Ride-hailing in Metro Vancouver: Uber, Lyft, Sidecar - emerging technologies

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by phesto

Valid points. As much as I want ride-hailing to come here, I'm not entirely sold on the business model or practices of Uber or any other company.

On the other hand, the legislation is still sorely needed. Why are we still trying to protect and subsidize the failing and antiquated taxi industry? As long as we have proper laws and protections in place, let the market decide how best to deliver ride/taxi services.

I agree, the model is outdated and the monopoly is anti-free market. Anybody who passes the required tests should be able to operate a cab today. The blame lies equally with the BC Government, municipalities, and taxi companies.

But people who worship Uber need their head examined. All they want is another monopoly. We'll see how locals react when they see what surge pricing entails.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Yep. Uber's story isn't even close to being finished yet. Their only hope for success is to get to fully automated vehicles before the investment capital subsidizing all of their rides runs out. A race that is in no way guaranteed to finish in Uber's favour.

That's a long way off, if ever.

The head of Alphabet Inc.’s autonomous vehicle unit gave a cautious outlook for the nascent industry on Tuesday, saying the technology won’t be ubiquitous for decades and that driverless vehicles will always have constraints.

Waymo Chief Executive Officer John Krafcik said self-driving cars will require driver assistance for many years to come, and that he doesn’t envision a day when the technology operates in all weather conditions and without some sort of "user interaction."..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...us-for-decades

Whaddya bet those "weather conditions" are things like snow?

[WarrenC12]

There will always be trouble with cars of all kinds, driven by people or not.

Automation could make huge impacts in planned routes though, like buses for example. Or maybe Waymo's automated (cheaper) rides will be available only on major roads, so you might have to walk a few blocks to your final destination.

Ignore the technology at your peril.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by misher

No I'm saying the taxi industry played by the rules and paid a huge amount of money for their licenses. You can't just say too bad and kick them to the curb.

I have no sympathy. The government sold a limited number of licenses and in turn provided the industry a monopoly for many years. During that period the licenses appreciated in value as they were sold back and forth between operators. Their very scarcity is what's made them so valuable. It's a very nice arrangement for the taxi operators, but a very poor one for consumers. I don't cast my vote for politicians so that they can protect a cartel - just the opposite, in fact.

The writing has been on the wall for the taxi companies for quite some time now, and they'll have to adapt just as so many other industries have. It's stupid to try to prop up an obsolete economic model that's been overtaken by technology.

[osirisboy]

Originally Posted by whatnext

That's a long way off, if ever.

The head of Alphabet Inc.’s autonomous vehicle unit gave a cautious outlook for the nascent industry on Tuesday, saying the technology won’t be ubiquitous for decades and that driverless vehicles will always have constraints.

Waymo Chief Executive Officer John Krafcik said self-driving cars will require driver assistance for many years to come, and that he doesn’t envision a day when the technology operates in all weather conditions and without some sort of "user interaction."..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...us-for-decades

Whaddya bet those "weather conditions" are things like snow?

"If ever" ?? Lol really? Sure it's fair to say not in 20 years but to say it will never happen is just ridiculous. Like people who said we could never fly

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

"If ever" ?? Lol really? Sure it's fair to say not in 20 years but to say it will never happen is just ridiculous. Like people who said we could never fly

Originally Posted by osirisboy

"If ever" ?? Lol really? Sure it's fair to say not in 20 years but to say it will never happen is just ridiculous. Like people who said we could never fly

Did you even read the article?

The Waymo guy said he can't envision a time when a self-driving vehicle can operate without driver interaction in all weather conditions.

[osirisboy]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Did you even read the article?

The Waymo guy said he can't envision a time when a self-driving vehicle can operate without driver interaction in all weather conditions.

Yeah and I stand by what I originally said. You said if ever. Meaning never. Meaning 500-1000 years from now they won't be able to figure out a way to handle all weather conditions?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

Yeah and I stand by what I originally said. You said if ever. Meaning never. Meaning 500-1000 years from now they won't be able to figure out a way to handle all weather conditions?

In fairness, humanity invented the manually-operated car almost 200 years ago, and those sometimes don't handle all weather conditions either. My guess is that the solution is antigravity, rather than AI.

[osirisboy]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

In fairness, humanity invented the manually-operated car almost 200 years ago, and those sometimes don't handle all weather conditions either. My guess is that the solution is antigravity, rather than AI.

Exactly

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

My guess is that the solution is antigravity, rather than AI.

eek, flying cars.

because moving in 2 dimensions isn't hard enough for people and self driving cars.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

In fairness, humanity invented the manually-operated car almost 200 years ago, and those sometimes don't handle all weather conditions either.

Same principle applies to aircraft. And to rapid transit systems that run on exposed rights of way (Skytrain, I'm looking at you!).

Obviously there are always (and I really mean always) going to be edge cases where automation won't cut it. The big question is: what percentage of trips wouldn't be able to be made and would that percentage be high enough that drivers would demand manual controls in their vehicles to deal with them?

[Westbased]

Just some thoughts regarding autonomous vehicles.

If we look back one decade when the first iPhone was released we can notice one very important aspect: the materials within the phone were able to be mass produced in 2007.

Now today, one decade later, iPhone iOS and Android have pretty much 100% of the market share through smart phones be it Apple, Google, Samsung etc.

Now if we compare this to the autonomous vehicle market there are some similarities. Autonomous vehicles will be electric. Electric engines require materials like Lithium, Cobalt, and Graphite. In the next couple years, these material and the subsequent batteries that will power these cars will be able to be produced on a mass scale. Tesla's Gigafactory is one example.

Next, companies such as Waymo, Uber, even the big car producers GM etc. are heavily invested in autonomous vehicles and they are getting better by the week/month.

The ability to mass produce autonomous vehicles and electric batteries will converge into mass produced electric autonomous vehicles. Now they may not be mass produced in the traditional sense because there will be a huge reduction in the number of vehicles required. Perhaps 1 vehicle for 10 people or more.

Given the speed of innovation and change that can come with technology, I wouldn't be surprised to see car ownership being a thing of the past for 99% of the population in big cities by 2030.

Instead what will happen is a person can pick up their smart phone, request an "autonomous Uber" or whatever company is operating, and be picked up and dropped off to their destination quickly and safely. Owning a car means we pay for insurance, gas, repairs, and our time to drive. Say car ownership costs $15,000 per year on average. Now compare that with spending even $20 everyday on using "autonomous Uber" or others which is very high as we don't all drive a car everyday. That would be $7,300. That's without any headaches, simply call and go.

The amount of space that parking lots currently take up within the city will be now available to be returned to the citizens of the city. The built environment can again be pedestrian dominant. Perhaps the extensive underground parking lots can be retrofitted to be storage lots for these autonomous vehicles.

Things like adverse driving conditions for autonomous vehicles will and can be easily solved as we progress. Further, the roads could be accident free given there are no "rational" humans behind the wheel which would make getting from place to place easy.

While some may say there is no chance in hell this happens in the next decade again just look back at how quickly iOS and Android have completed taken our phones. Innovative technology can grow exponentially especially once it begins to catch hold.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Westbased

Things like adverse driving conditions for autonomous vehicles will and can be easily solved as we progress.

Did you even read the above quote by the Waymo CEO? He's in charge of AV development, and these guys are notoriously bullish on the technology. And he says that he "can't foresee the day" when AVs will be able to handle all weather conditions on their own.

Sorry, but your opinion seems a LOT less credible to me than his.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

eek, flying cars.

because moving in 2 dimensions isn't hard enough for people and self driving cars.

Hovercars is what I was thinking of. All-terrain is nice - no terrain is even better.

[Sheba]

B.C.’s NDP government to introduce ridesharing legislation Monday

British Columbians will finally get a road map to the implementation of ridesharing services like Uber and Lyft on Monday.

That’s when the province says Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure Claire Trevena will introduce the Passenger Transportation Amendment Act, described as “government’s next step to enable ride-hailing in British Columbia.”

The governing New Democrats had promised the legislation would be introduced before month’s end, but said it would first roll out an additional 500 taxi licenses across the province.

Vancouver is the largest city in North America without ridesharing services, a fact that has drawn growing frustration from critics.

...

[logan5]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Did you even read the above quote by the Waymo CEO? He's in charge of AV development, and these guys are notoriously bullish on the technology. And he says that he "can't foresee the day" when AVs will be able to handle all weather conditions on their own

I wouldn't exactly trust anything a CEO of a driverless car company has to say when there are god knows how many billions (or even trillions) of dollars at stake for whoever brings this technology to the mass market first. For all we know he's trying to deceive the competition.

I'll also add that Elon Musk (he's a CEO too) thinks that fully autonomous driving can be achieved by using cameras - cameras that can see through bad weather conditions like fog and snow.

[Firebrand]

Originally Posted by logan5

I wouldn't exactly trust anything a CEO of a driverless car company has to say when there are god knows how many billions (or even trillions) of dollars at stake for whoever brings this technology to the mass market first. For all we know he's trying to deceive the competition.

I'll also add that Elon Musk (he's a CEO too) thinks that fully autonomous driving can be achieved by using cameras - cameras that can see through bad weather conditions like fog and snow.

It's Elon Musk we're talking here, so I'll take his ideas with a grain of salt.

Most tests on autonomous vehicles are done on clear, dry weather. I've yet to see one where self-driving cars can function sufficiently on rain and snow, and since the majority of Canada doesn't get the luxury of the hot climate that SoCal gets, it's gonna be very difficult to come by.

Also, where autonomous vehicles tested during the dark?

[VancouverOfTheFuture]

Originally Posted by logan5

I'll also add that Elon Musk (he's a CEO too) thinks that fully autonomous driving can be achieved by using cameras - cameras that can see through bad weather conditions like fog and snow.

true, he is, because he made a deal to keep his job after his whole lying to investor thing.

Tesla has never made a profit, not in 15yrs.

snow, fog, heavy rain; we shall see.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by logan5

I'll also add that Elon Musk (he's a CEO too) thinks that fully autonomous driving can be achieved by using cameras - cameras that can see through bad weather conditions like fog and snow.

Elon keeps wildly missing his autonomous driving promises, and he keeps upping the amount of hardware that's going to be needed to do the job. First it was "all Teslas will be autonomous capable", then it was oh, well "AP2 hardware will be required", then AP2.5, and now it's AP3. And none of the other players developing AV solutions think that a camera/radar-only platform is viable.

I'm not holding my breath for Tesla autonomous cars.

[logan5]

No it probably won't be camera/radar only, it will be a combination of all the sensors working together. Lidar is being developed that can see in snowy conditions.

Waymo does test in Michigan and Washington State for the very purpose of testing in bad weather.