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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 12:33 AM
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2012 vs 1984: Young adults really do have it harder today

An interesting article from Rob Carrick in today's Globe and Mail.

2012 vs 1984: Young adults really do have it harder today

Click here to read.

I thought I would post this article because we seem to have a good blend of Gen Y, X, and even a couple of old boomers on this board.



I'm turning 30 in July, have two university degrees (Computer Science and Business Admin), was unemployed for about a year after leaving school, and am now struggling to pay $260,000 on a dilapidated fixer upper that cost my grandfather $4,600 in 1953 on a meat cutters salary.

Wages at least in my part of the country (Manitoba) haven't changed at all since the 90's.



The way I see it, when i'm old enough to retire in 2049 people will be looking at me as a source of food; nevermind CPP.


What has your experience been like?
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 12:46 AM
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I've had to take care of a disabled parent since I was 16 with very little help from family or the government. When my mom was my age, she had been on her own for a decade and was just about to give birth to my younger brother. My dad at 23 was going between jobs, he wouldn't get a permanent full time job until he was 27. I've had one for a year now. I got it mostly through a lot of help from some good people, though. I have been pretty lucky so far but I certainly wouldn't say life is "good".

I don't have much hope that I will ever be eligible the receive CPP. By the time I am in my 40s or whatever the cut off for the change is, I'm sure the age will be into the 70s, and I'll probably be dead by then. I'll probably never own my own home but I don't have any real desire to.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 12:52 AM
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Just the part on housing prices alone is enough fodder for talk..

From the article:


Region

Average Price 1984

Price Today If Homes Had Risen by the Inflation Rate Since 1984

Actual Average Price Today



Canada

$76,214 - Average home price in 1984

$154,587 - What it would be today if adjusted for inflation

$369,677 - Average home price in 2012



Vancouver

$116,444 - Average home price in 1984

$236,187 - What it would be today if adjusted for inflation

$761,742 - Average home price in 2012



Calgary

$94,154 - Average home price in 1984

$190,976 - What it would be today if adjusted for inflation

$409,750 - Average home price in 2012



Toronto

$96,078 - Average home price in 1984

$194,878 - What it would be today if adjusted for inflation

$504,117 -Average home price in 2012



Montreal

$66,116 - Average home price in 1984

$134,105 - What it would be today if adjusted for inflation

$318,400 - Average home price in 2012



Halifax-Dartmouth

$71,950 - Average home price in 1984

$145,939 - What it would be today if adjusted for inflation

$272,599 - Average home price in 2012
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 12:57 AM
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Quite an interesting article.

I'm finishing up my Bachelor of Commerce (in accounting) at Concordia, and should graduate by the end of the year. Apparently this is what the job outlook was like for Concordia business grads last year: http://johnmolson.concordia.ca/en/ca...ults-june-2011

I'm aiming to go for the Certified Management Accountant (CMA) designation, which should improve my employment prospects. Becoming a Chartered Accountant is too tedious (not to mention the fact that I really don't want to work for an auditing firm).

--

My parents' house cost $78,000 when they acquired it in 1983. A real estate agent told them recently that it's worth close to $450,000. I personally doubt it's worth that much, but it is worth at least $375,000, which is quite a nice return nonetheless.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 12:58 AM
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It is funny how whenever this is brought up you tend to hear the "uphill both ways in the snow" stories about people living in World War II or the Great Depression. It was no doubt harder back then, but there have been a couple of generations in between. It is nice to see some of the differences presented clearly in an article like this.

Many of the statistics are actually pretty misleading and in many cases are worse than they seem. For example, wage statistics are for people who worked full time. They don't capture earnings that are lost because somebody went to school full time, and a lot of the sort of people who did not need even an undergraduate degree in the past are finding themselves in university today. If you spend 4 years paying for school and then 36 years working for $50,000 you are a lot worse off financially than if you just worked for $50,000 for 40 years, but in both cases your contribution to the average wage statistic would be the same.

Unemployment rates don't mean much because they only indicate how many people are looking for work. To have a clear picture of today and 1984 you'd also need to look at participation rates.

Some other things are really hard to account for because the world has simply changed over the past few decades. What's the value of internet access? Not many people had that in 1984, let alone 1954. Some technological improvements shrink parts of the economy and make us look worse off even though they actually improve our quality of life.

I broke even with my undergrad but that was only because I chose to stay home instead of going out of province and because of scholarships. Part time work and co-op work terms made up the difference and covered tuition, books, and part of my cost of living. My last term at Dalhousie was around $3,000 for four courses.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 2:22 AM
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Both interest and unemployment rates were in the double digits back in 1984. If you look at the total cost of carrying a mortgage, price increases are probably still above inflation but nowhere near as bad as presented. The real steals on housing were in the mid 90s coming of a recession with moderate interest rates and barely any price increases in a decade.

How much of the increase in student debt is related to tuition and how much is related to the fact that most students in recent years take 5 years to complete a degree and seem to think that does not make them laggards? Plus, how much of the debt is related to lifestyle? I laughed out loud after watching an interview with one of those ridiculous Quebec protestors whose suit must have cost a year's tuition (although in other provinces it would only be half a year's tuition).
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 2:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug View Post
Both interest and unemployment rates were in the double digits back in 1984. If you look at the total cost of carrying a mortgage, price increases are probably still above inflation but nowhere near as bad as presented. The real steals on housing were in the mid 90s coming of a recession with moderate interest rates and barely any price increases in a decade.
Interests rates make a big difference if you have a mortgage, but back then it was also much easier to save up cash for a house (both because of the low housing costs and because of the high interest rates). Today in an expensive market it's really hard to buy that way.

Quote:
How much of the increase in student debt is related to tuition and how much is related to the fact that most students in recent years take 5 years to complete a degree and seem to think that does not make them laggards? Plus, how much of the debt is related to lifestyle?
I don't know, but the tuition component has clearly gone up substantially. When you are just starting out those few thousand dollars per year make a big difference on their own.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 3:06 AM
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A datapoint, I suppose:

I'm 24, have a bachelors degree in geology (graduated last June), and still live with my parents. I definitely can't afford to move out yet. Jobs for new graduate geologists have been surprisingly scarce since graduating, and what I do have doesn't pay very much... think lowest tax bracket. (Incidentally, any people with power looking for a savvy, efficient, works well with others or alone, super computer literate, self-motivating, new-ish geologist well versed in stratigraphy, structure, and sedimentary petrology?! )

I'm really not asking for a lot... just a half-decent 600 square foot one bedroom in the inner city that I own (no renting!) would be great. But, until my pay basically doubles, it's not gonna happen.

I know my parents built our house in 1985 for under $200k. It isn't big at all, but it has beautiful mountain views. The house has most recently been assessed at just under $800k. They owned one house in Calgary prior to this one, and it cost them well under $100k at the time.

So, in terms of housing... yeah, things definitely haven't gotten easier for my generation.

Tuition at the University of Calgary wasn't too bad, though. I might be saying otherwise had I not been lucky enough to have an RESP and lived at home, but at about $2,500 - $3,000 per semester, I don't think it was that high. Though, if that article is to be believed, that's well below average...

We'll see how things go for me. If my employment situation doesn't improve, I can see myself going back to school for a masters degree. Though, if I'm going to do that, I feel like I'd rather just dive head first into pure academia and work on something totally impractical but totally cool and awesome.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 5:33 AM
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i just went back to school for a career change - the wage is half of what i used to make but i like the work and it will improve with more time which is tough but worth it

what i notice about unemployment stats is they are based on people claiming EI - what about all the people who can't claim EI? like myself and a few of my coworkers laid off at the same big chop at our old place of employment - at least 5 people i worked with ran out of EI benefits and still didn't have a job, it took me a while, it took a number of people over 2 years to get a job again as well a few of us went back to school

anyway the government views these people, myself included as no longer getting EI therefore they must have gotten employed when in reality that's not the case, had to live on savings for quite a few months, quite scary times
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 6:57 AM
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If those numbers are correct, a lot of Canadians are really falling behind. I don't know how ALL of these real-estate prices are justifiable. The experts say "Not to worry" everything is fine! Hope they're right.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 7:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floobie View Post
A datapoint, I suppose:

I'm 24, have a bachelors degree in geology (graduated last June), and still live with my parents. I definitely can't afford to move out yet. Jobs for new graduate geologists have been surprisingly scarce since graduating, and what I do have doesn't pay very much... think lowest tax bracket. (Incidentally, any people with power looking for a savvy, efficient, works well with others or alone, super computer literate, self-motivating, new-ish geologist well versed in stratigraphy, structure, and sedimentary petrology?! )
..

We'll see how things go for me. If my employment situation doesn't improve, I can see myself going back to school for a masters degree. Though, if I'm going to do that, I feel like I'd rather just dive head first into pure academia and work on something totally impractical but totally cool and awesome.
My son just convocated with a bachelors degree in geology at the same time you did. He sent out applications like crazy and the only one that came through with a job offer was a mining company up at Thompson, Manitoba (they ended up offering him 3 positions). Son was interested in petroleum however, or working for a Saskatchewan company, and thankfully at the same time had a fellow graduate speak highly of him to his head hunter. He was contacted shortly after re a job as a well site geologist up in Northern Alberta. I think it was son's posting on his facebook page that he still hadn't got a job that caught the eye of his fellow grad (son has all the geologists that graduated with him connected to his facebook account).

Now he is saving money to pay off his education/new vehicle/etc. and building up a nest egg so he can get his masters (he has zero interest in living way up there for the rest of his life). The pay is damn good however.

Keep networking with your fellow graduates as I know Head Hunters are still looking for geologists.

Also, going by rigger high school buds of my son that post on his facebook page pleading with him to work for their company, there is quite the want/need for geologists that have English as their first language.

Last edited by PrairieGirl; May 9, 2012 at 7:34 AM.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 11:39 AM
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Okay , I have no doubt that these averages are about right . What I want to know is WHY ? Why have all of these things increased in cost in spite of the inflation rate ?
Bigger houses ? More costly materials ? Plain old demand ? I could see a correlation between some of these things and the average price of a house but it still doesn't seem to account for such a large differential . Of course , I have no real knowledge concerning what goes into a house these days .

As I recall 1984 , things were doing pretty well . There was plenty of demand for housing and we saw some pretty large (relative) construction starts across the country . As for technology ... well , okay , new insulation types and windows along the same lines ... that doesn't cost hundreds of thousands . What am I missing ?

Larger houses ? That's certainly a possibility I guess but as an indicator of market demand , we can't lay the blame for that on anybody but ourselves . Lot sizes have probably shrunk overall , at least in the cities .

Then we get to things like tuition . That one has always perplexed me . While the value of a university education has been cheapened dramatically in the sense that people can take all kinds of useless courses that will never get them the job they really want , we all know that you still have to produce that piece of paper to get virtually any job no matter how unrelated it is to what you studied . Even if the paper says you took four years to learn something you probably could have picked up in a couple of months for a couple grand if it were offered at a community college , that's not the students' fault .

Unless you're majoring in the hard sciences , one gets the impression that %90 of B.A.s are interchangeable . Why we have to pay more for them every year is , again something of a function of market demand . Or we're simply paying for an ever-expanding university bureaucracy of B.A. holders .
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 1:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floobie View Post
A datapoint, I suppose:

I'm 24, have a bachelors degree in geology (graduated last June), and still live with my parents. I definitely can't afford to move out yet. Jobs for new graduate geologists have been surprisingly scarce since graduating, and what I do have doesn't pay very much... think lowest tax bracket. (Incidentally, any people with power looking for a savvy, efficient, works well with others or alone, super computer literate, self-motivating, new-ish geologist well versed in stratigraphy, structure, and sedimentary petrology?! )

I'm really not asking for a lot... just a half-decent 600 square foot one bedroom in the inner city that I own (no renting!) would be great. But, until my pay basically doubles, it's not gonna happen.

I know my parents built our house in 1985 for under $200k. It isn't big at all, but it has beautiful mountain views. The house has most recently been assessed at just under $800k. They owned one house in Calgary prior to this one, and it cost them well under $100k at the time.

So, in terms of housing... yeah, things definitely haven't gotten easier for my generation.

Tuition at the University of Calgary wasn't too bad, though. I might be saying otherwise had I not been lucky enough to have an RESP and lived at home, but at about $2,500 - $3,000 per semester, I don't think it was that high. Though, if that article is to be believed, that's well below average...

We'll see how things go for me. If my employment situation doesn't improve, I can see myself going back to school for a masters degree. Though, if I'm going to do that, I feel like I'd rather just dive head first into pure academia and work on something totally impractical but totally cool and awesome.

I sympathize. It is really tough getting started...particularly breaking into the R/E market (something I was unable to do until I was 36 going on 37 years of age).

I recall living in Vancouver during the 1990s (after getting my [1994] B Comm [Concordia: hello MTL skyline!]). After 4 years of working full-time running a $15 million/year retail outlet, I still was pulling down only mid $40Ks, and I could not break into the condo market (back then, decent condos could be had for ~$160K...but the math showed that [even if I miraculously qualified for a mortgage] I would have about 4 cents in my pocket after paying mortgage + Condo fees + car payments...and interest rates could go up).

So I decided to go back to school (MSc, PhD). It also helps that I now live in a comparatively cheap city (London, Ont), especially given rather nasty student debt of myself/wife, plus cost of raising 2 kids.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 2:15 PM
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I belief most people who cant afford to enter the housing market aren't making the same sacfrices to save money that people were a generation ago. Camping has been replaced by yearly all inclusive trips to Mexico and weekend parties in Vegas. Growing vegetables like Potatoes, tomatoes, etc in gardens has been replaced by eating out multiple times a week. Lavish entertainment sytems and electronics are something people were willing to live without.

It's certainly not the same with everybody, but from my experiences it's the case.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 2:32 PM
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Apples to Oranges really.

Comparing now to even 1984 is like comparing now to 1933. There's definitely been a shift in lifestyle changes etc. The goals of a young adult in 1984 are definitely not the same as one in 2012.

In 1984 or actually just before, the tax rates for the highest earners were the highest they've ever been. Governments were much richer then and the services they could provide for their citizens more varied.

The tax rates for middle and lower income earners were much lower because they didn't maintain as big of a burden in making up the shortfall as they do now.

Actual income has not increased since the 1980s and in fact has gone down. If anything this should have caused the masses to revolt but either it's something they've put in the water or t.v. has really fried our brains because we just sit back and seem to enjoy getting poorer while buying more "stuff".


Over extended credit and the idea that you deserve this or that without having the income to support any of it has ruined us all.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 2:47 PM
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Originally Posted by SHOFEAR View Post
I belief most people who cant afford to enter the housing market aren't making the same sacfrices to save money that people were a generation ago.

Except housing costs have skyrocketed relative to the stagnant wage gains. This is a verifiable fact (read the article).
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 3:02 PM
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I don't know, but the tuition component has clearly gone up substantially. When you are just starting out those few thousand dollars per year make a big difference on their own.
I have this debtate with my younger brother all the time. He ended up with $20K in student debt whereas I ended up with $18K in net savings. My total tuition over that period of time was around $6K. I completed my first two degrees in five years total while it took him five years to complete one. So assuming he averaged $4k per year, he spent aroud $14K more on tution than did I. So his finances should have only been about $14K worse than mine, but ended up $38K worse. Tutuion was only a minor contributor to the difference:
-he took 5 years to complete a 4 years degree
-he only worked during the summers whereas I worked full time all year
-he lived with only one roomate in a good location, I lived with multiple roomates in crappy apartments in less desirable locations
-he bought food on campus at inflated prices, I brought my own
-he went to bars more or less every Thrus, Fri and Sat, I went to a bar maybe 2-3 times per year

The increase in student debt is mostly due to poor priority setting.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 3:07 PM
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Governments were much richer then and the services they could provide for their citizens more varied.

The early to mid 80s were the peak of the government debt crisis. They set the high water marks for the deficit at GDP ratio. Governments were paying roughly 12-14% on their debts.

As an aside, I still have a 20 year Alberta government bond that I purchased in 1993 that pays 13.5% annually. Governments did not enjoy the benefits of lower interest rates until the mid to late 80s.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 3:25 PM
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I belief most people who cant afford to enter the housing market aren't making the same sacfrices to save money that people were a generation ago.
You hear this from many people in older generations. While this may be true for some, I certainly don't think its true for the majority.

I consider myself lucky, and not at all part of the majority of people graduating today. I had significant help from both scholarships and my parents, something they have been saving up to do since before I was born. I have finished my exams and will convocate in May. I have no student debt (largely due to cheap tuition at Memorial University) a paid off car, and am currently renting. Thanks to some very strong references from professors, I have attained a job in my ideal field, in a Canadian city that is relatively cheap when compared to others. My salary isn't great, definitely low tax bracket level, but I have been promised an increase within the next few months.

I'm not bragging, I assure you. The point I want to make is that when compared to almost all of my close friends I have had the easiest ride, and likely am in the front of the line to buy a house. I've looked, its something I very much am considering. Unfortunately, if I want anything that isn't a complete dive, I STILL can't afford it without help from my parents. Now that I'm working, help from my parents is not something I wish to ask for. As such, I will continue renting. Housing prices are just too high (and this is in St. John's, which has a lower average house price than any of the cities in the Globe and Mail article I imagine.)

Now let's take one of my closest friends as an example. Forced to take student loans to attend school at MUN (and let's make note, MUN is one of the cheapest schools in the country if you aren't a student from Quebec going to school in Quebec, so people my age attending school elsewhere are in harder shape), loans which I would guess he'll be paying back for at least ten years. He has switched his degree once due to very poor reviews of the job market he wanted to enter, and so has to do an extra few courses before graduating. He can't find ANY part time work in his field as he finishes up his course load, so he'll be spending the summer roofing. To achieve his roofing job, he had to borrow money from his parents to buy a car so he could get around (more debt). Most students in St. John's have no choice but to purchase a vehicle before anything else in order to meet the demands of a job (not sure about other Canadian cities). It would be impractical to take the bus to a roofing job, but regardless, this car means even more debt. Hopefully when he graduates he'll be able to find a job with relative ease, but these are tough times, as has been frequently documented.

Both myself and my friend are clearly at opposite extremes of the spectrum. And make note, I'm not here to complain about either of our situations. My point is, the argument that my generation isn't willing to "make the same sacrifices" or "work as hard" is silly. Look at numbers. Look at costs. Read the article in question. That is a far more reasonable way to analyze the situation than claiming "your generation wants things handed to them." I'm 23 in July, I have two degrees, I think the Occupy Wall Street movement is a joke, and I've never asked for anything to be handed to me. I'm not going to complain while I sit here and rent, and I will bide my time until I can afford to purchase a nice place. But to say that things are the same today as they once were is an uninformed and silly statement. If someone who has been as lucky as me can't afford to purchase a house, who can? Certainly not my close friend, or other young people my age in other parts of the country. Things are tough coming out of school right now, and I believe the headline of the Globe and Mail article hits the nail on the head.

EDIT: And note, I don't disagree with your assessment that my generation doesn't do small things like grow their own tomatoes. You're right, I don't know anyone that does that, and I do know a hell of a lot of people who take off to Cancun for a week to celebrate the end of classes. I agree with you there. My point is that when you look at the numbers, and you look at the differences between then and now, my generation isn't facing problems that can be solved by planting a vegetable garden.

Last edited by Copes; May 9, 2012 at 3:44 PM.
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Old Posted May 9, 2012, 4:59 PM
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Quote:
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I have this debtate with my younger brother all the time. He ended up with $20K in student debt whereas I ended up with $18K in net savings. My total tuition over that period of time was around $6K. I completed my first two degrees in five years total while it took him five years to complete one. So assuming he averaged $4k per year, he spent aroud $14K more on tution than did I. So his finances should have only been about $14K worse than mine, but ended up $38K worse. Tutuion was only a minor contributor to the difference:
How long ago was this? The tuition you paid for two degrees is less than the cost of two terms of five courses was for me.

I went to school in an expensive province but I had no choice -- it was expensive tuition at home or a higher cost of living in another province.
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