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  #81  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:19 AM
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Originally Posted by bunt_q View Post
You guys have no experience in development, do you? This thread is full of statements that are just leagues away from the reality of how and why buildings are built in the U.S.









Zapatan, how old are you? I only ask because your take on development seems very immature. Or you just don't understand/agree with the way things are done in the U.S.

The most important question you need to ask and answer is - who builds buildings in the U.S.? I don't think you understand the concept of private development.

The U.S. does not build skyscrapers. Society does not build skyscrapers. Even cities do not build skyscrapers. Private companies build them. Every U.S. city is different - in terms of regulations on development, and in terms of demand. But the most important thing - skyscrapers are built to make money. If they don't make economic sense, they don't happen, plain and simple.

The lack of skyscrapers in the U.S. has nothing to do with showing off. It has nothing to do with defeatism. It has everything to do with there simply being no financial reason to build supertalls (outside of NYC). And companies tend not to do things that will lose them money if they can help it.

Skyscrapers in many countries (Dubai!) are sort of like state-run factories in socialist economies... they may sound good, but they make absolutely no economic sense, and when they have to compete openly, they often (even usually) fail. Or, they only make financial sense because the rules of the game are different - take away private property and implement central land planning, and suddenly a lot of things can work. But they're not "efficient" in the economic sense.

To answer the question about whether supertalls are likely to happen in the U.S. - no, probably not. The combination of demand for office space, cheap transportation/telecommunication, the economics of tall buildings (which mhays already described), and the peculiarities of land use regulation/local governance in most U.S. metropolitan areas probably means no, we won't build supertalls again.

Again, I'm not sure if you have any academic or professional knowledge of development... but even if wanted to encourage supertalls in U.S. cities, how could we do it? First off, you'd need market demand for 2-million square feet of office space - that alone is a challenge. Second, you'd need to limit competing development, which is also impossible because, in U.S. cities, there are dozens of (competing) local governments, each with their own land use regulations. With that, you'd need a company willing to lease all of that space, that would also be willing to wait three years for construction, and also wouldn't be tempted by other office space that would cost half as much and could be built twice as fast. And sorry, but for U.S. companies, there's not that much money to be made on ego alone. Maybe in the 1920s a big building made sense as a marketing strategy. Today, a clever Super Bowl commercial is worth far more.

I could build myself the tallest tower around, but in a corporate "dick-fencing" match with Steve Jobs or Bill Gates and their low-rise office campuses, I'd still lose. Because they make a ton of money, and that is what is considered "winning" in the U.S. Big buildings don't make people jealous; that's just not how most Americans think. We're much more interested in the livability of our cities these days. I'd much rather have a good streetcar network (19th century technology, maybe, but we sure do miss it) than a new supertall for my city.

Hell, I'm a skyscraper fan, who here isn't? But I wouldn't say tall buildings really impress me per se. As an engineering feat, they're really not all that complicated anymore. If you take away economic/functionality restrictions, I'm not sure there's really any limit to what we could technically build. So what's the point? We went to the moon to prove we could. There's no reason to build to 3,000 feet if you can't fill the building - that's just not a terribly impressive feat - we already know we can do it.

EDIT: Sort of an aside, but there are probably only a handful of places in the U.S. where local zoning would even allow a supertall to be built. Even in Denver, where we technically have no height limit in the downtown core, by the time you run the numbers on FAR maximums and how big of a parcel you'd need to assemble to do it, a 1,000-footer becomes almost impossible; certainly improbable with any floorplates that make even remote economic sense.

I suppose what would impress me is not just building tall, but doing it (a) cheaply and (b) with small footprints. Building modern supertalls for $150 per square foot - now that's something I'd be proud of. I suppose that's sort of like the dream of a cheap, pollution free, unlimited energy source for my car, too.

Why did the skyscraper race happen in the first place? It was done by private developers.

America will never see supertalls? How come Miami, LA and SF all have new tallest proposals, not to mention NYC. And Chicago as well just finished an 1180 foot building a few years back. How do you know the interest to build tall won't come back if and after buildings like that are built.

It is a defeatest attitude, even if it cost more money, they old WTC should have been built higher than the new one, just for the sake of national pride. Everybody is always Asia bashing for their skyscrapers that "don't make sense" but I don't see any crash in the forseeable future.

The US will have 400 million people by 2050 as well, hopefully that can help be the incentive for more skyscrapers.
     
     
  #82  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:25 AM
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You're not getting it.
     
     
  #83  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Zapatan View Post
It is a defeatest attitude, even if it cost more money, they old WTC should have been built higher than the new one, just for the sake of national pride. Everybody is always Asia bashing for their skyscrapers that "don't make sense" but I don't see any crash in the forseeable future.
Oh no here we go again. I have a feeling at least once you were a Twin Towers II supporter.
     
     
  #84  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:36 AM
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No I was not, I just wish the new WTC was taller.

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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
You're not getting it.
Getting what? There's nothing not to get.

The Chicago spire would have been built if it weren't for the recession.



People have been saying that the US won't be seeing supertalls at all anymore and I proved that wrong with several supertall proposals likely to be built all around the country. And after those are built the interest in building tall may come back.


Whatever, personally I think Americans are just really jealous of Asia.
     
     
  #85  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:54 AM
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Obviously supertalls are getting built, and also obviously the US isn't in any sort of race.

Mostly, what you're not getting is that "shoulds," national pride, incentives, jealousy, etc., have little to do with anything. The ONLY exception would be the new WTC, which obviously has a ton of subsidy.

As for the Chicago Spire, the absence of recession won't be enough. It would need another supercharged condo market...not just good but outstanding. It's an extremely expensive project per square foot, and won't be convenient to live in, meaning one hell of a view premium would be needed. That's not counting the trust that buyers, the developer, and lenders would need, which they won't have anytime soon even as the economy recovers.
     
     
  #86  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Zapatan View Post
No I was not, I just wish the new WTC was taller.



Getting what? There's nothing not to get.

The Chicago spire would have been built if it weren't for the recession.



People have been saying that the US won't be seeing supertalls at all anymore and I proved that wrong with several supertall proposals likely to be built all around the country. And after those are built the interest in building tall may come back.


Whatever, personally I think Americans are just really jealous of Asia.
Not really. We are more envious of the transportation Asia has. We are stuck having a slow rail transport, and poor mass transit while other people have it. That is the problem. We don't really care about skyscrapers as much as you think we do.
     
     
  #87  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:59 AM
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I agree with that. Outside of groupie boards like this, not many people pine for skyscrapers in the real world! Even on SSP, most of us would put transit and urban fabric far above skyscrapers, or so a thread or two has indicated in the past.
     
     
  #88  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 5:05 AM
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Would be cool to have the odd 1200 - 1500 ft go up even in the biggest cities like what Hong Kong and Shanghai has, especially with the unique designs they have as well.
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  #89  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 5:10 AM
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Curvy, odd-shaped designs often cost a lot of money, due to odd structural dynamics, the lack of repetition, etc. That's unless the odd shapes are mostly tacked on. Real odd shapes can happen if the added rents are commensurate with the added costs....but it's difficult.
     
     
  #90  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 3:21 PM
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The US has a WTC with supertalls in it, it's WFC doesn't have any supertalls in it which was probably a missed opportunity.

That leaves a World Commerce Center so if the US builds a WCC, that can be a supertall, perhaps even as tall as the ICC.
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  #91  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 4:23 PM
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The World Trade Center site is a bad example because of the enormous subsidies and insurance money, and the high-profile nature of the site. But the fact that those buildings didn't end up taller should tell you something. The private sector side of that project was dragged kicking and screaming to the height we're getting. The free market would've demanded much less.

The important question is still who would provide the subsidies to build supertalls?

By the way, I'm not saying that conditions can't conspire to to get us a few tall buildings here and there, in New York, and maybe Chicago. But generally speaking, it's not a building form that makes financial sense. And in the U.S., if it doesn't make money, we don't do it. And not just money, but the best money you can get for a given investment. To get rich is glorious!

(By the way, there is nothing in Asia that I am jealous of, except probably for the food. Transportation, but only really in Japan - there's nothing glamorous about half-empty bullet trains in China. And the weather, at least in southeast Asia. That's it. I'm still much more jealous of Europe and the livability of their cities.)
     
     
  #92  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 5:40 PM
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Originally Posted by M II A II R II K View Post
The US has a WTC with supertalls in it, it's WFC doesn't have any supertalls in it which was probably a missed opportunity.

That leaves a World Commerce Center so if the US builds a WCC, that can be a supertall, perhaps even as tall as the ICC.
They could build a new World Trade Center as well maybe in New Jersey. Large cities and large places are where I would expect one.
     
     
  #93  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 5:51 PM
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Large cities and large places are where I would expect one.
That's logical, considering I don't know of a single jurisdiction outside of a large city that would allow one.

I think we need a forum "zoning and land use regulation 101" course.
     
     
  #94  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 6:07 PM
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This thread is just going to bickering. Zapatan,if you classify skyscrapers as the only symbols of the might and financial power of a city,country, or region,then you are far away from reality. The U.S. is trying to adopt Europe's livable conditions. Besides,most of the countries that are getting taller buildings than America are developing or upcoming economies in Asia trying to show that they can be great by showing off big dicks. We are not going to follow these methods unless we need to,and we don't need to.
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  #95  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 7:31 PM
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Originally Posted by jd3189 View Post
This thread is just going to bickering. Zapatan,if you classify skyscrapers as the only symbols of the might and financial power of a city,country, or region,then you are far away from reality. The U.S. is trying to adopt Europe's livable conditions. Besides,most of the countries that are getting taller buildings than America are developing or upcoming economies in Asia trying to show that they can be great by showing off big dicks. We are not going to follow these methods unless we need to,and we don't need to.


It's NOT just about showing off big dicks ... I'm sick of hearing that... it's about engineering and ingenuity as well!

It's sad that there's such a low interest in building tall in the west.
     
     
  #96  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 8:10 PM
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The engineering on tall buildings is not a terribly great challenge. There may be site-specific challenges, but generally, just building higher isn't itself difficult.

Developers do not build things just to build them. They need purpose and profit.

Would you just answer the question - who do you propose build these supertalls? Who do you propose subsidize them? Or where do you propose the money come from?

Last edited by bunt_q; Dec 28, 2011 at 8:39 PM.
     
     
  #97  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 8:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Zapatan View Post
It's NOT just about showing off big dicks ... I'm sick of hearing that... it's about engineering and ingenuity as well!

It's sad that there's such a low interest in building tall in the west.
If you want to see big skyscrapers then travel back to China. No need to bother the USA to build them so you can see them for your selfish gains.
     
     
  #98  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 9:01 PM
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Check out the proposed condo prices on the One57 tower in NYC (that somebody posted in the other thread - http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...161764&page=91), and tell me how many other U.S. cities could support those price points.
     
     
  #99  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 9:04 PM
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Have you kept up to date on NYC? It's the only place in the world where the economics/financing ARE actually there to build supertall buildings, and last time I checked NYC was in the US...

That's not to say there will be a 2000'er in NYC anytime soon, but the sheer number of supertalls either under construction or in the planning stages shows your point to be wrong.
No, it most certainly does NOT, babybackribs. It goes to show that only in one city in this country is it feasible, due to the extremely high cost of land and the extremely desirable location for financial and certain other businesses to locate there.

It doesn't negate my point one iota, in fact.

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  #100  
Old Posted Dec 28, 2011, 9:08 PM
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I believe the only way the U.S. will be getting supertalls is if our private businesses become successful once again. Currently, they are not,but in the coming years when the economy gets stronger, maybe we will see. After all, we only have skyscrapers because of them. Unless the demand of residential or hotel buildings rise,like One 57 in NY.
Absolutely wrong. U.S. businesses (especially big businesses that would be likely to lease a large amount of space in a signature tower) are doing just peachy right now. Have you looked at the average corporate profit numbers for the last year or two? They're up literally 25-40% from a few years ago! Companies are doing fine, but people aren't, because companies simply cut and cut and cut their staff, then hiring overseas when they need to finally add more.

This is, again, false.

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