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  #1821  
Old Posted Mar 5, 2017, 11:39 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
I think long term Bernier gives the Tories a better chance at beating Trudeau. He would make the Conservatives much more competitive in Quebec, With the mess the Ontario Liberals are creating he has very fertile ground in Ontario. In the West Trudeau's popularity seems to have peaked and is slowly going back down to traditional Liberal levels of support.
Strategically, I think it's obvious that Bernier is their best choice. However, that doesn't mean too much, as the next leader won't be chosen by only a small committee whose only criteria is trying to win the '19 election.
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  #1822  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 1:57 AM
Phil McAvity Phil McAvity is offline
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
If you combine the candidates into wings of the party (brackets after weeding the two fringe candidates and undecideds out), here's what you get:

Compromise: 14.05% (15.90%)

Libertarian: 17.54% (19.85%)

Nationalist: 22.14% (25.06%)

Red Tory: 6.96% (7.84%)

So-Con: 4.10% (4.64%)

O'Leary (unclassifiable): 22.01% (24.91%)

Fringe/undecided: 13.19%

Mr. Wonderful is anything but "unclassifiable", he's almost a textbook libertarian.
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  #1823  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 4:59 AM
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Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
I think long term Bernier gives the Tories a better chance at beating Trudeau. He would make the Conservatives much more competitive in Quebec, With the mess the Ontario Liberals are creating he has very fertile ground in Ontario. In the West Trudeau's popularity seems to have peaked and is slowly going back down to traditional Liberal levels of support.
Bernier is very unpopular in Quebec as a whole. He's no 1984 Brian Mulroney. But he's extremely popular in his region and somewhat popular beyond which reaches North to the Quebec City region and both Westward and Eastward by maybe 100-200 Kms. He certainly could help the CPC to pick up more nearby seats but that's about it. The only advantage that Bernier has in most of Quebec is being francophone.

I can't really see Ontarians liking him either. Maybe in certain rural Southern areas but not in the major and even smaller cities.

I do have to add that Bernier is a pretty classy guy even if you aren't fond of him. I don't think he's be an embarrassment like Trump but he is quite extreme when it comes to economics.
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  #1824  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 9:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Bernier is very unpopular in Quebec as a whole. He's no 1984 Brian Mulroney. But he's extremely popular in his region and somewhat popular beyond which reaches North to the Quebec City region and both Westward and Eastward by maybe 100-200 Kms. He certainly could help the CPC to pick up more nearby seats but that's about it. The only advantage that Bernier has in most of Quebec is being francophone.

I can't really see Ontarians liking him either. Maybe in certain rural Southern areas but not in the major and even smaller cities.

I do have to add that Bernier is a pretty classy guy even if you aren't fond of him. I don't think he's be an embarrassment like Trump but he is quite extreme when it comes to economics.
He's about the exact opposite from Trump on economics as well...the closest US parallel would be Rand Paul.
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  #1825  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2017, 9:47 PM
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Even though Bernier appears to be popular, I just cannot take the guy seriously the same way I do many of the others.
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  #1826  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2017, 2:26 PM
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Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
I think long term Bernier gives the Tories a better chance at beating Trudeau. He would make the Conservatives much more competitive in Quebec, With the mess the Ontario Liberals are creating he has very fertile ground in Ontario. In the West Trudeau's popularity seems to have peaked and is slowly going back down to traditional Liberal levels of support.
Would Quebeckers put aside their ideological views and vote for someone just because they're from the province?
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  #1827  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2017, 4:21 AM
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Would Quebeckers put aside their ideological views and vote for someone just because they're from the province?
Some Quebeckers would. More would if Bernier picked the right things to focus on. Bernier would do much better if he hadn't been part of the Harper government.
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  #1828  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2017, 6:23 PM
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Some Quebeckers would. More would if Bernier picked the right things to focus on. Bernier would do much better if he hadn't been part of the Harper government.
His leadership campaign thus far has focused heavily on ending supply management, getting rid of federal health transfers and major reforms to equalization payments. Policies that some have said would not be popular in Quebec. He'll likely continue to focus on those issues if he became leader.
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  #1829  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2017, 3:14 AM
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His leadership campaign thus far has focused heavily on ending supply management, getting rid of federal health transfers and major reforms to equalization payments. Policies that some have said would not be popular in Quebec. He'll likely continue to focus on those issues if he became leader.
Those policies wouldn't be popular with the majority of Quebeckers. But they would with some. It really depends on where the support is concentrated.
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  #1830  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2017, 4:47 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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Excellent analysis here, and each candidate has pros and cons.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gren...mar9-1.4013601

The establishment overwhelmingly favours Scheer and O'Toole, while the grassroots favour O'Leary, followed by Bernier and Leitch.
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  #1831  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2017, 11:10 PM
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If it came down to those three, I'd seriously have to go with O'Leary......
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  #1832  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2017, 1:19 AM
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I'd probably prefer Bernier as leader. I don't really want him as PM, but having him around as opposition leader could be a welcome trigger to have an adult conversation in this country about outdated economic policies like supply management.

As for who I'd want as PM.. not a single candidate in the CPC race is PM material, IMO. All of the best of the CPC are sitting it out and waiting for 2023 instead.
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  #1833  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2017, 3:10 PM
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Interesting figures from CBC on the Tory leadership race:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gren...mar9-1.4013601
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  #1834  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2017, 2:32 PM
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"Widespread vote-rigging" - will O'Leary's allegations stand up, or is he having a Trump moment, I wonder?
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  #1835  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2017, 2:38 PM
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"Widespread vote-rigging" - will O'Leary's allegations stand up, or is he having a Trump moment, I wonder?
We can expect more of that as we go along. It goes with that type of persona, so it seems.
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  #1836  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2017, 2:43 PM
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We can expect more of that as we go along. It goes with that type of persona, so it seems.
So, a figment of his populist imagination, do you think? I find that the initial media reports don't make clear how the allegedly fraudulent memberships were supposed to translate into leadership votes, if people didn't even know they had become members. The implication that someone was setting things up to cast large numbers of fraudulent votes seems quite a stretch
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  #1837  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2017, 11:09 PM
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O'Leary was right! Almost 1400 memberships were deemed to be purchased from two IP addresses using prepaid credit cards.
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  #1838  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2017, 11:29 PM
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O'Leary was right! Almost 1400 memberships were deemed to be purchased from two IP addresses using prepaid credit cards.
The real question is... whose campaign organized this?
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  #1839  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2017, 1:07 AM
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It's supposedly the Bernier campaign, no? I'm wondering what the fallout will be - I can't see Bernier being obliged to pull out of the campaign, but somebody needs to be sanctioned. It's still unclear how/whether these memberships were somehow to be used to cast fake leadership ballots = that doesn't seem feasible.

Last edited by kwoldtimer; Mar 18, 2017 at 1:27 AM.
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  #1840  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2017, 3:54 PM
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So Lisa Raitt is calling for the Party to expel any leadership candidate found to have violated membership rules. This, as Bernier's campaign accuses O'Leary's Sikh community organizer of offering to pay for other people's memberships (the accusation has been denied).

So far, this issue seems to have had surprisingly little resonace, with the Party itself seemingly thinking that the matter has been addressed by cancelling the improper memberships. Where's the accountability?

What am I missing? This seems like a serious matter to me but I'm beginnig to think that I just don't get it. What the heck is going on?
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