Quote:
Originally Posted by viewguysf
Revised headline:
Oceanwide Center was already on the ropes. Then Covid-19 hit.
The pandemic is just the latest obstacle for Oceanwide Center. Will it ever get built?
. . . The uncertainty has kept the real estate community guessing — and speculating privately — about the project, though few will go on the record. But there are plenty of doubts that the latest deal to sell the project will go through.”
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I read as much of the financial press as I can including the BizTimes and just about every issue of both Dow Jones publications. My overall take is that no one is calling for a real estate crash like in 2008 and especially outside the travel/liesure/dining/retail sectors. So far in this quarterly reporting season, a lot of the sort of tech that populates San Francisco commercial property seems to be doing fine. And while residential property, especially in the higher-priced tiers, could see softening in the coming year causing troubles for condo developers, construction costs are declining.
What does all this mean from Oceanwide? It means the prospective hotel in the shorter tower may no longer pencil out and the timeline on that tower may depend on the Planning Dept.'s willingness to permit a conversion to multifamily residential (condo or rental). But it also means there should be more solid prospects for the taller tower, now called T1, which would be a premier office address in a location favored by an industry that should be hurt less by the current depression than most. And if the project is seen as highly rentable, then there should be buyers willing to buy it at the right price. That would be especially true if Salesforce is still interested in space there, but one negative factor whose impact we don't yet know is that if working-from-home is seen as successful, some companies may stick with it and seek to shrink their office footprints, weakening the tech office market.
What I'm trying to say is that I think it's a good bet Oceanwide's T1 will find ways to get built, but the other tower is less certain. Eventually it will almost certainly get built too, but it could be a long time and could possibly involve a repurposing and even some redesign.