NEW YORK | Central Park Tower (Nordstrom)| 1,550 FT | 131 FLOORS

[JustSomeGuyWho]

Manhattan Condos Are The New Swiss Bank Accounts For The World's Super-Rich

http://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-r...-buyers-2014-6

[JR Ewing]

Financial instability in China, Russia, and Brazil
Will only fuel demand.

[NYguy]

Originally Posted by Onn

Upp, told people this was going to happen.

It seems like some of the momentum in the luxury residential market has moved to the luxury office market in the last few months. Kind of a strange twist.

it's common sense that it could happen, eventually. The current "slowdown", if you could call it that, has to do with more choice than anything else.

This tower won't even come on the market until maybe next year, or the year after even. As for who's buying the apartments, keep in mind that not all of the units are in the $90 million dollar range, though those are the numbers that get the towers labeled "billionaire buildings".

A recent quote from Vornado concerning the supply of high end units, and the current market...


http://www.thestreet.com/story/12940...ranscript.html

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Earnings Report: Q3 2014 Conference Call

11/04/14

Ross Nussbaum (Analyst - UBS):

Can you talk a little bit about 220 Central Park South, just with respect to the activity you have been seeing over that Extell project at One57? And just some commentary on the direction you think that ultra high-end market is going. Obviously the press has been fascinated this year with the slowdown in sales activity over on 57th.

Steven Roth (Chairman, CEO):

I am not sure I heard all your question, Ross, but let me try and take a shot at it. So the first thing is that we are not yet in the market to sell product, although -- and we will probably enter the market in the first quarter of 2015.

We have a very large and very robust list of incomings, which we sort of called the friends and family list, of people who -- and they are largely domestic and they are largely New Yorkers, interestingly enough. Some non, some offshore people, whatever, who have basically heard about the building, seen some material on the building, and are excited about the building, and have inquired. And that does not include the real estate -- the residential real estate brokerage community who I am told anecdotally every major broker has a small handful of people who are very anxious to get in and look at the building.

So that is what we think is the state of the market.

With respect to One57, which I guess was the building that started the market movement, they are down to cats and dogs there. They have sold all the good product, and they have some odds and ends left and so it is not at all surprised that after having multiple price rises so that the product is extremely expensive, having sold all the good product and being down to odds and ends, that sales are slowing. That is predictable.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by NYguy

it's common sense that it could happen, eventually. The current "slowdown", if you could call it that, has to do with more choice than anything else.

This tower won't even come on the market until maybe next year, or the year after even. As for who's buying the apartments, keep in mind that not all of the units are in the $90 million dollar range, though those are the numbers that get the towers labeled "billionaire buildings".

It's not common sense, its economics. The capitalist system is particularly vulnerable to unexpected sharp downturns in pretty much any kind of investment, commodity, or asset. Real estate is not immune.

The good thing is that the global economy is weak right now so that will prolong this boom maybe longer than expected, as international investors will see such investments as a good deal. Just as you think things are going down they might go right back up again. I expect Nordstrom Tower will be fine. But there should be concern about a possible glut in the number of sky-high luxury units that ordinarily would only have a limited market. There's a phrase called irrational exuberance.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Onn

Other than the fact that's its true? People are going to get tired of buying $50 million penthouses very fast.

There are very few $50 million apartments for sale in NYC, and your opinion is just that, don't mistake it for "truth".

The ranks of the superrich are rapidly growing, and the supply of superluxury apartments in NYC (and London, for that matter) is not that big. It would be pretty silly to argue that the superrich will stop investing in real estate.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There are very few $50 million apartments for sale in NYC, and your opinion is just that, don't mistake it for "truth".

Once the market is flooded with expensive penthouses the demand for them will go down. It's not an opinion, its supply and demand.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Onn

The good thing is that the global economy is weak right now

There have never been more wealthy people on earth as right now, and the stock market is currently at record highs.

If that's "weak", I would be interesting in seeing your definition of "strong".

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Onn

Once the market is flooded with expensive penthouses the demand for them will go down. It's not an opinion, its supply and demand.

No, it's your personal opinion, and contrary to the opinions of people who actually own and develop property.

There is no "flooding" of expensive apartments; there are fewer units being created right now than at most points in NYC history.

If you're arguing "at some point prices will go down", ok, but I think everyone on SSP is aware of the basic rules of economics. But there isn't much product being created relative to historical norms, and the supply of potential buyers is much bigger than at any point in history. Yes, prices will go down one day, and then prices will go up again. We know that already, thanks.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by Crawford

No, it's your personal opinion, and contrary to the opinions of people who actually own and develop property.

Dude, what did Barnett just say? "Oversupply..." Those are his words not mine.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Onn

Dude, what did Barnett just say? "Oversupply..."

Yes, and what's your point? You're referring to the busiest developer in NYC, building the most units. You're using Gary Barnett to prove that developers believe that the supply of superluxury buyers is drying up? LOL. Then why is he spending billions on supertalls throughout Manhattan?

One building has been completed on 57th Street. 90% of the units in that one building are not for global billionaires. The supply of superluxury units is almost nothing at this point.

Yet you, the only person on earth who still thinks Chicago Spire is magically being built, who is reliably always on the wrong side of a SSP discussion, now wishes we all take your word for it, and believe that you can somehow magically predict the future of global economics and real estate? LOL. No, we won't take your word for it.

[chris08876]

Also, keep in mind that some of these units are bought by more than one owner. Sometimes, several, as a source of investment. This occurred for some One57 Units.

[gttx]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Also, keep in mind that some of these units are bought by more than one owner. Sometimes, several, as a source of investment. This occurred for some One57 Units.

And by corporations interested in somewhere to bring their own wealthy clients.

Definitely not all individuals.

[NYguy]

Originally Posted by Onn

It's not common sense, its economics. The capitalist system is particularly vulnerable to unexpected sharp downturns in pretty much any kind of investment, commodity, or asset. Real estate is not immune.

It's common sense, unless you think there is an unlimited supply of people who will buy these apartments at these prices, downturn or not. Eventually there will be a saturation point. That's called common sense, unless you live in a bubble somewhere.

Originally Posted by Onn

Once the market is flooded with expensive penthouses the demand for them will go down.

Hate to do it, but you get the big, fat DUH award.

These developers aren't stupid, they know when to bring these developments to the market. There will be time for the market to "absorb" some of this new product.

[Submariner]

Originally Posted by JR Ewing

Financial instability in China, Russia, and Brazil
Will only fuel demand.

It should be mentioned that private Chinese wealth is pouring out of the country and into foreign markets, with America being the number 1 destination.

[Onn]

Originally Posted by NYguy

Hate to do it, but you get the big, fat DUH award.

These developers aren't stupid, they know when to bring these developments to the market. There will be time for the market to "absorb" some of this new product.

Thanks, I accept the award. But I still think economics plays a bigger role than common sense here. Barnett and his team have work to do.

(Geez, seems like some people in this thread are getting a little testy.)

[Qubert]

Economics of penthouses aside, what tinges me a bit is that the uber-rich don't actually *live* in these buildings often enough. I won't lie, it's nice to have rich people in a city, they support the arts, buisness, shopping, etc. It's unfortunate these buildings often times don't add much in the way of actual new residents and thus activity.

[scalziand]

Originally Posted by JR Ewing

Also, the next wave, which consists of Nordstrom, 220 CPS, Verre, 520 Park, and Steinway will total no more than 1,000 units. That's not a lot.

right, over the 3-4 years it will take to build these projects, that amounts to an average of roughly one sale a day.

[JustSomeGuyWho]

Originally Posted by Qubert

Economics of penthouses aside, what tinges me a bit is that the uber-rich don't actually *live* in these buildings often enough. I won't lie, it's nice to have rich people in a city, they support the arts, buisness, shopping, etc. It's unfortunate these buildings often times don't add much in the way of actual new residents and thus activity.

Well, you have 520 West 41st Street that will have 1400 apartments, some percentage of which will be 'affordable housing'. Just from the economics, you aren't going to get anything other than an ordinary tower if your target audience is the "masses" and any tower you get won't be in a choice location. The best bet for residential density are the underutilized areas and there are some less dense areas of Manhattan that will never be zoned for the type of towers that support the density you speak of.

[newyorker]

Originally Posted by Onn

Thanks, I accept the award. But I still think economics plays a bigger role than common sense here. Barnett and his team have work to do.

(Geez, seems like some people in this thread are getting a little testy.)

Sorry. I'll take the blame for some of that.

I personally am disappointed that this building was listed in U/C not long ago. Now it's listed in proposed. I think some of our frustrations may come from that fact.

[NYguy]

Originally Posted by Onn

Thanks, I accept the award. But I still think economics plays a bigger role than common sense here. Barnett and his team have work to do.

(Geez, seems like some people in this thread are getting a little testy.)

Nobody's gettin "testy". Some people just have little patience for those who are being "willfully" dense.

Do you really believe that the city can support 1 Million luxury condo units dropped on the market? Of course not, it's common sense. Now drop that number down, and keep dropping it. It's common sense that there is a limited number of units that the city can absorb at any one time. No one should have to tell you that.

Now, in activity more related to this project, I walked along 58th Street yesterday, and both 220 CPS and this site are very busy, while excavation is still going on here, there is also cement in play. It's a forgone conclusion that this will be under "construction" soon. It will be followed by both 111 W. 57th and the Tower Verre, projects also under site prep, with construction imminent.