Homicide stats in Canadian Cities

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Indeed. Although the accused's last name is Leblanc, which doesn't follow the usual pattern these days.

A throwback to more traditional days!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

A throwback to more traditional days!

Even more than you think! That Leblanc guy's first name is Michael. Not Michel.

My dad has an armchair theory about this stuff. Well, in his case it's more than armchair... but I won't get into too many details.

Wanna hear it?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even more than you think! That Leblanc guy's first name is Michael. Not Michel.

My dad has an armchair theory about this stuff. Well, in his case it's more than armchair... but I won't get into too many details.

Wanna hear it?

Go for it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Go for it.

Well, my did isn't much of a francophone nationalist or rah-rah-rah type, but when I was a kid he used to point out when watching the news how a large proportion of people in trouble with the law seemed to be assimilated francophones. Or at least who could be assumed to be assimilated francophones. People with names like Gordon Desormeaux, Mackenzie Duguay, Sheldon DeLaDurantaye, etc. were more likely to get into trouble.

Anyway, that was his observation.

Somewhat ironically, most of his grandkids are going to be anglophones with French surnames (with passable second-language French if we're lucky), although they all have francophone given names or given names that work in both languages like Patrick or Melanie.

I doubt any of them will get in trouble with the law, regardless of their grandfather's theory.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Well, my did isn't much of a francophone nationalist or rah-rah-rah type, but when I was a kid he used to point out when watching the news how a large proportion of people in trouble with the law seemed to be assimilated francophones. Or at least who could be assumed to be assimilated francophones. People with names like Gordon Desormeaux, Mackenzie Duguay, Sheldon DeLaDurantaye, etc. were more likely to get into trouble.

Anyway, that was his observation.

Somewhat ironically, most of his grandkids are going to be anglophones with French surnames (with passable second-language French if we're lucky), although they all have francophone given names or given names that work in both languages like Patrick or Melanie.

I doubt any of them will get in trouble with the law, regardless of their grandfather's theory.

I doubt that the rate of criminality would be much different from that of their peers across the river, so I'm not sure that assimilation per se would be a factor, unless you're tying assimilation to low social/economic status, which one might be able (with effort) to argue, at least in the Ottawa context.

By the way "Mackenzie Duguay" might be the most Canadian name I've ever seen!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I doubt that the rate of criminality would be much different from that of their peers across the river, so I'm not sure that assimilation per se would be a factor, unless you're tying assimilation to low social/economic status, which one might be able (with effort) to argue, at least in the Ottawa context.

I think that's what my dad had in mind. He did not equate being anglo with being lower class or more prone to be involved in crime at all. Quite the contrary in fact, and that wouldn't be his style anyway.

But francophones that became anglos? There may have been something there, in his mind.

[Acajack]

Ottawa now at 4. Two in two days.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ottawa now at 4. Two in two days.

Another young vismin male "known to the police". At least it was on the west side of town this time.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ottawa now at 4. Two in two days.

That seems to be a bit high for Ottawa... you've almost caught up to us (5).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by esquire

That seems to be a bit high for Ottawa... you've almost caught up to us (5).

Yes, Ottawa's annual total is often in the single digits.

If this pace kept up Ottawa would end up with 24 murders in 2016. This would be close to unprecedented I am quite sure (can't find any official stats), but still "only" a rate of 2.4 per 100,000.

Ottawa's homicide rate is generally in the 1 to 1.5 range.

But when you look at what's going on and the frequency of shootings especially (which have skyrocketed), it is a tad worrisome.

It doesn't take much for things to spiral out of control, and for 30-40 murders a year to become the "new normal" for a city like Ottawa that used to be accustomed to a half-dozen or so.

[esquire]

^ Yeah, in reality jumping from 6 to 24 or so is trivial in the context of a city that large, but it does get jarring psychologically seeing murder headlines on the front page of the papers on a seemingly regular basis.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ Yeah, in reality jumping from 6 to 24 or so is trivial in the context of a city that large, but it does get jarring psychologically seeing murder headlines on the front page of the papers on a seemingly regular basis.

Unless there is something happening behind the scenes, like a fight for control of local drug trafficking or organized crime, an upsurge of that scale would be unlikely. At the moment, it seems more like isolated disputes among members of the gang underclass.

[nephersir7]

Originally Posted by begratto

I don't know if the data is up to date, but if it is, there hasn't been a single murder in the entire province of Quebec since Jan 1st - that's almost 6 weeks. Impressive!

January: 0
February: 1
March: 1 so far:

Man linked to Rizzuto clan shot dead in Laval:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montre...aval-1.3470750

[Darkoshvilli]

Still zero in Montreal.

[softee]

Another fatal shooting last night brings Toronto to 16.

[esquire]

Winnipeg is up to 6.

Classically sad story where some random guy is set upon by some scuzzball lowlifes on north Main Street.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by Darkoshvilli

Still zero in Montreal.

incroyable, on va peut-être finir l'année sous les 15 si tout va bien.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by esquire

Winnipeg is up to 6.

It looks like this is going to be a bad year for murders.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

It looks like this is going to be a bad year for murders.

It's looking that way. Winnipeg's impoverished underclasses and substance abusers/sellers are lashing out with exceptional ferocity so far in 2016.

[caltrane74]

Originally Posted by softee

Another fatal shooting last night brings Toronto to 16.

This is where Toronto should be at the end of March. We are 4 weeks ahead of schedule this year, and summer is usually the worst period for killings. Looks like Toronto will end up in the 60 to 70 range this year. Which is a spike.