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Originally Posted by Utah_Dave
Hey Delts, I’ve heard that in general housing prices have for the most part peaked along the west coast. Do you find that to be the case? It sounds like large scale projects still have plenty of demand from what you are saying. I would definitely like to see the economy to come back down to a more balanced footing, no recession though. If some markets across the country cooled off a little bit it might help us out. But the way I see it is out of state investment would probably dry up here in a small market if investors became concerned about the larger markets cooling down. They would probably just “wait and see” what the overall health of the US economy would do before switching gears and investing in our smaller market. It feels like a no-win situation with out-of-state investment in that scenario but maybe the labor aspect could benefit or local developers in the situation if they could stomach the unknown risk and move forward.
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Anyone's guess is as good as the other. We seem to be building to the possibility of the best of times or the worst of times. Experts give their many opinions then ultimately throw their hands in the air and exclaim it's anyone's guess. Single-family residential seems to be taking a breather on the West Coast, but major multi-family and commercial seems to be shifting into an even higher gear.
Love him or hate him Trump is a savvy poker player. Just the Chinese attitude and response alone could set the world market on two completely different courses. Who will call who's bluff, and will the many historic deals with other economic powers blunt China's capacity to play with impunity. The fresh deal with Japan and the new deal with Mexico and Canada, the upcoming deals with Great Britain, Italy and the rest of Europe as a result of Brexit or even multiple Brexits. Will China feel compelled to acquiesce or will it thumb it's nose at the rest of the world? After all, it's a dictatorship, and in many ways, it has some of the same compunctions as its neighboring N. Korea. The ruling elite could just let the Chinese masses suffer while they play this game of chicken with the U.S. and its allies.
If we do encounter another recession of sorts in 2020/2021 as many fear we might, will The Wasatch once again prove to be more resilient than the majority of the nation?
Right now the secret about certain aspects of Utah's unique nature is out. Utah is on the go-to tech world map, the medical fields map, the manufacturing, warehousing and distribution map, etc. The Wasatch is one of the most diverse go-to economies in the nation.
One thing is for certain, whether its single-family residential or multi-family, people will need a place to live. This past great recession has brought on some definite adjustments in the construction industry. People like Ivory, Woodbury or Boyer have become adept multi-taskers. If the housing bubble should shift, then Ivory will have no problem moving over to apartment complexes or whatever is needed to keep itself active. I think whether its the Los Angeles market or the Wasatch Front market housing construction will be active in at least some type of sector, single or multi. In the past recession, we saw the Wasatch Front outperform many of the 50 largest markets. It is even better equipped to handle another blip than it was back in 2008. Remember, the Wasatch Front was experiencing a vibrant expansion when much of the rest of the country was stagnant or retracting deeply. The current economy leads to all boats rising, but I think in a future recession the Salt Lake City market will once again outperform the majority of the markets. Whether that translates into a continual buildup of highrises is questionable. However, I think the denser infill mid-rise apartment market in Salt Lake will never look back again.