Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021)

[biguc]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ Is adding more pork plants, trucking companies and furniture manufacturing companies going to get us there, though?

The kinds of people who typically immigrate to Winnipeg to fill those jobs are the ones who are quick to leave when they find a similar job in Brooks, AB that pays a few dollars an hour more. Not knocking it, they're doing what they have to do. But at the end of the day I don't think that attempting to add more and more people is really going to fix anything here, at least not on its own.

Fair point. Back in the early days of this board, I think we shared the belief that Winnipeg would work out once its ship came in. A few years of growth really didn't help--if it led indirectly to the disaster the Cons have created, it probably made things worse.

Realistically, a cultural shift to actually embracing improvement is necessary. And so is growth. But we can't let the latter cancel out the former.

The former, though, will cause the latter.

Originally Posted by Ando

Well, it isn’t surprising the city’s lack of growth coincides with the current provincial government’s lack of investment in infrastructure, leaving dollars on the table, zero rapid transportation strategy, destructive healthcare policies, and so on. It’s what one would expect.

Don't forget cutting social services, leading to all-time highs in crime and homelessness.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Hockey

My interpretation of the CMA Winnipeg estimate by StatsCan differs from Kives/CBC.

I see a CMA (Wpg) whose highest growth since 2002 has been in 4 of the last 6 years (2016 -2019).

The most recent two years (2020 and 2021) has followed the same drop off as the rest of Canada caused by the pandemic and its complications.

It is the most recent 2 years that has caused the 'flattening' of that curve.

I found that article garbage.

Where is the actual table that Kives is discussing? I took a quick look at Statscan but I couldn't find it.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by GreyGarden

CBC article today discussing the flatlining of Winnipeg's population:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...revious%20year.

What I found interesting in the article is that unlike other big Canadian cities that saw their population growth rate flatline or decline during the pandemic, this trend has existed in Winnipeg since 2016-2017. This seems like this should be a pretty important issue for our elected officials at the municipal and provincial level. A stagnating City is not good for the health of the Province.

Regarding the reasons, the article doesn't provide much in the way of analysis or explanation. Unsurprisingly, employment opportunities is discussed. One woman who left for Calgary also mentioned social disparity and the unhoused along Portage Ave.

The prairies as a whole will have their challenges. Alberta is going to have challenges the province has not yet experienced with the accelerated challenges the oil industry as a whole is facing.

Lots of unpredictability. Winnipeg has its challenges but not like other places don’t either. Just the reality everywhere as the effects of the pandemic and changing global trends botch catch up and take effect

Interesting about that woman’s thoughts though. I know she’s talking about something else but everywhere has their housing and social disparity challenges. Calgary has a far larger homeless population than Winnipeg does, even when taking into account the relative population sizes

[Hockey]

Originally Posted by esquire

Where is the actual table that Kives is discussing? I took a quick look at Statscan but I couldn't find it.

Here is the statCan link, you have to select Wpg in the CMA/CA box:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

[GreyGarden]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

The prairies as a whole will have their challenges. Alberta is going to have challenges the province has not yet experienced with the accelerated challenges the oil industry as a whole is facing.

Lots of unpredictability. Winnipeg has its challenges but not like other places don’t either. Just the reality everywhere as the effects of the pandemic and changing global trends botch catch up and take effect

On the point about the prairies having challenges, I read a book three or four summers ago called Perfect City, by Richard Florida, who has certainly fallen out of fashion somewhat, especially during the pandemic where he became anti-lockdown to the point I had to unfollow him lol. So the ideas are somewhat dated and questionable, but in one chapter he discussed the "spikiness" of cities and regions. I'll try not to butcher it, but I think he predicted that the space between the "have" and have not" cities is going to grow over the coming years.

In a Canadian context, this would look something like the Vancouver area and GTA, but maybe the Quebec-Windsor corridor generally, continuing to grow in prosperity and prominence, while disconnected cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, and the Maritimes will begin struggling. Essentially, it is a zero-sum game - one cities gain is another cities loss. I'm not sure if I ever really bought into that theory, but it interested me at the time and clearly stuck with me a bit. The pandemic may have significantly altered the landscape, I'm not sure.

I do worry slightly for the health of Canadian cities not attached to large metropolitan areas.

Edit: as I'm thinking about this, the trend of people leaving Toronto for surrounding, less expensive municipalities may rattle the theory somewhat.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Hockey

Here is the statCan link, you have to select Wpg in the CMA/CA box:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

Thank you.

Yeah, further to your earlier point, it is hard to square the tables with Kives' article. It does look like population growth was fairly high by recent standards, fell in 2020 and then dropped off a cliff in 2021. But if you look at other the other 4 big prairie cities, they follow more or less the same trends.

[Hockey]

Originally Posted by esquire

Thank you.

Yeah, further to your earlier point, it is hard to square the tables with Kives' article. It does look like population growth was fairly high by recent standards, fell in 2020 and then dropped off a cliff in 2021. But if you look at other the other 4 big prairie cities, they follow more or less the same trends.

^^^^This.

2020 and 2021 lack of pop growth is not unique to CMA Wpg.

Look at the country of Canada in 2020 and 2021 - same thing.

Or CMA Toronto (includes suburbs) from 125,000 (2019) down to 15,000 (in 2021).

[Jeff]

The Winnipeg bus shelter issue does need to be dealt with for sure, but I think it is just as prevalent in many other cities. In larger cities with LRT/subways it may be less "front-and-centre" as it isn't visible as you drive down the main drags of town like Portage Ave. here, but it is there.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/some-calg...less-1.5733376

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...cold-1.6305466

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by Jeff

The Winnipeg bus shelter issue does need to be dealt with for sure, but I think it is just as prevalent in many other cities. In larger cities with LRT/subways it may be less "front-and-centre" as it isn't visible as you drive down the main drags of town like Portage Ave. here, but it is there.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/some-calg...less-1.5733376

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...cold-1.6305466

Except we have all these other services the city has employed and I am not entirely sure what the Downtown biz patrol and the cadets do. This is their job in my opinion. Get them focused on the homelessness and drug use population and get them to the facilities that are set up to house them. Our other big disadvantage and the pure lack of vision of the city and province is that we don't have any appropriate services for addiction issues other than Street Connections. We need a safe injection site and we need to provide resources to people living in these conditions. We need to quit working towards abstinence and provide a true harm reduction model. You address these issues- mental health, addictions, and poverty and you can "clean up" downtown by providing appropriate resources to people.

[OTA in Winnipeg]

Unfortunately there are no treatment options for meth users. That is the problem.

[bomberjet]

About the career opportunities. What doesn't Winnipeg have? There are loads of good paying, rewarding careers in Winnipeg.

If you want to work for a space agency, or something. well ya probably not. Most cities don't have jobs like that. You need to move regardless where you live.

But in terms of non-extremely specialized areas, Winnipeg has lots to offer. I don't buy the "we don't have jobs" argument. Just go to University in an area that has jobs.

Like we don't have big oil or potash mines or what?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

About the career opportunities. What doesn't Winnipeg have? There are loads of good paying, rewarding careers in Winnipeg.

If you want to work for a space agency, or something. well ya probably not. Most cities don't have jobs like that. You need to move regardless where you live.

But in terms of non-extremely specialized areas, Winnipeg has lots to offer. I don't buy the "we don't have jobs" argument. Just go to University in an area that has jobs.

Like we don't have big oil or potash mines or what?

For university graduates there are a lot of specialized corporate jobs that are either in short supply or don't exist in Winnipeg. If you can't get hired in the first place in your area of specialty, or if your employer shuts down, gets taken over, etc., you may have to move to find a similar type of job.

Think of the big Winnipeg companies whose head offices no longer exist... Manitoba Pool, UGG, Viterra, the Wheat Board, Canwest, even MTS to name some of the more prominent examples. Of course we have some big head offices like the big crowns, Canada Life, IG, etc., but a city like Calgary or Toronto has far more. So no matter if you're in finance/accounting, operations, IT or whatever, there will be a lot of jobs to choose from in white collar towns like that.

[bomberjet]

There's also numerous times the amount of people looking for jobs out there.

I guess from my experiences with family or friends, people just go straight away to another job. My sister was in some type of management role at Shaw. Took the sweet buyout and started next week elsewhere. I've had family in rather prominent positions, private and government, and they just go to another company right away. I can bounce between companies if I need to, which I have been to get ahead.

I have a family friend who is in a big role at Suncor. There is no other place he can live than Calgary (or Alberta I suppose) because oilsands. That's what I mean about being super specialized in something. You need to go where the job is. Obviously Manitoba is not Toronto. But Calgary or Edmonton is not that different to me in terms of work positions. People go there and come back.

If you're expecting another CEO position, will ya you're going to need to find that job haha I always think about Cousin Eddie holding out for a management position haha I guess I've just never experienced the can't find a job thing, if you have some type of training. Not even university. Go to Red River, take a trade and you really have no problem finding work.

[ue]

The drain of major offices also happened to Edmonton through the '90s and 2000s. Telus (what became of AGT and EdTel when it was privatized), Shaw, even stuff in food services, like Booster Juice, Boston Pizza, Earls, Famoso, etc all had offices move to Calgary or Vancouver.

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by esquire

For university graduates there are a lot of specialized corporate jobs that are either in short supply or don't exist in Winnipeg. If you can't get hired in the first place in your area of specialty, or if your employer shuts down, gets taken over, etc., you may have to move to find a similar type of job.

Think of the big Winnipeg companies whose head offices no longer exist... Manitoba Pool, UGG, Viterra, the Wheat Board, Canwest, even MTS to name some of the more prominent examples. Of course we have some big head offices like the big crowns, Canada Life, IG, etc., but a city like Calgary or Toronto has far more. So no matter if you're in finance/accounting, operations, IT or whatever, there will be a lot of jobs to choose from in white collar towns like that.

true that we laxk the big players. but wpgs a great place to explore and launch from

[biguc]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

About the career opportunities. What doesn't Winnipeg have? There are loads of good paying, rewarding careers in Winnipeg.

If you want to work for a space agency, or something. well ya probably not. Most cities don't have jobs like that. You need to move regardless where you live.

But in terms of non-extremely specialized areas, Winnipeg has lots to offer. I don't buy the "we don't have jobs" argument. Just go to University in an area that has jobs.

Like we don't have big oil or potash mines or what?

I used to think like that. I think it's a case of not seeing what's over the horizon. I didn't even leave for professional reasons but it's been a major win for me professionally anyway.

Winnipeg lacks a meaningful startup sector. The local market is too small to test many new ideas on. And it's too isolated to draw on neighbours. There's approximately 0 VC going around. It's something when you find yourself in an ecosystem where people have already made their nut with a startup and have then turned around and are paying and mentoring a new generation to do the same. Getting good--actually rewarding good, not just it pays ok to fuck dogs in a stifling corporate environment good--work is as easy as someone saying, "You do such and such? I just gave 100 grand to so and so who needs such and such. Call them."

Creative work in general is lacking in Winnipeg. Yeah, some people can do it. But it's a small market; you have to connect with the few people at the top, be willing to live off their scraps, get really comfortable with government grants, and struggle to find sporadic work. You're not going to ever settle into a TV writer's room or a really dynamic creative consultancy.

Winnipeg isn't a good city for creatives to go it alone anymore, either. It's gotten hostile to bohemian lifestyles and it isn't even affordable. You end up taking some job to keep the lights on and then ten years of hating yourself later you wonder if you should just give in and be an MPI adjuster or something else loathsome.

[bomberjet]

Well I don't hate myself haha.

But yes I agree with your saying. I just find people say "there are no jobs" when there's a shit load of jobs. I don't think Winnipeg will ever be the Vancouver movie scene for example.

Again family friend lives in Vancouver because they do movies really good. To me that's a specific specialty where you need to go to the work. Winnipeg has a movie scene, but we can never ever actually compete with a place like Vancouver.

Should we be trying to develop specialties in Winnipeg. For sure. But I mean every City is trying to do that. And that's where we're at.


To add another anecdotal thing. My cousin worked at Ubisoft during 2 of her summer work terms in University. She's graduating this spring and they're begging her to come back. She's brilliant and I'm so happy for her. There's some type of scene where companies like that are coming to Winnipeg. She a) may have never had the opportunity to work at a place like that and b) may have skipped town to another locale. It's not all doom and gloom. (Edit: I just looked at their website and she's pictured on the Winnipeg page haha).

[esquire]

I guess it's a matter of philosophy.

If you are a work to live type then you will take the job that is available even if it isn't necessarily your dream or making the most of your abilities. That is easy to do in Winnipeg. I mean, the jobs certainly are there.

If you are more of a live to work kind of person who is highly driven in their career, then you might be able to make it work here but there is a good chance that you would have to leave town to find the kinds of specialized opportunities that are limited or nonexistent in Winnipeg.

I can think of several highly intelligent and successful friends of mine who probably would have boosted their careers and earned more money had they moved to another city. But when you factor other things into it (family and friends, lifestyle, relatively lower cost of living, short commutes) the advantage of leaving is less pronounced.

That's why the people most receptive to leaving are the young graduates and recent immigrants who are less entrenched and might have fewer ties to the community pushing them to remain here.

[bomberjet]

I think that's a fair assessment Esquire.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Well I don't hate myself haha.

But yes I agree with your saying. I just find people say "there are no jobs" when there's a shit load of jobs. I don't think Winnipeg will ever be the Vancouver movie scene for example.

Again family friend lives in Vancouver because they do movies really good. To me that's a specific specialty where you need to go to the work. Winnipeg has a movie scene, but we can never ever actually compete with a place like Vancouver.

Should we be trying to develop specialties in Winnipeg. For sure. But I mean every City is trying to do that. And that's where we're at.

I'd even go as far to say we do have specialties. Plant based protein and pea production seems likely to become specialized in Winnipeg in regards to research, technology, and development of this budding industry because of the developments ongoing throughout the rest of the province.

Also transportation manufacturing is a huge business. Maybe I might not be looking hard enough but it seems like there is a huge amount of this industry present for such a small city.