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  #121  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 5:14 PM
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Originally Posted by drummer View Post
I'm under the impression that the Chinese population estimates are quite a bit lower than reality, especially in the mega-cities (10 million +). I think Guangdong, for instance, very well could already have reached 130 million people. I lived in Nanjing for several years and in Yunnan for many more and traveled fairly extensively for work. I'm always amazed by the population density in these cities. I also love the inter-connectivity with HSR and metros/buses throughout many of them. That type of density isn't for everyone, but I enjoyed my time there.
It all depends on how good they are at estimating undocumented migrants... In some areas in china, especially on the east coast, and in east coast industrial hubs in particular (*cough cough* Guangdong *cough*), tens of millions of people live invisibly and illegally.. they live in basements and janitorial closets and warehouse back rooms, they are paid under the table to get around minimum wage laws, and they send all their money home to their families in rural areas, so all the stats (census stats, taxation stats, and gdp stats) of the cities where they live don't reflect the real population. I think this problem is far less severe now than it was in the 90's and 00's, but you're not crazy for feeling like these cities are bigger than they say they are, because thats exactly right
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I heard the UN is moving its HQ there. The eiffel tower is moving there soon as well. Elon Musk even decided he didnt want to go to mars anymore after visiting.

Last edited by jbermingham123; Aug 23, 2021 at 5:33 PM.
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  #122  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 6:09 PM
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Originally Posted by jbermingham123 View Post
It all depends on how good they are at estimating undocumented migrants... In some areas in china, especially on the east coast, and in east coast industrial hubs in particular (*cough cough* Guangdong *cough*), tens of millions of people live invisibly and illegally.. they live in basements and janitorial closets and warehouse back rooms, they are paid under the table to get around minimum wage laws, and they send all their money home to their families in rural areas, so all the stats (census stats, taxation stats, and gdp stats) of the cities where they live don't reflect the real population. I think this problem is far less severe now than it was in the 90's and 00's, but you're not crazy for feeling like these cities are bigger than they say they are, because thats exactly right
On the other hand, there are rumours China population is inflated, up to 100 million depending on the source, as a form to mask their population slow down for a while.
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  #123  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 6:28 PM
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Originally Posted by drummer View Post
I'm under the impression that the Chinese population estimates are quite a bit lower than reality, especially in the mega-cities (10 million +). I think Guangdong, for instance, very well could already have reached 130 million people. I lived in Nanjing for several years and in Yunnan for many more and traveled fairly extensively for work. I'm always amazed by the population density in these cities. I also love the inter-connectivity with HSR and metros/buses throughout many of them. That type of density isn't for everyone, but I enjoyed my time there.
The conventional wisdom among demographers is the opposite and that China has been, as yuriandrade stated, been fudging the numbers a bit to make their inevitable demographic collapse less apparent. Based on what some researchers believe is the true fertility rate in China, their population will decrease from the reported 1.4 billion today to about 400 million by 2100, below what the US is expected to reach by then.
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  #124  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 6:51 PM
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All good points, especially the fogginess with which data is provided regarding immigrants, migrant workers, and fertility rate. Whether China's population will dip to 400 million in 2100 is interesting - I hadn't heard that. I personally have a hard time believing that to be true, but time will tell, I suppose.
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  #125  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 10:18 PM
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400 million!!? i've heard 900 million before, but perhaps that was a conservative estimate of the drop

edit: i think maybe what you meant was that it will drop by 400 million, not down to 400 million
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You guys are laughing now but Jacksonville will soon assume its rightful place as the largest and most important city on Earth.

I heard the UN is moving its HQ there. The eiffel tower is moving there soon as well. Elon Musk even decided he didnt want to go to mars anymore after visiting.

Last edited by jbermingham123; Aug 23, 2021 at 10:39 PM.
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  #126  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by jbermingham123 View Post
400 million!!? i've heard 900 million before, but perhaps that was a conservative estimate of the drop

edit: i think maybe what you meant was that it will drop by 400 million, not down to 400 million
Nope. Granted this is really just educated guessing.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...e-china-180960
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  #127  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 12:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Nope. Granted this is really just educated guessing.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...e-china-180960
I don't think a 1.4 billion (or 1.3 billion) to 400 million within 80 years is demographically possible. Nor is it any helpful to estimate population for such long timespans. 50 years years is the most we can work with some expectation to be remotely accurate.

There are countries with much worse demographics than China (South Korea, for instance) and even them are not set to have such massive decline. Bulgaria, Latvia, Puerto Rico, Ukraine are countries to look at in order to understand how a demographic collapse operates.
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  #128  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:06 AM
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Bridgeport should not be part of the New York urban area. Neither should Stamford really.

Besides contiguousness, there needs to be an urban area definition that separates cities that are historically their own centers

Eg hamilton, on
Providence
Stamford, ct
Baltimore

Etc
Stamford is unequivocally a NY burb.
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  #129  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 2:38 AM
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In my books at least, while the Pearl River Delta is the world's biggest contiguous urban area, I don't think it quite surpasses Tokyo as the world's largest metropolitan area yet. Tokyo and its various sub-cities such as Saitama and Yokohama are very well-integrated economically by a dense network of urban rail lines, which underpin the strong commuting patterns across the cities in the region.

Tokyo Metropolitan Rail Network:


That level of economic inter-connection does not yet exist in the Pearl River Delta, with the 9 cities feeling somewhat separate and distinct despite having merged into a single contiguous urban area a while back, especially along east bank of the delta. A large part of this is due to the under-developed inter-city urban rail connections in the region. Despite the region's well-developed highway links, Shenzhen to Guangzhou takes almost 2 hours by car, making close economic integration between the two cities infeasible by automobile. In the coming decade, however, the Pearl River Delta's urban rail system will expand significantly such that the infrastructure necessary for strong economic integration across cities is realized, especially by building thousands of kilometers of new commuter, suburban, and intercity rail lines in the region. I think only within the next 10-15 years will it likely be appropriate to consider the PRD a true single metropolitan area, rather than merely the world's largest urbanized region.

Pearl River Delta Urban Rail Transit Network, 2035:


Additional interesting tidbits regarding daily commuter flow between cities of the PRD as of 2020:

Quote:
Passenger Flow between the cities in Great Bay Area:

Guangzhou-Foshan: 1.763 million passengers/per day
Guangzhou-Dongguan: 461,000 passengers/per day
Guangzhou-Shenzhen: 195,000 passengers/per day
Shenzhen-Dongguan: 1.208 million passengers/per day


Data source: 2020 Guangzhou Transportation Development Annual Report

Last edited by kittyhawk28; Aug 24, 2021 at 3:13 AM.
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  #130  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Nope. Granted this is really just educated guessing.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...e-china-180960
I think the National Interest is being its usual dramatic self.

UN currently has for 2100:
  • India: 1,447,025,612
  • China: 1,064,993,456
  • Nigeria: 732,941,595
  • Europe (the entire continent): 629,562,562
  • USA: 433,853,890
  • Pakistan: 403,102,827
  • Indonesia: 320,782,425
  • Egypt: 224,735,180
  • Brazil: 180,682,762
  • Bangladesh: 151,393,018
  • Russia: 126,142,650

These demographic projections seem to consistently get downsized though, it seems. I remember when India was 1.7 billion for 2100 and the U.S. was 500 million. Nigeria was also supposed to near a billion.

I suspect we'll see continued deterioration and the ultimate numbers look something like:
  • India - 1.2 billion
  • China - 900 million (800 million in reality when factoring in the Government's need to fudge upward by 5%-10%)
  • Europe - 600 million
  • NAFTA - 580 million
  • EU - 400 million (EU projects 416.1m in 2100)
  • USA - 400 million
  • Nigeria - 350 million (I'm very Malthusian on Nigeria)
  • Pakistan - 300 million
  • Brazil - 160 million
  • Bangladesh - 130 million
  • Russia - 120 million

The ones with active immigration will see slower declines. And those that rely on natural increase will underperform far more than the UN expects.
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  #131  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:34 PM
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Does anyone actually have any links or evidence that China is overcounting its population?


For years the govt was worried about the opposite, and actually commissioned studies that showed the population wasn't bigger than speculated. They rely on census stats quite accurately in order to maintain a certain algorithm that's been used to feed 19% of the world's population on only 7% of its arable land (2/3 of the country is non-arable). There's even a Chinese name for that algorithm -it's been vital to ward off famines, wars, and to the plan of development for the nation.

Given the upheavals in economy, land usage (millions of acres of farmland losing out to growing development) and consumerism from the 1990s, it was last set at 120 million hectares reserved to keep it all sustainable.

In the 2010's China started importing food for the first time, which meant the algorithm was failing. There was a lot of speculation as to how an official population of 1.3 billion people was eating the equivalent to 1.5 billion - yes there were many undocumented children as a hangover of the one-child rule, plus many undocumented migrants, and increasing consumer intake - but repeated amnesties didn't reveal such a climb, neither did the world's largest survey industries that The Party operates. (On that note, undocumented migrants are still counted in the censuses, they're not fined, and their kids go to special migrant schools).

It took years to find out that the increases in wages and business meetings etc was the real culprit, not extra people. The tradition for Chinese banquets (where so much food is cooked the hundreds of guests can't possibly finish 20+ courses), thrown at every wedding, festival and business deal was haemorrhaging the food industry - enough to feed 200 million. They found out in 2013:


The Incredible Waste of Chinese Banquets


To this day banquets are now banned for govt officials and frowned upon at large, though they still operate covertly against 'Operation Clean Plate'. The country still budgets for an extra 200 million, still imports food etc, but it doesn't pretend that they're made up by undocumented mouths to feed.

Last edited by muppet; Aug 24, 2021 at 1:49 PM.
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  #132  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:39 PM
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In short China has been publicly declaring its population is lower than thought, not higher than thought.
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  #133  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:50 PM
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The U.S. and EU will almost certainly both be more populous than China at the end of the century. China has hidden their demographic time-bomb. They had insanely high birthrates a generation ago, and now their birthrates are likely lower than South Korea.

China's one child policy wasn't implemented until 1978, and wasn't enforced until the 1980's. So it basically covered a generation. Prior to the 1980's, China had Africa-style birthrates of 6 children, so it will be a very different population distribution than the no-growth Eastern Bloc countries, which have had low birthrates since WW2.

And the most important factor is that China cannot grow via inmigration. U.S., EU, Canada and Australia can determine their ideal population via inmigration.
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  #134  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 2:49 PM
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From my own travels, Tokyo and environs is still the biggest area that truly feels like a single urban area. Shanghai and environs is coming close. I can't speak to the Pearl River Delta, as I missed my chance to visit a couple of years ago (future trips to China are indefinitely postponed until the government stops detaining Canadians without cause).
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  #135  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 4:28 PM
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Originally Posted by kittyhawk28 View Post
In my books at least, while the Pearl River Delta is the world's biggest contiguous urban area, I don't think it quite surpasses Tokyo as the world's largest metropolitan area yet. Tokyo and its various sub-cities such as Saitama and Yokohama are very well-integrated economically by a dense network of urban rail lines, which underpin the strong commuting patterns across the cities in the region.

(...)
I also see two metro areas there: Guangzhou-Foshan (28,175,468 inh., in 11,382 km²) and Shenzhen (17,494,398 inh., in 1,992 km²). And the massive suburb of Dongguan (10,466,625 inh., in 2,465 km²), split in half between the two.

And up north, Shanghai-Suzhou: 37,619,157 inh., in 12,435 km².
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