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  #8981  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2018, 9:09 PM
d_jeffrey d_jeffrey is offline
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I doubt that Canada's big cities will ever get affordable for the masses again. It's just the reality of big cities. Stopping immigration and foreign-owned property won't happen in my lifetime.
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  #8982  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2018, 10:19 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I think the potential devastation of a drop in property prices in Vancouver is typically exaggerated, although there would definitely be winners and losers. The potential losers (real estate agents, speculators, developers, politicians, people running luxury businesses) have been by far the loudest in the media. These are the winners under the current order and the rest of us are the losers.

A lot of property owners would lose wealth on paper but survive just fine. These are the people who have houses that would go from $2M to $1M. Some of them would have to scale back their retirement, but then again I wonder how great it is for the city to have a generation retiring during what would be their peak earning years. That's what housing did for people who were able to buy a detached house before 2000 or so.

Another factor is that a lot of businesses struggle to grow here because of the high cost of real estate. Skilled workers tend to move away and businesses have a hard time finding space.

If well-located housing here were used to house people who work nearby rather than serving as an investment for people from overseas traffic would potentially be a bit better too.
It’s not just struggling businesses that lose out. My brother works for one of the major universities and they’re always losing people. And it’s not just new hires but long term residents who see they can cash out their house in Metro Vancouver, get a comparable job anywhere else in Canada for the same pay and live like kings
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  #8983  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2018, 6:07 AM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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Even UBC has stated that within 10 years the school may have to shut down programs and perhaps even departments because they simply can`t get any new profs. As the Boomers retire there are simply not enough highly educated younger people willing to work in Vancouver. This is especially true at UBC as it is in the extreme Western part of the city and there is no such thing as even a shack within 8km for less than $2 million. Even getting a condo for less than $1 million would be a challenge. That means long commutes and people don`t go to university for 8 years for the luxury of being able to buy a 1 bedroom condo with a half hour commute. Things are already so bad that UBC already offers subsidized rent to potential profs. Yes you read that correctly, in Vancouver a prof`s salary still qualifies you for subsidized rent.
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  #8984  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2018, 6:57 AM
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urbandreamer urbandreamer is offline
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Maybe it's time for Nanaimo to become a major city?
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  #8985  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2018, 12:31 PM
kwoldtimer kwoldtimer is offline
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Maybe it's time for Nanaimo to become a major city?

Commute by high speed ferry? It would only take about an hour or so.
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  #8986  
Old Posted Yesterday, 11:39 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
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If only Canadian politicians were so bold and attuned to the needs of their citizens:

New Zealand Passes Law to Crack Down on Foreign Home Buyers

New Zealand’s government will ban foreigners from buying residential property, making good on its promise to crack down on offshore speculators who it says are partly to blame for spiraling house prices.

The Overseas Investment Amendment Bill, which places limitations on foreign purchasers, passed its final reading in parliament Wednesday in Wellington. The restrictions will take effect within two months of the law receiving formal assent from the Governor General, the symbolic head of state, Associate Finance Minister David Parker said in a statement.

“This government believes that New Zealanders should not be outbid by wealthier foreign buyers,” said Parker, who shepherded the legislation through parliament. “Whether it’s a beautiful lakeside or oceanfront estate, or a modest suburban house, this law ensures that the market for our homes is set in New Zealand not on the international market.”...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...gn-home-buyers
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  #8987  
Old Posted Yesterday, 11:43 PM
milomilo milomilo is online now
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I liked this quote from that article:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Article
“This government believes that New Zealanders should not be outbid by wealthier foreign buyers,” said Parker, who shepherded the legislation through parliament. “Whether it’s a beautiful lakeside or oceanfront estate, or a modest suburban house, this law ensures that the market for our homes is set in New Zealand not on the international market.”
Damn right.
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  #8988  
Old Posted Today, 1:33 AM
Pinus Pinus is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Actually we're doing the opposite - Canada's particularly welcoming of questionable Chinese capital compared to its peers, which is why Vancouver is in a league of its own compared to Seattle or SF or even Australian cities. We could change that if we wanted, but it seems we don't.

In our defense, the effect on Vancouver could easily be devastating, so I can understand why our elected officials are being very careful about it. Even Toronto would be greatly impacted.
After living down under, it seems that the Australian cities of Sydney and Melbourne, and the NZ city of Auckland are in the exact same league as Vancouver. Its the same scenario, where Chinese investors are buying up real estate property in droves, creating the unaffordable housing markets you see today. It really seems like Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been targeted specifically by Chinese investors for one reason or another. Perhaps because of lax foreign ownership policies and regulations? Perhaps, although that is changing now. I really haven't heard of the same kinds of mass Chinese real estate investments frenzies in the USA, UK or other Western countries as far as I can tell. CANZ really stand out on a global scale in that regard.

Oh, and it's defenCe and coloUr
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  #8989  
Old Posted Today, 2:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Pinus View Post
After living down under, it seems that the Australian cities of Sydney and Melbourne, and the NZ city of Auckland are in the exact same league as Vancouver. Its the same scenario, where Chinese investors are buying up real estate property in droves, creating the unaffordable housing markets you see today. It really seems like Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been targeted specifically by Chinese investors for one reason or another. Perhaps because of lax foreign ownership policies and regulations? Perhaps, although that is changing now. I really haven't heard of the same kinds of mass Chinese real estate investments frenzies in the USA, UK or other Western countries as far as I can tell. CANZ really stand out on a global scale in that regard.

Oh, and it's defenCe and coloUr
With the US, it's just so huge that it's difficult to actually influence it. Comparatively, the Canadian, Australian, and especially the New Zealand markets are tiny. One or 2 major cities being impacted can skew all sorts of national statistics and cause at least some level of national contagion if something dramatic were to occur.

New York is very much one of the Alpha international cities though and pulls the wealthy from all over the world along with plenty of the US's own wealthiest, and it shows with how expensive it is. However, New York holds what, 5% of the US population? vs Vancouver and Toronto holding over 25% of Canada's. Should Montreal get pulled in, you're almost at 40%.

As for London, it's not as much wealthy Chinese snapping up properties... But rather wealthy Eastern European Oligarchs, so, same effect, different source.

But it is understandable/sensible. It's really about the wealthy from unstable countries/countries with dictatorial-leaning systems, where if you wind up on the wrong side of leadership, everything could disappear - including themselves - seeking a stable law-and-order driven market with lax enough rules to park some of their wealth (and potentially flee to if necessary). It just screws over the local markets it happens in.
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  #8990  
Old Posted Today, 5:23 AM
Pinus Pinus is offline
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Originally Posted by Nathan View Post
With the US, it's just so huge that it's difficult to actually influence it. Comparatively, the Canadian, Australian, and especially the New Zealand markets are tiny. One or 2 major cities being impacted can skew all sorts of national statistics and cause at least some level of national contagion if something dramatic were to occur.

New York is very much one of the Alpha international cities though and pulls the wealthy from all over the world along with plenty of the US's own wealthiest, and it shows with how expensive it is. However, New York holds what, 5% of the US population? vs Vancouver and Toronto holding over 25% of Canada's. Should Montreal get pulled in, you're almost at 40%.

As for London, it's not as much wealthy Chinese snapping up properties... But rather wealthy Eastern European Oligarchs, so, same effect, different source.

But it is understandable/sensible. It's really about the wealthy from unstable countries/countries with dictatorial-leaning systems, where if you wind up on the wrong side of leadership, everything could disappear - including themselves - seeking a stable law-and-order driven market with lax enough rules to park some of their wealth (and potentially flee to if necessary). It just screws over the local markets it happens in.
Right, but I am only specifically referring to the massive Chinese influence. I have no doubt that there is Chinese investment all over the world in real estate, and I have no doubt that other areas of the world are influenced by significant foreign investment by other ethnic groups.

But in the cases of Australia, Canada and New Zealand, it does appear that it is the Chinese specifically that are negatively influencing real estate markets like nowhere else in the world, including the USA.
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  #8991  
Old Posted Today, 5:46 AM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
Commute by high speed ferry? It would only take about an hour or so.
people do commute from Nanaimo to work in Vancouver.

I live in Coquitlam and its still pretty crazy. The 4 houses next to our apartment building sold earlier this year as a lot assembly and each home owner got $4 million. The one guy said he won the lottery and was going to take early retirement. The whole street I am on is either sold now or going up for sale its all been rezoned by the City so its just going to change from SFH to towers and condos. So far there is a plan for a 17 story and a 6 story replacing 4 houses.
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  #8992  
Old Posted Today, 7:17 AM
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Metro Vancouver real estate prices are 65% overvalued

Glacier Media Real Estate

By Joannah Connolly - August 15, 2018

Metro Vancouver real estate is valued at 65 per cent higher than it should be, based on local incomes, according to a new global house price index by The Economist.

The U.K.-based financial publication’s research team found that the region’s home prices have risen by more than 60 per cent over the past five years.

In terms of real estate value versus median household incomes, The Economist reported that Metro Vancouver was the fifth most overvalued of 22 major global cities studied, after Hong Kong, Auckland in New Zealand, Paris, and Brussels in Belgium.

Vancouver is followed by London, UK and Sydney, Australia, both of which were deemed overvalued by 50 per cent or above.



On a country-by-country basis, Canada was deemed the third most overvalued country in the world for real estate prices, at 56 per cent overvalued, after New Zealand and Australia.

Check out The Economist’s interactive graph, which shows how overvalued the real estate in each of 20 countries has been since the 1970s.

...

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/2...es-overvalued/
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  #8993  
Old Posted Today, 7:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Pinus View Post
Right, but I am only specifically referring to the massive Chinese influence. I have no doubt that there is Chinese investment all over the world in real estate, and I have no doubt that other areas of the world are influenced by significant foreign investment by other ethnic groups.

But in the cases of Australia, Canada and New Zealand, it does appear that it is the Chinese specifically that are negatively influencing real estate markets like nowhere else in the world, including the USA.
And I'm saying the US is too large to be influenced. It might be hit with a similar dollar value to the other three (or even more), but it's such a vast market, that it's a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. The US has the most billionaires/millionaires in the world and still has the largest GDP (and a much, much larger GDP per capita than China). And to add on, the wealth of the US is concentrated in the places a foreign buyer would want anyway (cleave off your Alabamas, Wisconsins, Wyomings, Idahos, Montanas, etc from dragging down the averages)... It's just not possible for the über rich of China to have the same impact; it's a completely different scale.

Why London seems to be more the playground of the Eastern European Elite rather than Chinese, I don't know. More old wealth? Less upward potential?
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  #8994  
Old Posted Today, 8:31 AM
Pinus Pinus is offline
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Originally Posted by Nathan View Post
And I'm saying the US is too large to be influenced. It might be hit with a similar dollar value to the other three (or even more), but it's such a vast market, that it's a rounding error in the grand scheme of things. The US has the most billionaires/millionaires in the world and still has the largest GDP (and a much, much larger GDP per capita than China). And to add on, the wealth of the US is concentrated in the places a foreign buyer would want anyway (cleave off your Alabamas, Wisconsins, Wyomings, Idahos, Montanas, etc from dragging down the averages)... It's just not possible for the über rich of China to have the same impact; it's a completely different scale.

Why London seems to be more the playground of the Eastern European Elite rather than Chinese, I don't know. More old wealth? Less upward potential?
Fair enough. But regardless of exchange rates, population sizes, economies of scales, etc., I'm emphasising that the three countries I've mentioned have been hardest hit by the Chinese on a global scale, regardless of the reasons
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