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  #1  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2009, 8:36 PM
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If the UK left the EU what would the consequences be?

If the UK left the EU what would the consequences be?


16 November 2009

By Chris Bowlby

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8359160.stm

Quote:
Up to 55% of those asked in recent British opinion polls say they would support it. But it's hardly ever discussed in polite political society. What is this great taboo?

- But what would a divorce between Britain and the EU mean in practice? It's hard to know precisely. Like any such separation, much would depend on the mood in which it was done, co-operative or acrimonious.

- Lord Pearson, keen to stress the savings he believes would come from a UK exit, says that UKIP wants "to continue in friendly free trade and therefore we will phase out what we send… over an agreed period".

- Simon Hix, professor at the London School of Economics, suggests that cheap flights to EU countries could be threatened if new costs were imposed on British airlines. He sees a potential threat too to what's available in British shops such as French wine and Italian cheeses. This "cuisine culture" has happened "because of the European single market," he says. "Do we really want to give that up?"
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  #2  
Old Posted Nov 21, 2009, 12:44 PM
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it's not going to happen. there's what, 2 million Brits outside the UK living in the other EU nations, and something like 2.2m non-british EU citizens in the UK. do people expect all these people to lose their jobs, homes and the lives they have built for themselves and immediately move back to the country of their birth? the majority of british trade is also with the EU nd being in that bloc gives us greater weight to negotiate freedom of movement for goods, capital and people with other nations - such as Canada and South Korea - which is exactly what the EU is doing at the moment. it just makes no sense to leave at this point. however i can see the UK opting out of more and more EU directives, as it currently does with the Euro and Schengen.
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Old Posted Feb 9, 2010, 4:50 PM
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When is Europe going to merge into a super state ala the US but with more home rule clauses in a new constitution? That is the real question.
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Old Posted Feb 9, 2010, 5:42 PM
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When is Europe going to merge into a super state ala the US but with more home rule clauses in a new constitution? That is the real question.
It's a gradual process. We're probably a bit further along than Americans or indeed many in Europe themselves realize. For me personally, still a bit too slow though. I think the real shocker will come when the generation that doesn't know any better than European integration (open borders, single currency) comes to power. These are the twenty somethings in the west and the teenagers in the east. So in 10-15 years I'm expecting an accellaration of integration, also because globalization demands it.
A constitution isn't really needed, maybe a new treaty in 10 years. We should now focus on development in the east and unifying of foreign policy I think. Also letting a real European identity cultivate.
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Old Posted Feb 9, 2010, 10:43 PM
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^wishful thinking that is far from virtual every poll around...

There is no doubt that Europeans like cooperation, but there is VERY far from an advanced trade union to a single state... ( as the Lisbon showed were the politicians didn't even dare ask the public about it )

And if anything globilization will make us get rid of the dead weight such as Southern Europe and many of the Eastern states that Brussels & co were in such hurry to incorporate before they were ready... and if that isn't happening nations will simply leave rather than getting dragged down - just wait and see
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If the UK left the EU what would the consequences be?
Then Denmark would split too

And hopefully a few more so we could get a the Nordic Council updated to a union with like minded and equal nations with a common interest

Then Turkey, Greece and Romania could inherit it while France and Germany merge and Belgium was split between the Netherlands and France

( the Netherlands and UK can join the NU too, if they promise to get rid of their pesky beer brands )
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  #6  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2010, 11:28 PM
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Originally Posted by FREKI View Post
^wishful thinking that is far from virtual every poll around...
No it's not...

Actually you are far from the general opinion for your age group. Bordering on delusional even, we've already established that over the years. Your "Nordic Union" bullshit in this last post is just more evidence to these delusions. Not...gonna...happen...
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  #7  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 1:10 AM
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Some positive effects for EU-Europe can be expected if Britain leaves.

The UK would be hit pretty hard. Probably international investment would dry out. The major European headquarters in London would start to relocate to Paris, Frankfurt, Berlin.

The integration process wouldn´t be so much hampered anymore, as the UK has since its membership worked the hardest to avoid any major developments.

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These are the twenty somethings in the west and the teenagers in the east. So in 10-15 years I'm expecting an accellaration of integration, also because globalization demands it.
A constitution isn't really needed, maybe a new treaty in 10 years. We should now focus on development in the east and unifying of foreign policy I think. Also letting a real European identity cultivate.
Pretty much my view. The Lisbon Treaty is basically of a constitutional nature, though not perfect. From todays perspective I wouldn´t bet on new treaty discussions before 2020. In the mean time I reckon, rebuilding the East, integrating the Balkan, expanding and stabilizing the Eurozone and the creation of a European military defense are the priorities. Globalization will push the member states even further together.

My biggest hope though and the most crucial element to develop an EU European identity would be the creation of a high quality 24 h TV channel which is prominently installed in all member countries. The sense of common agendas would increase. The knowledge and the trust among EU citizens would increase as well. Apart from all political initiatives the missing pan European media is the biggest problem. Without a common media (TV and radio) a true sense of EU identity can hardly be achieved.
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 2:24 AM
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Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
No it's not...

Actually you are far from the general opinion for your age group. Bordering on delusional even, we've already established that over the years. Your "Nordic Union" bullshit in this last post is just more evidence to these delusions. Not...gonna...happen...
5 years... that's how long we've been doing this on SSC and here we are.. Euro countries in a crisis, support down... Danes still enjoying their Krone and Opt outs and the Brits still want to leave...

Let's see how it looks in 5 years

( my guess... EU stagnant, half the nations with terrible economics draining the system, even lower support for anything hence no new moves other than the central bank being pissed doing damage control.. and a split Belgium lacking a government again... oh year and maybe even a reduced number of Euro countries - certainly no Euro's in any Scandinavian nation )


As for nations leaving...the EU is a card house, it only takes one.. ( go UK you can do it! )
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 2:34 AM
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Delusions...


It's been 5 years and here we are with a common currency that has stood the test of time and crisis. More countries joined and even more are lined up to join (including Denmark where a majority wants to join). Lisbon Treaty passed and overall further integration on all fronts.

And here you are talking about splitting Belgium, merging France and Germany, countries leaving the EU to make their own union. Still after 5 years living in a fantasy world... The EU is going nowhere, you better get used to it.
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 2:46 AM
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^at no point have there EVER been a majority for the Euro here! ( why no politician have ever dared even touch the topic ) but hey don't take it from me.. let's see in 5 years shall we ( hopefully we'll get to downvote it like the Swedes by then )


And as for the rest no point in debating that either, we know we'll never agree so we might as well just let time tell


What we probable can agree on is that the old ways with a manufacturing based southern Europe is gone and will never return and they can't live off vegetables and fruits - so unless they act fast and modernize they ( and thus the EU ) will face some hard time ahead...

The US may live above it's means, but at least it's modern and diverse... what will get Eastern and Southern Europe going again? - the initial investment interest is gone.. now it's up to themselves now..
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 2:59 AM
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I would at least expected you to be knowledgable about your own domestic politics...guess not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_...uts_referendum
(hint: you will get your referendum before fall 2011).

And don't bullshit us about your politicians not daring to touch the subject, as Rasmussen himself said that Denmark is in fact already using the euro only you call it the kroner (which is true) . Among other statements from all sorts of politicians. There most definately is a political debate, but I guess it is easy to deny if you are living in fantasyland.

Among your other delusions, you're also delusional about "southern Europe". Spain and Italy have very diverse economies at least on par with Denmark (not comparable though because Denmark is a small nation). They are not "living of fruits and vegetables" anymore then Denmark is living of dairy products...
Parts of Spain and Italy are as modern as Denmark, so don't wank yourself of just yet...Where's Denmark's HSR or skyscraper?
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 3:19 AM
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Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
I would at least expected you to be knowledgable about your own domestic politics...guess not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_...uts_referendum
(hint: you will get your referendum before fall 2011).


5 years of claims and no referendum yet ( and no interest what so ever from the Government in one ) so lets see shall we

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And don't bullshit us about your politicians not daring to touch the subject, as Rasmussen himself said that Denmark is in fact already using the euro only you call it the kroner (which is true)
Rasmussen is long gone and the Krone is what it has always been.. the Danish currency controlled by the National Bank fully independent of the Euro and the European Central Bank


We are ( as I have informed you about many times ) getting our new note series these years ( from 9 to 11 ) - not especially pretty sadly, hopefully the next series will look better and be of polymer )
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Among other statements from all sorts of politicians. There most definately is a political debate, but I guess it is easy to deny if you are living in fantasyland.
A fantasy land where I have been right for 5 years now... maybe just maybe the dream of getting the Scandinavians onboard is clouding the vision of the southerners, because nothing have changed here... and you can see and as you will see in time

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Among your other delusions, you're also delusional about "southern Europe". Spain and Italy have very diverse economies at least on par with Denmark (not comparable though because Denmark is a small nation).
Greece has twice our population ( their's are comparable to Sweden ) so let's not start all those size excuses.. as for SPain and Italy those are brought up by you, but in many ways face the same problems..

Denmark came out of 2009 with the second higher surplus on record - Greece is going belly up screaming for help ( just as Portugal and many of the Eastern European nations are )..


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They are not "living of fruits and vegetables" anymore then Denmark is living of dairy products...
Nope but China and other Asian nations are taking their production, so what else is there? ( that was my question! )


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Where's Denmark's HSR or skyscraper?
HSR is in the works both to Germany ( who is halting it by not being willing to pay/build their part ) and across Samsø to Århus, but as our nation can be crossed in a matter of minutes by plane and nearly the same by train there isn't much of an interest ( as I'm sure you understand ) by those who have to pay ( it would basically be Europe's largest bridge project twice the scale of Femern )

BTW to be technical - the 180km/h we use is technically HSR by US standards


As for skyscrapers... well you didn't hear about our supertall project ( Thors Hammer??? ) 632m of pristine Danish design right smack in the middle of the habour!

( nah we'll see Scrapers the same year we'll see Euro's here... good luck to my grandchildren )


Anyways mate we have been trough this countless times over the years - I'm not about to go into another one of these..

So far it has followed my prediction - and if we give it another 5 years we can see it continues that way - personally I see no change in sight ( heck the left side ( former reds ) is close to taking government and they oppose it even more than the current government, but hey... time will tell


Have a nice night, it's about bedtime for me..
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 3:25 AM
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I bet, by 2020 we have 30 member states (Iceland, Croatia, Serbia new) and 25
countries in the Eurozone.
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 3:42 AM
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Originally Posted by FREKI View Post

5 years of claims and no referendum yet ( and no interest what so ever from the Government in one ) so lets see shall we
They're saying before the end of 2011 aren't they?

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Rasmussen is long gone and the Krone is what it has always been.. the Danish currency controlled by the National Bank fully independent of the Euro and the European Central Bank
This was said by Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who correct me if I'm wrong is still there...
http://politiken.dk/politik/article710127.ece
And actually the krone is pegged to the euro, but we've been down that road before with you...:ohno:

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We are ( as I have informed you about many times ) getting our new note series these years ( from 9 to 11 ) - not especially pretty sadly, hopefully the next series will look better and be of polymer )
Who cares, we also got a new note just before the introduction of the Euro.

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A fantasy land where I have been right for 5 years now... maybe just maybe the dream of getting the Scandinavians onboard is clouding the vision of the southerners, because nothing have changed here... and you can see and as you will see in time

Greece has twice our population ( their's are comparable to Sweden ) so let's not start all those size excuses..

Denmark came out of 2009 with the second higher surplus on record - Greece is going belly up screaming for help ( just as Portugal and many of the Eastern European nations are )..
Since you are cherry picking let's talk about Iceland...

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Nope but China and other Asian nations are taking their production, so what else is there? ( that was my question! )
Don't even know what to answer to this one, because I don't know what's more delusional...suggesting China somehow "took" all manufacturing from Spain and Italy or the question "what else is there". Surely you are not that ignorant , are you? The tourism and construction industries alone. Or the banking and international companies (Fortune 500) that Denmark doesn't have. Geesh...

Quote:
HSR is in the works both to Germany and across Samsø to Århus, but as our nation can be crossed in a matter of minutes by place and nearly the same by train there isn't much of an interest ( as I'm sure you understand )

BTW to be technical - the 180km/h we use is technically HSR by US standards
Yeah nice try. 180 kph is a regular intercity train by European standards and Spain is building the second largest HSR network in Europe with several lines already operational.

Quote:
Anyways mate we have been trough this countless times over the years - I'm not about to go into another one of these..

So far it has followed my prediction - and if we give it another 5 years we can see it continues that way - personally I see no change in sight ( heck the left side ( former reds ) is close to taking government and they oppose it even more than the current government, but hey... time will tell
This is how deep your delusion goes. You actually think everything has been going according to your predictions. Your prediction was the EU failing and breaking up, countries leaving the euro.
Now back in reality more countries have joined the euro and the EU and the Lisbon Treaty passed.
I guess even with euronotes in your wallet in a few years you will still fantasize about getting the krone back...
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 4:39 AM
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They're saying before the end of 2011 aren't they?
No... no referendum planned, the PM don't even want/dare to talk about it, even the pro parties they have much given up on it this term....
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And actually the krone is pegged to the euro, but we've been down that road before with you...:ohno:
Yes we have and the ERM 2 is a voluntary flexible agreement where the Danish National Bank keeps the Krone within 15% of the Euro as long as it is beneficial to the Krone and State..

Like the UK did Denmark can leave it at any time we want to and we are in no way bound by neither value nor agreement.. it makes sense ( or it did before the Euro nations started strugling ) hence it was done..

But now where it have forced us to keep lovering out interest rate and with this hole Greece thing it might be smarter for us to let our currence go back up to it's real value ( but that is up to the experts, if nothing else the current value is beneficial to exporters.. )
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Since you are cherry picking let's talk about Iceland...
By all means go ahead.. the banks bought up half of Europe for money they didn't have - we were laughing at it 10 years ago... now it of course turned sad, but that was the Icelandic government's fault.. and they are always welcome to rejoin Denmark

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This is how deep your delusion goes. You actually think everything has been going according to your predictions. Your prediction was the EU failing and breaking up, countries leaving the euro.
Mate look up the old threads - the failing of the EU is my dream, not my prediction..

My prediction is as it has always been that Denark will stand on the sideline until a nation ( most likely the UK ) leaves and we will see our chance to do the same and team up with Norway


( since then serious talks about unifying the 3 Scandinavian nations have come out, so who knows Kalmar Union might get a second chance..
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Now back in reality more countries have joined the euro and the EU and the Lisbon Treaty passed.
I guess even with euronotes in your wallet in a few years you will still fantasize about getting the krone back...
The Lisbon was passed with a single out of 27 nations asked ( who turned it down first time around ).. democracy at it's finest - how do you think people feel the next time the EU tries to pass something over their heads...

We got the same treatment when we down-voted the Maarstrict... so no politician dare try that again ( but some parts they have to why much of the Lisbon was changed to specificly avoid that as it was clear how it would go here if we got the chance )



Anyways mate, I don't think we'll achieve anything we haven't in the last 5 years so let's give it another 5 and see shall we
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 5:19 AM
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i dont see why the UK or denmark would want out of the EU. i can understand some economic and sovereignty issues but i suspect in the coming years, the EU will be where all the cool kids want to hang out..being that as more regional economic powers become global economic powers (china, brazil, india in addition to the US and japan), it would be wise for relatively smaller states to band together. denmark is small potatoes when view globally.
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 5:23 AM
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Oh I don't want to acheive anything with you but to expose your delusions.
If I learned anything is that you have many, ranging from climate change to the EU to city sizes (Copenhagen being bigger than Barcelona and all...)

Here you are totally smug and confident "let's give it another 5". Don't you realise how ridiculous that sounds? What do you think will happen?

Oh yeah:
-Belgium splitting up...
-France and Germany merging...
-UK leaving the EU, after which Denmark finally can because that is what Danes want...
-euro collapsing...
-reinstatement of the Kalmar Union...
-"team up" with Norway...

It's hard to pick the most ridiculous delusional one.

Back in reality we have:
-further integration like the past 30 years
-more countries joining the euro like they intent to
-Denmark making a decision about joining the euro, after which Sweden probably will also
-Iceland joining the EU and euro like they intent to

Keep on dreaming about the EU collapsing and the resurrection of ancient unions as an alternative!
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 5:27 AM
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i dont see why the UK or denmark would want out of the EU. i can understand some economic and sovereignty issues but i suspect in the coming years, the EU will be where all the cool kids want to hang out..being that as more regional economic powers become global economic powers (china, brazil, india in addition to the US and japan), it would be wise for relatively smaller states to band together. denmark is small potatoes when view globally.
The trouble with FREKI is that he's so far out in this debate that noone takes him serious when debating this stuff among Europeans, but here he's so vocal that some might think he's got anything legitimate to say or that he's views are widely shared. I mean the guy is talking about reinstating a medieval union that disbanded in 1523!
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 5:34 AM
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The trouble with FREKI is that he's so far out in this debate that noone takes him serious when debating this stuff among Europeans, but here he's so vocal that some might think he's got anything legitimate to say or that he's views are widely shared. I mean the guy is talking about reinstating a medieval union that disbanded in 1523!
hey, you can't fault the guy for longing for the good old days.
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Old Posted Feb 10, 2010, 5:36 AM
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i dont see why the UK or denmark would want out of the EU. i can understand some economic and sovereignty issues but i suspect in the coming years, the EU will be where all the cool kids want to hang out..being that as more regional economic powers become global economic powers (china, brazil, india in addition to the US and japan), it would be wise for relatively smaller states to band together. denmark is small potatoes when view globally.
Being small and flexible is what have gotten is this far after our empire days went sour and inflighting ruined the united Scandinavian dream..

We have our social system, we have our worker rights and wages and we have fought very hard to get them to those points - what benefits there is from a national point to be an EU member is jeopardizing our social system..

I know European nation can come off quite similar from a far, but on the ground there are great differences and I think Danes are the best ones to decide what is best for the Danes in the future.. and unlike nations such as Germany and France that has gone trough defeat after defeat and is now searching for an identity and to restore their place on the globe, we do have a place, we do know who we are, we have an identity and we like being what we are..

I don't have any beef with the EU as a trade union, but when we constant have to fight legal cases with even basic stuff such as banning transfat acids or having charity to be taxfree then it is more harmful than beneficial to us and I would prefere to get out unless it relaxed a bit..

If I ever put kids in this world I want them to grow up in a nation build on our values that works hard to do the best for them, nor farmers in France or factory workers in Poland..

If the Kingdom subsequently lose out from that stance, so be it - there is more to life than money and might and many nations get's off fine with a fraction of what we have.. as long as people have a place to sleep and food to eat we'll get by, it wouldn't be the first time the Kingdom faced hardship, nor overcame it..
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Here you are totally smug and confident "let's give it another 5". Don't you realise how ridiculous that sounds? What do you think will happen?
I honestly think that I have a better idea of the political landscape in my county than you can find on Wiki and I have proven that for 5 years, so I think we should take another 5 years and see how it goes..


As I have also made clear I am very welcoming of referendums, only problem is that the politicians knows the feelings of the Danes and don't dare..
( we saw that at the European Parliament elections where a majority of Danes voted for EU opposing parties to represent them )

But sooner or later they will have to and I will get to post an "I told you so" post here with a smug smile on my face...

Until then I don't see any reason in debating it as we have shown many times before there is no value to it - our opinions differs greatly - let it stay there, it's not like I'm gonna make an Eu sceptic out of you nor you an pro EU fan out of me..

So mate, let's give it some time and see what happens... okay
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