Could California’s Population Actually Shrink

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

California is a victim of its own success. Housing affordability has plunged for middle class and poor, so we have massive out-migration. Must go on waiting list and pay big to rent a moving truck. In the future we will have a bimodal population. Maybe 10% rich and upper middle class. The rest will be poor working class, including many immigrants. The lower middle class will be hollowed out. The only way out is to create massive affordable housing through subsidies. No doubt NIMBYs will object. When the big tech companies in Silicon Valley and Hollywood studios figure out that they can hire workers in places like Texas for much less (since the workers can live for less), that is when the California decline becomes more obvious. Of course the head honchos will continue to live in SF, LA and SD since they can afford it and they like the environment and lifestyle. But the drones will increasingly live and work elsewhere.

Remote access or working from home could change the dynamics. As tech grows and its outreach (prices dropping for "X" function), so does the ability of conventional jobs to be done remotely and/or from other locations. Plenty of jobs when you think about it. Data entry, programming, accounting. A lot of it can be done at home in theory. Even your typical face-to-face meeting can be conducted via live-streaming platforms.

So in theory, tech could somewhat help the affordability access if remote access becomes more popular. I do dread if such a wide-spread scenario does occur, what it would do to our cities. Would in essence increase the allure of the suburban living (price).

On the plus, it would greatly help financially. Less commuting, not having to live in an expensive metro because the high paying jobs are there. So long as companies are giving pay ranges that are market rate and competitive for the region "Y", it might be a good thing.

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

California is a victim of its own success. Housing affordability has plunged for middle class and poor, so we have massive out-migration. Must go on waiting list and pay big to rent a moving truck. In the future we will have a bimodal population. Maybe 10% rich and upper middle class. The rest will be poor working class, including many immigrants. The lower middle class will be hollowed out. The only way out is to create massive affordable housing through subsidies.

Thinking back on everything, that bolded quote makes a lot of sense now when we observed how California grew in the 20th century.


Essentially, it was pretty much the first "Sunbelt" state. It grew rapidly through building vast suburbs for people coming in from the Midwest and Northeast and received businesses and even sport teams from those regions. People originally came to California for the American Dream, which involved buying a SFH and a car for most. LA, as we all know, was mostly built for the automobile and California has always been advertised as a place where it's a pleasure to drive, the weather is warmer year round, and where you weren't limited to the constraints that existed in the east.


It's similar to how states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and others are growing today. They're not as iconic as California, but they are offering an automobile, suburban, good weather lifestyle that many Americans still desire today.


The main drawback of that sunbelt lifestyle is the result, which is already being seen in Cali. You can only built sprawl, even dense sprawl, over such a large area before you run out of space, either geographically or politically through development barriers. That point has been reached in California, which is causing the housing to be the most expensive in the country. The same will probably happen in other Sunbelt states. It's already happening in Miami from what I heard because the Everglades and Atlantic are major natural barriers.

[Pedestrian]

Megaregion a vision for redistributing the California dream

Joe Mathews
July 26, 2018 Updated: July 26, 2018 7:18 p.m.

. . . four connected Northern California regions — (the Bay Area} along with the greater Sacramento area, the Northern San Joaquin Valley, and the Central Coast triumvirate of Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito counties — struggle with severe challenges in housing, land use, jobs, transportation, education and the environment. Since such problems cross regional boundaries, shouldn’t the regions address them together — as one giant region?

The Northern California Megaregion — a concept developed by a think tank, the Bay Area Council Economic Institute — includes 12 million people and 21 counties, extending from the Wine Country to the lettuce fields of the Salinas Valley, and from the Pacific coast to the Nevada border.

. . . The Megaregion is home to the mega-rich in San Francisco and to very poor cities like Stockton, Salinas and Vallejo. As high housing prices push people out of the Bay Area, they flee deep into the Megaregion, only to find they are too far away from their jobs and schools. The results: brutal traffic that produces more greenhouse gases and longer commutes.

Figuring out how to rebalance the Megaregion and solve such problems is a high-stakes challenge, and not just for Northern Californians. The entire state relies heavily on the growth and tax revenues generated by the Bay Area, which represents one-third of California’s economy. And the Megaregion concept offers a vision for how the Golden State might spread out its prosperity, creating a better distributed version of the California dream . . . .

. . . Megaregional planning could create more high-tech jobs and companies outside of the Bay Area, by better connecting universities, laboratories and research institutions with local entrepreneurs.

Such planning should be performed by new economic development entities that extend across the Megaregion; companies that now leave the Bay Area for Austin might be redirected to Sacramento or Santa Cruz. Such an effort would be strengthened if Bay Area entities jointly lobbied Sacramento to boost education levels in the Northern San Joaquin . . . .

https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/...e-13109347.php

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by JoeMusashi

I mean, do these rich liberals want to send more of their tax dollars to the federal government to be spent on entitlement programs in other states or not? Socialism is about the rich paying for the poor but when it comes down to it you don’t get a feeling anyone is actually for it.

Obviously yes. Blue state liberals have strongly supported Obamacare and other policies which disproportionaly favor red states (blue states like NY and CA already tax themselves to have such policies, and don't directly benefit much).

Socialism has nothing to do with it. Just because govt. does something other than dropping bombs doesn't mean it's "socialist". It's actually a hugely radical position to claim that govt. should not provide such services considered essential in the rest of the developed world, as if U.S. babies are unique in not needing prenatal care, or U.S. parents are unique in not requiring childcare.

[ozone]

California, like an insecure male lover, is always bragging about how big it is. And so reaching the 40 million threshold—there is no red-letter date, though, by state figures, it’s likely to happen in late summer—will occasion another round of boasting about our size, not merely in population but in economic output and cultural impact.

I don't who he talks with but most Californians don't go around bragging about our population size. Most us would prefer less people not more. If I mention it at all it is usually relevant to a larger discussion-- like how easily California is dismissed and even despised by people in other states or how our political system under-represents the state at the federal level, or with racists who don't understand percentages and claim that there's hardly any whites living in California, when in fact it has the largest white population of any state.

[mthd]

these articles seem to all stem from the same basic place:

the rest of the country is more than happy to take our massive tax dollars, produce, innovation, investment opportunity, entertainment and culture, etc, but ONLY if they can carry on a fiction about how the state is going to hell in order to dampen their own insecurity.

we have a big budget surplus, modest population growth (.78% in 2017, down from .86% in 2016), unparalleled innovation and economic opportunity, a chance at significant steps forward in infrastructure, nearly the lowest energy use per capita in the country, generally great weather year round with a few exceptions, the most vibrant urban core west of the mississippi, beaches, mountains, lakes, etc etc.

the single reason california isn't growing MUCH FASTER is supply and demand. because of all the above reasons, demand is very high. supply is not. thus prices are very, very high. as with almost anything in life, you get what you pay for.

[northbay]

I'd be more than happy with less people here. All jerks please move out!

And I agree with ozone and mthd.

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by northbay

I'd be more than happy with less people here. All jerks please move out!

And I agree with ozone and mthd.

Yes, but you know how the cookie crumbles; all the smarties will leave except you, your wife and your smart kid/dog.

[mousquet]

^ It's too big already. That wouldn't happen to them, like resources are endless now.

[chris08876]

I was looking at some homes for purchase in San Diego County and its just ludicrous some of the shacks you can get and what they are going for. Houses that look like a POS going for 550k or more. Average seems to be like 600-650k.

You pretty much need a generous down payment like 100-200k to make it reasonable per month or a couple making 80k each.

I'm not sure how folks manage out there. Mortgage is one thing, but factor in everything else.

Like, how the hell do the younger folks manage (aside from the tech jobs which isn't everyone, only a small %)? Really, it seems like you'd have to be 34-37 years old on average to be able to comfortably enter the housing market. At least when we are talking 600-800k homes as to not be paycheck to paycheck.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by chris08876

I was looking at some homes for purchase in San Diego County and its just ludicrous some of the shacks you can get and what they are going for. Houses that look like a POS going for 550k or more. Average seems to be like 600-650k.

Prospective buyers would view that as a 'tear down'.

Originally Posted by chris08876

Like, how the hell do the younger folks manage (aside from the tech jobs which isn't everyone, only a small %)? Really, it seems like you'd have to be 34-37 years old on average to be able to comfortably enter the housing market. At least when we are talking 600-800k homes as to not be paycheck to paycheck.

Americans should look on the bright side. At least there are big city alternatives if one can't afford to buy in San Diego, San Francisco, New York, etc. That's not the case north of the border.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by chris08876

how the hell do the younger folks manage (aside from the tech jobs which isn't everyone, only a small %)? Really, it seems like you'd have to be 34-37 years old on average to be able to comfortably enter the housing market. At least when we are talking 600-800k homes as to not be paycheck to paycheck.

First of all, Californians are used to spending 50% of disposable income on housing. Especially in San Diego, which IMHOP has possibly the best climate in North America and arguably the best on earth, there is plenty to do outdoors for close to free so that isn't as awful as it seems.

Then, when you are talking about buying anything more roomy than a studio condo, you are mostly talking about couples with 2 substantial incomes: $15,000 gross per month and up available.

Finally, at the prices you described, you are probably talking about either in downtown San Diego or in the 10 mile (or so) temperate belt near the ocean. People with less money necessarily look farther inland where prices are lower--a lot lower because in San Diego you don't have to go very far inland before you are in the Mojave Desert. FYI the Bay Area has a much larger temperate zone as does even LA. By the way, be it known that even close to the ocean, San Diego is desert. It averages, or so I've read, about 8 inches of rain per year which is less than Tucson at 12 inches. It's just that close to the water, it's much cooler than Tucson because of the effect of winds blowing ashore over all that cool water (on the west coast this is much more dramatic than on the east coast because the water is colder all year around and because the prevailing winds are off the water).

[jd3189]

I'm at the Inland Empire right now and I say it's a pretty good deal. As a med student, I'm rooming with 2 other people in a 3 bedroom apartment in Loma Linda. I'm only a bus away from the San Bernardino metrolink station, which gives access to LA and all the other coastal places. Granted it can get really hot here, it's still good weather and it's relatively cheap.


At least in LA's metro case, it would be beneficial to build more multi-family in towns along the metrolink.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by jd3189

I'm at the Inland Empire right now and I say it's a pretty good deal. As a med student, I'm rooming with 2 other people in a 3 bedroom apartment in Loma Linda. I'm only a bus away from the San Bernardino metrolink station, which gives access to LA and all the other coastal places. Granted it can get really hot here, it's still good weather and it's relatively cheap.


At least in LA's metro case, it would be beneficial to build more multi-family in towns along the metrolink.

Sorry if I can't cry for you "as a med student". "As a med student" I lived with six other people in an old house (in Durham, NC) that a guy had bought planning to fix up and flip but he didn't have the money to do that right away so he rented it to us. Trust me it can get "really hot" in Durham in summer as well . . . and humid. I bought a cheap window A/C and stuck it in the bedroom window.

Then, "as a resident" I made the generous salary of $6000 per year and could afford my own little garden one bedroom apartment (with central A/C) in Gainesville, FL. Such luxury! Or, it would have been if I were ever home.

Suffering, it seems, is part of medical education. By the way, "as a med student" how do you have the time to post here? About the only time I suspect I might have is in the middle of the night when on duty in the hospital and there were no crises.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

First of all, Californians are used to spending 50% of disposable income on housing. Especially in San Diego, which IMHOP has possibly the best climate in North America and arguably the best on earth, there is plenty to do outdoors for close to free so that isn't as awful as it seems.

50%? That's pretty high. I'd think 30% would be more reasonable as the generally accepted standard. It could be done, but damn, 50%? Factor in other expenses like kids, commute, car, and it starts to add up in terms of what one is saving. Granted houses or property tend to be the single highest asset of a couple of individual, but hell, not saving a lot... unless you pay it off, sell the home at an increased price, and move elsewhere.

I guess on the bright side, jobs do pay way more there. Management level jobs or even director based jobs must be quite high there. NJ vs CA for example in terms of "X" position.

[mhays]

With no kids, car, or debt, 50% can be a piece of cake.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

First of all, Californians are used to spending 50% of disposable income on housing. Especially in San Diego, which IMHOP has possibly the best climate in North America and arguably the best on earth, there is plenty to do outdoors for close to free so that isn't as awful as it seems.

Then, when you are talking about buying anything more roomy than a studio condo, you are mostly talking about couples with 2 substantial incomes: $15,000 gross per month and up available.

Finally, at the prices you described, you are probably talking about either in downtown San Diego or in the 10 mile (or so) temperate belt near the ocean. People with less money necessarily look farther inland where prices are lower--a lot lower because in San Diego you don't have to go very far inland before you are in the Mojave Desert. FYI the Bay Area has a much larger temperate zone as does even LA. By the way, be it known that even close to the ocean, San Diego is desert. It averages, or so I've read, about 8 inches of rain per year which is less than Tucson at 12 inches. It's just that close to the water, it's much cooler than Tucson because of the effect of winds blowing ashore over all that cool water (on the west coast this is much more dramatic than on the east coast because the water is colder all year around and because the prevailing winds are off the water).

I'm going to disagree a little bit, but also understand exactly what you're saying. The built environment of San Diego is linear along the coast due to topography. L.A. goes much farther inland, because of the huge basin that is L.A. Greater L.A. goes even farther inland, again to the amount of developable land. The Valley cooks in the summertime - Glendale, hot af.

S.D. can't really go any farther east because of the mountains and nobody lives on the other side of those mountains in the desert. You're going to hit rural mountain towns with snow, before you get to the deserty desert.

Desert dwellers live in the Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Coachella Valley, there's really not much east of S.D. until you hit the farming city of El Centro, Calif. and Yuma, Ariz. Those are nice places if you like 118 degrees with wind [often a humid wind with the Gulf being about 50 miles away].

[mello]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

S.D. can't really go any farther east because of the mountains and nobody lives on the other side of those mountains in the desert. You're going to hit rural mountain towns with snow, before you get to the deserty desert.
].

This is why you see much of the SD metro single family home production being moved to Temecula/Murrieta/Wildomar just over the Riverside County line from SD County in the last 20 years. San Diego does still have some flat land left down by the border that is finally being utilized for residential. Also Ramona is in a fairly large valley but getting a high capacity roadway in to that Valley is really tough with the rugged topography west and south of Ramona.

Also Valley Center, an unincorporated area North and a tad east of Escondido has a decent amount of flat land that could be built but access to I-15 isn't great from many parts of that area and people are super NIMBYish there.

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Sorry if I can't cry for you "as a med student". "As a med student" I lived with six other people in an old house (in Durham, NC) that a guy had bought planning to fix up and flip but he didn't have the money to do that right away so he rented it to us. Trust me it can get "really hot" in Durham in summer as well . . . and humid. I bought a cheap window A/C and stuck it in the bedroom window.

Then, "as a resident" I made the generous salary of $6000 per year and could afford my own little garden one bedroom apartment (with central A/C) in Gainesville, FL. Such luxury! Or, it would have been if I were ever home.

Suffering, it seems, is part of medical education. By the way, "as a med student" how do you have the time to post here? About the only time I suspect I might have is in the middle of the night when on duty in the hospital and there were no crises.

Well, I wasn't really looking for pity. Being a student anywhere will force you to live with other people. I was just saying that living in California as a millennial relatively cheaply is possible if you can't afford the coast but still want access to it. I rather just have access to the coast and one day possibly buy out there than to move to another cheap state that doesn't fit my own lifestyle.


As for medical school and free time, I'm doing wards for the next few weeks. I will truly abandon this forum for weeks at a time once I get right into basic sciences in the end of August.

[Double L]

I think one thing this thread proves, is that California needs to make affordability a priority.