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Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 4:56 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
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Canada 2067

A little inspired by some of the discussions in the "Canada: 1 Billion" thread, how do you envision Canada to be once it's 200th birthday rolls around, or how do you hope it to be?

What will our economy be like? How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?

What will our demographic makeup look like? Will we become a slow growth nation as the UN predicts or take in even more immigrants to sustain our economy?

How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?

Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?

What will the relationship between First Nations and non-First Nations look like?

What will be our biggest challenge in the next five decades?

Sorry for all the "essay" questions, just brainstorming!
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Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 7:39 PM
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Alternative futures. I'll go with one of the many different variations of what I would like to see.

"Canada" is a term that is rarely used these days. Most people, even in casual speech, say "The Canadian Federation". It's similar to the European Union in many ways - there's a Parliament in Ottawa that consolidates shared efforts on mutual concerns, but the Federation's members are fully independent countries - Cascadia, Alberta (where farming technology has long since emptied out the conservative countryside and where the liberal cities of Calgary and Edmonton now dominate every aspect of politics), Agassiz, which includes much of Northern Ontario, Ontario (which is practically one huge city at this point, on equal footing with New York and Mexico City in terms of North American dominance), Atlantica (the Maritimes), and Newfoundland. Quebec, which has for years included Labrador, is something like Norway - not a full member of the Canadian Federation, but intimately linked to it, freedom of movement, adheres to its laws to ensure free trade, etc.

The population overall is closing in on 100 million. The largest cities are:

1. Toronto (18 million)
2. Vancouver
3. Montreal
4. Calgary
5. Halifax (3 million)

Although we don't burn fossil fuels for energy anymore, we still use them for materials for all our fancy future goods. Newfoundland has a population of close to 2 million, with half in St. John's, another 500,000 on the Bonavista Peninsula, and several cities or roughly 100K on the Northwest Avalon (Carbonear), West Coast (Corner Brook) and Burin Peninsula (Grand Bank). The big box store/subdivision communities strung along the TCH through the centre of the island have long since declined.

Newfoundland maintains most of its quirks, and has added new ones. It has a new official flag (the tricolour). Its time zone is now 1.5 hours ahead of Halifax. Oil and gas, fishing (over which it has sole and complete jurisdiction), tourism, mining, sustainable forestry, aquaculture, and its entertainment industry are its main economic activities. The Loonie is legal currency, but it also has its own - operating a bit like the Czech Republic does today. Purchasing power is comparable to the other countries in the Canadian Federation even though it is poorer (I genuinely believe this is necessary for our type of cultural richness). So you work a week in St. John's, and you can buy pretty much what someone who works a week in Calgary can buy there. But if you exchange your salary to the Loonie and take it to Calgary, you can't buy half as much.
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Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?
I don't think the idea of water as an ultra-valuable resource is plausible. There are places today that desalinate water at a cost in the ballpark of a dollar per cubic meter. Canadians consumer 1/3 of that per day on average given today's rock bottom prices. I think this is an upper bound on the future cost of water in coastal locations around the world. It's possible the cost of desalination will drop hugely from here.

Quote:
How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?
This seems really hard to predict. Right now we're headed for a slow down because we have done such a bad job of building new infrastructure. The big cities are becoming miserable places to live in compared to what they used to be.

Predictions about urban development today made 20-30 years ago were almost all wrong. Most people though that better technology and transportation would cause people to spread out and live in rural areas. But instead it's gotten harder to travel around and crony capitalism means that you're better off living as close to rich patrons as possible.

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Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?
From a global perspective, less important. Many other countries will grow economically at a much faster rate. We will gain prominence relative to places like Western Europe but lose it relative to (more populated) places like Africa. I think the US will continue to lose political power and China's growth will slow as it converges with richer countries.
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Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
A little inspired by some of the discussions in the "Canada: 1 Billion" thread, how do you envision Canada to be once it's 200th birthday rolls around, or how do you hope it to be?

(1) What will our economy be like? How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?

(2) What will our demographic makeup look like? Will we become a slow growth nation as the UN predicts or take in even more immigrants to sustain our economy?

(3) How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?

(4) Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?

(5) What will the relationship between First Nations and non-First Nations look like?

(6) What will be our biggest challenge in the next five decades?

Sorry for all the "essay" questions, just brainstorming!
The realistic take (or Debbie Downer take):

1. Fresh water, despite being essential to life, will not be out greatest resource. The problem is that the energy it requires to move any bulk amount of it to an area that would need it in quantity would dwarf simply desalinizing the 95% of the rest of the water on the planet, which is much more readily accessible. Even to move it within the continent would require a huge amount of energy on the order of thousands of megawatts to push it to where it would be needed - the US Southwest.

The future of oil is murky as we trend away from fossil fuels, but I still believe it will play a part in life.

Canada's economy will continue to drift away from value-added products, unfortunately. The 20th century idea that Canada can competitively produce high-value products will be but an aberration. Things like the Blackberry, Bombardier CSeries (now Airbus A220!) and CANDU nuclear power plants to name a few will simply be historical footnotes. Aside from the industries that are protected and the cockroach-like enduringness of icons like Tim Hortons to serve the domestic market, Canada will be but a small niche in the globalized world and a producer of raw materials, like a larger version of New Zealand.

2. The baby boom will be all but over. The drag of growth due to high death rates will mean our population will probably be around 50-60 million. Immigration will continue, but we'll get pickier with who we admit. There probably will be demographic bias towards those of Pakistani, Indian and Chinese heritage due to the sheer size of their countries, the presence of existing family and how they tend to be better aligned with what we need for immigration. Africa remains a wild card - can it become a place that takes part in the world economy or does strife leave it isolated?

3. Our largest cities will be larger, but the surrounding satellite cities will be the big growth stories. Small town Canada, despite being the last holdouts, will likely see an increase in diversity of residents, especially as second, third and fourth generation Canadians view themselves more as Canadian and are willing to explore the country.

4. Canada's relative importance will decline. We've been riding on our reputation since the mid-1970s with respect to international commitments (Afghanistan an exception). The Canada that fought WWII, Korea and did major peacekeeping operations will have faded. We've had some small victories (banning land mines, cluster munitions) but we're a non-player at the UN. The appetite for large scale military operations - even in peacekeeping form - is just not part of Canada's makeup.

Economically, we'll still be a first world country, but our total economic output will pale in comparison to countries who might be second-world, but have much larger populations. While part of the G8, places like the US, India and China will rule the roost economically. Africa, as mentioned above, will be a wildcard depending on how stable governments are.

5. The trauma of the residential schools will and the associated problems will remain. Destroying a culture will have generational casualties hundreds of years down the road. The damage can be mitigated if the governments of Canada make a concerted effort to bridge the gap, but the half-assed approach will yield us half-assed results. A serious commitment to breaking the cycle of poverty without being overbearing (a fine line, I know) along with improvements in the quality of life on remote reserves (clean drinking water!) would help.

6. The debt binge the world is going on as our population ages. A number of major jurisdictions in the world (Japan and the US, most notably) are running huge deficits and piling up debt when they should be saving towards a future of higher healthcare expenses and pension payouts. If a major shock comes to these economies, the loss of faith in the credit of them will be devastating. Either they'll have to default or markedly cut spending and raise taxes in such a manner that will likely not be acceptable to their populations. It will be ugly. Canada will be somewhat better prepared (maybe not some provinces), but that's cold comfort when you're tied closely to the much larger ship going down.

The overall take: barring an economic catastrophe (i.e. US debt default), Canada will remain one of the best places in the world to live. However, the erosion of our competitiveness will hurt life in the future. I'd call us 'fat and happy' today, while a large chunk of the world is hungry and willing to work hard. We may be in for a rude surprise should the demand for what makes life easy (i.e. our resources) takes a hit.

Last edited by wave46; Jul 20, 2018 at 12:06 AM.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 12:49 AM
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I doubt Halifax will get that big by 2067.

Biggest cities will be the same six as currently. They will all be bigger than they are now.

At the same time, some cities will be smaller than they are now, at least in Ontario. Toronto, Ottawa, Kitchener, Hamilton, and London will continue to grow, but there will be serious issues with the rest of the province. Cities like Kingston and Sudbury will be struggling.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 12:54 AM
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Canada in 2067


1. Canada will not only remain one of the world's wealthiest nations but will become a more dominant economy both in the West and globally. Our GDP will pass Italy, France, and the UK but get passed by Indonesia and Mexico. In other words, we'll move up to 9th largest economy in the world and 3rd largest in the West after the US and Germany.

Canada will become a dominant force in technology and produce a slew of global technology heavyweights. Bombardier will evolve into an aerospace giant on par with Airbus, and Canada will be home to 2 top 10 auto companies. The Toronto-Waterloo technology corridor will become the 2nd most dominant after Silicon Valley while Montreal, Vancouver, and Edmonton all crack the global top 20. Oil and gas will be much smaller industries.

2. Canada's population will double to 75 million people. The largest religious denomination will be 'Atheist' with 60% of the population falling into this category. The rest will be split rather evenly between Muslim, Christian, and Hindu. 35% of Canadians will be foreign born with ethnic makeup roughly as follows. 45% European, 15% east Asian, 15% south Asian, 15% Black, 10% latin American. An explosion in the prairie Hutterite population makes German the only European language to see a large increase in speakers.

3. Greater Toronto Hamilton (15 million) remains the most populous urban area. Montreal (8 million), Vancouver (7 million), Calgary (6 million), Edmonton (6 million), Ottawa (2.2 million), KW-Guelph (2 milion), Winnipeg (2 million), Quebec City (1.8 million), and Halifax (1.5 million) rounding out the top 10 'urban areas'.

Victoria, Kelowna, Nanaimo, Saskatoon, Regina, Windsor, Moncton, Whitehorse, and Yellowknife will all be more important cities than they are today. Yukon will gain provincial status while Ontario will split into 3 provinces.

4. Canada will become a more powerful country in the world as climate change redraws the global pecking order. Our agricultural belt stretches to Yellowknife, summers become hotter and winters become milder. Canada replaces the US as the #1 choice for immigrants/refugees around the world. Our military budget swells to 3% of GDP, we militarize our north, and we are the global #1 in AI, advanced materials, and space mining. Our cultural industries mature and we become one of the world's largest exporters of film, television, music, design, etc.

5. The culture and languages of Aboriginal people are resuscitated and they're no longer considered marginalized. The aboriginal people become fully integrated into society and hold many positions of power/influence within Canada. We've long ditched the monarchy and elect our first aboriginal PM. She's a Blackfoot from southern Alberta.

6. Canada's biggest challenge 2018-2067 will be the continuing battle to keep up with climate change, increased prevalence/intensity of natural disasters, and a mass of climate refugees landing on our shores from all directions.
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Last edited by isaidso; Jul 20, 2018 at 1:16 AM.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 12:55 AM
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The weather patterns will have increased by then, by the Great Lakes it'll be more like the weather in Kentucky with the occasional tornado threats.

Lake Superior will have the Great Lakes weather of today, and Halifax would be like the Carolina beaches in the summer with palm trees along the coast.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 1:30 AM
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With growth solely only fueled by immigration as Canadians outside of our First Nations population have stagnant birthrates Canada will see (along with the West) growth slowdown.

Immigration won't be the golden goose it was as emerging nations offer more opportunities than the West.

The Boomers aging and passing thier time will have significant impact on social services, healthcare, and the economy as a whole as they (still) control the majority of mainstreet wealth in the form of assets (housing) and still control the majority of small to medium businesses. Also, the impacts again on social services. The Boomers will test and put the Canadian healthcare and CPP system to the test, as a result I don't expect these to be around in thier current forms when Canada turns 200.

Canada at 200 will be 50 million.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 1:40 AM
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CPP will be fine, as will everything else. The prime years of the boomers are at CPP claim age right now - numbers will start to decline in 5 years or so. (1953 birth years are 65 now).

Canada as a whole will be much more populated than it is today - Toronto is going to be a true mega city at that point.

Weather will be warmer and with more extremes.

Canada will continue to be one of the wealthiest and best places to live in the world, even if other nations start to catch up.

It's international presence will be stronger - but in a stronger playing field. We will start to be considered roughly equal to those like France and the U.K. - with a slightly smaller population and similar GDPs. As others have mentioned, other nations will have stronger positions but it's difficult to know how much.

The problem is that 2067 is 49 years from now - that's an awful long time to predict. Think back to what people of 1969 would have predicted 2018 would look like.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 2:59 AM
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Basing this off of past demographics and growth, Canada will have a population of approximately 60,000,000

provincially, Ontario's population will be around 22,000,000. Quebec will be about 14,000,000.
B.C. will be about 9,000,000, Alberta will be about 7,000,000 and Saskatchewan will have about 1,500,000 and Manitoba will have about 2,000,000.
P.E.I. will be around 270,000, Nova Scotia will be about 1,250,000 and New Brunswick and Newfoundland will both be about 1,000,000.

the Northwest Territories will have about 100,000. the Yukon will have about 75,000 and Nunavut will have about 60,000. Though, at this time maybe one of the territories will have moved on to become a province. In this case, they'd have to rename the Northwest Territories.

Moving on to cities (metropolitan areas)

with the current largest cities. The Greater Toronto Area will have grown to about 10,000,000, with Greater Montreal having about 7,000,000 and Metro/Greater Vancouver having about 5,000,000.

in Atlantic Canada, Halifax will have grown to about 700,000, St. John's will have 400,000, Saint John and Moncton will both have about 250,000 with Fredericton being around 150,000 and Charlottetown will have around 100,000.

in Southwestern Ontario, Kitchener-Waterloo will have grown to about 1,000,000, London will have about 800,000 and Windsor will have 600,000.

In Northern Ontario, Sudbury will have a population of about 300,000 and Thunder Bay will have about 250,000

Hamilton will have 1,200,000, Ottawa-Gatineau will have 2,500,000, and Quebec City will have 1,300,000.

in the prairies, Winnipeg will have about 1,200,000, Regina and Saskatoon will both about about 500,000, Calgary and Edmonton will both have around 2,500,000, Red Deer will have about 250,000 and Fort McMurray will have about 200,000.

in B.C., Victoria will have about 700,000, Kelowna will have about 400,000, and Nanaimo will have about 250,000.

in the territories, Yellowknife and Whitehorse will both have around 50,000 and Iqaluit will have about 20,000.

Last edited by Odyssey; Jul 20, 2018 at 3:13 AM.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 3:27 AM
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By 2050, Canada will have 50 million people.

500K+ Cities (CMA)
1. Toronto – 8.5M
2. Montreal – 6.2M
3. Vancouver – 4.25M (Lower Mainland BC)
4. Calgary – 2.75M
5. Edmonton – 2.2M
6. Ottawa—Gatineau – 2.2M
7. Waterloo – 1.1M (includes Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo and Guelph)
8. Winnipeg – 1M
9. Quebec – 1M
10. Hamilton – 1M
11. Victoria – 0.6M
12. Halifax – 0.6M
13. Oshawa – 0.6M
14. West London – 0.6M (London's new name)
15. Niagara – 0.6M

Provinces, Territories and Ottawa:
1. Ontario – 16M (adjusted to reflect independence of Northern Ontario and Ontario-side of Ottawa-Gatineau)
2. Quebec – 10.4M (adjusted to reflect independence of Inuit regions and Quebec-side of Ottawa-Gatineau metropolitan region) (officially French)
3. Alberta – 6.7M
4. British Columbia – 6M (adjusted to reflect independence of Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii)
5. Maritime Union – 2.4M (adjusted to reflect unification of The Maritime provinces) (officially bilingual)
6. Ottawa – 2.2M (now a territory/province/district of its own) (officially bilingual)
7. Manitoba – 1.5M
8. Saskatchewan – 1.4M
9. Vancouver Island – 1.1M (now a province)
10. Newfoundland – 600K (adjusted to reflect independence of Labrador)
11. Huron – 600K (Northeastern Ontario is now a province) (officially bilingual)
12. Lakehead – 300K (Northwestern Ontario is now a province)
13. Yukon – 100K (in consideration for becoming a province)
14. Haida Gwaii – 50K (new territory for island off the coast of BC)
15. Northwest Territories – 50K (adjusted to reflect independence of Inuit regions)
16. Nunavut – 50K
17. Labrador – 35K (adjusted to reflect independence of Inuit regions)
18. Nunavik – 20K (new Inuit territory carved out of Quebec)
19. Nunatsiavut – 5K (new Inuit territory carved out of Labrador)
20. Inuvialuit – 5K (new Inuit territory carved out of Arctic Yukon and NWT)

Roughly 40% of Canadians will be visible minorities, and 5% will be indigenous peoples. 55% will be of European origin, including a solid number of recent immigrants from Europe.

Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton are European plurality rather than European majority. Winnipeg becomes a mecca for indigenous peoples. Winnipeg's Southeast Asian population, Toronto's South Asian population and Vancouver's East Asian population become significantly more substantial and comprise a core part of their city's demographics.

Last edited by saffronleaf; Jul 20, 2018 at 3:44 AM.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 3:39 AM
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Fun thread idea

"What will our economy be like? How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?"

in 2067 most jobs will be automated so most Canadians will likely be receiving some form of economic wealth redistribution, if this isn't the case than Capitalism will have collapsed decades before 2067 leaving most western nations in economic ruins, many will have gone through major violent uprisings and will see crime and poverty become untenably bad.

If we do still have an economy it will be even more based around resources than now, since climate change will have decimated the climate and environment and we will have eroded our available natural resources, Canada will likely open up far more land to mass exploration, the northwest passage will be a real seaway though if the UN remains intact, it will likely be an international waterway.

I place the odds of us being part of the united states by 2067 and 75%.


"What will our demographic makeup look like? Will we become a slow growth nation as the UN predicts or take in even more immigrants to sustain our economy?"

Overall Canada will be far more ethnically diverse than now, visible minorities will make up over 60% of the population as the nations european populations continue to dwindle. In saying so white families will still makeup the majority of the top 9.9% of wealth and will still control the majority of all resource company shares in the country. As for immigration, it will continue at higher levels than today since international borders will be far more porous and mass migrations across borders will be commonplace legal or otherwise, something we already see a lot of now.



"How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?"

For simplicity sake I'll only include Canada's 8 largest cities. Toronto will be at 12 million in the GTHA which is 5 million more than at present, while Montreal will round out around 7 million, the Greater Vancouver area will be around 5 million by this time. Demographically these 3 cities will be overwhelmingly stratified with 99% of all housing and wealth concentrated amongst an ever shrinking upper class. Due to this our cities will have growing inner city ghettos and slums similar to Favalas in Brazil today.

The next 3 largest cities will be
Calgary at 4.5 million. Edmonton at 4 million. Ottawa at 4 million, quebec and winnipeg will both hit over 1 million people in the 2030s rounded out around 2 million each by 2067.
As is the case with the big 3, these cities will also be extremely stratisfied as will be commonplace around the world in the post capitalist era that will makeup the the mid-late 21st century.




"Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?"

Much more but only as a large mining operation, as the wealthy classes continue to require large sources of resources. they will turn to countries such as Canada and russia which they will mine recklessly in order to acquire as many resources as possible.
Politically it's likely Canada will be part of the US or at least what the US will become, this will imply that Canada's government and cultural structure would be now be completely dismantled as the US which uses Canada as a resource hub would implement a puppet government within Canada in order to hemp maintain the peace, in 2067 resource wars and global threats of uprising by left wing ideologues will become far more often, Canada and the US will be governed my a populist government, rather a far right nationalist populist one, during the 2020s and onward the rise of the alt right and populism will lead to the rise of pseudo fascist governments throughout the western world, these will be quite successful and will control nations during the transitionary period between the capitalist 20th and early 21st century into the post capitalist middle to late 21st century, this transition will not be pretty and will last between 2015-2040.

"What will the relationship between First Nations and non-First Nations look like?"
Likely first nations populations will swell and with it will bring more stratification and instability, if any group will be a vanguard to any revolutionary actions or mass public violence, natives will be at the forefront of it in Canada.

"What will be our biggest challenge in the next five decades?"

As we continue to cope with the realities of automation and late capitalism's problematic wealth distribution problem we will see a major level of wealth inequality that will cause a lot of social unrest and political crisis, in fact this has already begun, by 2067 we will be on the verge of civil uprising, in the mean time as people suffer and the economic system utterly fails to provide it will lead people to pick sides and join populist far left abd far right parties, this will lead to the death of the Liberal party of Canada and the rise of the Conservative party in Canada, the CPC will govern Canada between around 2023-2040, around 2040 the US will likely annex us for convenience.

Climate change will compound things further, as crops die hunger will increase, eyes will turn to Canada which still has large tracts of agricultural land, this is will kick off another resource war which the US will inevitably win, this will set into motion a series of events which will eventually result in Canada forfeiting it's sovereignty to the US under the understanding that the US will provide a universal basic income for all to assure and and bring on the post work and post capitalist era which will begin by 2045.

All of this is conjecture and you may laugh at it, but did you expect brexit to be a yes vote? Did you imagine le pen would come so close to the french presidency? did you imagine doug ford as premier of Ontario? How about Trump?

We are living in chaotic times and it will only get worse from her eon out, any positive future projections are completely delusional. Once boomers die en masse all bets are off as Millennial and post millennials inherit the mess they left behind.

Things might not get as bad as I predict but it wills till get much worse than many of you are projecting.

As for some definitions
Post capitalism: the economic system that will evolve out of capitalism's decline, Capitalism will reach a brick wall as incomes continue to stagnate while consumption must increase in order to grow GDP, this will lead to a major debt bubble which will burst in a few short years decimating our economies in a way much worse than the great depression, Post capitalism could be marxism, it could be something new, it could be fully automated luxury space socialism for all I know, we don't know how things will turn out.

Late stage capitalism: this is term that refers to the late stages of capitalism's development before it reaches it's crisis and eventual collapse, we reached late stage capitalism in the 1970s but managed to postpone it's effects via the adoption by the masses of credit. Problem is credit is limited and borrowing from future revenues only works if future revenues actually exist, when the everything bubble finally pops it will usher in the capitalist crisis that will lead to the events I predicted. Technically the crisis has already begun, we've already hit the wall, capitalism is on life support.
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Last edited by Bcasey25raptor; Jul 20, 2018 at 4:00 AM.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 3:44 AM
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By 2067 Toronto council might actually have agreed on proper subway expansion and there will be many lines built and more under construction.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 3:46 AM
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By 2067 Toronto council might actually have agreed on proper subway expansion and there will be many lines built and more under construction.
The most unrealistic prediction so far.

We'll still be fighting about the Scarborough subway extension.
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Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 3:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane

A little inspired by some of the discussions in the "Canada: 1 Billion" thread, how do you envision Canada to be once it's 200th birthday rolls around, or how do you hope it to be?

(1) What will our economy be like? How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?

(2) What will our demographic makeup look like? Will we become a slow growth nation as the UN predicts or take in even more immigrants to sustain our economy?

(3) How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?

(4) Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?

(5) What will the relationship between First Nations and non-First Nations look like?

(6) What will be our biggest challenge in the next five decades?

Sorry for all the "essay" questions, just brainstorming!
With less of a manufacturing industry, manufacturing jobs shifting with world trade to developing countries, our economy will become more resource based on our large geographical size as compared to other countries & the shear increased appetite in the world of these resources & our stable economy for developing & extracting these resources reliably.

Places similar to Nigeria, Venezuela & the Middle East, for that matter, will become even more problematic for the world's growing need for oil, Africa & countries like China & India's growing middle class will propel the need for this commodity. Largely only 1st World countries will actually have a drop in oil consumption this century. Other commodities like mineral mining, Potash fertilizer, agriculture products & energy resources such as uranium will have an ever increasing demand thus increasing need for Saskatchewan's & Canada's resources. Climate change with help extend agriculture farther north & crops not normally grown on The Prairies with help increase the number of products the rest of the world will be interested in buying. Fruit and vegetable production will have exponential growth.

With this centuries aging demographic and lower birth rate, Canada's increasing population will mostly be due to immigration once baby boomers age past their life expectancy.

A reliable barometer to which Canadian cities CMA will grow the most through Canada's bi-cenntennial and which cities will stagnant or drop in population can be seen by looking back over the past 50 or 60 years.

Calgary & Red Deer has grown ten fold, Edmonton 6x, Saskatoon 5x
...& cities like Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, KWC, Kelowna, Lethbridge growing by 4x in the last 50-60 years.
...& cities like Montreal, Winnipeg, Hamilton, QuebecCity, London, Regina growing by 3x in that time frame.
Cities like Halifax, Niagara/StCath, Windsor have grown less, about 2x over the last half century, but maybe with increasing immigration over this century these cities relevance in Canada will be maintained.

Canada's relevance in the World psyche will mostly be symbolic, leading the way in human rights and how it's made amends in dealing with First Nations issues. Canada's political clout will largely be determined by how America, EU and China decide to treat Canada.

Canada's biggest challenges will be integrating it's growing immigrant population & growing sustainably & economically in an ever increasingly connected world without becoming a target for internal & international cyber attacks & terrorism by environmental groups, religious fanatics and political organizations.

Last edited by SaskScraper; Jul 20, 2018 at 4:38 AM.
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  #16  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 5:31 AM
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By 2067 our transportation systems will be so advanced that there will be no real need to live in a huge city. Another factor is the coming of the robot age. Most people will not need to work. Some will prefer the big city lifestyle, but not enough to sustain a positive population growth. In fact, the biggest cities in Canada will start to decline in population, as high speed travel will be cheap and make commutes from far off places possible. Imagine Kelowna region (2067 pop - 850 000) commute into downtown Vancouver in 40 minutes.

Overall though, I think Canada will start to make huge gains in population as global warming devestates countries, while Canada will actually benefit.
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  #17  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 6:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor View Post
Fun thread idea

"What will our economy be like? How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?"

in 2067 most jobs will be automated so most Canadians will likely be receiving some form of economic wealth redistribution, if this isn't the case than Capitalism will have collapsed decades before 2067 leaving most western nations in economic ruins, many will have gone through major violent uprisings and will see crime and poverty become untenably bad.

If we do still have an economy it will be even more based around resources than now, since climate change will have decimated the climate and environment and we will have eroded our available natural resources, Canada will likely open up far more land to mass exploration, the northwest passage will be a real seaway though if the UN remains intact, it will likely be an international waterway.

I place the odds of us being part of the united states by 2067 and 75%.


"What will our demographic makeup look like? Will we become a slow growth nation as the UN predicts or take in even more immigrants to sustain our economy?"

Overall Canada will be far more ethnically diverse than now, visible minorities will make up over 60% of the population as the nations european populations continue to dwindle. In saying so white families will still makeup the majority of the top 9.9% of wealth and will still control the majority of all resource company shares in the country. As for immigration, it will continue at higher levels than today since international borders will be far more porous and mass migrations across borders will be commonplace legal or otherwise, something we already see a lot of now.



"How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?"

For simplicity sake I'll only include Canada's 8 largest cities. Toronto will be at 12 million in the GTHA which is 5 million more than at present, while Montreal will round out around 7 million, the Greater Vancouver area will be around 5 million by this time. Demographically these 3 cities will be overwhelmingly stratified with 99% of all housing and wealth concentrated amongst an ever shrinking upper class. Due to this our cities will have growing inner city ghettos and slums similar to Favalas in Brazil today.

The next 3 largest cities will be
Calgary at 4.5 million. Edmonton at 4 million. Ottawa at 4 million, quebec and winnipeg will both hit over 1 million people in the 2030s rounded out around 2 million each by 2067.
As is the case with the big 3, these cities will also be extremely stratisfied as will be commonplace around the world in the post capitalist era that will makeup the the mid-late 21st century.




"Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?"

Much more but only as a large mining operation, as the wealthy classes continue to require large sources of resources. they will turn to countries such as Canada and russia which they will mine recklessly in order to acquire as many resources as possible.
Politically it's likely Canada will be part of the US or at least what the US will become, this will imply that Canada's government and cultural structure would be now be completely dismantled as the US which uses Canada as a resource hub would implement a puppet government within Canada in order to hemp maintain the peace, in 2067 resource wars and global threats of uprising by left wing ideologues will become far more often, Canada and the US will be governed my a populist government, rather a far right nationalist populist one, during the 2020s and onward the rise of the alt right and populism will lead to the rise of pseudo fascist governments throughout the western world, these will be quite successful and will control nations during the transitionary period between the capitalist 20th and early 21st century into the post capitalist middle to late 21st century, this transition will not be pretty and will last between 2015-2040.

"What will the relationship between First Nations and non-First Nations look like?"
Likely first nations populations will swell and with it will bring more stratification and instability, if any group will be a vanguard to any revolutionary actions or mass public violence, natives will be at the forefront of it in Canada.

"What will be our biggest challenge in the next five decades?"

As we continue to cope with the realities of automation and late capitalism's problematic wealth distribution problem we will see a major level of wealth inequality that will cause a lot of social unrest and political crisis, in fact this has already begun, by 2067 we will be on the verge of civil uprising, in the mean time as people suffer and the economic system utterly fails to provide it will lead people to pick sides and join populist far left abd far right parties, this will lead to the death of the Liberal party of Canada and the rise of the Conservative party in Canada, the CPC will govern Canada between around 2023-2040, around 2040 the US will likely annex us for convenience.

Climate change will compound things further, as crops die hunger will increase, eyes will turn to Canada which still has large tracts of agricultural land, this is will kick off another resource war which the US will inevitably win, this will set into motion a series of events which will eventually result in Canada forfeiting it's sovereignty to the US under the understanding that the US will provide a universal basic income for all to assure and and bring on the post work and post capitalist era which will begin by 2045.

All of this is conjecture and you may laugh at it, but did you expect brexit to be a yes vote? Did you imagine le pen would come so close to the french presidency? did you imagine doug ford as premier of Ontario? How about Trump?

We are living in chaotic times and it will only get worse from her eon out, any positive future projections are completely delusional. Once boomers die en masse all bets are off as Millennial and post millennials inherit the mess they left behind.

Things might not get as bad as I predict but it wills till get much worse than many of you are projecting.

As for some definitions
Post capitalism: the economic system that will evolve out of capitalism's decline, Capitalism will reach a brick wall as incomes continue to stagnate while consumption must increase in order to grow GDP, this will lead to a major debt bubble which will burst in a few short years decimating our economies in a way much worse than the great depression, Post capitalism could be marxism, it could be something new, it could be fully automated luxury space socialism for all I know, we don't know how things will turn out.

Late stage capitalism: this is term that refers to the late stages of capitalism's development before it reaches it's crisis and eventual collapse, we reached late stage capitalism in the 1970s but managed to postpone it's effects via the adoption by the masses of credit. Problem is credit is limited and borrowing from future revenues only works if future revenues actually exist, when the everything bubble finally pops it will usher in the capitalist crisis that will lead to the events I predicted. Technically the crisis has already begun, we've already hit the wall, capitalism is on life support.
Are you saying we should seize the means of production now while thinga are still good?
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  #18  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 12:56 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
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I guess I should also answer my own questions

What will our economy be like? How important will oil be, or will water replace it is our greatest resource?

Harder to predict because it depends a lot on how much more advanced technology comes, future recessions and global conflict. I think the greatest challenge for our economy will be in the coming decade or two, as the population continues to age and baby boomers pass. This is when there will really be a push to increase immigration rates, however I imagine this will be a little more short-lived and we will become a bit "pickier" with who we admit and don't admit.
Oil will remain of course but I do imagine that water will become an important resource. However, we won't become a "water superpower" as I've heard some suggest before, we will basically export water only to the United States, primarily to the Great Plains states as this may be a more viable option than from desalination from the coasts.

What will our demographic makeup look like? Will we become a slow growth nation as the UN predicts or take in even more immigrants to sustain our economy?

As already said, visible minorities will make up a much larger percentage of the national population, as well as the Indigenous population as it's birth rate far exceeds that of non-Indigenous people. The UN predicts we'll be a nation of a little over 46 million by 2067, however I think we'll grow to be about 55 million by then, about 0.8% growth annually, up from 36,708,000 on July 1, 2017.

How big will our cities be? Will the current major cities continue to dominant nationally or will our medium-sized cities become more important?

Provinces and Territories by population:
1. Ontario 21,139,000
2. Quebec 11,897,000
3. British Columbia 7,175,000
4. Alberta 7,049,000
5. Manitoba 2,094,000
6. Saskatchewan 1,822,000
7. Nova Scotia 1,287,000
8. New Brunswick 883,000
9. Newfoundland and Labrador 479,000
10. Prince Edward Island 226,000
11. Nunavut 69,000
12. Yukon 62,000
13. Northwest Territories 55,000
CANADA TOTAL 54,237,000

CMAs over 500,000:
1. Toronto-Hamilton-Oshawa 12,800,000
2. Montreal 6,163,000
3. Vancouver 4,228,000
4. Calgary 2,984,000
5. Edmonton 2,693,000
6. Ottawa 2,265,000
7. Waterloo Region (+Guelph) 1,852,000
8. Winnipeg 1,500,000
9. Quebec 1,209,000
10. London 858,000
11. Halifax 784,000
12. Saskatoon 682,000
13. Victoria 651,000
14. Niagara Region 621,000
15. Windsor 540,000
16. Regina 507,000

Will Canada become more important internationally, less important or remain in relatively the same position as it is now?

Canada will likely be in a similar position internationally, at least among the developed world, however our economic power and might will fall as developing nations become wealthier. There will also be a greater push to form alliances and trade agreements with other nations to try to become a little less reliant on trade with the US, however they will of course be our biggest partner for as long as America exists.

What will the relationship between First Nations and non-First Nations look like?

As consecutive federal governments fail to deliver on promises and fail to improve relations between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, there will be a greater push for sovereignty. Not in the sense that they will attempt to separate like Quebec (as that's not possible), but there will be a demand for Indigenous people to have complete control over their destiny and future, so that the so-called "nation to nation" relationship becomes more of a reality than a saying. We'll also likely see AIM and Idle No More type protests become more frequent in the coming decades.

What will be our biggest challenge in the next five decades?

Climate Change.
Although if immigration isn't increased to deal with the aging population this will be another major challenge for the economy and the nation's health.
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  #19  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 2:19 PM
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The most unrealistic prediction so far.

We'll still be fighting about the Scarborough subway extension.
The internet really needs a font so people understand when someone is being sarcastic...
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  #20  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 5:54 PM
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Are you saying we should seize the means of production now while thinga are still good?
Oh god know lol, this is mostly a joke prediction, capitalism will die out naturally as a natural progression of human economic behaviours.

as stated in the prediction, I don't know what post capitalism will entail.
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