How big will your city be in 20 years?

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by Capsule F

Is there any metric based on contiguous density?

Urbanized area.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Arizona is certainly on the losing side of climate change. As I said in a previous post, any climate-related advantages Arizona (or any sunbelt state) has now over northern states is going to be eliminated in the near future. The upper midwest will have a climate comparable to the Austin, TX before the century ends. I think people underestimate just how quickly the climate can change. There's a positive feedback loop. As the earth's surface warms, future increases occur at an accelerated rate. It's no secret Arizona's economy isn't the greatest. It's not bad, but it's heavily dependent on the construction industry. If people stop moving to Arizona because they can find the same weather in Davenport, Iowa with a lower cost of living, who's going to drive demand for more housing in Arizona?

If what you say comes true in 83 years, then the population projections for every city and region are way off, not just metro Phoenix. The population projections issued by the state of AZ for the next 23 years will be fairly accurate and is based off of water resources and land use laws.

Their projections back in 1980 were fairly accurate. It was projected Maricopa County to have 4 million residents by 2009. Even after the real estate collapse of 2008, the population of metro phoenix is approaching 4.7 million.

You are certain of your claims, yet there are numerous other scenarios that'll pan out long before Davenport becomes the next Austin.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Again, do more research and we'll revisit the conversation. This process has been in the works for decades and is accelerating.

It would be a nice movie script. I'm sure The Rock, Chris Pine or Jennifer Lawrence would be down for the starring role(s). That means place like Austin, Phoenix, Houston and Orlando would be virtually uninhabitable if the northern US was as hot as the southern US is now. Again, I don't dispute any of what you are saying just not on your accelerated time-frame. The planet would be uninhabitable in a mere few centuries.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by subterranean

Urbanized area.

How is that determined because urbanized area density puts phoenix as practically the same density per mile as Chicago which I find hard to believe.

Although I do notice with eastern vs western cities is that eastern cities tend to be hyper-dense and then rapidly transition to very suburban and then slowly becomes rural. but western cities like LA, Phoenix, Vegas, Denver tend to have a moderate density from city center right out to the edge of town and then immediate wilderness.

maybe that's how what averages out.

[IrishIllini]

Y'all don't seem to understand that humans have lived through an ice age. It nearly left us extinct, but we made it through. Modern day humans are more equipped to deal with a changing climate (including the changes we'll see this century), but there will be seismic shifts in where and how people live. Detroit went from a city of nearly 2M to a city of 500k in 60 years. Detroit's decline was economically-induced, but the fact of the matter is that change can and has happened quickly. While ten, fifteen, or twenty years may seem like a short amount of time, a lot can happen. Data collected over decades shows that the earth's surface is warming, and it's warming faster YoY. I understand the desire to be optimistic. You can continue to be optimistic and truth be told you could probably continue to live in Phoenix in the year 2100, but it's quite realistic that fewer and fewer people will be eager to join you and growth could easily turn negative due to increased water scarcity, higher and higher temperatures, and increased frequency of severe storms/drought.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by The North One

How much hotter can Austin get? Because I don't see how people will put up with temperates getting any more extreme. I also wonder at what point Atlanta could start planting palm trees in the ground and be looking like Miami.

I'm sure people were wondering the same thing when it topped 120 degrees this summer in Phoenix. Austin and Dallas are routinely 100+ degrees in the summer but with high humidity. Atlanta's climate is moderated somewhat by its higher elevation.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Although I do notice with eastern vs western cities is that eastern cities tend to be hyper-dense and then rapidly transition to very suburban and then slowly becomes rural. but western cities like LA, Phoenix, Vegas, Denver tend to have a moderate density from city center right out to the edge of town and then immediate wilderness.

correct, many western US metros like phoenix tend have very "hard" edges where you have relatively dense suburbia extending out from the city center that just up and stops at a literal line in the sand and then you're off into uninhabited wasteland.

in the east, suburbia (and surban density) tends to trail off FAR more gradually, over the course of dozens of miles until you're finally out in forests or farm country. on the outskirts of chicagoland, there are hundreds of sq. miles that barely meet that 1,000 ppsm minimum threshold the census bureau uses to determine "urban areas", but they are such ultra-low density sprawl that there is almost nothing urban about them. the west has way, WAY, WAY less of that development pattern.

so while the overall average densities of the phoenix and chicago urban areas might look similar on paper, the weighted densities that show where most of the people people actually live tell a different story.

these numbers are from 2000 (most recent i could find), but i doubt they've changed a lot:


urban area --- average density --- weighted density

chicago ---------- 3,914 ppsm ---------- 10,270 ppsm

phoenix ---------- 3,638 ppsm ---------- 5,238 ppsm

source: http://austinzoning.typepad.com/aust...ed-densit.html

[The North One]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Y'all don't seem to understand that humans have lived through an ice age. It nearly left us extinct, but we made it through. Modern day humans are more equipped to deal with a changing climate (including the changes we'll see this century)

What does this have to do with anything?? We're speculating on how climate might impact the population of cities, not whether humans can survive extreme temperatures if forced to...

Detroit went from a city of nearly 2M to a city of 500k in 60 years. Detroit's decline was economically-induced, but the fact of the matter is that change can and has happened quickly.

You're off by about 172,000 people, nice alternative facts.

[Obadno]

Duplicate

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by BG918

I'm sure people were wondering the same thing when it topped 120 degrees this summer in Phoenix. .

the occasional 120 in Phoenix is not new and has occurred several times,

We typically hit 118-119 at least once a year or every other, 120+ every 15-20ears or so.

115-117 we hit every year almost without fail for a few highs.

Other than psychological and the fact that the news likes to make a big deal about it, I find the difference between 117 and 120 to be negligible.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by The North One

What does this have to do with anything?? We're speculating on how climate might impact the population of cities, not whether humans can survive extreme temperatures if forced to...

I was responding to the poster who made comments about the end being nigh and just enjoying our final days. Relax.

Originally Posted by The North One

You're off by about 172,000 people, nice alternative facts.

Again, relax. No shots taken at Detroit here. I'm rooting for the comeback of your beloved and love all the redevelopment going on in the downtown area.

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by Obadno

How is that determined because urbanized area density puts phoenix as practically the same density per mile as Chicago which I find hard to believe.

Although I do notice with eastern vs western cities is that eastern cities tend to be hyper-dense and then rapidly transition to very suburban and then slowly becomes rural. but western cities like LA, Phoenix, Vegas, Denver tend to have a moderate density from city center right out to the edge of town and then immediate wilderness.

maybe that's how what averages out.

From Wikipedia:

Urban areas in the United States are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as contiguous census block groups with a population density of at least 1,000/sq mi (390/km2) with any census block groups around this core having a density of at least 500/sq mi (190/km2). Urban areas are delineated without regard to political boundaries. The census has two distinct categories of urban areas. Urbanized Areas have populations of greater than 50,000, while Urban Clusters have populations of less than 50,000 but more than 2,500. An urbanized area may serve as the core of a metropolitan statistical area, while an urban cluster may be the core of a micropolitan statistical area.