It's strange because I don't even think we disagree on this fundamentally. We both agree sovereignty has diminished in importance. We're just disagreeing on how to frame that because we differ on where it's going to go in the future. I don't foresee anything which will lead to a resurgence, so I can only see it continuing to decrease in relevancy. I say we come back in twenty years and see who is right, cause I think that's the only way this will be resolved.
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Originally Posted by lio45
That's pretty huge, actually, when you think about it. 20% of the very youngest cohort out there (kids, essentially; actual teenagers in some cases) is openly sovereigntist. And you can be sure there are some more that are on the fence, and could change their mind if any issue with the Feds turns into something major.
If you learned that, say, 20% of the youngest Californians, and an even larger share of adult Californians, support secession from the United States, you'd say 'meh, pipe dream, going nowhere, can be ignored'? I'd be like OMG, that's MAJOR!
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You'd say "OMG, that's MAJOR!" since such an example lacks all the contextual factors necessary to talk about Quebec. Twenty percent is a sizeable amount, but remember: it still represents a
major drop from previous levels of support for sovereignty and is definitely a drop from support shown in older groups (I don't have direct stats in front of me). The trends show support has been falling; find me an example that says otherwise.
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Originally Posted by lio45
I don't know what kind of standard you're using but even though it's somewhat weaker than it's been, that's definitely a very active and potentially successful sovereignty movement. Beyond those who answer these polls with a resounding 'yes', there are tons of people who don't (and therefore won't show up in your numbers) yet would change their mind if the current setup started to be problematic.
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Applying this logic, there are tons of people who voted for Quebec solidaire because they support socialist principles rather than sovereignty, who would not have otherwise if sovereignty was the top issue of the election.
The sovereignty movement can be both active and diminishing/dying/verb which signifies some type of decrease. The facts demonstrate that it is dropping in terms of support to the point where it wasn't an active debate during the provincial election for the first time in fifty years. It's a shadow of what it used to be. The speculation of "will it happen or not" is no longer there, which is my entire original point. Sorry if you disagree with my usage of the term dying but it does not refute my point.
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Originally Posted by lio45
Out of curiosity - do you also think sovereignty is completely dead and buried for Scotland?
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I don't really think sovereignty is dead and buried in Quebec. It's more in the hospital at this point. Nevertheless, Scotland is a good example of a scenario where Quebec sovereignty could become a relevant cause again (independence still polls at 40+ per cent regularly there, so I think it's a much more relevant issue there than Quebec's is here). However, I have faith that Canada isn't going to make a Brexit-level mistake in their future. We do substantially better at addressing Quebec's needs and I think it is unlikely tempers are going to flair up again the way they did in the 90s.
I fully admit my analysis is based upon that assumption, but I think it's a fair one to have. Yes,
Speculative Event #3 could happen and sovereignty could come roaring back, but
Speculative Event #1 could also happen and suddenly Alberta is gone.
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Originally Posted by lio45
And I'm sorry to be this blunt but you have no clue if you genuinely think the PLQ and CAQ are both the same type of federalist party. I honestly mean you're at a level of cluelessness that is actually likely to mean these discussions are a total waste of time.
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Ah, so you agree that they are both federalist parties in the end.
I don't recall saying they were the same type of federalist party, because of course they aren't. Their similarities end at their desire to keep Quebec in Canada. Like, I don't expect to see the CAQ attempting to get the province to sign the Constitution anytime soon or anything. Nevertheless, they both have expressed opposition to sovereignty, so they're still both federalist parties at their core.