Population projections for London

[MolsonExport]

What are your thoughts on future population figures for London (city, CMA)? With or without High Speed Rail connections? What could set us on a faster growth trajectory, along the lines of Kitchener-Waterloo? Is this city condemned to mediocre growth? How can we get a larger proportion of UWO grads to stay in London?

You may prefer to use a formula, like this one.
N=No*e^(r*t)
N = Future Population
No = Starting population
r = growth rate
t= number of years.
e=2.71828 (constant)

Without high speed rail, I project a mediocre 0.75% growth rate per annum. With high speed rail (QC-Windsor corridor), I predict that London would be much more appealing to business and people alike (esp. with the growth of the GTA) and I would instead project a 1% growth rate per annum.

[MolsonExport]

Just to throw some numbers around here are my unscientific estimates:


without HSR (high speed rail), 2030 projection: 565,000 (metro, increase of 100K over current)
with HSR, 2030 projection: 650,000 (metro, increase of 185K over current)

[FazDeH]

^^^ I think your HSR figure is unrealistic, and theres only one reason I say this, the time it will take for the HSR system to be up and working? Is more then likely over a decade from now, and the idea of London being a suburb of Toronto based on the HSR riders will probably not be a consideration for several years after that. I would assume that 10 years of HSR would bring less then 30,000 people to the London CMA.
I do feel that 100,000 people is a probable reflection of our growth and developement, and I'll bet that more then 60% of that will be new imigrants to Canada. I'm basing that assumption on what our birth/death rate at that point will be because of the baby boomers.

[MolsonExport]

well what do you know. 2031 Stats Canada projections.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-551-...tbl016-eng.htm

High range has London CMA at 589,000 (midrange 554,000)

[GreatTallNorth2]

I'm surprised at their estimate of Windsor - 512,000. That's not far behind London and their economy is doing worse than ours. I'm also surprised at the low estimate of Quebec City - 712,000. It's economy seems to be doing well.

[MolsonExport]

Goddammit why the fark is it taking so goddamn fucking long to get HSR here in Canada? How many fucking years; how many fucking studies; how much bullshit?

[haljackey]

If construction doesn't start by the end of the decade, our economy is screwed.

It's as simple as that.


If we built a true HSR line long ago, our economy would be in much better shape. Having North America's only true HSR line would attract so many it's ridiculous.

[MolsonExport]

Just got back from Europe. HSR is everywhere. hourly trips to the major centres of Paris, London, Brussells, Lyon, Amsterdam, Lille, etc. Riding the TGV and Eurostar is a dream.

[Snark]

As long as a bunch of Alberta neo-cons are running the country - forget it. In the minds of such folks, HSR is a communist plot designed to thwart god-fearing free enterprises such as the "harvesting of natural resources".

Such people care nothing for the future of the nation, as they would rather see the nation dissolved and merged with the state of Texas. You know - that place where they execute retarded people.

Oh, and BTW, the only province in the country where they mutilate and kill animals in a Romanesque arena blood sport and call it "entertainment"

These people are running our country. As long as that remains the fact, progressive ideas such as HSR will never be considered. The real problem is that, even after they loose power (whenever that is), that economic structure and situation will likely prevent the next government from carrying out any mega projects of the scale of HSR.

[ssiguy]

Funny that despite the Conservatives not doing well is the largest cities of Winnipeg and eastwards they have done more for the country's cities than the any government in living memory.
All cities have been receiving gas tax revenue, large sums for transit and other infrastructure, and the transit tax exemption.
Despite all the bitching towards Harper he has been a god send for the cities of Canada.
As for StatsCan projections some of them are ridiculous. Windsor isn't growing at all so I think it will be lucky to hit 400,000. Quebec City is ALREADY 740,000 so how it will shrink is anyone's guess. It is growing a good clip. By 2013 I think it, like Winnipeg and Hamilton, will be narrowing in on the one million mark.
London's estimate is far too low. According to StatsCan London already had 490,000 in 2009. The city has 380,000. London is growing faster than most Ontario cities at approx 1.1% a year.
Even if growth is half that rate it still puts the metro about 580,000.
I think some of those StasCan numbers are way off base.

[ssiguy]

Just to confirm why I believe these number are unreliable check out Toronto.................it has it's 2006 population figure LOWER than Montreal at 3.4 million.

[Blitz]

When StatsCan released their projection report they explained Windsor's numbers as being the result of a huge influx of immigrants between now and 2031 - they are predicting 33% visible minority population in the metro area by that time based on the large immigrant population already in place, the low-cost real estate, and the shift toward new types of industry.
There aren't any jobs in town right now but that could change in time, historically it's been a boom/bust population trend around here so it's really unpredictable.

[MolsonExport]

Windsor goes as does Detroit. Which currently, is not very good at all.

[Snark]

Population projections are a lot like weather predicting: the farther you go from present day, the more uncertainty exists. This is because predictions are based on extrapolating current situations and trends. Of course, the further one gets from present day, the greater number of variables that cannot be predicted crop up, usually deviating those current trends and messing up the original prediction. Reading some predictions (or lack thereof) of events that directly effect Ontario for example:

-The 70's population predictions for Ontario cities are at times humorous compared to how things really worked out.

-The North American auto sector would be brought to it's knees, by all things property and mortgage speculation on Wall Street.

-9/11. Enuf said

-The central core areas of Detroit are being plowed under for corn fields. Try telling someone that 20 years ago.

-The fall from within of the global communist empire within a 2 year timespan, and the subsequent shrinkage of the American military industrial complex to current levels

Now couple past events such as that with the current reality that we are globally integrated, and that developments a world away can affect the socio-economic situation in this part of the world, and things get really random. The Butterfly Effect is more than alive and well - it's everything.

The world is in rapid transition from an old paradigm to a new one not really formed yet. Predictions on anything but a broad scale are very risky. For example, safe predictions are:

- China will grow
- Urbanization will continue in Canada
- Africa will founder for a while to come
- The struggle for clean water will grow more serious
- Porn will continue to dominate the internet

Everything else is conjecture.


Oh, and PS: ssiguy, all I can say is that your notion of living memory must only go back 20 or so years. You may not have been around in the 70's, or even the first half of the 80's. Gas tax rebates and such are helpful, but come no where close to the situation of yesteryear, I assure you.

[waughste3]

Don't forget that the city has lots of land south of Highway 401.

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by waughste3

Don't forget that the city has lots of land south of Highway 401.

Yeah but it's beyond the urban growth boundary, and there's no pumping station to get large amounts of water to the area, so development there won't happen for at least 20 years.

Currently the only part of the urban growth boundary that is south of the 401 is between Wellington and Highbury, so essentially what exists now. Further west, the urban growth boundary follows Digman Drive, so just south of the 402.

I think developing the 401/402 corridor is a good idea. It's prime industrial and commercial land since it's close to the highways, and it will make London seem a little bigger to passing motorists bypassing the city.

I was in Niagara Falls not long ago, and one of the locals told me they thought London had 50,000 people... I understand why they think this because if they don't read the population sign coming into the city London seems like a small town. Metro area considered, we're actually close to 500,000, 10x more than what the Niagara Falls resident thought.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by haljackey

I was in Niagara Falls not long ago, and one of the locals told me they thought London had 50,000 people... I understand why they think this because if they don't read the population sign coming into the city London seems like a small town. Metro area considered, we're actually close to 500,000, 10x more than what the Niagara Falls resident thought.

That is a common perception across Canada - when I was in the Maritimes it was interesting telling the locals that London was bigger than Halifax. Most had never even heard of a London in Canada.

[Kokkei Mizu]

Originally Posted by haljackey

Yeah but it's beyond the urban growth boundary, and there's no pumping station to get large amounts of water to the area, so development there won't happen for at least 20 years.

I thought they are building a water pumping station south of the 401 right now on Highbury... Won't this mean development will be feasible once it's completed?

[haljackey]

Originally Posted by Kokkei Mizu

I thought they are building a water pumping station south of the 401 right now on Highbury... Won't this mean development will be feasible once it's completed?

Maybe so but it also needs that urban growth boundary extended, not to mention a new sewage plant. It won't happen until 2028 according to this article from the London Free Press:

Our final frontier
http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2.../15040021.html

The article is quite long so I linked it, but it is worth the read.

[Kokkei Mizu]

Originally Posted by haljackey

Maybe so but it also needs that urban growth boundary extended, not to mention a new sewage plant. It won't happen until 2028 according to this article from the London Free Press:

Our final frontier
http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2.../15040021.html

The article is quite long so I linked it, but it is worth the read.

Thanks for the link! That is awesome to hear they're developing that part of the city eventually. My favourite part of the plan is that they're looking at street grids again! I don't know when people thought twisty roads was a good thing! Anyway, I wonder about south of the 401 though; this is still north.