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  #201  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2019, 4:34 AM
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Keep in mind that this site will take at least a decade to get fully built out. To my eye, the current streetscape seems like little more than a placeholder until full buildout, and I'm fine with that.
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  #202  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2019, 2:19 PM
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Speaking of the roads, @uCitySquare tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ucitysquare/stat...051266049?s=21

Quote:
Are those flowers we see? In addition to Pivot Park, we have another outdoor space on deck....stay tuned! #uCitySquare #innovationdistrict


Not sure exactly what is going on here. I'm having trouble figuring out how this fits into the site plan they have on their website.
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  #203  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2019, 2:31 PM
phishtown phishtown is offline
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Originally Posted by Urbanthusiat View Post
Speaking of the roads, @uCitySquare tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ucitysquare/stat...051266049?s=21

Not sure exactly what is going on here. I'm having trouble figuring out how this fits into the site plan they have on their website.
Looks like temporary space similar to the beer garden on the one corner. They may close the beer garden since construction on the adjacent school is supposed to start before too long.
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  #204  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2019, 6:01 PM
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Looks like temporary space similar to the beer garden on the one corner. They may close the beer garden since construction on the adjacent school is supposed to start before too long.
This was mentioned a while ago (2017) but maybe they're only a bit over a year behind schedule on the massive temporary park?

Quote:
create a temporary park out of the space, complete with 50 trees in colorful planters, a meadow, and a wood-chipped walking path. After consulting with OLIN, UCD picked native plants and trees that will acclimate to the site and will hopefully be used in the future permanent public space.

Pedestrians will be able to walk through the pop-up meadow next summer, once the construction of 37th, Warren, and Cuthbert Streets is complete.
https://philly.curbed.com/2017/7/11/...k-philadelphia
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  #205  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2019, 1:28 AM
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Originally Posted by hammersklavier View Post
Keep in mind that this site will take at least a decade to get fully built out. To my eye, the current streetscape seems like little more than a placeholder until full buildout, and I'm fine with that.
The Science Center has been starting a new building every 18 to 24 months, along with non-SC buildings. Presently the apartment complex on Powelton Ave, the nursing school from Drexel and the new K-8th public school have all been announced. Plus it sounds like the next lab type building has been designed to some degree. All this is to say if Meds and Ed stays hot the build out might not take 10 years. I wouldn't be surprised if Penn Presyb. is a prime tenant of another building (which would also mean more parking since Penn is committed to the car), throw in the hotel if that ever happens and the space left to build on isn't much.
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  #206  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2019, 1:36 PM
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The Science Center has been starting a new building every 18 to 24 months, along with non-SC buildings. Presently the apartment complex on Powelton Ave, the nursing school from Drexel and the new K-8th public school have all been announced. Plus it sounds like the next lab type building has been designed to some degree. All this is to say if Meds and Ed stays hot the build out might not take 10 years. I wouldn't be surprised if Penn Presyb. is a prime tenant of another building (which would also mean more parking since Penn is committed to the car), throw in the hotel if that ever happens and the space left to build on isn't much.
I'm not sure it's even a question that Meds and Eds stays. That stuff takes a long time to take root, needs an extremely fertile and specific environment and can only succeed in rare locations.

We're good to go on that demographic.

Now if we can just get the Tech thing going.
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  #207  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2019, 7:18 PM
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The Science Center has been starting a new building every 18 to 24 months, along with non-SC buildings. Presently the apartment complex on Powelton Ave, the nursing school from Drexel and the new K-8th public school have all been announced. Plus it sounds like the next lab type building has been designed to some degree. All this is to say if Meds and Ed stays hot the build out might not take 10 years. I wouldn't be surprised if Penn Presyb. is a prime tenant of another building (which would also mean more parking since Penn is committed to the car), throw in the hotel if that ever happens and the space left to build on isn't much.
1. Keep in mind that the Science Center has five parcels on the ex-Uni City High site available, as well as 3400 and 3800 Market (both of which are much further advanced in design).

2. Also keep in mind the Science Center doesn't seem to have a bigger pipeline than one building at a time, for whatever reason. They've built three buildings (3737 Market, 3601 Market, and 3675 Market) since I started following development news about 12 years ago, so we're talking about 48 months on average per building.

3. A 48 mo. cycle * 7 building sites = 336 mos. or (/12) a whopping 28 years until the current land bank is exhausted.

4. 2/3 of the projects you mentioned (i.e. the school and Drexel's nursing thing) are part of the noticeably-more-aggressive Drexel pipeline and separate from the Science Center's pipeline. In any event, Drexel controls that triangular site by 38th and Warren.
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  #208  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2019, 7:44 PM
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^
For 2 and 3, past performance is no guarantee of future performance nor is it an indicator to averages of when things get built. At best, it shows past performance, but as we know buildings get built based on demand and the dynamics of the business world in its ever changing landscape and where momentum plays a huge role in what gets built. I think if uCity picks up further momentum (e.g., because of more partnerships or other complementary companies having set up shop to gain synergies) by lining up major tenants based on demand for more lab/incubator type space, or whatever, it will get built sooner rather than later-hence wiping out a 10-15-20+ year speculated timeline. At the moment, I honestly think Ucity has a better chance to get fully built before Schuylkill Yards does IMO just because what is proposed for SY are taller and bigger buildings so it's harder to fill those out unless you get a major corporation or another industry looking to establish itself(i.e., fintech or some tech to fill it out).

To hedge my bet on uCity, there's a possibility we could see some backend fintech establish here at SY in the future due to its proximity to NYC/NJ via Amtrak if parts of NJ/NYC get too priced out of commercial space or if people just can't stretch the dollars far enough there and you don't get the workforce you need to run this segment of the financial industry. So, if there's a seismic shift on fintech/backend type of office processing here en masse, then my bet would change to this getting fully built first.

Last edited by iheartphilly; Oct 4, 2019 at 11:38 PM.
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  #209  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2019, 3:50 AM
allovertown allovertown is offline
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Originally Posted by hammersklavier View Post
Keep in mind that this site will take at least a decade to get fully built out. To my eye, the current streetscape seems like little more than a placeholder until full buildout, and I'm fine with that.
This is a really good point that I hadn't really considered. It seemed strange that they'd go to the trouble, but especially in conjunction with your last post about how long it may take them to build out this area surrounding the new street, a "temporary road" could end up existing for a decade or more.

At some point there will only be one building constructed in this development, and it could be years before they build the second, much less build out this whole complex. So waiting to build out the street until all the buildings are built is not a realistic option. And even if a large section of this new street will be torn up during construction of the first building, most of it will likely stay intact for years. Might as well just build the whole street now if it helps them develop the first property.
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  #210  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2019, 5:41 PM
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Originally Posted by hammersklavier View Post
1. Keep in mind that the Science Center has five parcels on the ex-Uni City High site available, as well as 3400 and 3800 Market (both of which are much further advanced in design).

2. Also keep in mind the Science Center doesn't seem to have a bigger pipeline than one building at a time, for whatever reason. They've built three buildings (3737 Market, 3601 Market, and 3675 Market) since I started following development news about 12 years ago, so we're talking about 48 months on average per building.

3. A 48 mo. cycle * 7 building sites = 336 mos. or (/12) a whopping 28 years until the current land bank is exhausted.

4. 2/3 of the projects you mentioned (i.e. the school and Drexel's nursing thing) are part of the noticeably-more-aggressive Drexel pipeline and separate from the Science Center's pipeline. In any event, Drexel controls that triangular site by 38th and Warren.
I was thinking of just the 4 buildings that the sub-title of this section refers to, and just the general dynamic of the area. But when taking the larger picture into account, then yes you are certainly correct, and IMO it will be much longer then 10 years before the SC is any where to being 'built out'.

But in the last 6(?) years haven't there been at least 4 if not 5 buildings completed on Market St. between 36th and 38th (along with a new street), granted one of them is the apartment building. Even without the apartment tower that rate of building is much, much faster then any other time in its history. I think and hope, that this faster rate will continue.

One other factor that might further the idea of slower development of the SC is that Penn is in active renovation of more of the buildings at PennInovation complex on Gray's Ferry Ave. I am assuming that space there would be less expensive then new mid-rise towers in the SC. Once the SC partnered up their lease rates went up quite a lot and quite a few small operations moved out, meaning the SC is trying to market itself to a different market then they did 10 years ago.

In any case I would expect that in 10 years the empty land we're talking about, 36th to 38th, Warren St north to Powelton/Lancaster Ave will be around 50% filled, but mostly from non-SC projects and at least 1 new SC building. I'm not sure about whether that area can support a separate larger hotel as presently planned. I continue to believe that Penn's decisions and needs will have a large effect on what gets built here.

Last edited by City Wide; Oct 6, 2019 at 2:40 AM.
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  #211  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2019, 6:13 PM
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When all is said and done (if all goes well), the CDB will stretch all the way from 15th into the 40s through Aramark/2400 Market, Schuylkill Yards, 30th Street Station District, this development, and the Platinum Corridor. Not even so much distinct nodes as in Manhattan as it will be continuous.
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  #212  
Old Posted Oct 6, 2019, 12:17 PM
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When all is said and done (if all goes well), the CDB will stretch all the way from 15th into the 40s through Aramark/2400 Market, Schuylkill Yards, 30th Street Station District, this development, and the Platinum Corridor. Not even so much distinct nodes as in Manhattan as it will be continuous.
Best sentence I’ve read in a while.
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  #213  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 4:27 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartphilly View Post
^
For 2 and 3, past performance is no guarantee of future performance nor is it an indicator to averages of when things get built. At best, it shows past performance, but as we know buildings get built based on demand and the dynamics of the business world in its ever changing landscape and where momentum plays a huge role in what gets built. I think if uCity picks up further momentum (e.g., because of more partnerships or other complementary companies having set up shop to gain synergies) by lining up major tenants based on demand for more lab/incubator type space, or whatever, it will get built sooner rather than later-hence wiping out a 10-15-20+ year speculated timeline. At the moment, I honestly think Ucity has a better chance to get fully built before Schuylkill Yards does IMO just because what is proposed for SY are taller and bigger buildings so it's harder to fill those out unless you get a major corporation or another industry looking to establish itself(i.e., fintech or some tech to fill it out).

To hedge my bet on uCity, there's a possibility we could see some backend fintech establish here at SY in the future due to its proximity to NYC/NJ via Amtrak if parts of NJ/NYC get too priced out of commercial space or if people just can't stretch the dollars far enough there and you don't get the workforce you need to run this segment of the financial industry. So, if there's a seismic shift on fintech/backend type of office processing here en masse, then my bet would change to this getting fully built first.
Keep in mind, though, that buildings do need to take time to get built, and the Science Center seems to be performing at or near the limits of its current pipeline (i.e. there's always a project either about to start, getting built, or just wrapping up). Certainly, if there's a significant uptick in leasing, we might see the pipeline capacity doubled and hence the time it'll take to exhaust the land bank halved, but the Science Center's projects are not insignificant and I rather suspect that they would prefer to choose other options (like offloading minor leases or subleases) as long as they can get away with it.

That said, perhaps we do hit a tipping point and see the Science Center expand its pipeline. OTOH, between it, SY, and the Platinum Corridor, there's a lot of potential space in the area and I for one rather prefer the current setup where all three are getting their shares of the pie. Now, if the total demand for space in the area spikes, that would be good for all the players...
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  #214  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 12:52 PM
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About a month ago they started marketing 35 N 38th Street for lease, which is right after 3800 Market's listing changed from the whole building to just the retail space. One UCity Square is still being marketed as the whole building. Meanwhile at Schuylkill Yards, 3001 and 3025 JFK are yet to have tenants and 3000 Market's 1st and 2nd floors went up for lease a week ago
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  #215  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 6:31 PM
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Check out page 4 of this report that just came out:

http://www.ngkf.com/Uploads/FileMana...ket-Report.pdf

The University City office submarket has the highest asking rents in the entirety of Southeastern PA and had the third highest year-to-date absorption of office space. It also has the third lowest office vacancy rate in Southeastern PA.
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  #216  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 6:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Aaamazarite View Post
Check out page 4 of this report that just came out:

http://www.ngkf.com/Uploads/FileMana...ket-Report.pdf

The University City office submarket has the highest asking rents in the entirety of Southeastern PA and had the third highest year-to-date absorption of office space. It also has the third lowest office vacancy rate in Southeastern PA.
Wow, demand sure is high. That's probably why SY is so confident that they can build their JFK towers and lease them out relatively soon.

I think that uCity Square gets at least two buildings under construction that clear 200 ft by 2021.
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  #217  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Aaamazarite View Post
Check out page 4 of this report that just came out:

http://www.ngkf.com/Uploads/FileMana...ket-Report.pdf

The University City office submarket has the highest asking rents in the entirety of Southeastern PA and had the third highest year-to-date absorption of office space. It also has the third lowest office vacancy rate in Southeastern PA.
I found this interesting...
Quote:
Merck, for example, has already committed to half of the 50,000-square-foot coworking space WeWork signed for at 1100 Ludlow last quarter.
25k sq ft for a big pharma is a nice addition to center city.
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  #218  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2019, 11:32 PM
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I found this interesting...

25k sq ft for a big pharma is a nice addition to center city.
Has this materialized yet? With WeWork blowing up, I'm wondering if Merck is looking elsewhere or backed out.
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  #219  
Old Posted Nov 13, 2019, 7:51 PM
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Site work is full speed ahead, I believe this is for the Drexel building?

PicsArt_11-13-02.27.38 by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/132227479@N05[/url], on Flickr
20191113_142456 by , on Flickr
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  #220  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 3:42 PM
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Walked by yesterday and there was a zoning notice for conditional use posted on the fence that runs along Lancaster between 37th and 38th.

I didn't take a picture, but if memory serves right it was for 15-story, 225' with 300+ underground parking spaces.

The dates on the notice were very recent. I'll be back next weekend and will get a picture then.
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