DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Buffalo to Toronto is too far today but I doubt we'll be saying the same thing 20 years from now. GO is undergoing a $20 billion upgrade and expansion. Frequent, all day, every day service all the way to Niagara Falls is part of that build out. It's not hard to see that eventually extended right into Buffalo.

In our lifetimes, I seriously doubt we see any extensive ridership beyond Hamilton. Niagara Falls to Toronto would be an absurd commute, and crossing an intl border impossible.

And again, salaries are higher in Buffalo. Why would people commute 2 hours each way for lower salaries? Buffalo has lots of issues but doesn't particularly lack for jobs. Supercommuting only makes sense when you have job-poor areas proximate to job-rich areas, and there are extreme wage differentials (so Central Valley to Bay Area or NE PA to NYC).

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

And again, salaries are higher in Buffalo.

Buffalo is a bigger version of Syracuse and Utica thus rather stagnant with depressed wages. Unless areas in Ontario are equally depressed economically, I don't know how wages can't get any worse than Buffalo.

Originally Posted by isaidso

What would you argue is better in Houston over Dallas? If it's not long term economic prospects is it real estate prices, entertainment/culture, etc? Are there benefits for being on the Gulf of Mexico?

It's a matter of preference. Houston's climate is a bit milder; more humid but not as cold in the winter and not as hot in the summer. tempered by the gulf. The two metros are more alike than they are different. Houston is more laid back to many where Dallas is more buttoned up.

[Docere]

I am told Houston is the more "blue collar" city and Dallas the more "white collar" city but they look pretty similar socioeconomically too.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by isaidso

What would you argue is better in Houston over Dallas? If it's not long term economic prospects is it real estate prices, entertainment/culture, etc? Are there benefits for being on the Gulf of Mexico?

If you have a decent job, then it's a matter of chocolate vs vanilla. I'm biased but I enjoy Houston's grittier, "Southern Gulf" culture over DFW's more clean cut,"Midwestern-like" culture.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by JManc

Buffalo is a bigger version of Syracuse and Utica thus rather stagnant with depressed wages. Unless areas in Ontario are equally depressed economically, I don't know how wages can't get any worse than Buffalo.

The median household income in the Toronto metro is CAD78,000. That's just USD 59,700, but I find that most consumer goods have the same sticker price. For example, when I open up a menu at a restaurant in the US, I often mistake it for prices in Canada...until the credit card bill arrives.

Of course the big exception - especially in a Toronto vs. Buffalo comparison - is the cost of housing. Now a Buffalonian would not pay Toronto housing prices, but they would have to pay American consumer goods prices on a Canadian salary.

And, of course, there's the fact that Americans have to pay American income taxes no matter where they live.

[Docere]

Dallas = more like Oklahoma, Houston = more like Louisiana?

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by Docere

I am told Houston is the more "blue collar" city and Dallas the more "white collar" city but they look pretty similar socioeconomically too.

Traditionally that's the profile and it's true: Houston has coastline and an industrial Southeast side, DFW doesn't have a major blue collar area, let alone a coast.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by JManc

Buffalo is a bigger version of Syracuse and Utica thus rather stagnant with depressed wages. Unless areas in Ontario are equally depressed economically, I don't know how wages can't get any worse than Buffalo.

I bet you apples to apples salaries for professional positions are higher (probably significantly higher) in Buffalo than in adjacent parts of Canada. Buffalo is a very blue collar town, so overall salaries are moderate. But a doctor, consultant or corporate lawyer is highly unlikely to receive an equivalent salary in, say, St. Catherines.

And the U.S. is basically the only country that has punitive income taxes for working outside the U.S. The only advantage would be real estate costs, but factoring in RE taxes, I doubt a home in a Buffalo suburb is much cheaper than one across the river.

Totally anecdotal, but Canadian workers appear common in Metro Detroit. Nurses, especially, skew very Canadian, given the salary differentials and the huge hospitals on the U.S. side. I haven't heard of Americans crossing into Canada for work, but I'm sure it happens.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Docere

Dallas = more like Oklahoma, Houston = more like Louisiana?

More or less. They both sit at cultural/geographic crossroads. Travel south down the coast from Houston and Mexican influences become very apparent. DFW’s southern-ish influence comes from East Texas/North Louisiana/Arkansas piney woods.

[IrishIllini]

Can Dallas/Texas buy enough jobs to add 200,000+ per year for the next ten years? Could the area keep pace with housing and infrastructure? I don’t see it.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Totally anecdotal, but Canadian workers appear common in Metro Detroit. Nurses, especially, skew very Canadian, given the salary differentials and the huge hospitals on the U.S. side. I haven't heard of Americans crossing into Canada for work, but I'm sure it happens.

When I was in college I used to do volunteer work in downtown Detroit a couple of evenings per week. I would usually be on I-96 driving towards downtown (and the border) during the evening rush hour and it always stuck out how many Ontario license plates there were driving in the same direction. This was like 2004 or 2005, when Michigan's economy was terrible, so I wouldn't be surprised if there were even more cross border daily commuters now. But any Detroit to Windsor commuters would be doing so for extremely specific reasons, and most likely employed by a company operating on both sides of the border (and paid in US dollars).

I don't think Buffalo to Toronto daily commuters will be a thing for the reasons you pointed out, but Buffalo could make an attractive place to establish American presence of Toronto based companies similar to how the Detroit automakers established their Canadian HQs in Windsor.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I bet you apples to apples salaries for professional positions are higher (probably significantly higher) in Buffalo than in adjacent parts of Canada. Buffalo is a very blue collar town, so overall salaries are moderate. But a doctor, consultant or corporate lawyer is highly unlikely to receive an equivalent salary in, say, St. Catherines.

And the U.S. is basically the only country that has punitive income taxes for working outside the U.S. The only advantage would be real estate costs, but factoring in RE taxes, I doubt a home in a Buffalo suburb is much cheaper than one across the river.

Totally anecdotal, but Canadian workers appear common in Metro Detroit. Nurses, especially, skew very Canadian, given the salary differentials and the huge hospitals on the U.S. side. I haven't heard of Americans crossing into Canada for work, but I'm sure it happens.

Doctors and lawyers, sure. These two groups probably are the highest paid in the Utica area as well on average but the least likely to want or need to commute. They can live anywhere but have plenty of business right where they are. And yes, American health professionals tend to make more.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Docere

Dallas = more like Oklahoma, Houston = more like Louisiana?

dallas even feels more (western) midwestern or plains to me. you start to see similarities to say kansas city, or at least part of it (its southwestern kansas suburbs). the sphere of influence of the dallas area is strong enough to reach even into sw missouri.

[Trae]

Originally Posted by JManc

I think Dallas will eventually pull away; Houston is poorer/more blue collar and still too exposed to oil and gas fluctuations while Dallas has more (non energy) corporate HQ's and seems to be pulling in more. We lost most of ours via mergers and failures.

The difference in COL between Houston and Dallas is negligible so not sure how you see Houston as poorer. More blue collar? Yes but that doesn't mean people are making less money either.

I think it's telling that DFW is going through it's biggest economic expansion ever while Houston is getting out of its worst slump since the 80s, yet they are still nearly identical in economic importance and most metrics. What this tells me is all it will take is for Houston to continue to diversify (already happening), and it has the potential to shoot right past DFW again like in the 1980s.

DFW may receive a lot of corporate relos, but it's still more of a back office center, not innovation center. I think that's what is holding some of its potential back. It's the strong suburban culture where everyone wants the new suburb further north. Houston residents like the new suburbs too, but according to the recent urban area numbers, Houston is more likely to build new units intown than in the boonies.

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I bet you apples to apples salaries for professional positions are higher (probably significantly higher) in Buffalo than in adjacent parts of Canada. Buffalo is a very blue collar town, so overall salaries are moderate. But a doctor, consultant or corporate lawyer is highly unlikely to receive an equivalent salary in, say, St. Catherines.

And the U.S. is basically the only country that has punitive income taxes for working outside the U.S. The only advantage would be real estate costs, but factoring in RE taxes, I doubt a home in a Buffalo suburb is much cheaper than one across the river.

Totally anecdotal, but Canadian workers appear common in Metro Detroit. Nurses, especially, skew very Canadian, given the salary differentials and the huge hospitals on the U.S. side. I haven't heard of Americans crossing into Canada for work, but I'm sure it happens.

There are tons of Americans that live in Toronto; over 100,000 in many estimates. I've met several of them at my kids' school.

https://torontosun.com/2016/09/24/ar...5-e39c436e0250

On a separate note, on your extreme commuter anecdotal account, Jack Armstrong (Toronto Raptors TV commentator), lives in Lewiston, NY (across from Niagara Falls) with his wife and travels to Toronto for work.

By the way, your comments seem, most of the time, to be full of inaccuracies, partial truths and generalizations. Just saying.

[L41A]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

There are tons of Americans that live in Toronto; over 100,000 in many estimates. I've met several of them at my kids' school.

https://torontosun.com/2016/09/24/ar...5-e39c436e0250

On a separate note, on your extreme commuter anecdotal account, Jack Armstrong (Toronto Raptors TV commentator), lives in Lewiston, NY (across from Niagara Falls) with his wife and travels to Toronto for work.

By the way, your comments seem, most of the time, to be full of inaccuracies, partial truths and generalizations. Just saying.

You ain't lied yet.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

There are tons of Americans that live in Toronto; over 100,000 in many estimates. I've met several of them at my kids' school.

I don't understand the relevance. We aren't talking about American citizens living in Canada (or the inverse), obviously.

[PFloyd]

Edit

[dc_denizen]

Cross border commuting should be made easier, eg no reason Windsor should be shut off from Detroit’s job market when their right next to each other

Although judging by some folks on this site many Canadians likely don’t know that Detroit has a job market

Anyhow, zero relevance to the topic

Dallas is not going to keep growing like this forever. Cost of living will increase and the sunbelt is incredibly competitive. Dallas seems to be getting some nice multifamily infill though via the jobs boom. Companies will eventually start looking at Birmingham , Knoxville, Chattanooga, mobile, etc

[PhillyRising]

Originally Posted by chris08876

I'm just showing the concept. Even with HOA, its still a bargain. I'd rather buy than rent. Still, a Dallas McMansion is still cheaper than one in NJ or one closer to NYC in Bergen or Connecticut or Long Island.

But there isn't some sort of mystical or voodoo charm as to why some folks are leaving the expensive coasts. Bang for the buck means a lot for folks and if you can land a good job making similar or better than in an expensive state, seems like a good proposition.

Single folks without families can budge in many expensive metros, but you tack on a few kids, a wife, and all the bs that comes with a family, and it gets quite expensive. Day care costs, groceries, private school (because if you live in a dumb neighborhood, those tend to not have the best schools).



Renting is like giving that homeless guy in San Francisco your hard earned money. You will never, ever get it back. And than, you'll get a nice raise in your rent by the end of the year as a prize for your compassion.

Makes sense when one is young, but with families, if you want to build a decent net worth, buying is the way to go (for the common folks).



We must not forget the idea of order of magnitudes. We are talking about how DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030. Its not just a select club that can afford those high priced neighborhoods.

When we are talking the common folks, we have to set the standard to show reality. A tree lined street in DoBro or DUMBO or Carroll Gardens is not reality for most folks.

Buying is overrated. Say you buy a house for 300K and mortgage it for 30 years. You wind up paying close to 500k when you add in the interest payments and then the house is still most likely worth less than what you actually paid for it if you don't live in a area with rising values. Plus you have to pay all the upkeep and renovations. You don't own the house when you pay a mortgage. The bank owns it until you pay them in full. Then the bank expects you to keep up the property while you are paying the mortgage. Home ownership is costly. So the equity you wind up getting comes at price.

I "owned" for 20 years. I was always in debt trying to keep up the houses. I sold 5 years ago and went back to renting. I was able to increase my 401K and I have more liquidity. I'm also debt free. I love my apartment, I don't worry about having to pay for fixing anything and when I want to move, I don't have to go through the hassle of selling the house and paying someone a commission to sell it.

My advice is that if anyone who wants to own a home and make it worth their money, they need to put down no less thant 40% of the cost and take a shorter term mortgage. Being house poor only keeps you poor. Home ownership does makes sense for many but not for all. So when you tell someone like me I am wasting my money by renting, I will have to disagree because I made more money investing in my retirement account than the house I sold appreciated. In fact, the townhouse I sold here in Chester County, PA for 310K in 2014 is only showing being worth 337K now. That is a nice increase but I made about 6 times that increase on my retirement account by investing money that I freed up from having to pay for a house. It's just me and my partner, we are in our 50's, no kids and we had 20+ years left on a mortgage that we had refinanced twice. It made no financial sense to keep that house. I would have had to dip in to retirement savings to upgrade and replace on the house.

With housing so costly now, you really have to have a ton of cash to really make it financially worthwhile. Plus a nice neighborhood today can be a one in decline in 30 years. It's a gamble. At least with my account I can move it to something safe quickly if the markets start to tank. You can't do that with a house and many people found that out in 2008.