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  #21  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 3:42 AM
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Winnipeg's CMA has very nearly double Halifax CMA's population. You can't count on thousands of people driving from Fredericton, Sydney and Moncton for all regular season games.
This is pretty misleading. According to Google Maps, it takes 28 minutes to drive from City Hall to the northern edge of the Halifax CMA on the 101. The regional market for a team in Halifax is a bit over 600,000; this is the CMA plus people who would travel 30-60 minutes, not people in Fredericton. This total is about 2/3 the size of Winnipeg.

If you say that the people who have to drive 1-2 hours are worth, say, 5%, you might be looking at the 75% market. People in Halifax earn a bit more money on average too (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm).

To be honest I don't care about the NHL really, but I just don't think it's true that Halifax should be considered beyond the pale (particularly over a longer term time frame) when Winnipeg has a team and Quebec City might get one (and actually there was talk of bringing a team to Kitchener-Waterloo). In fact unless the NHL shifts away from the smaller cities and some of those teams fold again we will probably see this as a local issue in the future, particularly when Metro Centre upgrades are considered.

As an aside, it's important to understand that the CMA substantially understates the size of Halifax as a metropolitan and commuter region. In the closer parts of Hants and Colchester, 30%+ of people work in the Halifax CMA. Towns like Lunenburg, Windsor, and Wolfville are considered "moderately influenced" by the Halifax metro area, which means that 5-30% of their workers actually work in Halifax. This phenomenon does not necessarily exist in all other metropolitan areas to the same degree, because some CMAs, like Winnipeg or St. John's, have less population nearby, and in others like Hamilton people might actually work in another CMA like Toronto.
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  #22  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 4:21 AM
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We don't want that garbage. CHL has elite players, AHL = leftovers. No offense to St. John's but the CHL is far more exciting than the AHL.

I've been to Halifax Citadel's and Nova Scotia Oiler's games. The Mooseheads are far more exciting.
Yet attendance for the Mooseheads has not been strong.
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  #23  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 11:04 AM
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Yet attendance for the Mooseheads has not been strong.
The Mooseheads have been in the league since 1994. We have been number one in attendance in the Q league except for recent years that Quebec has become popular with a good team. The Mooseheads previous seasons (except for last year) we were the worst team in the standings and we were still were number two in the Q league for attendance.

The playoffs this year have had big sellouts of 11,000. The Halifax - Quebec Series broke the all-time attendance record for a series in the Q league.

The Mooseheads are one of the most profitable teams in the CHL.

The Halifax Citadels had poor attendance due to a crappy product.
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  #24  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 11:44 AM
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That's not really a huge accoplishment considering Halifax and QC's arenas are far larger than any other in the Q. Ditto for setting an attendance record when the two largest arenas in the league play in a full seven-game series. When every other team is playing in a 2-3k seat rink it's a bit of an empty claim.

Both the AHL and the CHL are fundamentally used as development leagues. I don't really get how one is 'elite' by virtue of its players happening to be a bit younger and less experienced.
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  #25  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 12:09 PM
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This is pretty misleading. According to Google Maps, it takes 28 minutes to drive from City Hall to the northern edge of the Halifax CMA on the 101. The regional market for a team in Halifax is a bit over 600,000; this is the CMA plus people who would travel 30-60 minutes, not people in Fredericton. This total is about 2/3 the size of Winnipeg.

If you say that the people who have to drive 1-2 hours are worth, say, 5%, you might be looking at the 75% market. People in Halifax earn a bit more money on average too (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm).
.
It is not misleading to compare CMA to CMA. If you want to compare 1-2 hour drives, your basically getting almost to Moncton, and to Antigonish, to Berwick, to Shelburne, maybe, what, 650,000 people? 750,000? Less than the Winnipeg CMA, still.

If you do the same thing in Winnipeg, looked at everyone within a 1-2 hour drive you end up with the same results for them... probably 1 million. Most of Manitoba lives in the south. You end up with far more people there then here, before you even get in to comparing average incomes (family, individual) and per capita GDP and such. AND without comparing ages... a lot of OLD people in rural Nova Scotia, we have an aging population out there, are they going to saddle up and drive 2 hours to get to a game in Halifax? Some will, most won't.

NHL average ticket - $51.00. Fan Price Index $300. Average season tickets ice $8,058.80 nosebleeds $946.02. That is a lot.

I don't think it is hating on Halifax to think this is a bit beyond....
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  #26  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CorbeauNoir View Post
That's not really a huge accoplishment considering Halifax and QC's arenas are far larger than any other in the Q. Ditto for setting an attendance record when the two largest arenas in the league play in a full seven-game series. When every other team is playing in a 2-3k seat rink it's a bit of an empty claim.

Both the AHL and the CHL are fundamentally used as development leagues. I don't really get how one is 'elite' by virtue of its players happening to be a bit younger and less experienced.
You won't see Crosby in the AHL but you did see him in the CHL. Crosby = Elite.

CHL is an equivalent to the College football program in the States. AHL is like the CFL.

And as for the NHL, remember it's not suggested that Halifax get an NHL team tomorrow. It's probably 15 to 30 years away. Halifax will look a lot different then. There should be a lot less negativity in Halifax by then as well.

Last edited by q12; Jun 24, 2012 at 1:01 PM.
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  #27  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 1:11 PM
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The Mooseheads have been in the league since 1994. We have been number one in attendance in the Q league except for recent years that Quebec has become popular with a good team. The Mooseheads previous seasons (except for last year) we were the worst team in the standings and we were still were number two in the Q league for attendance.

The playoffs this year have had big sellouts of 11,000. The Halifax - Quebec Series broke the all-time attendance record for a series in the Q league.

The Mooseheads are one of the most profitable teams in the CHL.

The Halifax Citadels had poor attendance due to a crappy product.
They're still not selling out for non playoff games.
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  #28  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 1:37 PM
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They're still not selling out for non playoff games.
That may happen this year with the team they are building.

I don't see what your point is though. Quebec City doesn't sell out regular season games, but is on the verge of getting a NHL team that will probably be sold out for every game. The Manitoba Moose didn't sell out every game yet they do for the Winnipeg Jets.

Just because the Ice Caps sold out this season doesn't mean the AHL is an exciting product. You've had several years of no hockey, with a booming economy that was desperate to watch something and spend their money. Mile one stadium is tiny, only the size of the Halifax forum, not hard to sell-out. The St. John's Maple Leafs had far from fantastic attendance. http://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendan...h.php?tmi=8181
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  #29  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 2:12 PM
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That may happen this year with the team they are building.

I don't see what your point is though. Quebec City doesn't sell out regular season games, but is on the verge of getting a NHL team that will probably be sold out for every game. The Manitoba Moose didn't sell out every game yet they do for the Winnipeg Jets.

Just because the Ice Caps sold out this season doesn't mean the AHL is an exciting product. You've had several years of no hockey, with a booming economy that was desperate to watch something and spend their money. Mile one stadium is tiny, only the size of the Halifax forum, not hard to sell-out. The St. John's Maple Leafs had far from fantastic attendance. http://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendan...h.php?tmi=8181
More people have been going to the IceCaps than to the Mooseheads despite the supposedly better game. I just find it a bit odd if the hockey is so great why people aren't attending.
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  #30  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 2:18 PM
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More people have been going to the IceCaps than to the Mooseheads despite the supposedly better game. I just find it a bit odd if the hockey is so great why people aren't attending.
What? We had average attendance of 6608 this year. Ice Caps had 6297.

http://metronews.ca/voices/the-q-fil...on-the-way-up/

The very nature of junior hockey is cyclical. When your team is the worst in the league for a couple years attendance is bound to suffer.

The Metro Centre also had Sky Boxes added that ruined the view for the top half of the upper bowl. So you really have to want see the game if your willing to pay to sit in the nosebleeds at the Metro Centre. If Halifax built a new bigger arena, attendance would defiantly go up. Just ask MonctonRad, if Moncton builds a new arena attendance is sure to rise for the wildcats. St. John's should have built a bigger arena.

Last edited by q12; Jun 24, 2012 at 3:01 PM.
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  #31  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 3:18 PM
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You won't see Crosby in the AHL but you did see him in the CHL. Crosby = Elite.
So what? Most of the Red Wings' elite players have spent YEARS in the AHL before graduating into the NHL. It's for that exact reason that their elite players can play into Detroit's puck-possession, two-way system of hockey as well as they do when they make it to the bigs.

You can't point to generational-level talent as a case study for an entire league, that's absurd. Not every player is going to peak the moment they're drafted.

Last edited by CorbeauNoir; Jun 24, 2012 at 3:32 PM.
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  #32  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 3:40 PM
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So what? Most of the Red Wings' elite players have spent YEARS in the AHL before graduating into the NHL. It's for that exact reason that their elite players can play such a tight two-way game when they make it to the bigs.

You can't point to generational-level talent as a case study for an entire league, that's absurd. Not every player is going to peak the moment they're drafted.
I won't argue with you about that.

I've lived in Halifax all my life. I've seen both AHL and CHL play here. The CHL is far more entertaining with younger players giving everything for the chance to be drafted into the NHL.

If you want to watch the AHL go ahead. I think most Canadians agree the CHL is a more entertaining product. In a country that loves its Hockey it's no wonder cities like Halifax, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Quebec City, London, Kitchener, Windsor, Kelowna, Saskatoon, Regina, Victoria, Moncton, Saint John etc. have embraced it over the AHL.

There is a reason there is only four AHL teams in Canada. Canadians know it sucks, and Americans are not hockey smart enough to realize it sucks. That's just my opinion, you’re entitled to yours.
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  #33  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 4:19 PM
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It is not misleading to compare CMA to CMA. If you want to compare 1-2 hour drives, your basically getting almost to Moncton, and to Antigonish, to Berwick, to Shelburne, maybe, what, 650,000 people? 750,000? Less than the Winnipeg CMA, still.

If you do the same thing in Winnipeg, looked at everyone within a 1-2 hour drive you end up with the same results for them... probably 1 million. Most of Manitoba lives in the south. You end up with far more people there then here, before you even get in to comparing average incomes (family, individual) and per capita GDP and such. AND without comparing ages... a lot of OLD people in rural Nova Scotia, we have an aging population out there, are they going to saddle up and drive 2 hours to get to a game in Halifax? Some will, most won't.

NHL average ticket - $51.00. Fan Price Index $300. Average season tickets ice $8,058.80 nosebleeds $946.02. That is a lot.

I don't think it is hating on Halifax to think this is a bit beyond....
I agree.

I'd personally love to see the NHL in Halifax

But it is not realistic. At least with cities like Winnipeg and Quebec City, never mind that they are about twice the size of Halifax, they have real/prospective owners in TNSE and PKP of Quebecor.

Who would be the owner of a ~150 million dollar franchise in Halifax?

They have/will have modern NHL ready arenas, in le nouveux colisée and MTS Centre. The current Pepsi colisée is old and severely outdated even with its current upgrades. It is only a placeholder for their $400 million dollar arena project scheduled to be completed by summer/fall 2015.

What is the news with building a new arena in Halifax? It only holds somewhere south of 11k seats (for hockey) iirc. Plus its fairly outdated.

And what of the corporate support? Quebec City is fairly self contained, being as it is a government city (second only to Ottawa) and there is a huge focus on the french market there (self containing business environment) notwithstanding many Montreal based corporations would be willing to support business revenues in Quebec city especially the dozens that are left out during Habs games.

Winnipeg is the only major city in Manitoba with all the government and provincial business focus, and it has more head offices of major corporations than either Edmonton or Ottawa, a history of an organization that has honed its skills with an AHL franchise, in partnership with the richest man in Canada, built a new arena in the city, built a decade plus of good relationship with the NHL, did their homework for several years following smaller market business models in Edmonton and Nashville, and still Winnipeg was heavily criticized about owning an NHL team. It's current success (by which I mean it is a profitable NHL franchise) has to do simply with the fact that ticket prices are high, people are willing to shed out money, its exceptionally hard to get a ticket to see a game, everything is privately owned by TNSE, and the entire business model is set up so that even in the worst of times losses could be offset.

Quebec City has also been in contact with Winnipeg and Edmonton regarding their business models and arena plans, and I think even Ottawa.

How many registered small business are there in Halifax?
Halifax and Dartmouth together show a rough result of about 11.3k businesses (http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...a/Nova+Scotia/) a decent gauge of people who would be buying box seats or club seats or a general gauge of business strength in the city.

Versus Quebec City (>19k) http://www.manta.com/world/North+America/Canada/Quebec/

Winnipeg (>25k)
http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...nada/Manitoba/

Ottawa (>26k)
http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...anada/Ontario/

Edmonton (>34k)
http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...anada/Alberta/

And note I counted Dartmouth with Halifax. These are just urban businesses. If we took businesses nearby these other cities, they too would be higher in some cases (Winnipeg + Selkirk, Steinbach, Stonewall, Roblin), much higher in others (Edmonton + Fort Sask, Leduc, St Albert). Again, this is all disregarding that Halifax is much smaller than Quebec City or Winnipeg. Halifax itself has ~6.7k registered businesses. Halifax's small business market (including Dartmouth) is about the same size as Regina and Saskatoon. Though, in fairness to Halifax, the entire area in Nova Scotia is very spread out and there are multiple small businesses around the region. Nevermind that the Halifax CMA region has many more small businesses than Regina or Saskatoon, Halifax is the Atlantic Centre of big Canadian businesses in the country, and there are many head offices there. Halifax is an important transportation and shipping centre, moreso than either Regina or Saskatoon.


My point is not to be negative regarding Halifax's chances (as I said I would love to see the NHL there and I truly mean that) but to be realistic. Setting up false expectations and hopes are never good. At least those vying for a team in Quebec City have realistic grounds for that; there could be a functional franchise in that city. Halifax, I don't think so. That list is simply a "wish list" for Canadians, and if i was voting, I would vote for Quebec City and Halifax myself.

Halifax has struggle attracting the CFL which is much cheaper to function; how could it realistically attract the NHL?

Last edited by roccerfeller; Jun 24, 2012 at 4:30 PM.
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  #34  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2012, 4:34 PM
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how could it realistically attract the NHL?
Good points.

It's not realistic today; we would need a new arena and a larger population with more businesses.

Some of us are thinking in 15 to 30 years from now it might be more realistic. We'll just have to wait and see.

No one is expecting Halifax to get a team tomorrow.
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  #35  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2012, 9:09 PM
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Good points.

It's not realistic today; we would need a new arena and a larger population with more businesses.

Some of us are thinking in 15 to 30 years from now it might be more realistic. We'll just have to wait and see.

No one is expecting Halifax to get a team tomorrow.
I would agree with that. I can see 15-30 years as realistic, depending on growth trajectories and how well such growth is sustained there.

That said, it starts with a potential owner though.

For instance, Winnipeg and Quebec City were always capable of having teams. At the time the Jets 1.0 and Nordiques relocated, the main issues were independent of market support, specifically, and more interwoven with ownership issues (no one was able to afford to own either franchise, or no new owner was interested in owning a team in either market), which extended to issues with the arenas. Edmonton was about the same size as Winnipeg & Quebec City in the mid 90's, for example, and were minutes aware from moving to Houston, but an ownership group came together at the last minute and saved the franchise.

For Halifax corporate business/sponsorships and population are only one side of the coin; the other side is all how the team-based business would be run, and that starts with a viable owner and a viable arena; so even if in 30 years Halifax has the larger population and enough businesses to sustain a franchise, will it have an NHL-level arena and a willing owner? That is the important part.

My personal hesitation with an arena would be Halifax's (numerous city councils) lack of vision where 30 years ago to today the issue of even a CFL football stadium has not changed. I'm sure most citizens would agree with that side of the coin. That said, I do not live there so I cannot say I am more in tune with those going-ons than any of you guys, but I would assume that majority of you guys would wish there would be both a new arena and a new stadium
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  #36  
Old Posted Jun 25, 2012, 11:18 PM
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My personal hesitation with an arena would be Halifax's (numerous city councils) lack of vision where 30 years ago to today the issue of even a CFL football stadium has not changed. I'm sure most citizens would agree with that side of the coin. That said, I do not live there so I cannot say I am more in tune with those going-ons than any of you guys, but I would assume that majority of you guys would wish there would be both a new arena and a new stadium
It is very difficult to predict how stuff like this will go when you look at a time frame of more than 5 years or so. The Commonwealth Games bid from a few years ago could easily have resulted in a new stadium, for example. Some other projects like Harbour Solutions (sewage plants) or the central library seemed like they'd never be built, until one day they were. The current Metro Centre, built in the 1970's, was probably about the same relative expense for Halifax that an arena on the scale of Winnipeg's would be today.

HRM is actually a pretty big municipality with a lot of financial resources at its disposal. I don't think this is at all wise, but HRM council could finance a $60M stadium next week if they wanted to.

It's a particularly interesting time right now because Halifax is going to have a very different city council in a few months. The shipbuilding contract should also have a positive impact on the local economy.
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  #37  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2012, 12:26 AM
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It is very difficult to predict how stuff like this will go when you look at a time frame of more than 5 years or so. The Commonwealth Games bid from a few years ago could easily have resulted in a new stadium, for example. Some other projects like Harbour Solutions (sewage plants) or the central library seemed like they'd never be built, until one day they were. The current Metro Centre, built in the 1970's, was probably about the same relative expense for Halifax that an arena on the scale of Winnipeg's would be today.

HRM is actually a pretty big municipality with a lot of financial resources at its disposal. I don't think this is at all wise, but HRM council could finance a $60M stadium next week if they wanted to.

It's a particularly interesting time right now because Halifax is going to have a very different city council in a few months. The shipbuilding contract should also have a positive impact on the local economy.
This is good to hear, because I was following (in and out) the Stadium updates in Halifax. I am a huge proponent of CFL expansion to Atlantic Canada and, for multiple reasons, feel that Halifax would be the best choice overall for a franchise.

In the near future, a CFL franchise is very much possible given a concrete stadium plan. Ownership could be public. It would also give a proper "big league" team for Halifax to have. Though, is $60MM feasible for a CFL-build stadium? I know this is the "NHL in Halifax" thread so I mean not to derail or anything, but current CFL stadiums are getting into the $200MM range.

Are we looking at simply seats + field for $60MM?

The relevance here is as it related to a potential NHL-level arena in Ottawa. Bear in mind, the arena going up in Quebec City will be about $400MM, and the MTS Centre, though cost roughly $133MM to build, is about $175MM today with inflation. That does not take into consideration that the $133MM figure is based on construction costs, which were set in 2003 but the following year doubled (so if the same arena was built today in Winnipeg it would cost around $265MM)
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  #38  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2012, 12:49 AM
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I thought they scaled back the Quebec City proposal from $400M. To me, that never sounded like a fiscally prudent plan, and I would not want Halifax to engage in similar NHL hysteria. I mentioned the $60M number because that would have been a starting point for the women's FIFA stadium. It would not have been built to CFL standards but it would have been a step in the right direction. It looks now like SMU's stadium will be getting upgrades instead, so perhaps that will become a 15,000 or so seat venue that can be improved down the road.

An NHL team is more expensive to run than a CFL team but right now I think it would be easier to build an MTS Centre-level arena than it would be to build a $200M CFL-level stadium. A new arena could be used immediately by a couple of pro sports teams (hockey and I guess basketball) and year-round events. A stadium is mostly only good for university football and seasonal events right now.

I think Halifax is the best potential Atlantic market for CFL too, but even if the hype about Moncton is true it's not a reason to rush into building an expensive venue for a team that does not exist. Halifax needs to develop its own facilities in a way that makes economic sense based on its own needs and finances.
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  #39  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2012, 4:01 AM
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I thought they scaled back the Quebec City proposal from $400M. To me, that never sounded like a fiscally prudent plan, and I would not want Halifax to engage in similar NHL hysteria. I mentioned the $60M number because that would have been a starting point for the women's FIFA stadium. It would not have been built to CFL standards but it would have been a step in the right direction. It looks now like SMU's stadium will be getting upgrades instead, so perhaps that will become a 15,000 or so seat venue that can be improved down the road.

An NHL team is more expensive to run than a CFL team but right now I think it would be easier to build an MTS Centre-level arena than it would be to build a $200M CFL-level stadium. A new arena could be used immediately by a couple of pro sports teams (hockey and I guess basketball) and year-round events. A stadium is mostly only good for university football and seasonal events right now.

I think Halifax is the best potential Atlantic market for CFL too, but even if the hype about Moncton is true it's not a reason to rush into building an expensive venue for a team that does not exist. Halifax needs to develop its own facilities in a way that makes economic sense based on its own needs and finances.
Well said, and might I add, quite sensible. I too agree that an arena would be a better bit in that sense. A CFL-size stadium would be better built if there was reassurance that a tenant would come with it, but given that regular concerts would service the area more than a stadium, an arena would be more beneficial overall. Considering you're closer to the pulse of Halifax, you would understand this more and I'll take your word for it. I still would selfishly like to see the CFL in Atlantic Canada sooner than later though

For the record, yes $400MM is the cap for the Quebec City arena. They are going to try to keep it south of that number, but the funding is signed, sealed and in place to cover that number. Actual construction is slated to begin September 2012, with a tentative release date for September 2015, and right now they are just preparing the final documents and setting everything up for a timely ground breaking ceremony in September. The reason it will be $400MM though is because it comes with a slew of additional developments (think Ottawa), will be exceptionally state of the art (modelled after Consol Energy Centre in Pittsburgh), and the mayor feels the need to go all out. There are people in Quebec City who feel they could do with a smaller, cheaper arena akin to the MTS Centre minus the additional fluff, but this is ultimately the direction they've chosen.

To add credence to your point of view, Quebec City was also courting the CFL, however turned their attention to a new arena. Disregarding the potential to house an NHL team, the arena would be "better for the community overall" versus a football stadium solely intended for CFL use. So the political powers that be in Quebec City would agree with you there
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  #40  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2012, 3:16 PM
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Vl@dy Vl@dy is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Kroton
Posts: 42
I know, this is the NHL's post, i'm sorry, but :
Is there a soccer team in Halifax?
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