Who will replace Harper?

[ssiguy]

Who will replace Harper?

This is NOT an election thread!

This thread is working from the nearly universal agreement that no one is going to come even remotely close to a majority government. No matter who you support I think that is one of the very few things that all of us can agree on.

Well whether Harper wins or loses his days are numbered not only by the Libs/Cons pulling down the government but also by his backbenchers and Tory strategists who know that Harper is used goods..........thanks for the memories, good luck and goodbye. Whether it's the Libs/Cons stabbing him in the heart or his backbenchers stabbing him in the back, he's toast.

So WITHOUT bringing in the current election, who do you think will replace Harper as leader of the Conservatives?

[ssiguy]

God I hate it when I don't properly reread my posts!! I meant to say Libs/NDP.

[SignalHillHiker]

Hopefully a red Tory from, presumably, NS. Let's get the party back from the Reform/Alliance crowd.

[O-tacular]

Ha nice new thread! Who do I think will replace Stephen Harper.... Hmm....an actual human?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Ha nice new thread! Who do I think will replace Stephen Harper.... Hmm....an actual human?

bada bing!

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Hopefully a red Tory from, presumably, NS. Let's get the party back from the Reform/Alliance crowd.

That would result in another party split just like in the early 1990s. The party base - particularly in the west - thinks that Harper is moderate to even liberal. They would never form government if the Reform Party is reborn...

Personally I see Brad Wall as the best possible successor.

[flar]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

That would result in another party split just like in the early 1990s. The party base - particularly in the west - thinks that Harper is moderate to even liberal. They would never form government if the Reform Party is reborn...

They're a dying breed. The west will continue to become more urban, progressive and diverse. You can see it already.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by flar

They're a dying breed. The west will continue to become more urban, progressive and diverse. You can see it already.

With the Canadian population in general becoming older, more crotchety and more set in their ways at the same time. The baby boom will ensure a strong Conservative Party for decades to come.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

With the Canadian population in general becoming older, more crotchety and more set in their ways at the same time. The baby boom will ensure a strong Conservative Party for decades to come.

Our olds are all Liberal in rural areas and, until Harper, had been Conservative in urban areas. That's a remnant from Confederation, when it was our Liberals in support of it. So, here at least, an aging population will just lead to ever-higher margins of victory for the Liberals in all of the rural ridings.

BUT that only lasts up until the baby boomer generation. Everyone else is, for the most part, too far removed from it for that to be their instinctual, heritage-based, unthinking political choice.

I'm curious to see how it'll all shake out. Harper has already pushed St. John's enough to say... hey, we don't agree with this shit. Why are we still voting for it? And while the city still couldn't bring itself to try Liberal again, it did go NDP - 75% so in the core. And the especially religious rural pockets of the province are all found in the ridings where Conservatives poll at 15+%, so they've switched as well, from Liberal to Conservative.

The wider population could go anywhere in a few generations. I think you'll see the split become much more varied, as it is in the Maritimes.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Hopefully a red Tory from, presumably, NS. Let's get the party back from the Reform/Alliance crowd.

Oops, not a single Tory. red or otherwise elected in the Maritimes! Even MacKay's old seat gone Liberal.

Looks like Baird, Moore and MacKay made the right decision to bail before the election. Now they're not tainted with the "loser" label should they want to run.

[BIMBAM]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Who will replace Harper?

This is NOT an election thread!

This thread is working from the nearly universal agreement that no one is going to come even remotely close to a majority government. No matter who you support I think that is one of the very few things that all of us can agree on.

Well whether Harper wins or loses his days are numbered not only by the Libs/Cons pulling down the government but also by his backbenchers and Tory strategists who know that Harper is used goods..........thanks for the memories, good luck and goodbye. Whether it's the Libs/Cons stabbing him in the heart or his backbenchers stabbing him in the back, he's toast.

So WITHOUT bringing in the current election, who do you think will replace Harper as leader of the Conservatives?

Of the current cabinet, there's alot of lightweights like Pierre Poilievre who I view as basically unelectable. Joe Oliver might have some chance, but I think it's really Jason Kenney's to lose. Leona Aglukkaq ticks alot of boxes and might do well in a general election, but I don't think she'd win over enough supporters within the party, and she doesn't seem the type to really energize the Conservative base.

[manny_santos]

I think Jason Kenney will be a likely choice. I don't like him any more than Harper as a politician, but he seems a little more human.

[*Stardust*]

I'm hoping for a right wing split. I agree with a Red Tory type of party. I don't think this Neo-Liberalism crap resonates with most people in Canada. The return of the PC party would be great

[Migs]

I look forward to bumping this thread in a month.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Migs

I look forward to bumping this thread in a month.

Considering a run for the leadership of the conservative party, are you?

[Bdog]

Originally Posted by Migs

I look forward to bumping this thread in a month.

So, is it you Migs??

[MonctonRad]

Peter MacKay, a Red Tory from NS would be my choice, but the timing isn't right since he's just "temporarily" bowed out of politics prior to this election for "family reasons".

This is standard protocol for someone wanting to avoid being associated with the demise of a government, and wanting to distance himself from the current party leadership before staging a comeback at some point in the future. I imagine Peter is thinking of challenging for the leadership in 6-8 years time. He would still be a (relatively) young man, and his return should coincide with the rebuilding of the party prior to their return to government.

In the meantime, I agree that Jason Kenney is likely the heir apparent. I like Lisa Raitt too though. I think she could make an effective leader of the opposition, and could potentially do very well in the election of 2018.

[*Stardust*]

Joe Clark

[lio45]

Originally Posted by *Stardust*

I'm hoping for a right wing split. I agree with a Red Tory type of party. I don't think this Neo-Liberalism crap resonates with most people in Canada. The return of the PC party would be great

I'd also be hoping for the transformation of the CPC into a more Red Tory type of party, but I wouldn't want another credible "right" option showing up. There's already a (tiny) Libertarian party of Canada that, ideally, I would like to see merging with this unified socially liberal center-right party -- why waste a few votes on something that clearly isn't going to fly.

The socially conservative voters out there would have no option more appropriate than the Red Tories, so they'd be taken for granted, and wouldn't have much weight.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

I think Jason Kenney will be a likely choice. I don't like him any more than Harper as a politician, but he seems a little more human.

He's a formidable politician, with strong ties to social conservatives and leaders of the ethncultural communities.

Wonder if he'll announce he's getting married soon.