National Political Polls Discussion

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Andy6

I doubt Trudeau had given two minutes' thought to the nitty-gritty of legalization when he made the promise in the first place - details aren't really his thing.

Requoted for truth.

JT is the anti-Trump, but in terms of his ability to parse through his legislative proposals and look for potential consequences to his actions, Justin and Donald could be twins.........

One thing JT isn't is a technocrat.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Requoted for truth.

JT is the anti-Trump, but in terms of his ability to parse through his legislative proposals and look for potential consequences to his actions, Justin and Donald could be twins.........

One thing JT isn't is a technocrat.

That's one of the most interesting contrasts between JT and Kathleen Wynne, in my opinion. A lot of people like to compare the two, but they're quite different, and this is one of the major ways. Wynne is very much a policy wonk and she thrives in policy.. you notice it whenever anyone interviews her or debates her.. the second the topic is policy details, she lights up and speaks with way more energy and excitement.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Yeah.. Patrick Brown of the Ontario PCs defeating Kathleen Wynne (the likely result in Ontario's election next year) is good news for JT and bad news for Scheer. Brown is very much a Red Tory.. heck he's on the record as being pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and pro-carbon tax, he associated mostly with Michael Chong during the federal Conservative leadership race, and he spends way more time complaining about government spending cuts than he does about taxes, which is a good hint about where his priorities will lie as Premier. This will make Scheer look more right-wing by comparison and thus cause discomfort to a lot of centrist and centre-right voters in the 905 regions, making it easier for Trudeau to hold onto his seats there. And furthermore.. Justin Trudeau's brand is reasonably popular among Ontarians. Kathleen Wynne's brand is not. Much of Scheer's gains in the polls in Ontario are likely a consequence of Kathleen Wynne's poor approval ratings more than anything else as a lot of people have a harder time keeping federal and provincial things separate these days (all the anti-Wynne social media groups post anti-Trudeau stuff just as often, for example). With Wynne gone, a lot of that sentiment will evaporate and it will be easier for Trudeau to regain support in the province.

I have to agree that if Patrick Brown and the PCs win a majority government in Ontario then it certainly would help the Trudeau Liberals. If Brown becomes Premier, most Ontarians will not like him as his party will be lucky to get 40% of the total votes. It will cause many NDP supporters to vote Liberal federally in 2019 just to make sure the CPC doesn't win seats.

BUT..........

We can't really make predictions until the election campaign begins. Brown has been PC leader for two years and most Ontarians have no idea who he is and he is proving to be a failure for many who learn about who he is. Besides having no platform at all, he seems intent on avoiding being questioned.

Brown is PRETENDING to be a red-Tory. His past voting record when part of the Harper government is now coming to light. And it wasn't that long ago that he made many statements that are opposite of what he says now and had strong endorsements from pro-life, religious (about sex-ed) and alt-right groups. That will come to haunt him soon. But it will be interesting to see if those things will be affect him during the election campaign and whether or not enough voters will believe the new Patrick Brown. He isn't Tim Hudak but will he fare better?

And Brown has flip-flopped on so many things, is very vague on most issues and uninteresting. There is a pretty large movement of conservative supporters right now who want him gone from the party due to nomination issues and him agreeing with the Liberals too much on policies.

Kathleen Wynne is one of the best campaigners out there. She can never be underestimated as we learned in 2014. And she will be very prepared to take on Brown.

[Acajack]

It is totally normal for a governing party to have a mid-mandate lull. I am still bullish on JT's chances in 2019.

If I am wrong and Canada goes back to Tories after just four years of pretty centrist Liberals, I think we will have to revisit the mythology about Canada not being very right wing. Especially west of the Ottawa River.

[Loco101]

Mid-mandate is usually a time when a governing party has a lull. But I really don't see much of one in the more accurate polls done by telephone.

I also don't see Andrew Scheer becoming interesting the way JT did. Scheer doesn't sound great in French and in English he doesn't have any charisma. Harper wasn't the most interesting person but he could certainly deliver a speech well and get his message across. Scheer hasn't been able to do that as of yet.

There is nothing I can see that would indicating the Trudeau Liberals are in trouble. I can certainly see them losing some seats but not yet enough to be in minority territory.

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Mid-mandate is usually a time when a governing party has a lull. But I really don't see much of one in the more accurate polls done by telephone.

I also don't see Andrew Scheer becoming interesting the way JT did. Scheer doesn't sound great in French and in English he doesn't have any charisma. Harper wasn't the most interesting person but he could certainly deliver a speech well and get his message across. Scheer hasn't been able to do that as of yet.

There is nothing I can see that would indicating the Trudeau Liberals are in trouble. I can certainly see them losing some seats but not yet enough to be in minority territory.

However, some politic analysts here in Québec says ''Sheer is like Harper but with charisma'' ...I can just imagine how low was considered Harper's Charisma now lol

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by FrAnKs

However, some politic analysts here in Québec says ''Sheer is like Harper but with charisma'' ...I can just imagine how low was considered Harper's Charisma now lol

He at least seems like a happier, bubblier and more approachable Harper. At the very least, he is inoffensive.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

He at least seems like a happier, bubblier and more approachable Harper. At the very least, he is inoffensive.

The public persona certainly seems one of "nice guy". I thought he showed a darker side, however, with his Omar Khadr grandstanding.

[ssiguy]

I don't think he showed a "darker side" but rather one that polls have shown is more in-line with what Canadians thought of the payout, including me. I'm not sure what to think of Sheer but he is no Harper and that's a great thing. Harper is a very angry and vindictive person and Sheer, at least to this point, doesn't seem to share those offensive qualities.

I do think JT will win next time as it's quite unusual for Canadians to turf a government after just one term especially a majority one. It seems to be that Canada is reverting back to it's pre-1980s days of when the Conservatives held the West except for parts of BC, Quebec and Atlantic are Liberal bastions and Ontario is also primarily Liberal except rural areas. The NDP also seems to be reverting back to it's traditional base in Ontario and BC with a few others scattered around.

[gunnar777]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't think he showed a "darker side" but rather one that polls have shown is more in-line with what Canadians thought of the payout, including me. I'm not sure what to think of Sheer but he is no Harper and that's a great thing. Harper is a very angry and vindictive person and Sheer, at least to this point, doesn't seem to share those offensive qualities.

I do think JT will win next time as it's quite unusual for Canadians to turf a government after just one term especially a majority one. It seems to be that Canada is reverting back to it's pre-1980s days of when the Conservatives held the West except for parts of BC, Quebec and Atlantic are Liberal bastions and Ontario is also primarily Liberal except rural areas. The NDP also seems to be reverting back to it's traditional base in Ontario and BC with a few others scattered around.

I think your analysis of the CPC leaders' respective public personas is quite accurate. Harper will always be remembered for being cold, aloof, and against government transparency. Politically, Scheer might not be remembered at all (in my opinion: here's hoping.) What surprises me about the CPC's choice of candidate was that they chose a leader who has personal beliefs that won't be winning back votes from a nation that is ever so slowly shifting back towards progressivism, and I believe those beliefs alone could easily cost them the election. As much as Harper was focused on redefining Canada as a low-tax, low-regulation all-resource nation, he himself wasn't really a "full-spectrum" conservative. Scheer is.
I see a few parallels between Mike Pence and Andrew Scheer.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by gunnar777

What surprises me about the CPC's choice of candidate was that they chose a leader who has personal beliefs that won't be winning back votes from a nation that is ever so slowly shifting back towards progressivism, and I believe those beliefs alone could easily cost them the election. As much as Harper was focused on redefining Canada as a low-tax, low-regulation all-resource nation, he himself wasn't really a "full-spectrum" conservative. Scheer is.
I see a few parallels between Mike Pence and Andrew Scheer.

I don't really see that (highlighted). I think it's likely the opposite, even if it's happening at a painstakingly, barely perceptible, slow pace.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I don't really see that (highlighted). I think it's likely the opposite, even if it's happening at a painstakingly, barely perceptible, slow pace.

I see a hardening of attitudes myself. Rural (and small town conservatism) versus urban progressivism. The only outlier is the Maritimes which is both small town and progressive (sort of a Canadian version of New England).

As such, the situation in Canada is not that much different than in the states, no matter how much we would like to think otherwise.

The main difference between the two countries is that by and large, Canada is a much more urban country than the US is. This trend will continue into the future and as such, Canada will always remain more progressive than the US.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I see a hardening of attitudes myself. Rural (and small town conservatism) versus urban progressivism. The only outlier is the Maritimes which is both small town and progressive (sort of a Canadian version of New England).

As such, the situation in Canada is not that much different than in the states, no matter how much we would like to think otherwise.

The main difference between the two countries is that by and large, Canada is a much more urban country than the US is. This trend will continue into the future and as such, Canada will always remain more progressive than the US.

I can see this too, though I think we can also expect the occasional nibble(s) from conservatism creeping even into the suburbs of the major cities.

In some elections this may be enough to tip the balance in favour of the Tories.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I can see this too, though I think we can also expect the occasional nibble(s) from conservatism creeping even into the suburbs of the major cities.

In some elections this may be enough to tip the balance in favour of the Tories.

Indeed the suburbs are the battlegrounds. They can swing both ways. If there is one part of the country that might be slowly sliding to conservativism, it is the suburbs.

[travis3000]

Andrew Scheer does not have what it takes to be PM, just no energy and he comes off as awkward. That's my opinion anyway. I can't see the country getting behind him. It's mid mandate right now, the federal Liberals have had a few blunders over the past couple months and voters are parking their vote with the Conservative brand right now in a temporary opposition.

My guess is still for a Liberal majority in 2019.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I see a hardening of attitudes myself. Rural (and small town conservatism) versus urban progressivism. The only outlier is the Maritimes which is both small town and progressive (sort of a Canadian version of New England).

As such, the situation in Canada is not that much different than in the states, no matter how much we would like to think otherwise.

The main difference between the two countries is that by and large, Canada is a much more urban country than the US is. This trend will continue into the future and as such, Canada will always remain more progressive than the US.

Don't forget that Northern Ontario is both socially and economically progressive. Most urban areas here tend to vote Liberal and rural areas NDP. Parts of rural Quebec and a number of small cities also tend to be overall left-wing.

[ssiguy]

That's much like SW Ont. Although home to Conservatives in most areas that is not the case in the cities where Windsor has always been an NDP bastion and London a Liberal one.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Fail to see how Canada isn't mostly progressive when the NDP + Liberal vote in pretty much every election always is much larger than the Conservative vote.

In fact without FPTP I doubt the cons would govern much at all.

Regardless however, Canada isn't much more progressive than the US at all, the US only skews further right due to the south and the larger percentage of americans who believe in the cancerous extremism of evangelicalism.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Fail to see how Canada isn't mostly progressive when the NDP + Liberal vote in pretty much every election always is much larger than the Conservative vote.

In fact without FPTP I doubt the cons would govern much at all.

Regardless however, Canada isn't much more progressive than the US at all, the US only skews further right due to the south and the larger percentage of americans who believe in the cancerous extremism of evangelicalism.

I think the very most liberal pockets of America would be just left of centre in Canada. Even right wing parties in Canada have positions that would be dismissed as socialist in America.

We just don't have as deeply an embedded fear of liberalism, we do not link personal ownership of guns to a sense of freedom, and - at least here in NL (and I assume most of Canada) - our culture developed emphasizing the common good above individualism, which is really a luxury few can afford.

But things are getting worse. Harper did a lot of the things Trump is doing first, especially putting ideology above fact and actively targeting science and data.

Part of me worries that a century from now when historians look back, it'll be Obama and Trudeau that are the anomalies, not the Bushes, and Harpers and Trumps.

[1overcosc]

I think the real root cause of the whole Canada being more left than the US thing comes down to pretty much entirely 2 factors:

1) Canadians are way less scared of government than Americans are (making us less fiscally conservative)
2) We don't have the "jesus-freak" politicians that Americans deal with (making us less socially conservative)

What's fascinating is that with those two factors, if you go back, the reason why they exist is largely a consequence of being "more British". With the first, we kept that British trust of authority whereas the Americans based their entire country on rejecting it. With the second.. stems from the fact that religious non-conformers (ie. the non-Anglicans) made up a huge chunk of the original migrants from Britain the USA, whereas in Canada British migrants were mostly from the establishment churches.