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Originally Posted by Eightball
I hope you are right. We shall see. Oftentimes these commuter rail projects have pretty low ridership, especially in places (like Florida) with low transit mode share.
Gotta start somewhere though, and hopefully there can be some synergy between this and AAF.
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Agreed. As someone from FL with a bit of hometown pride left, I want to see Sunrail succeed and be copied in Tampa and Jax, but I'm not holding my breath. Not sure what ridership expectations are, but along the even more congested 95 in one of the top 5 most densely populated urban corridors in the US I would say that ridership on the Tri-Rail between WPB and Miami is dismal and that the system is essentially a waste of money...15,000 riders along 72 miles? Direct connections to 3 major airports and several major employment centers, as well as direct connections/transfers to Metrorail? And then Metrorail - a system developed around the same time as BART and MARTA, in one of the most densely populated areas in the country, directly connecting several huge employment centers, three more modes of public transit including the FREE people mover downtown and Tri-Rail, and finally connecting several huge hospitals AND the airport, and yet not only has one of the lowest ridership numbers in the country, it has one of the lowest riders/mile in the country.
Caltrain and Tri-Rail were completed in the same year and traverse similar lengths across similarly dense and narrow urbanized areas. The former has 3x the ridership and ridership/mile than the latter. Having spent mucho tiempo in Miami and ridden Tri-Rail several times, it's not necessarily that Miami isn't dense enough or hasn't connected the system well or hasn't done TOD to the extent it should - it's a complete car culture in SoFla and all over FL and that's the only way to explain it.
Good luck to Sunrail. Unfortunately while I-4 is congested as hell (and about to get worse with more construction), DT Orlando and areas around stations aren't even the major employment centers. Lots of people who work in DT Orlando already live there. Otherwise you're working in a suburban office park north of the city or in the service industry south of the city, and there is no easy way for rail to really connect either employment center to dense residential areas where residents can walk to the train and then walk from train to office. Plus there's the whole "Orlando from April through October" thing where you're out of your mind if you want to walk around outside and you aren't at Disney or Universal or a pool.