Canada's Next Major Metropolitan Areas?

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Perspective from the east

Given the title of this thread, obviously the only candidate for a new "major" metropolitan area is Halifax, but I thought I would give my predictions for Atlantic Canadian cities in general:

HALIFAX (2017 CMA population estimate 431,701).

The city of Halifax is the Atlantic Canadian champion for urban growth, and really the only economic engine for the province of NS. It has the highest brand recognition elsewhere in the country and an impressive educational infrastructure, as well as a major port, the east coast naval establishment and many regional head offices. At present the city is growing by more than 5,000 per year, and I don't think this will change. This could even accelerate if more immigrants choose Halifax to live. In addition, large parts of eastern Hants County will likely be incorporated into the Halifax CMA in the near future (based on commuting patterns). As such, my population prediction for Halifax in 2030 is ~ 520,000

ST. JOHN's (2017 CMA population estimate 219,200)

Capital and only real growth centre in Newfoundland. A really nice city, but growth prospects limited by isolation, with most migrants coming from elsewhere in the province. This well of people will eventually dry up and unless the city can find new domestic and/or international streams of immigration, growth potential will be more limited than it's regional rival (Halifax). At present, the city is growing by about 2,500/yr but I think this might taper off somewhat in the future. I think the CMA boundaries are stable. As such, my 2030 population prediction for St. John's is ~ 245,000

MONCTON (2017 CMA population estimate 152,169)

Located in the geographic centre of the region, Moncton has natural advantages in distribution, transportation and commercial activities. There are also surprising strengths in health care, education, banking and insurance. Moncton is also the "Capitale d'Acadie" and the default urban centre for francophone NB. Because of this Moncton will continue to do well in terms of growth. At present, the city is growing by about 2,000/yr and this growth rate has been pretty stable over the last 15 years or so. The CMA boundaries will likely grow to include Shediac/Cap Pele/Cocagne very soon. As such, my population prediction for Moncton in 2030 is ~ 188,000

SAINT JOHN (2017 CMA population estimate 128,541)

Everyone roots for Saint John. The city has an impressive built form in it's core and a tremendous sense of history and place, but it's been difficult for the city to shake it's heavy industry persona and reputation. The city hasn't grown much in the last 40 years, and it's regional reach doesn't extend much beyond the Fundy coast of NB. These factors will limit future growth unless the city can reinvent it's image. The CMA boundaries for Saint John should remain stable. As such, my population prediction for Saint John in 2030 is ~ 135,000

FREDERICTON - not currently a CMA, but should become one in either 2021 or 2026. The CA has a current population of about 105,000.

Fredericton has the advantages of having two universities, the provincial government, and Canada's largest army base in suburban Oromocto. There is a growing IT sector in the city. Growth has been steady and should continue into the future. As such, my prediction for the (eventual) Fredericton CMA population in 2030 will be ~ 125,000

Thanks for this, it's a thorough and well thought out response from the Atlantic Canada side of things.

In the Maritimes, I see a lot of potential for Halifax and Moncton. In terms of Halifax, having an major metropolitan area on the Atlantic coast is going to be great for Canada as a whole. And Moncton is the hub city for the Maritimes.

Any thoughts on PEI? Given the size of the island it could basically be a metropolitan area of its own. Seems like they're being more aggressive with attracting immigrants, too.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I agree with this. Canada needs a northern metropolis, and Yellowknife is the most likely candidate. A vertically oriented growth corridor extending from Lethbridge - Calgary - Red Deer - Edmonton - Peace River - Yellowknife and then on up the MacKenzie River Valley to Inuvik would do a lot to shake up the horizontally oriented perceptions of this country

Yellowknife is brutally cold, remote and isolated though. Like even for northern standards. Whitehorse, however, is warmer than Winnipeg.

There's so much in the "mid north" of Canada that remains largely undeveloped.

I would love to see Central/Northern BC (areas above Kamloops, Vancouver Island) and Northern Alberta (areas above Edmonton) see some development.

Prince Rupert, for example, is warmer than the Prairies, Northern Ontario, Ottawa and Quebec. Our second major West Coast port.

Prince George is about par for the course with southern Prairies cities.

Grande Prairie has an agricultural base and is about the same temperatures / maybe a bit warmer than Winnipeg.

And then of course there's Northern Ontario. It's "south" in some sense I guess largely untouched.

I do agree we need an Arctic presence but I don't know if Yellowknife is the best bet for it.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

Any thoughts on PEI? Given the size of the island it could basically be a metropolitan area of its own. Seems like they're being more aggressive with attracting immigrants, too.

The Island has (in relative terms) been doing better in terms of population growth rate than either NB or NS. The population of PEI is now about 150,000. When I was a kid growing up in PEI, I can remember the population being 108,000 (about 1970), so that's about 40% growth in not quite a half century.

Growth is mostly in the Charlottetown area. The Charlottetown CA however still only has a population of 69,325, so I'll be long dead before Charlottetown becomes a CMA in it's own right (if ever).

International immigration to PEI has been surprisingly strong over the last decade or so.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The Island has (in relative terms) been doing better in terms of population growth rate than either NB or NS. The population of PEI is now about 150,000. When I was a kid growing up in PEI, I can remember the population being 108,000 (about 1970), so that's about 40% growth in not quite a half century.

Really what's happening is that NB and NS are a mix of more and less successful areas while PEI doesn't have any substantial troubled areas. Imagine if, say, Guelph had been turned into a little province back in the 1700's. I don't think it will change dramatically one way or the other in the coming decades.

[rbt]

[QUOTE=GreatTallNorth2;8089386]London is clearly far enough away from Toronto to be it’s own metro and it has one distinct downtown. It’s not growing as fast ast KWC but it is a hub for southwestern Ontario as far as shopping, medical, entertainment, education etc. I’m not saying that Kitchener isn’t going to be a distinct metro and as a Londoner we are jealous of what it happening there, but for all the reasons that have already been mentioned it might be hard for it to be distinct from the gta.[QUOTE]

For better or worse, I think within 30 years London will probably show signs of becoming a satellite city of the GTA.

The leading edge will be manufacturing relocating from GTA suburbs (like Mississauga and Vaughan) to London to escape high land values after their "new" plants (from the 90's) are 40+ years old looking at a refurbishment or new build.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

In the Maritimes, I see a lot of potential for Halifax and Moncton. In terms of Halifax, having an major metropolitan area on the Atlantic coast is going to be great for Canada as a whole. And Moncton is the hub city for the Maritimes.

The dynamic in the Maritimes is a lot like the dynamic in Ontario or BC. Just as Kitchener-Waterloo has grown because it is in the orbit of the GTA, there is a central corridor in the Maritimes where the various towns and cities all do better. This area always had the best strategic economic resources in the region (farmland, ports, etc.). Moncton won out over Saint John because of its location along this corridor, and towns like Amherst and Truro are a little more vibrant than they would otherwise be because of all the traffic.

I'm not sure it'll have a huge economic impact but it will be interesting to see what happens with rail travel in this area in the next few years. Right now there is one train that goes between Halifax and Montreal and stops in Moncton. VIA wants to run additional trains just within the Maritimes along this route, and they are probably soon going to operate commuter rail in the Halifax metro area. In the future it might get a lot easier to travel around this area without a car, and areas like Elmsdale and Windsor might become commuter rail towns.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by rbt

For better or worse, I think within 30 years London will probably show signs of becoming a satellite city of the GTA.

The leading edge will be manufacturing relocating from GTA suburbs (like Mississauga and Vaughan) to London to escape high land values after their "new" plants (from the 90's) are 40+ years old looking at a refurbishment or new build.

It seems like southern Ontario has become increasingly Toronto-centered. The influence of the city is also pulling in smaller towns farther and farther out in the Golden Horseshoe and points beyond, as the GTA emerges as a "hub". It seems like southern Ontario used to be more just a collection of small towns, bigger towns, cities etc., without as much structure or linkage to one another back in the day. Even back in the day a generation or two ago, in say the 70s, places just outside the modern city, say north of Steeles, felt more like "small town Ontario" than today.

It still remains to be seen whether southern Ontario will eventually just be a Toronto-centered large region or one with more than one city totally dominating, forming clusters (like the GTA as one cluster, KWC as another, maybe farther down, one in Windsor/southwestern Ontario etc.).

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

International immigration to PEI has been surprisingly strong over the last decade or so.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince...ants-1.4372647

"Immigrants who arrived on P.E.I. before 2001 prefer to live in rural areas, but in the new century that trend has changed dramatically."


I was surprised to read this, that it was only as recently as 2001 that PEI's rural-living immigrants were outnumbered by immigrants arriving to the city.

[SignalHillHiker]

Lots of factors involved in that, usually industry. I bet a lot of PEIs immigrants worked in agriculture or healthcare. Labrador City used to give St. John's a run for its money in total number of recent immigrants, and probably still does per capita. You have them working all the minimum wage jobs, and a lot of the highly skilled mining/healthcare ones.

Atlantic Canada in general is doing better regarding immigration. NL's has risen 40% since 2012. And government is aggressively pushing to raise it 50% more by 2022.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Lots of factors involved in that, usually industry. I bet a lot of PEIs immigrants worked in agriculture or healthcare. Labrador City used to give St. John's a run for its money in total number of recent immigrants, and probably still does per capita. You have them working all the minimum wage jobs, and a lot of the highly skilled mining/healthcare ones.

Atlantic Canada in general is doing better regarding immigration. NL's has risen 40% since 2012. And government is aggressively pushing to raise it 50% more by 2022.

That's awesome, happy for NL. Do you know the raw number target by 2022?

[SignalHillHiker]

Yeah but it's laughably low for more diverse provinces: 1,700 newcomers (immigrants and refugees) annually. We will be very close to that, at minimum. Our retention rate has risen from almost none to highest in Atlantic Canada in some categories (ie family class immigrants).

[Capsicum]

One thing I hear about immigrants to Atlantic Canada seems to be that the reception they get seems generally pretty positive.

I haven't heard too much about "backlashes" (yet) against immigration in that region of Canada, unlike elsewhere in the big cities. People have been talking about how a "rapid change in demographics" provokes anxiety among the locals in many other places, but it seems Atlantic Canadians are pretty welcoming.

[SignalHillHiker]

Victoria, BC is also: http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/n...city-1.4509997

[Capsicum]

What's interesting is that the idea that the Maritimes and Newfoundland are welcoming to immigrants because of their ability to help a struggling economy runs counter to a common narrative in parts of the western world when it comes to populism in that economic anxiety fuels anti-immigrant sentiment.

Funny how people can come to opposite conclusions -- either say immigrants are less welcomed when the economy isn't doing well, or more welcomed when the economy isn't doing well.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

What's interesting is that the idea that the Maritimes and Newfoundland are welcoming to immigrants because of their ability to help a struggling economy runs counter to a common narrative in parts of the western world when it comes to populism in that economic anxiety fuels anti-immigrant sentiment.

There are still plenty who need convincing of the need for immigration to help buoy the Atlantic Provinces economically. There are just as many anti-immigrant people as there is in any other place, the only difference being that it's been 100 years since the last substantial wave of immigration to the region - this time from far more diverse backgrounds.

The major urban centres of Atlantic Canada are going to naturally increase in the future. It's everywhere else (the CAs included) that are going to substantially dwindle.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

As far as economic development goes, the Region has been unified for a number of years now. If it were to become a single city, my preference would be for it to be called "Waterloo".

Guelph is only a few kilometers further from Kitchener than is Cambridge (Galt), but Cambridge (Preston) is only about half the distance and the two cities are separated only by the 401. I really couldn't see Guelph being absorbed into the Region.

If HSR is ever built, I could definitely see much faster growth for the Region.

I feel that if the cities merged that it should be called "Berlin" which was the original settler name for the city and remained until either the first or second world war.

[Loco101]

To answer the original question of this thread....The next major metropolitan area would have to be somewhere that would attract lots of immigrants. What city has the most potential to do that?

[craner]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

When did the Edmonton and Calgary CMAs reach the 700K threshold?

Calgary hit 700K in the early '90s, Edmonton was probably late '80s as MolsonExport said.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by JHikka

There are still plenty who need convincing of the need for immigration to help buoy the Atlantic Provinces economically. There are just as many anti-immigrant people as there is in any other place, the only difference being that it's been 100 years since the last substantial wave of immigration to the region - this time from far more diverse backgrounds.

The major urban centres of Atlantic Canada are going to naturally increase in the future. It's everywhere else (the CAs included) that are going to substantially dwindle.

That is definitely the overall trend but it is a little more complicated, of course. Biggest exception here is the Bonavista Peninsula. It's the type of place that should be dying but it is booming. Young families moving there, lots of trendy businesses and good restaurants. I think despite its small size it's probably the most interesting and cultured area outside the city, excluding St-Pierre.

It really is as impressive as Fogo Island's revitalization. And Bonavista has almost as many heritage buildings as St. John's. Not per capita, full stop.

Old town, new look: 6 new stores open in Bonavista with hopes of revitalizing town - http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/n...reet-1.3650696

'It's the perfect place for us': Millennials flock to rural Newfoundland - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfou...nity-1.4344151

The other difference here is Newfoundland is so big. Regional towns along the TCH are booming as coastal towns in the surrounding peninsulas empty out. Deer Lake, Grand Falls, Gander, Clarenville, etc. are all getting more of these internal economic migrants than St. John's. We'll be a culture of the sea where half the population lives in inland towns strung along a highway - bungalows and big box stores and little else. Thank God Fogo and Bonavista are going to make it or we'd be absolutely the worst.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

Prince Rupert, for example, is warmer than the Prairies, Northern Ontario, Ottawa and Quebec. Our second major West Coast port.

.

Prince Rupert may be warmer in terms of average temperatures but it's the classic example of a mild-but-depressing climate if there ever was one.