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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 12:54 AM
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Births fueling Hispanic growth in the U.S.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...ispanics_N.htm

Births fueling Hispanic growth

By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
Births, not immigration, now account for most of the growth in the nation's Hispanic population, a distinct reversal of trends of the past 30 years.

The Hispanic baby boom is transforming the demographics of small-town America in a dramatic way. Some rural counties where the population had been shrinking and aging are growing because of Hispanic immigration and births and now must provide services for the young.

"In all of the uproar over immigration, this is getting missed," says Kenneth Johnson, demographer at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute. "All the focus is on immigration, immigration, immigration. At some point, it's not. It's natural increase."

This natural increase — more births than deaths — is accelerating among Hispanics in the USA because they are younger than the U.S. population as a whole. Their median age is 27.4, compared with 37.9 overall, 40.8 for whites, 35.4 for Asians and 31.1 for blacks.

Because they are younger and likely to have more children, Hispanics are having an impact that far outlasts their initial entry into the country.

From 2000 to 2007, the Hispanic population grew by 10.2 million — 58.6% from natural increase. The total U.S. population grew 20.2 million, about 60% from natural increase, in that period. About 6.8 million Hispanics were born and 812,000 died, according to Johnson's research of data from the National Center for Health Statistics.

In some established immigrant gateways such as Los Angeles and Chicago, all the Hispanic growth comes from natural increase, according to Johnson's analysis.

The impact on rural America is seen in areas such as Bureau and Putnam counties, Ill., where dentist Ernesto Villalobos treats a growing Hispanic population. Since the counties' health department dental clinic in the rural part of north-central Illinois hired the Spanish-speaking Villalobos about three years ago, the number of patients has grown from 3,000 to 8,000.

The growth of Hispanic populations in parts of the country where few lived previously has intensified this decade. From 2000 to 2005, 221 counties would not have grown except for Hispanics, according to research by Johnson and Daniel Lichter at Cornell University. Their findings are reported in this month's Population and Development Review, a demographic journal published by the Population Council.

For declining counties, many in the Great Plains, the growth in young Hispanics may be the only way out of a population spiral.

"Demographically, they can't recover unless something like this happens," Johnson says. "There's no way older white populations can replace themselves."

Because more than half of births to Hispanic immigrants are to low-income women who have no high school degree, a natural population increase challenges communities
, says Steve Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which promotes limits on immigration.

"It's a huge growth in low-income population and low tax payments," he says. "If the town is not viable economically, immigration is not going to fix that problem."

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  #2  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 12:59 AM
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http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...anicside_N.htm

Counties feel impact of Hispanic immigrants


By Adam Gerik, USA TODAY
Historic buildings line Main Street in downtown Princeton, Ill. Although Bureau County has experienced declining population, there has been an influx of Hispanics.



Source: USA TODAY map by Paul Overberg, analysis of Census and National Center for Health Statistics data by Kenneth Johnson, University of New Hampshire.
The Hispanic population is growing more from births than immigration in many U.S. counties.


By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
Workers at the health department for Illinois' Bureau and Putnam counties don't need to look at a schedule to see whether the bilingual dentist is on duty.

"We tease around here that it's Spanish day because that's all we hear in the hallway," says Diana Rawlings, public health administrator for the two counties.

Since the agency's dental clinic in a rural part of north-central Illinois hired a Spanish-speaking dentist about three years ago, the number of patients has grown from 3,000 to 8,000.

"The Hispanic community is getting more and more comfortable coming here, and that's the goal of public health," Rawlings says. "We do see a lot of children in our dental clinic."

The arrival of Hispanics in remote and rural areas far from traditional gateways has been going on for years. What's new is a pronounced demographic shift unfolding because these young immigrants are having children. Births outnumber deaths, and the population increases.

Though it's happening everywhere immigrants are settling, the impact is more striking in smaller, rural communities that have not grown or have been shrinking because young people have been leaving and those who stay are older and dying.

The contrasting trend will reshape the social and cultural fabric of rural America for decades, according to new research.

"Substantial natural increase among new Hispanic immigrants has dampened or even offset recent … population declines in rural communities," says Kenneth Johnson, co-author of research published in a demographic journal this month. "Hispanic population growth has taken on a demographic momentum of its own. Restricting immigration will not end the browning of America."

Bureau County has had a net population loss since 1980, but the Hispanic population is growing, attracted by food processing plants there and in neighboring counties.

Now, more than half of the growth in Hispanics comes from births.

"In our community, of the people who have lived here since the 1950s, the majority are elderly citizens," says Don Bosnich, president of Depue Village. "Of the Hispanic population, I would guess that 75% of them are new."

Grady County, Ga., rich with fields that grow peanuts, soybeans and corn on the Florida state line, grew about 4% to 24,719 from 2000 to 2006. The number of Hispanics almost doubled to 2,382, according to Census estimates.

"It's put a strain on our emergency services," says Rusty Moye, county administrator, who says the number of Hispanics is underestimated. "They're actually using our emergency rooms as their health clinics because when they get sick, they have no doctor. They're all indigents."

Despite newcomers' boost to dwindling populations, communities are not always convinced that supporting them is worth the cost.

"It can create real challenges in the long term," says Steve Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that favors limiting immigration.

For a nation bracing to support 79 million Baby Boomers in their old age, the growing and younger population of Hispanics should be viewed as economic salvation, says Dowell Myers, demographer at the University of Southern California and author of Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America.

"Children are always a fiscal burden, yet children are also the lifeblood of every community," he says. "What's killing Japan and threatening the economic future of Europe is that they don't have enough kids, and that's what's depriving these rural areas in America."

The upward mobility of immigrants is not visible until they have been here awhile, Myers says. His research shows substantial progress the longer they're in the USA. As Baby Boomers age, "immigration may be the best way to get needed workers, taxpayers and home buyers," he says.
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  #3  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 4:17 AM
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"The total U.S. population grew 20.2 million, about 60% from natural increase, in that period."

That's really surprising to me. I've read that Canada's population would be in slight decline were it not for immigration. The same is true of many other countries, like Germany.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 4:27 AM
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are you sure it's not from the onion?
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  #5  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 4:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Will View Post
"The total U.S. population grew 20.2 million, about 60% from natural increase, in that period."

That's really surprising to me. I've read that Canada's population would be in slight decline were it not for immigration. The same is true of many other countries, like Germany.
Americans, across both racial and ethnic lines, tend to have a higher birthrate than most other developed countries. I think it's been this way for quite some time, too.
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  #6  
Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 4:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Will View Post
"The total U.S. population grew 20.2 million, about 60% from natural increase, in that period."

That's really surprising to me. I've read that Canada's population would be in slight decline were it not for immigration. The same is true of many other countries, like Germany.
Germany's population IS in decline. Despite heavy immigration, the birth rate of only 1.3 means that Germany is losing over 100,000 residents annually (and it is accelerating).

In comparison, the U.S. has a birthrate of 2.2

Canada has a much lower birth rate than the U.S., but it has much higher immigration rates, so it is growing about the same as the U.S.

The U.S. has the highest birth rate among the rich nations. France is second. France actually has very low immigration (despite stereotypes to the contrary) and is growing due to internal growth.

France. the U.K., Ireland, Netherlands and Norway (maybe Sweden too?) all have healthy birth rates for Europe. Basically everyone else in Eueope has some concerns.

Among the countries losing population: South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Germany, Russia and most of Eastern Europe.

Spain, China and Thailand (!) will likely start losing population very soon.

Hong Kong and Singapore have some of the lowest rates in the world, but they grow through immigration.

I think South Korea is the lowest on earth.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 5:32 AM
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s. Korea is the lowest on earth.

Italy's growth rate is the lowest in Europe I believe. Or one of the lowest at 1.1.

The New York Times Magazine just did an article on birthrates this past weekend.

Among the findings were that countries that have been more conservative or traditional in the past tend to have lower birth rates (Italy, Greece and Spain). Countries with the highest birthrates are actually in more progressive and liberal countries of Europe (Norway, France, UK...).

Link for those interested in details the details (includes an explanation why the U.S. continues to buck the falling birthrate trend):
http://www.nytimes.com/pages/magazine/
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 7:59 AM
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Is it bad news that Japan, South Korea and Europe's populations are falling? Good for the environment, though possibly bad for the population's retirement prospects. But if you live so long that you have to retire, you're living too long anyways.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 8:05 AM
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Yes, because the elderly are burdens to society.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 8:36 AM
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Yes, because the elderly are burdens to society.
It wasn't an issue until humans started messing with nature and directed medical science toward staving off death and keeping people alive forever in every way possible, even when every part of their body is falling apart.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 2:49 PM
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Actually, disability rates at every age have been falling for the last hundred or so years. In fact they've been falling so quickly, and workplace environments have gotten so much better, that the proportion of people who are disabled (in the sense of having reduced capacity to work for medical reasons) has been decreasing, or at most stagnant, despite generally rising lifespans.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 3:44 PM
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^this has also been my understanding, contrary to Nutter's view.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 4:14 PM
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It wasn't an issue until humans started messing with nature and directed medical science toward staving off death and keeping people alive forever in every way possible, even when every part of their body is falling apart.
Expanding lifespans have been largely overstated by the media. While the mean lifespan has risen dramatically over the last couple centuries, the median lifespan has edged up by a few years. Consider how many fewer children are expected to die of disease or young adults are expected to be fatally injured on the job. These common occurrences drove the mean lifespan down substantially; but if people had survived early accident and disease back in the day, an individual could still be expected to reach 70 years old with adequate nutrition.

Moreover, as we move towards intellectual and service industries, the productivity of the elderly has generally outpaced the difference in lifespan (of course, most people feel entitled to retire at the arbitrary age of 65, but that's an entirely different matter).
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 5:00 PM
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"Because more than half of births to Hispanic immigrants are to low-income women who have no high school degree, a natural population increase challenges communities"

this is a very alarming trend.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 5:02 PM
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educated people of all colors need to start fucking more.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 5:27 PM
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It wasn't an issue until humans started messing with nature and directed medical science toward staving off death and keeping people alive forever in every way possible, even when every part of their body is falling apart.
OK, you first, bud.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 5:35 PM
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I haven't noticed this trend in Miami. It seems the article is referring mainly to the migrant (and settled migrants) population.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 6:23 PM
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i thought this was obvious. had to take my mother to county clinic a while back and at least 80% of the people in the waiting area were very young hispanic women (early 20's) seeking neonatal care and already had a couple of kids.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 7:57 PM
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Originally Posted by alex1 View Post

Among the findings were that countries that have been more conservative or traditional in the past tend to have lower birth rates (Italy, Greece and Spain). Countries with the highest birthrates are actually in more progressive and liberal countries of Europe (Norway, France, UK...).
I'm afraid that's not true!!!

That NYT article you're talking about mentioned 2 exceptions in Europe that defy this rule, and nobody knows why -- Germany and Austria.

These two countries are liberal and progressive and yet have extremely low birthrates. The article just gave up trying to explain that, aside from mentioning it briefly.
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Old Posted Jul 1, 2008, 8:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Nutterbug View Post
Is it bad news that Japan, South Korea and Europe's populations are falling? Good for the environment, though possibly bad for the population's retirement prospects. But if you live so long that you have to retire, you're living too long anyways.
So I suppose your plan is to die young???
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