Halifax Population & Growth

[halifaxboyns]

Originally Posted by BravoZulu

Not sure I'm tracking the math on this one. Wouldn't 150000 in 10 years require ~15000 per year? Or are we reaching a point where the annual increase will start to accelerate (kind of like compound interest) Thanks BZ

Wow, I need to use a calculator when I do math! I meant to say 75,000 (roughly 6,000 +/- a year).

[BravoZulu]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

Wow, I need to use a calculator when I do math! I meant to say 75,000 (roughly 6,000 +/- a year).

Ok I thought I was missing something thanks.

I'm sure there will be a point where our population will start to generate more interest in Halifax though and our annual growth will increase just because we have become a big enough centre to interest people. For example, I have plenty of friends who have moved to Toronto/Vancouver just because they wanted the big city life that Halifax couldn't offer.

Having lived in Winnipeg and Quebec city myself (which are only a couple hundred thousand larger than Halifax) I still notice a difference in services offered/ammenities that Halifax doesn't have but you don't hear of that many people picking up and moving to either of them, it always tends to be the big three Toronto Vancouver Montreal. I just figure there has to be a point where Halifax will be large enough to attract back some of the people who have left and become an option for others looking to move to a "big city"

[SignalHillHiker]

I'd be very surprised if Halifax's growth doesn't exceed most of the expectations/predictions expressed here.

And we still don't know what the results of Nova Scotia's offshore oil exploration will be. What if they find something massive? Then the already underestimated predictions will be completely out of whack.

I expect to see the HRM at more than 500,000 well within my lifetime, soon enough that, if I live to a ripe old age, I may even see close to 50,000 more than that.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by BravoZulu

Ok I thought I was missing something thanks.

I'm sure there will be a point where our population will start to generate more interest in Halifax though and our annual growth will increase just because we have become a big enough centre to interest people. For example, I have plenty of friends who have moved to Toronto/Vancouver just because they wanted the big city life that Halifax couldn't offer.

Having lived in Winnipeg and Quebec city myself (which are only a couple hundred thousand larger than Halifax) I still notice a difference in services offered/ammenities that Halifax doesn't have but you don't hear of that many people picking up and moving to either of them, it always tends to be the big three Toronto Vancouver Montreal. I just figure there has to be a point where Halifax will be large enough to attract back some of the people who have left and become an option for others looking to move to a "big city"

I dunno about inter-provincial migration, but in terms of where international immigrants are settling, Toronto and Vancouver are actually losing share of new immigrants in recent years. The Maritimes, surprisingly to some people, have dramatically increased their immigrant intake and retention. (Granted, when your immigrant intake is so low, it's easy for small increases to have a big impact, percentage-wise, and we ned to do even better still.)

And the prairies are really booming, even the small cities like Regina. So big-city appeal isn't necessarily all it's cracked up to be, at least when it comes to foreign immigration.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by BravoZulu

I'm sure there will be a point where our population will start to generate more interest in Halifax though and our annual growth will increase just because we have become a big enough centre to interest people. For example, I have plenty of friends who have moved to Toronto/Vancouver just because they wanted the big city life that Halifax couldn't offer.

My sense from talking to some older people is that there's already a big difference between Halifax now and the way it was in, say, 1960. I have even noticed a bit of a change since the 1990's. The gap between what you can get in Halifax and Toronto or Montreal is not as big as it used to be. The job market is similar; in the 1970's Halifax was a big step down from Ontario but it isn't anymore outside of, say, head office type jobs that you find in Toronto. Most people aren't looking for jobs like those.

Something else to keep in mind is that a certain percentage of people always want to try out living in different places. The difference is that if they are born in NYC they say they are exploring, but if they leave Halifax their reason for leaving is interpreted as an indication that there's something wrong with the city. Hopefully people will get out of that negative mindset in the future; it's really tiresome.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I dunno about inter-provincial migration, but in terms of where international immigrants are settling, Toronto and Vancouver are actually losing share of new immigrants in recent years. The Maritimes, surprisingly to some people, have dramatically increased their immigrant intake and retention. (Granted, when your immigrant intake is so low, it's easy for small increases to have a big impact, percentage-wise, and we ned to do even better still.)

Places like Toronto and Vancouver are not actually that great for most average people. They are destinations mostly because they have large immigrant communities and because they are less obscure than Regina type places. They have big downsides though; Vancouver's extremely unaffordable and Toronto has long commute times (or it is unaffordable to live near where you work, depending on how you look at it).

It used to be true that cities like Toronto were where you had to go if you wanted good jobs, but that's less and less true. The job market in Regina might be better than the job market in Toronto, even for immigrants. If you're a newcomer who can land an average job, your standard of living will probably be higher in Regina than in Toronto.

I'm not sure if it's still true but the Toronto CMA also had net negative migration within Canada. Most of those people probably just leave for places like Kitchener-Waterloo, but in general a lot of them are probably looking for more affordable places to live. I think Canada over the next 20 years will see a similar progression to what the US has experienced over the last 30, which is a shift in growth from the big metropolises (NYC, LA, Chicago) to mid-sized cities with good economies that are more affordable and manageable (places like Austin).

One downside for Halifax is that NS is a high-tax jurisdiction, so it's not actually that cheap of a place to live in.

[Wishblade]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I'd be very surprised if Halifax's growth doesn't exceed most of the expectations/predictions expressed here.

And we still don't know what the results of Nova Scotia's offshore oil exploration will be. What if they find something massive? Then the already underestimated predictions will be completely out of whack.

I expect to see the HRM at more than 500,000 well within my lifetime, soon enough that, if I live to a ripe old age, I may even see close to 50,000 more than that.

You must be pushing about 60 or 65 then?

[q12]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I expect to see the HRM at more than 500,000 well within my lifetime, soon enough that, if I live to a ripe old age, I may even see close to 50,000 more than that.

Since currently today we are at 417,000 (approx.) to get to 500,000 we only need to add 83,000 more which will probably only take 10-15 years.

[Cold_Mixer]

Originally Posted by someone123

Places like Toronto and Vancouver are not actually that great for most average people.

I disagree, but it is more a question of what kind of lifestyle you prefer. For some, a mid-size or smaller city is big enough, but for others, they prefer the energy and dynamics of a larger center. These tend to be the hubs of progress and culture. (Disclaimer - I am now in Toronto but grew up and lived in Halifax until 2011.)

I enjoy being able to leave the car at home and use an extensive modern transit system, the chance to experience all manner of cultures, cuisine, entertainment, a wealth of educational and job opportunities, all benefits of being located in a major hub of financial, cultural, and social progress. Of course it is far from perfect and nowhere near a paradise on Earth, and there are many things I miss about home. But I think this city will continue to be one of the main centers of action during my lifetime, and that is important at this stage of my life.

They have big downsides though; Vancouver's extremely unaffordable and Toronto has long commute times (or it is unaffordable to live near where you work, depending on how you look at it).

Halifax (and NS in general) has big downsides, too. Lack of vision, poor management, sketchy economy, and lest we forget, disproportionately high taxes that punish citizens and small business. It is not a draw for corporate interests (without lucrative bribes on the backs of taxpayers), travel costs are much higher due to the extra hops needed to get anywhere, health is suffering due to higher rates of obesity and disease, the population is aging, and the politicians have sold everyone out to line their own pockets and those of their cronies. The last time I walked down Barrington Street it was starting to look like a wasteland of neglect and decay, nothing like it used to be when I was growing up.

People are leaving not because they hate the place but because they are not feeling overly optimistic about the long-term future. For those of us with a substantial amount of working years ahead of us, there needs to be a heartbeat, some lifeblood, a feeling that there are opportunities available. After decades of stagnant wages and heavy taxes, there needs to be more to life than just ocean breezes and pleasant scenery. The best resource in NS is the people, but the gov't just sees them as cattle to be herded and milked dry.

If you're a newcomer who can land an average job, your standard of living will probably be higher in Regina than in Toronto.

Perhaps, but again, everyone has different standards. For some, a more expensive rent or mortgage is worth the side benefits of living in a particular city. For others, not so much.

I think Canada over the next 20 years will see a similar progression to what the US has experienced over the last 30, which is a shift in growth from the big metropolises (NYC, LA, Chicago) to mid-sized cities with good economies that are more affordable and manageable (places like Austin).

Energy shortages might throw a wrench in that prediction. In any event, without major changes to how it is managed, NS is simply going to have a hard time competing with major urban centers. Many smaller cities and towns in Southern Ontario would boom long before the residual waves wash onto the shores of the Maritimes.

One downside for Halifax is that NS is a high-tax jurisdiction, so it's not actually that cheap of a place to live in.

Exactly. And some of us want more bang for our buck rather than see our dollars going into corporate coffers and gold-plated MLA pensions and expense accounts, all while being told that we need to be more frugal and suffer cutbacks to education and health. All governments are sh*tty, but in some areas you have more of a fighting chance.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Glad you like Toronto so much as it's good to live in a place that you like.

Been there many many times (for both work and vacation) and my favourite part is always the trip home from there.

Enjoy!

[Drybrain]

I'm not going to disagree too extensively because I think you get at some really legitimate points about the province and city, and there are people who feel frustrated. But I have to address a few things:

Originally Posted by Cold_Mixer

I enjoy being able to leave the car at home and use an extensive modern transit system.

Oh good lord, Toronto's transit system is horrendous. The TTC has become a civic joke, running at least 20 years behind the times. It's GREAT if you live and work along a subway line, but most people don't. The streetcars drag along epically slowly, suburban areas are served by buses that trundle for hours along miles of wasteland-ish suburban arterials (meaning that the poorest people get the worst transit service), and the political will needed to bolster the transit system has been held back by years of in-fighting and bickering over what to do—meaning that nothing has been done. And there's no money to do it. Here's a good backgrounder on how screwed up it is. They've got a half-century old subway system that's barely been expanded, and that's about it.

The last time I walked down Barrington Street it was starting to look like a wasteland of neglect and decay, nothing like it used to be when I was growing up.

Really? I think, slowly, the opposite is happening, very obviously. There's been a tangible degree of re-investment in the street. It looks a lot better than it did five years ago, and will look better still in the near future.

For some, a more expensive rent or mortgage is worth the side benefits of living in a particular city.

The problem is that in central Toronto, it's actually getting IMPOSSIBLE to buy a home for many middle-income people. It's not like, "I'll spend more on my home but have access to more city." They CAN'T afford to live there, at all.

Energy shortages might throw a wrench in that prediction. In any event, without major changes to how it is managed, NS is simply going to have a hard time competing with major urban centers. Many smaller cities and towns in Southern Ontario would boom long before the residual waves wash onto the shores of the Maritimes.

Not sure about that. It's about improving the indigenous economy here. London and Windsor aren't half the city that Halifax is, and they don't have the draw of being regional centres. I disagree on that front, for sure.

The population is aging everywhere, provincial debt is actually much worse, per capita, in Ontario, and unemployment is higher in Toronto. (And talk about the situation with precarious/part-time work...a job hunt in Toronto is no fun nowadays. Trust me, I was doing it a couple of years ago.)

I've long maintained that the situation in Nova Scotia is not nearly as bad as we're always hearing, but a big part of the problem is perception. People believe we're doomed, and it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Really, the challenges we face are similar to the challenges faced everywhere, but our rural economy is doing significantly worse, which is having a serious drag-down effect on the whole economy.

[worldlyhaligonian]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I'm not going to disagree too extensively because I think you get at some really legitimate points about the province and city, and there are people who feel frustrated. But I have to address a few things:



Oh good lord, Toronto's transit system is horrendous. The TTC has become a civic joke, running at least 20 years behind the times. It's GREAT if you live and work along a subway line, but most people don't. The streetcars drag along epically slowly, suburban areas are served by buses that trundle for hours along miles of wasteland-ish suburban arterials (meaning that the poorest people get the worst transit service), and the political will needed to bolster the transit system has been held back by years of in-fighting and bickering over what to do—meaning that nothing has been done. And there's no money to do it. Here's a good backgrounder on how screwed up it is. They've got a half-century old subway system that's barely been expanded, and that's about it.




Really? I think, slowly, the opposite is happening, very obviously. There's been a tangible degree of re-investment in the street. It looks a lot better than it did five years ago, and will look better still in the near future.



The problem is that in central Toronto, it's actually getting IMPOSSIBLE to buy a home for many middle-income people. It's not like, "I'll spend more on my home but have access to more city." They CAN'T afford to live there, at all.



Not sure about that. It's about improving the indigenous economy here. London and Windsor aren't half the city that Halifax is, and they don't have the draw of being regional centres. I disagree on that front, for sure.

The population is aging everywhere, provincial debt is actually much worse, per capita, in Ontario, and unemployment is higher in Toronto. (And talk about the situation with precarious/part-time work...a job hunt in Toronto is no fun nowadays. Trust me, I was doing it a couple of years ago.)

I've long maintained that the situation in Nova Scotia is not nearly as bad as we're always hearing, but a big part of the problem is perception. People believe we're doomed, and it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Really, the challenges we face are similar to the challenges faced everywhere, but our rural economy is doing significantly worse, which is having a serious drag-down effect on the whole economy.

Rental prices are as cheap as Halifax and there is more selection. Also, the TTC is amazing, I don't care what people are saying. Just living in TORONTO, not another city.

I've lived in Toronto twice. Its a fine city... nobody has any ground to comment from a visit.

[Cold_Mixer]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Oh good lord, Toronto's transit system is horrendous. The TTC has become a civic joke, running at least 20 years behind the times...

Lol, "horrendous" is a strong word but you are absolutely correct that the city has fallen way behind. Compared to places like NYC, the Toronto system is a complete laughing stock. But, that being said, I find it much easier to get around on public transit here than I ever did in Halifax. Does it need work? God, yes. But initiatives to improve it are underway, and better late than never.

I think the difference is in perception and mentality - here, it is much LESS convenient to drive downtown than to commute on transit, while in Halifax it is the complete opposite. Also, there is a tendency to shun rather than embrace public transit in Halifax, i.e. you'll never hear the bus referred to as a "Loser Cruiser" in the GTA...

Really? I think, slowly, the opposite is happening, very obviously. There's been a tangible degree of re-investment in the street. It looks a lot better than it did five years ago, and will look better still in the near future.

I hope you're right. The last time I was there it was full of boarded-up and half-demolished buildings, empty and closed storefronts for lease, and just felt like it was in decline. The downtown core as a whole seemed to be suffering the past decade. I remember articles about restaurants and retailers mentioning that activity was drying up.

The problem is that in central Toronto, it's actually getting IMPOSSIBLE to buy a home for many middle-income people. It's not like, "I'll spend more on my home but have access to more city." They CAN'T afford to live there, at all.

But many people rent, and there are still affordable rentals all over the city that are decent and close to transit. We are renting a 2 bedroom condo near mid-town right on the Yonge subway for much less than it would cost to buy. And I think that the ridiculous housing appreciation of the past decade is going to correct very soon. There will soon be a glut of rentals competing in downtown Toronto as all the speculators discover there are no buyers for their half-million dollar plus boxes.

The population is aging everywhere, provincial debt is actually much worse, per capita, in Ontario, and unemployment is higher in Toronto. (And talk about the situation with precarious/part-time work...a job hunt in Toronto is no fun nowadays. Trust me, I was doing it a couple of years ago.)

Yes, things are tough all over. But one key difference is that companies (and many people) still want to be in Ontario or GTA due to location and other factors, whereas they usually have to be bribed or coerced to locate in NS. My point is that big business tends to be attracted to the major cities like Calgary and Toronto, which ripples through everything else. I just don't see the same advantage in the Maritimes. I see an economy based on illusions and the cups-and-balls routine rather than on sound fundamentals.

Really, the challenges we face are similar to the challenges faced everywhere, but our rural economy is doing significantly worse, which is having a serious drag-down effect on the whole economy.

I don't see how that is going to change any time soon, and my optimism diminished several years ago after getting tired of hearing promises of what was just around the corner, or just down the road, always slightly out of reach. Smaller cities like Halifax are like the "rural" areas of Canada, and will likely continue to suffer in the bigger picture.

Cities like Toronto and Calgary will suffer too, but there will always be more interest and action taken in stopping the bleeding (as major centers of economic importance). I don't think the leadership in NS (and this goes for all parties) has much interest in anything other than short-term band-aid solutions designed to carry them through to the next election.

I hope it gets better in NS. I really do. Many of my friends and family are still there and it is where my best memories are. Its just that right now, for various reasons both personal and professional, this is the better place for us to be.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by worldlyhaligonian

Rental prices are as cheap as Halifax and there is more selection. Also, the TTC is amazing, I don't care what people are saying. Just living in TORONTO, not another city.

I've lived in Toronto twice. Its a fine city... nobody has any ground to comment from a visit.

Dude, I lived in Toronto for five years, in four different neighbourhoods. TTC is not amazing—ask anyone involved in local civic-planning issues. It's a decent system if you're downtown. Otherwise, it's awful, and it's horribly far behind.

And rental prices are not the same as in Halifax. Check out this CMHC chart, which I have no reason to believe is incorrect.

[someone123]

There's a big distinction to be made between personal circumstances or preferences and average conditions in different cities. People who consider big city amenities important will prefer cities like Toronto, and some people will find much better opportunities there.

Here is some hard data from Statistics Canada.

Median total income, all census families 2010 (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm)

Halifax CMA - $76,500 (+8,900 since 2006)
Toronto CMA - $68,110 (+4,310 since 2006)

Labour force characteristics: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss04f-eng.htm

Halifax - Employment Rate 64.9%, Unemployment Rate 6.0%
Toronto - Employment Rate 62.4%, Unemployment Rate 7.7%

My guess is that the median house is much more affordable in Halifax than Toronto too.

These numbers are not consistent with the idea that Halifax is much worse off than a city like Toronto. This is a big departure from what you would have seen in, say, 1993, and that was the point of my original post. Many other small cities also measure up much better now than they did in the past.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by worldlyhaligonian

I've lived in Toronto twice. Its a fine city... nobody has any ground to comment from a visit.

Not saying it isn't a fine city, but it's all in what you want out of life. Been there enough times and have many friends and family members living there to have a good feel for what it is like to live there. Don't think it's fair for you to make a judgement about who has a ground to comment or not. Sorry, but TO is not for me.

BTW, I was just giving the perspective of somebody who prefers "ocean breezes and pleasant scenery" over what Toronto has to offer.

FWIW, Halifax has a lot of what TO has, but just on a smaller scale (i.e. arts, culture, varied selection of good restaurants, a fine multicultural cross section of the population, etc.), plus ocean breezes and pleasant scenery. Oh yes... and fresh seafood.

While smaller than Niagra, Nova Scotia has a developing wine industry that features many varietals that do not prosper in most other climates, some which have won international acclaim (http://www.tasteofnovascotia.com/new...ational-stage/).

As you can tell, I like where I live and feel it is only fair to provide a counterpoint to a post by somebody outlining the reasons why they left here.

As I said, it's important to like where you live, wherever in the world that is, and I encourage and applaud anybody who has the wherewithal to do so.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Cold_Mixer

I think the difference is in perception and mentality - here, it is much LESS convenient to drive downtown than to commute on transit, while in Halifax it is the complete opposite. Also, there is a tendency to shun rather than embrace public transit in Halifax, i.e. you'll never hear the bus referred to as a "Loser Cruiser" in the GTA...

Totally true. It's a paradigm shift that needs to happen, and won't really unless the city grows to a certain size.

I hope you're right. The last time I was there it was full of boarded-up and half-demolished buildings, empty and closed storefronts for lease, and just felt like it was in decline. The downtown core as a whole seemed to be suffering the past decade. I remember articles about restaurants and retailers mentioning that activity was drying up.

Yeah, but there's perception and reality. Data on the ground indicate that there is an upswing, and the number of restoration/renovation projects is really picking up.

But many people rent, and there are still affordable rentals all over the city that are decent and close to transit. We are renting a 2 bedroom condo near mid-town right on the Yonge subway for much less than it would cost to buy. And I think that the ridiculous housing appreciation of the past decade is going to correct very soon. There will soon be a glut of rentals competing in downtown Toronto as all the speculators discover there are no buyers for their half-million dollar plus boxes.

Sadly, I don't think the real estate market is gonna bust that much, just stop appreciating so much.

As far as the rental market, there are now bidding wars for rentals, driving up prices. If you want an apartment you have to come armed with references, a credit check that you pay for personally (landlords rarely do it) and a willingness to outbid other renters. I was stuck in a cheapish but kinda crummy apartment for two years, that I was afraid to leave, because most of my friends in apartment hunts ended up having to crash with other friends, family, etc., since they simply couldn't find a place. And a lot were earning decent incomes, too.

I don't see how that is going to change any time soon, and my optimism diminished several years ago after getting tired of hearing promises of what was just around the corner, or just down the road, always slightly out of reach. Smaller cities like Halifax are like the "rural" areas of Canada, and will likely continue to suffer in the bigger picture.

Mmm, yes and no. There are loads of smaller cities in the U.S. that have completely turned their economies around—both Portlands, Pittsburgh, Providence—despite being located in economically dicey areas. There's no reason that Halifax, as a robust, compact city, couldn't use the model of other successful New England cities (i.e., promoting arts, a strong local tech and start-up sector, etc.) to lessen its dependence on the overall regional economy—or even improve said economy.

And hey, the Atlantic region doubled its share of Canada's immigrants in the past half decade. Toronto's share was cut in half, largely due to cost of living and the fact that new immigrants aren't doing as well there anymore.

I absolutely get why you would want to be in a bigger city, especially depending on what kind of career you have. I did too—but I definitely found that the grass wasn't that much greener.

[Cold_Mixer]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

FWIW, Halifax has a lot of what TO has, but just on a smaller scale (i.e. arts, culture, varied selection of good restaurants, a fine multicultural cross section of the population, etc.), plus ocean breezes and pleasant scenery. Oh yes... and fresh seafood.

Agree wholeheartedly.

As you can tell, I like where I live and feel it is only fair to provide a counterpoint to a post by somebody outlining the reasons why they left here.

Actually, in my case the reasons I've described were secondary considerations. Job transfer brought us here.

As I said, it's important to like where you live, wherever in the world that is, and I encourage and applaud anybody who has the wherewithal to do so.

I liked living in Halifax and I like living in Toronto. Both have pros and cons, good points and bad. But back in Jan when I was watching Soundgarden kick it at the Sound Academy, I was SO glad to be here.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Cold_Mixer

I liked living in Halifax and I like living in Toronto. Both have pros and cons, good points and bad. But back in Jan when I was watching Soundgarden kick it at the Sound Academy, I was SO glad to be here.

Oh yeah. I'm going there to see Nick Cave at Massey Hall in a few weeks. There are definitely drawbacks to living in a place where international touring acts rarely stop.

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by worldlyhaligonian

Also, the TTC is amazing, I don't care what people are saying. Just living in TORONTO, not another city.

I think it's a matter of perspective. Most people I know who grew up in Toronto but not directly on one of the subway lines, hate the subway and think of it as a grungy old system that never gets expanded and is only useful for the lucky "few" who live along one of the lines. On the other hand, most people I know who moved to Toronto from elsewhere love the TTC because they made a conscious effort to live near a subway station or other major transit terminal. So in short, it works great for those who deliberately plan their lives around using transit, but for people who just live in Toronto incidentally, it doesn't necessarily.