the cities in the Maritimes aren't really like that.

I think the whole metro population thing is also kind of misleading when comparing the Maritimes to similar parts of Western Canada. There's no town in the west that is like Moncton, surrounded by a bunch of other cities and towns but not part of a major metropolitan area. Each Atlantic province also tends to have a bunch of services concentrated in one or more smaller cities that you would find in a major city in a bigger province.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

So, I went to Stats Cans site see what they think 'realistic' scenarios of growth look like.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...estdm1-eng.htm

Based on this publication, by 2061, which most here would hope to be within their lifetimes, they peg 52M-64M as a reasonable guess.

If you take the high forecast and apply that growth rate to the end of the century, you get something in the ballpark of 100M.

So I think that's a logical place to start in terms of imagining where Canada may head, mixing a tad of fantasy, with a bit of reality.

Rather than throwing darts at a map, my first thought as to where growth would occur, is how much fresh water is easily accessible.

That makes Cities on the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence obvious choices for growth.

I'd be much more concerned about cities that are dependent on glacier-fed rivers in a era of climate change. (Calgary)

Beyond the obvious then, where do we have vast fresh water, but few people?

Lake Winnipeg immediately comes to mind, Reindeer Lake, Lake Athabaska, Great Slave Lake, and Great Bear Lake, round out the 'Big 10' (excluding the Great Lakes).

Of these the best prospect for growth in the near term would be Lake Winnipeg, that areas of Manitoba does not currently house even one material population centre. So
I'm not sure where it would make most sense to grow a new city. Presumably on the #6 corridor, maybe something about 1/2 way to Thompson.

Looking at lesser sized lakes that seem underdeveloped and near existing urban settlement or transportation leads me to think that the Lac-Saint-Jean area of Quebec would make sense of an urban centre of size.

North Bay Ontario has abundant water, a university and is connected to transporation.

Trois Rivieres would make sense.

Hay River would be a good choice for growth as well, on a huge body of water, connected to rail already.

For existing cities, for a major move upwards in population, Thunder Bay, the Sault, Windsor all make sense. So would Owen Sound in Ontario, and Barrie.

Kingston in Ontario makes sense, and it would be logical to have one other city of size on Lake Erie. Pt. Colborne or Pt. Stanley would make the most sense, taking advantage of the nearby size of Welland and St. Thomas respectively.

***

I'm not as familiar w/the natural limits of growth in Mtrl or Vancouver.

But in the GTA, I think the City proper can top out at round 4.5m by 2100, anchoring a region about 4 times that size, or around 18M

I don't really agree with your conclusions, but I love the realistic premise.

Can we please start a thread re: imagining Canada at 100 million by 2100? That's more realistic and IMO fun discussion to be had.

[Xelebes]

IT should be noted that these diaspora communities do spread. The Indian and Pakistani communities are spreading through small-town Alberta with them taking over the hotel and motel industries. This has caused localised friction as many struggling small towns are suddenly seeing these waves of im/migration pass through these towns.

Waves of immigration will follow where the industries will take them. Maybe not the first generation but definitely the second generation. You see that with the multi-racial communties like Fort McMurray where first and second-generations from Toronto come looking for work. Prospects can be very dire if everyone comes to only one town, they may stay for a while until they get a better idea where the prospects are better. So places like Moncton, Red Deer and Steinbach can expect growth in that fashion. This has to be factored when we are talking about a nation that will be growing 27 times what we currently have.

One other point has to be raised: Natural chokepoints. There are only 14 passes that cross the Rocky Mountains. Three of those passes have heavily used railroads (Crowsnest, Kicking Horse, and Yellowhead.) Can we foresee a 27 fold growth in traffic in this region?

[saffronleaf]

I think Canada at 100 million by 2100 will look like this in terms of CMAs/economic regions (1M+):

1. Toronto – 12.5M
2. Montreal – 10M
3. Vancouver – 8M
4. Calgary – 6M
5. Ottawa – 5M
6. Edmonton – 5M
7. Waterloo (incl. Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Guelph) – 3M
8. Winnipeg – 2.8M
9. Quebec – 2.5M
10. Hamilton – 2.5M
11. Halifax – 2M
12. Oshawa – 2M
13. Barrie – 2M
14. Niagara – 2M
15. London – 2M
16. Saskatoon – 1.8M
17. Victoria – 1.5M
18. Kelowna – 1.5M
19. Windsor – 1.5M
20. Regina – 1.3M
21. Lethbridge – 1M
22. Red Deer – 1M
23. Sherbrooke – 1M
24. Moncton – 1M

The Greater Golden Horseshoe (incl. Waterloo, Hamilton, Oshawa, Niagara, Peterborough, Barrie, Brantford) will have about 25M, or about a quarter of the country's population.

[balletomane]

Just found an interesting document from 1868, the "The Year Book and Almanac of Canada", I guess Stats Canada's predecessor. The document includes population projections for Canada up to 1971, when it was predicted Canada would have a population of 109,540,000 (of course this appears to be based on exponential growth, but interesting nonetheless). The document also predicts that Montreal will grow to at least 300,000 by 1900, while Quebec City, Toronto, Hamilton, Saint John and Halifax would all be cities of at least 100,000. It singles out the Pacific Coast and the area around Lake Winnipeg as being the future location of major cities, our eventual San Francisco and Chicago.

[le calmar]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

For instance, Steinbach—a traditionally mennonite town—grew by 17% from 2011 to 2016, and it still only has a population of 16,000.

That's interesting, but isn't Steinbach an exurb of Winnipeg? (if such a thing exists in Winnipeg). At least it looks close enough to be.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by le calmar

That's interesting, but isn't Steinbach an exurb of Winnipeg? (if such a thing exists in Winnipeg). At least it looks close enough to be.

There are some people who live in Steinbach and commute to work in Winnipeg, but as far as I can tell that isn't what's driving growth there. The commute is long enough by regional standards to make it a real hassle... I suspect that many of the people who do it are in situations where one spouse works in Steinbach, the other works in the city... there would be no point to living in Steinbach if both worked in Winnipeg.

Steinbach is a pretty self-contained place with big industries and employers of its own.

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by le calmar

That's interesting, but isn't Steinbach an exurb of Winnipeg? (if such a thing exists in Winnipeg). At least it looks close enough to be.

No, definitely not. It's simply too far. Winnipeg isn't so big that it makes any sense to live 40 minutes on the highway away. Housing prices aren't all that different there anyway.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Spocket

No, definitely not. It's simply too far. Winnipeg isn't so big that it makes any sense to live 40 minutes on the highway away. Housing prices aren't all that different there anyway.

You can definitely get more house for your money in Steinbach or similar outlying regions. It was kind of painful when I was house hunting last year... Steinbach had homes that I'm sure would have cost 50% more if they had been located in Winnipeg.

I will say that for the handful of people I know who have moved more than 20 minutes outside the Perimeter but continued commuting to the city, well, it didn't last long. East St. Paul, Oak Bluff, fine. Anola, Ste. Agathe, Steinbach not so much.

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by esquire

You can definitely get more house for your money in Steinbach or similar outlying regions. It was kind of painful when I was house hunting last year... Steinbach had homes that I'm sure would have cost 50% more if they had been located in Winnipeg.

I will say that for the handful of people I know who have moved more than 20 minutes outside the Perimeter but continued commuting to the city, well, it didn't last long. East St. Paul, Oak Bluff, fine. Anola, Ste. Agathe, Steinbach not so much.

In many cases, yes but is it really worth the trip? A new home in Steinbach is probably not going to save you that much compared to the same in Winnipeg. Maybe %25 on average. Because it's not Toronto or Vancouver, the difference in your standard of living isn't going to make it worth the cost of commuting, I would think. But fair enough. I'm not buying property there now so what do I know?

[esquire]

^ The equation is roughly the same here as it is in any urban area... does the hassle of commuting justify the increased square footage, yard size and other amenities that you get for your dollar? For most people the answer is likely no.

But that said, it isn't commuters that are driving growth in and around Steinbach anyway. The people buying houses around there are likely working in the area.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by le calmar

That's interesting, but isn't Steinbach an exurb of Winnipeg? (if such a thing exists in Winnipeg). At least it looks close enough to be.

Yeah, what Esquire said basically. I know a handful of people that do that commute, but really it's very much self contained. It's not "seen" as a commuter town in either Winnipeg or Steinbach. Definitely it's own thing going on.

I'll admit it continues to surprise me too. I don't get how it's possible for a small city like that to support that many new people looking for work. But it does!

[Drybrain]

Regarding the above discussion about smaller cities being unable to attract large numbers of immigrants, recent Canadian history shows the opposite trend happening.

Toronto's immigrant intake has gone from 123,000 in 2001 (almost half of all immigrants) to 74,000 in 2016/17. The numbers jump around year to year, but the overall trend is definitely down. Vancouver has seen a smaller downward trend (34,000 to 29,000, with the average gently wafting down.)

Meanwhile, small cities have seen huge spikes in their attraction. Moncton went from 175 immigrants to 1,300 annually in that time, Halifax from 1,300 to 3,717, Saskatoon from 848 to 5,600.

I think having established communities and amenities undeniably plays a role in attraction and even moreso, retention (those smaller cities have lower retention than Toronto), but those are probably A: less of a factor than is commonly assumed, and B: Increasingly found in smaller cities as well.

[Taeolas]

I suspect that once a smaller city establishes a core (which could be as simple as 1 or 2 social families) to welcome newcomers, it can be as easy, if not easier for newcomers to assimilate into them.

With a smaller city, there's probably a bit less culture shock; newcomers will see new familiar faces more often and have a chance to establish connections faster than they would in the masses of a larger city.

In the larger cities, there might be an enclave of people from the same region as them already there, which can help and hinder their assimilation into the Canadian fabric; a large enclave could keep them isolated and keep them from mixing into the new nation.

In the smaller cities, there might be a core group who can support them and guide them through the Canadianisms, but out of necessity they still have to interact with people outside of their group, which helps them knit into the greater society around them.

[someone123]

There are many different streams of immigration and most immigrants are chosen primarily based on factors that correlate with them being able to integrate well within Canadian society.

I get the impression that the hypothetical immigrant in this discussions is often a bizarre hybrid between the sort of families who arrived on 1920's steamships and modern-day Syrian refugees. Yet we also forget that every Canadian city at one time or another hosted new immigrants who did not have a large and established local community of fellow immigrants with the same origin, in a time when long distance communication was much more difficult.

An immigrant to Canada might be someone who did a post-secondary degree here, hasn't started a family yet, already has some local friends, and is already getting by just fine in some Canadian city. They might be from a country that is very different from Canada or they might be from another English- or French-speaking country.

Cost of living relative to income is probably the biggest factor for most immigrants and in recent years this has pressured people to settle in cities other than Toronto and Vancouver.