NASHVILLE Transit/Light Rail/BRT Proposal

[floor23]

For all you guys that live in the Nashville area, what do you think the odds are this passes?

[BnaBreaker]

Originally Posted by floor23

For all you guys that live in the Nashville area, what do you think the odds are this passes?

It's hard to get a real gauge on it, because a formal poll hasn't been done in quite some time. At that time, the citizenry seemed supportive of the plan by almost a 2:1 margin. Now though, and maybe this is just me being pessimistic, but it would seem to be closer to about a 50/50 chance it passes, primarily due to the fact that the FUCKING KOCH BROTHERS have poured a great deal of money into spreading disinformation about the plan itself. Early voting has started already. We will find out soon what the outcome is. Fingers crossed Nashvillians make the right choice.

[MidTenn1]

It's election day and early voting is not encouraging for the pro-transit side. From the TENNESSEAN...

After a contentious campaign that's seen Nashville furiously debate the future of transportation in the city, a referendum on funding a new transit system is finally here. 
Neither side is making any grand predictions on the outcome at this late stage, but some political observers give a slight edge to the opposition.

More than 59,000 people voted early, including more than 11,600 on the final day of early voting, putting the overall vote total on pace to reach around 95,000.

Multiple internal polls over the past month by candidates who had explored bids for mayor and other candidates have shown the transit referendum losing by anywhere from 6 to 14 percentage points. 

Voting ends at 7 pm CST and I expect totals will be determined by 8 pm so I will post results as soon as they are known.

[Busy Bee]

NEVER underestimate the power of idiots in large groups.

[mrnyc]

let us know when they call it —

come on vul you can do it — all eyes on this...!

[MidTenn1]

TRANSIT PLAN FAILS AT BALLOT BOX OVERWHELMINGLY!!


With 60+% opposed and 70% of precients reporting, the proposal to approve a tax increase to fund a $5.2 Billion transit plan is facing an overwhelming defeat. Some bullet points;

• A large part of the opposition came from the rural areas of Davidson County which would get no services from the plan. The consolidation of the City and the County in the 1960’s meant the City would inherit large swaths of hilly, rural areas that would never develop densely and require mass transit services.
• Another killer was the half cent increase in the sales tax to 10%, one of the highest in the nation. Many seniors resented this as they would not see the 25 year build-out that they helped fund.
• The very popular Mayor Megan Berry got caught in affair with her police bodyguard, pled guilty to a felony and had to resign. Her replacement, David Briley, lacked the personality and charisma his predecessor had and seemed unable to push the issue across the finish line.
• There is talk of going back to the drawing board and coming up with ‘Transit Lite’. But with this thrashing, current politicals may not want to touch it.
• Transit lite, would have to be some form of Bus Rapid Transit with no sales tax increase. I could see a trolley line possibly being acceptable.
• With no sales tax increase, there would not have to be a referendum. So future improvements would come from regular budgeting. I don’t know if hotel taxes have to face a referendum vote.

On a day that we get a big HQ relocation, AllianceBernstein, this is still a sad day. I guess we're not ready to put our 'big city' breeches on yet.

[Illithid Dude]

Very disappointing. I was rooting for you guys.

[Busy Bee]

Makes you wanna curse.

In the absence of a large-commitment funding scheme, they should try to build one light rail line to edge of downtown without the tunnel to show a largely unfamiliar local public what they could have city wide and retry the a larger plan referendum after that. But yeah, this is as disappointing as it gets. Another example of out of touch old folks screwing the future of the young.

[a very long weekend]

I feel terrible about this. For your info, apparently the Kock brothers spent to defeat it.

The sales tax formula really makes the timeline so long that only a few places in the nation would vote in favor. We really need to have some sort of infrastructure bank at the federal level, or maybe regional/state, that would fund these things when ballot initiatives pass. The pay/go system in LA, for instance, has them looking at much needed projects getting started in the late 2030s, to be completed in the 2040s. It's not even a joke, who but a government type would think that was something anyone would get behind?

If the renin entity currently gestating in the Oval Office is faced with a Democratic Congress next year, it would be Reaganeque of him to basically just hand infrastructure over to them and maybe something like this could be done.

But, yeah, with a local tax increase and a 20+ year time horizon to get - what, a few rail lines in? - people are just too stupid to vote for the greater good.

[BnaBreaker]

Fuck the Koch Brothers, and fuck anyone too stupid and/or lazy to do five minutes of research beyond the bullshit anti-transit disinformation they see on TV. Nashville shoots itself in the foot once again, based on some moronic, antiquated notion that it's still a small town. What makes this even more infuriating is that the same simple-minded, shortsighted people that voted this plan down will, no doubt, be the same one most up in arms about the worsening traffic situation. Fuck em all. That's all I've got to say.

[Makid]

A starter line, be it LRT or BRT needs to be built. This has been the standard method in nearly all cities with better mass transit. Once the line is built and operating, people begin to see the value and start to clamor for it.

Hopefully Nashville will be able to get something going soon, even if it is a small demo line.

[bobdreamz]

Sorry to hear that Nashville voted down this sales tax increase but it may take a few more attempts and yes traffic getting worse before people willing want to tax themselves to improve transit might just do it.
It took almost 2 decades & several referendums in Miami before a half penny sales tax for transit was finally passed in 2002.

As for a starter BRT line, Miami has the 21 mile long South Dade Busway in a grade separated ROW that was completed in 1997 & was supposed to be upgraded to a Metrorail extension after the passage of the transit tax.
Twenty years later and it's still a busway even with a local funding source but with no FED money to expand.
Hang in there Nashville.

[lrt's friend]

In order for a city to be globally competitive for business and tourism, it is necessary to have a good transit system. Certain parts of the USA have not learned this lesson yet. Not enough people have seen what is going on in other cities especially internationally. They are still thinking it is the 1950s or 1960s. Hopefully, something can be built that will allow Nashville to progress.

[Sun Belt]

Nashville would have had a 10% sales tax? No wonder it failed.

They'll need to find another route to secure funding, it seems like sales tax increases have been maxed out.

[toddguy]

What do people think of Aaron Renn's pieces on this? He panned the idea initially and just posted about the defeat on the Urbanophile. Any thoughts on his thoughts (especially the original article?)

[BnaBreaker]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Nashville would have had a 10% sales tax? No wonder it failed.

They'll need to find another route to secure funding, it seems like sales tax increases have been maxed out.

But the state has no income tax and the sales tax increase would, I believe, only apply to sales of $1,500 and under, so the overall tax burden for Nashville residents would still be WELL under that of even many peer cities.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by toddguy

What do people think of Aaron Renn's pieces on this? He panned the idea initially and just posted about the defeat on the Urbanophile. Any thoughts on his thoughts (especially the original article?)

I usually agree with Renn. It's hard to build support for a rail system when your voters don't ride the bus, and it's hard to get them on the bus when there aren't even sidewalks on most streets so that people can walk to a bus stop.

This is a crucial issue in the South... typically Northern and Western cities have highly-engineered city streets with a grid layout. Even when those streets are massive suburban auto sewers, sidewalks (on at least one side) are still part of the deal, so there's still some basic pedestrian connections. Southern cities are usually more organic, the streets don't connect nearly as well, and there are often haphazard flowerbeds, ditches, or parking spaces where there should be a sidewalk. This can be remedied, but it would take a massive and concerted effort, and will probably upset a lot of homeowners when they lose their prize crape myrtle or their convenient front parking space. If you drive all the time, a new sidewalk in front of your house is just a way to invite outsiders in.

Climatic factors play a part, also... Cold weather doesn't seem to faze northerners, they get on the buses and trains all the same, whereas hot weather seems to drive Sunbelt residents into their air-conditioned cars and homes.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by BnaBreaker

Fuck the Koch Brothers, and fuck anyone too stupid and/or lazy to do five minutes of research beyond the bullshit anti-transit disinformation they see on TV. Nashville shoots itself in the foot once again, based on some moronic, antiquated notion that it's still a small town. What makes this even more infuriating is that the same simple-minded, shortsighted people that voted this plan down will, no doubt, be the same one most up in arms about the worsening traffic situation. Fuck em all. That's all I've got to say.

Koch Brothers aside...a 10% sales tax and a city that is consolidated with the county which has to take into account those voters was always going to be a hurdle no matter what.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by JManc

Koch Brothers aside...a 10% sales tax and a city that is consolidated with the county which has to take into account those voters was always going to be a hurdle no matter what.

There is no municipal earnings tax and there is no state income tax. That means pretty much everything is shifted to property taxes and sales taxes.

Tennessee is going to have to wake up and realize that "low taxes" are going to cost it dearly. In addition to a general sales tax that is currently around 9.5%, they also tax food 5%, which is criminally regressive.

[SpawnOfVulcan]

This is a huge loss, not just for Nashville, but for other Southern cities that need and deserve proper transit networks. Cities like Memphis, Birmingham, and Jacksonville, need to see an example set by a city like Nashville. This was an opportunity for 1) Nashville to construct a first class transit system, and 2) show other Southern cities that public transit works.

First, I feel a huge loss for Nashville that this didn't pass... second, I legitimately feel like efforts for solid public transit systems in The South to a solid hit. I'm sure there are plenty in Davidson County that feel that they won, but we all know everyone was just too stupid to realize how great of an opportunity the city had.