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Originally Posted by llamaorama
It sounds to me like these studies are defining gentrification and displacement in a particular way, which doesn't line up with how the general public, media, and political and social activists define it.
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So I can see why you would think that, but again, it's just not reality. There may be the occasional reasonably healthy area that improves significantly, but that's not what people are talking about when the refer to gentrification either. I think the areas you are referring to are areas which were previously "working class" so not totally impoverished, but also not middle class either. These areas may appear fully utilized to the naked eye because they are indeed extremely lively places, often livlier than gentrified areas, but that doesn't mean the housing stock is anywhere near maximial utilization. You see the street life, but you don't notice the 1 out of every ten buildings that's slipped into uninhabitable condition. You don't notice that some buildings have one or two vacant units in them that the owners have given up on bringing into habitable shape ever since that pipe burst 4 years ago despite all the other units in the property being just fine. These things exist in working class and poor neighborhoods. If they didn't exist then they wouldn't be working class or poor, they would be already gentrified.
Chicago's SW side is a great example of this. Pilsen and Little Village are pristine areas of vintage housing that looks great and have insanely vibrant street scapes loaded with businesses and pedestrians, but if you really look at the buildings on each block you will really that "holy cow, the last three buildings on this block are totatally empty except the occasional Satan's Disciples gang party." That's where the majority of gentrification is occurring. The rest of it is happening when long time owners (who are almost always long time residents) get fed up with the grind of trying to keep a building that hasn't been updated in 100 years operational. That's not exactly displacement either when a previously working class immigrant family gets a high six or seven figure payday for their slowly crumbling building.
Again, I renovate buildings in areas like this for a living. I made a video a while back about one of my projects and it ended up getting over 100k views on Facebook as the anti gentrification people went nuts. Their main complaint was that I said the area was a good place to invest because there are lots of "underutilized" properties. And they were all like "Little Village isn't underutilized, there's people living here already". Which of course is a total head scratcher when the context of the video was me showing how I took a beautiful corner building that was under construction after being vacant for two decades, got a stop work order for having no permits, then was foreclosed on, then stripped by scrapers, then sent to demo court and was about to be demolished before I stepped up and bought it for a dollar and then poured $650k into it restoring it to operating condition. The other two buildings I showed under construction in the video were also vacant (except for one holdout tenant who I paid $2500 and moved into another more affordable building I own nearby) for a decade and then burned (also setting a 3rd building next door on fire) after homeless squatters broke in and caused a fire. THAT is displacment, the condition of vacancy caused three families to be forced from their homes in a dangerous fire. My renovations caused a net increase of 5 units in just those two buildings. My building i saved from demo court caused another increase of 6 units. That means a total net increase of 11 units on the block from just my actions alone. Again, meanwhile the buildings having been left to sit dangerously vacant caused a fire that displaced 3 families.
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To most people, gentrification means a populated and healthy neighborhood experiencing a drop in the absolute number of affordable units available due to high demand and scarcity. This causes people who choose not to renew their leases and also makes the neighborhood inaccessible to low and middle income households. The reason why this is a problem is because our civic, social, and physical infrastructure can't keep up with these changes. For example, people who used to need transit to get around can no longer afford to live close to it.
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That's the thing though, most poor and working class people don't need access to transit in Chicago, they need access to unskilled manufacturing jobs in the inner suburbs. All you need to see is the capacity utilization of train lines in these areas. Again, take the SW side of Chicago. The line (Pink Line) serving this area only runs 4 car train sets and those still don't fill up. That's despite this being one of the densest parts of town. Meanwhile the Blue Line on the rapidly gentrified NW side has seen 100%+ ridership increases and is packed to the gills at rush hour despite 8 car sets.
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This makes sense, but not in a way that somehow disproves that gentrification isn't an issue.
In an ungentrified, affordable neighborhood, there could be a large number of low income people living in market rate housing. Some percentage of these people are going to experience personal turbulence(a couple breaks up, a job is lost, etc) and they are going to have to have to forfeit their lease or get evicted because they can't make rent. Every time one of these people has to move, it adds to the displacement tally. But this isn't displacement caused by gentrification.
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But that's just it, this HAS been studied and people in non gentrifying places are forced to move far more often. You are discounting things like I mentioned above like living in a perfectly fine house next to an abandoned building and then BOOM your house is gone because the next door building caught fire from neglect. You also are ignoring the other issues of disinvestment where units just gradually become uninhabitable. This can be stemed by occasionally doing a half assed renovation, but if you don't fix the building systems the unit will go bad again when a pipe bursts or something. Again, that's displacement resulting from disinvestment. So when people come in and start treating these hazards (vacant and dilapidated buildings) as opportunities you massively decrease displacement. You can say "that's a tiny percentage of the buildings" but it's not. Just on my little block alone there are four vacant lots. There would be eight or nine now if I hadn't bought and rehabbed those buildings. On a block with 24 lots that's going from 15% vacant lots to 33% vacant lots. Now extrapolate that across entire neighborhoods and tell me that's a small number of buildings.
By the way, I own two of the four vacant lots on the block as I picked them up from $5k each when I bought the last package of properties. If prices ever rise high enough, I'm not going to waste my time buying occupied functioning buildings for $100s of thousands, I'm just going to build a building on each lot FURTHER increasing the supply of housing and reducing displacement. And this is just me, on just one side of the street, on just one block. Over a dozen units returned to the market. I know it's happening on all sorts of blocks around me because I see the vacant buildings being bought up and gutted. They aren't displacing residents unless you include gangbangers party houses or junkies who break into buildings and eventually set them on fire...