Quote:
Originally Posted by teddifax
I have always wondered what our population in Halifax would be if the Halifax Explosion hadn't happened. I believe it must have had a profound effect on it.
|
I think so also. (this might be a bit off-topic)
Referring to the table below, as a conservative assumption let's assume that the 1921 population increase would have been 25% without the explosion, instead of the actual 21.1% which was lowered by the direct loss of life and fewer children born because of the large number of injuries.
It is difficult to predict how long it took for the city to completely recover but looking at the population increase by decade, Halifax county had a 3.1% increase between 1921 - 1931 even though this was a prosperous decade in North America (in spite of the 1929 stock market crash) and such a stagnation of population was not seen in the rest of Canada -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populat...Canada_by_year. The decades from 1911 to 1961 saw a dramatic jump in population for Halifax County in spite of the 1917 explosion. Halifax, by today's standards, was a booming city (no pun intended).
As an assumption, if the explosion did not occur, I think that the population increase in 1921 would have been about 25% (a few percent higher than actual) and the 1931 population increase might have been close to 30%. Considering theses assumptions, the current population of HRM would be at least 30% higher and HRM would be approaching 550,000 by now (about 3 - 4% higher in 1921, and about 27% higher in 1931). I believe the effect of the explosion on the Halifax area population was just as significant as the effect of Katrina on the New Orleans population.
Historical population of Halifax County/HRM (source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax...y#cite_note-26 )
Year Population ±%
1851 39,914 —
1861 49,021 +22.8%
1871 56,963 +16.2%
1881 67,917 +19.2%
1891 71,358 +5.1%
1901 74,662 +4.6%
1911 80,257 +7.5%
1921 97,228 +21.1%
1931 100,204 +3.1%
1941 122,656 +22.4%
1951 162,217 +32.3%
1961 225,723 +39.1%
1971 261,461 +15.8%
1981 288,126 +10.2%
1991 332,518 +15.4%
2001 359,111 +8.0%
2011 390,096 +8.6%