Calgary Population Growth.

Surrealplaces · #1 Posted **Feb 11, 2015, 7:03 PM**

A thread to cover population growth of both civic census and Canada census numbers.

The latest numbers to be posted on the StatsCan side. Highlights for Calgary include:

Passing the 1.4 Million mark
Calgary having higher growth than Montreal in raw numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trans Canada

2014 data:

Source http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?id=0510056

sportsdude · #2 Posted **Feb 11, 2015, 7:44 PM**

Please post this to the Canada forum and start WWIII. Especially if there was a snarky remark towards Montreal. How come your great Cosmopolitan Metropolis attracted less people than Calgary and roughly the same as Edmonton?

Deepstar · #3 Posted **Feb 11, 2015, 9:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsdude

Please post this to the Canada forum and start WWIII. Especially if there was a snarky remark towards Montreal. How come your great Cosmopolitan Metropolis attracted less people than Calgary and roughly the same as Edmonton?

I was just there, and was surprised to find an absence of flying venom. Usually the fighting starts from one of two things. Someone from Calgary going a bit far with the boosterism, or someone from Montreal making a negative remark towards Calgary. So far there has been none of that.

It's awesome to see Calgary pass 1.4 Million people. I'm blown away by the growth of this city.

DarthMalgus · #4 Posted **Feb 11, 2015, 9:13 PM**

...and that doesn't even include Foothills and Okotoks which put us at around 1.5m for a more accurate metro population!

I remember when I moved here in the late 90s Calgary and Edmonton were quite a ways back of the "big 4" million-plus cities of the time. Now both cities have surpassed Ottawa. Pretty impressive. Although it might take a good many years to catch Vancouver...

Predicting only around 25,000 or so growth this year unfortunately with the tough economy.

speedog · #5 Posted **Feb 11, 2015, 9:33 PM**

Are there any stats available on non-CMA population numbers of these same cities?

Surrealplaces · #6 Posted **Feb 11, 2015, 9:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarthMalgus

...and that doesn't even include Foothills and Okotoks which put us at around 1.5m for a more accurate metro population!

I remember when I moved here in the late 90s Calgary and Edmonton were quite a ways back of the "big 4" million-plus cities of the time. Now both cities have surpassed Ottawa. Pretty impressive. Although it might take a good many years to catch Vancouver...

Predicting only around 25,000 or so growth this year unfortunately with the tough economy.

I don't think I'll be alive to see Calgary surpass Vancouver. It's not likely it ever would.....Vancouver has had solid consistent and it should just keep going that I way I think.

You know you live in Calgary when a downturn in the economy means only 25K growth

Chadillaccc · #7 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 6:23 AM**

I have the same feeling DarthMalgus, I was thinking 25-30 000 this year. Still pretty stellar growth for a city our size. I expect the municipal census to be relatively impressive still, considering we were still growing like gangbusters up until January.

I also don't see Calgary surpassing Vancouver. With this downturn looking like it will be a tame version of the 80s collapse, we're in for an extended (3 years +) or moderate growth, and possibly with a new reality after its over. I could see Calgary hitting 2.1 million when Vancouver hits 3 million, closing the gap from the current 1.1 million to about 900 000, but that's probably the best we could hope for in the mid-term (15 years or so)...

Doug · #8 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 2:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

I have the same feeling DarthMalgus, I was thinking 25-30 000 this year. Still pretty stellar growth for a city our size. I expect the municipal census to be relatively impressive still, considering we were still growing like gangbusters up until January.

I also don't see Calgary surpassing Vancouver. With this downturn looking like it will be a tame version of the 80s collapse, we're in for an extended (3 years +) or moderate growth, and possibly with a new reality after its over. I could see Calgary hitting 2.1 million when Vancouver hits 3 million, closing the gap from the current 1.1 million to about 900 000, but that's probably the best we could hope for in the mid-term (15 years or so)...

Re-evaluate that assumption after Vancouver's housing bubble bursts.

Trans Canada · #9 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 3:03 PM**

click to expand

DarthMalgus · #10 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 4:03 PM**

re: growth - it's hard to say, but the idea that the rankings of those 3 cities will never change overlooks history. Cincinnati used to be the 3rd or 4th largest US city; Winnipeg used to be bigger than Ottawa and Vancouver. Houston and Dallas will likely surpass Chicago in the nearish future - a prospect that would have been unthinkable 30 years ago. Vancouver may even overtake Montreal just as surely as Calgary or Edmonton may overtake Vancouver - someday. Obviously in the near term, there won't be much change to the national rankings, and this may be 40 or 50 years out, but who knows?

Interesting though, to look at the Stats Can info - for all the predictions that everyone will leave Calgary and Edmonton, during the last recession in 2008-2009 the two cities were still close to the top of population growth rankings.

Big Sky · #11 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 4:26 PM**

I could see Calgary closing the gap on Vancouver, but I don't think we will see it pass Vancouver. Will Vancouver pass Montreal someday, it wouldn't surprise me, but it's a long way away.

On a side note, you have to feel bad for Edmonton. Here's a city that has had very strong growth for a while now, but literally get's forgotten about thanks to it's neighbour in the south. Looking at Edmonton also highlights just how explosive Calgary's growth has been. 25 years ago Edmonton had 60,000 more people than Calgary, but now trails by 80,000 - unbelievable when you consider Edmonton's growth.

DarthMalgus · #12 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 7:49 PM**

I don't feel bad for Edmonton, other than their crap sports teams. They have been the second fastest growing large city in Canada for quite some time now, have passed the million mark to join the big leagues and have reclaimed 5th spot nationally by jumping over Ottawa. They also (finally) have a lot of exciting development happening, including the new arena and plenty of new skyscraper construction, as well as LRT expansion.

DarthMalgus · #13 Posted **Feb 12, 2015, 7:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug

Re-evaluate that assumption after Vancouver's housing bubble bursts.

Doug, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but people have been saying the Vancouver bubble is set to burst for years. Why hasn't it done so yet?

Spring2008 · #14 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 4:23 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarthMalgus

Doug, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but people have been saying the Vancouver bubble is set to burst for years. Why hasn't it done so yet?

Because analysts forget about the steady large stream of migration to large cdn cities, many with cash to spend.

I agree though, I think all cdn city's real estate is overvalued. Some to a greater extent. Looking at the affordability ratios, Van is extremely unaffordable. Over the long run though a housing collapse there will likely attract more migration as it is a beautiful city.

Pg 7
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economi...se-may2014.pdf

Rusty van Reddick · #15 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 5:38 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug

Re-evaluate that assumption after Vancouver's housing bubble bursts.

Burst bubble will mean cheaper housing. Vancouver's in-migration will skyrocket.

Doug · #16 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 4:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarthMalgus

Doug, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but people have been saying the Vancouver bubble is set to burst for years. Why hasn't it done so yet?

Interest rates are still low and the corruption crackdown in China is still sending money abroad. At some point, all of the corruption money in China will have fled or Canada will crack down on declaration of down payments.

Doug · #17 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 4:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Burst bubble will mean cheaper housing. Vancouver's in-migration will skyrocket.

Vancouver doesn't have the economy to support growth. Most of it is driven by people earning money elsewhere and buying over-priced real estate. I guess it is possible that lower real estate costs could unshackle business investment in productive parts of the economy.

MasterG · #18 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 4:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug

Vancouver doesn't have the economy to support growth. Most of it is driven by people earning money elsewhere and buying over-priced real estate. I guess it is possible that lower real estate costs could unshackle business investment in productive parts of the economy.

I would argue that the Vancouver economy is driven by being an attractive place to live. People are willing to accept poorer job prospects and expensive housing costs because of that. The more people that go there, the more people there are to pay for fancy coffees, indie music shows and micro-brewed beer, the more jobs become available there.

Capitalism!

Surrealplaces · #19 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 5:36 PM**

Calgary and Edmonton stand to do very well in the coming years

and here's why....

Growth for cities in general is made up from two things,
-Migration (International and inter-provincial)
-Natural Increase

Migration to a city is typically caused by two things....jobs, and for international migration, relatives/friends/sponsors

The job situation might not look good now, but even in a down cycle there are jobs out there, but most importantly job creation will come back with a vengeance at some point, and inter-provincial migration will explode again.

International immigration is somewhat tied to jobs, but also tied to other factors....existing relatives, friends and sponsors. Cities like Calgary and Edmonton have both been increasing their immigrant populations, and with that they are also increasing their potential for future immigrants.

And of course there is good old' natural increase' Calgary is tops in the country on a percentage basis, and Edmonton is second. This will bode well for increases in both cities.

Surrealplaces · #20 Posted **Feb 13, 2015, 5:50 PM**

There is the factor of a city's lifestyle, but the numbers are very negligible compared to growth from Jobs/in-migration

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterG

I would argue that the Vancouver economy is driven by being an attractive place to live. People are willing to accept poorer job prospects and expensive housing costs because of that. The more people that go there, the more people there are to pay for fancy coffees, indie music shows and micro-brewed beer, the more jobs become available there.

Capitalism!