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  #41  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 4:42 AM
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Originally Posted by hipster duck View Post
Liberal: majority hold
PC: small gains, mostly by recapturing the little that they lost in Alberta in 2015
Bloc: Probably the biggest gainer proportionally. Will sweep former NDP territory
NDP: Probably biggest net loser, also in Quebec.
I have a hard time seeing the Bloc gaining any seats. Look what just recently happened to the party. The BQ has had leadership issues and support in Quebec has been as low as 12% in recent polls.

Justin Trudeau has been recently visiting many NDP held ridings in Quebec. Those seats are the Liberals' best potential for gains in the next federal election. For example, he is visiting Rouyn-Noranda (the closest city to where I live) on Wednesday. In the past, Rouyn would have voted Bloc but there isn't the political environment anymore that once made the party a popular choice.

I do agree that the NDP will lose most of its Quebec seats and that will be because of Jagmeet Singh being party leader.
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  #42  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 4:48 AM
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I think it'll either be a Liberal or Conservative minority, too many variables at play between now and election time.

Quebec and Ontario (especially Quebec) will be really interesting, as usual. The NDP will likely be obliterated in Quebec and they'll become a fringe party after 2019.

Not really sure about the Lower Mainland, there's going to be some hotly contested seats there for sure.
I agree that a minority government is very likely. I give the Liberals the edge and it may be very close in terms of number of seats won.

I don't think that the NDP will be obliterated and will definitely maintain official party status. They will likely win at least 20 seats and probably around 25 or so. They will lose a lot in Quebec for sure. BC is hard to predict but I don't see much of a change. I'm pretty sure they will hold their Ontario seats. For sure in Windsor and in Northern Ontario. I live in Charlie Angus' riding and he will win again for sure. If the Conservatives win government, then current Liberal seats in Northern Ontario may vote NDP.
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  #43  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 5:05 AM
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I have a hard time seeing the Bloc gaining any seats. Look what just recently happened to the party.
Events that happen outside the election cycle (roughly starting around August 2019, or whenever the first leadership debate is) are irrelevant. Likewise I think people are severely under-estimating Jagmeet's potential election cycle performance just because we still a year away from the election. Jack Layton was polling at 13% before the first debate, and Jagmeet is polling almost twice that now. Not bad for a guy who everybody says is the worst possible choice for the NDP.

Lots of "why isn't Jagmeet conquering the world right now" talk when the proof will be in that first debate. It always is in politics.

That aside I predict a Liberal minority, because I think people are a bit fed up with Justin's schtick so his "charms" won't be able to move the needle towards the Liberals when he rehashes his 2015 vision for Canada.
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  #44  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 5:35 AM
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Events that happen outside the election cycle (roughly starting around August 2019, or whenever the first leadership debate is) are irrelevant. Likewise I think people are severely under-estimating Jagmeet's potential election cycle performance just because we still a year away from the election. Jack Layton was polling at 13% before the first debate, and Jagmeet is polling almost twice that now. Not bad for a guy who everybody says is the worst possible choice for the NDP.

Lots of "why isn't Jagmeet conquering the world right now" talk when the proof will be in that first debate. It always is in politics.

That aside I predict a Liberal minority, because I think people are a bit fed up with Justin's schtick so his "charms" won't be able to move the needle towards the Liberals when he rehashes his 2015 vision for Canada.
You are right about the election campaign being where it really counts. But many people find that Singh is a lot like Trudeau and maybe even more flakier than him. Inviting the media to his wedding was lame and really turned me off.

I can tell you for sure that Singh is no Jack Layton at this point. Layton needed time to become well known. Singh hasn't been leader for very long and isn't even an MP.
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  #45  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 1:20 PM
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Originally Posted by once View Post
Events that happen outside the election cycle (roughly starting around August 2019, or whenever the first leadership debate is) are irrelevant. Likewise I think people are severely under-estimating Jagmeet's potential election cycle performance just because we still a year away from the election. Jack Layton was polling at 13% before the first debate, and Jagmeet is polling almost twice that now. Not bad for a guy who everybody says is the worst possible choice for the NDP.

Lots of "why isn't Jagmeet conquering the world right now" talk when the proof will be in that first debate. It always is in politics.

That aside I predict a Liberal minority, because I think people are a bit fed up with Justin's schtick so his "charms" won't be able to move the needle towards the Liberals when he rehashes his 2015 vision for Canada.
Yes and no.

No, in the sense that even way before the election cycle, we've known the minute the NDP chose Singh that the NDP would be losing Quebec. The NDP-voting demographic here is the Bloc demographic that decided to migrate to a more fresh "opposition to Ottawa" vehicle. This demographic is somewhat nationalistic, favors the integration of immigrants, and greatly dislikes the concept of State religion and conspicuous religious symbols on persons in power.

But yes, you're right, Singh may be a total wildcard in vote-rich Ontario and BC, and lots of ridings hinge on him and his performance in the debates and during the campaign. He does poorly, those ridings go red in a binary red/blue race; he does well, the same ridings go blue in a three-way FPTP race.
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  #46  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 3:11 PM
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Minority liberal government.

Scheer and Singh are tossed. An election is called again in 2021 or 2022 where the Conservatives win a majority.

Every government has received at least two mandates since the 30s. The Liberals won't buck the trend.
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  #47  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 7:10 PM
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Purely for fun since this sort of thing is impossible to call from three months out, let alone a year out:
  • Liberal Minority Government.
  • Liberals lose seats in ATL, QC, ONT, and BC, but not enough to lose control of government.
  • Conservative gains in ATL, QC, ONT. Scheer does enough to hold on to leadership thanks to seat gain, but walks a very tedious rope the longer a Liberal minority government survives.
  • Singh wins his seat in Burnaby South and thanks to events in BC takes that province along with some gains in suburban GTA. QC seats are likely awash. May win back their two or three strong Atlantic seats. Whether or not he's able to hold onto leadership after election is another question entirely.
  • Greens do well to win two or three seats on Vancouver Island and make some inroads in Vancouver. May's last election, promises leadership convention after election.
  • Continued pipeline news and referendum on election reform in BC affect Liberals negatively, opening door for NDP/GRN gains in that province.
  • NDP (and potentially Greens) are willing to support Liberal minority government from get-go as neither party can afford a snap election soon after a general election. Potential for early election in 2021 if Liberals see a chance and go for it, particularly if Singh and Scheer are under leadership pressure.

Additionally:
  • PCs win New Brunswick election next month
  • CAQ wins Quebec election this fall
  • Greens win PEI election next year
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  #48  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 8:13 PM
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Additionally:
  • PCs win New Brunswick election next month
  • CAQ wins Quebec election this fall
  • Greens win PEI election next year
Wait what. Is this likely??
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  #49  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 8:16 PM
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Wait what. Is this likely??
Greens are polling in the low 30s along with the Liberals and PCs. The Greens also won a byelection in Charlottetown last fall, giving them a current caucus of two members (out of 27 total in the legislature). Bevan-Baker has the highest favourables amongst all party leaders. It's certainly possible.
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  #50  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 8:17 PM
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  #51  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 8:27 PM
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Greens are polling in the low 30s along with the Liberals and PCs. The Greens also won a byelection in Charlottetown last fall, giving them a current caucus of two members (out of 27 total in the legislature). Bevan-Baker has the highest favourables amongst all party leaders. It's certainly possible.
Holy crap. And I see that's the district I used to live in too.
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  #52  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 11:35 PM
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  #53  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 11:40 PM
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I would ideally want the Conservatives or the Liberals to win but I can't stand Trudeau. I still can't believe people voted for that schmuck and his "peoplekind" nonsense. Slight edge to the Liberals as they tend to be very good at running the country economically. I'm guessing we'll see a result that suggest people agree with me "More Liberal, less Trudeau".
Agreed, but we're probably stuck with the Liberals clownish leader for the foreseable future.
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  #54  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 11:40 PM
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Clearly, he may have gained some votes too.
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  #55  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 12:15 AM
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Yeah if anything he likely recruited some folks into the Conservative camp.

Wish he was elected the PC leader, I'm not a fan of Scheer.
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  #56  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 12:57 AM
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Liberals. Federally we almost always elect the opposite of who’s in power provincially in Ontario.

The problems with the Harper government are still too fresh in the minds of voters, and the NDP haven’t had a credible chance since Jack died. The federal Liberals also don’t (yet) have the baggage that Kathleen Wynne had.
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  #57  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 1:02 AM
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Originally Posted by manny_santos View Post
Liberals. Federally we almost always elect the opposite of who’s in power provincially in Ontario.

The problems with the Harper government are still too fresh in the minds of voters, and the NDP haven’t had a credible chance since Jack died. The federal Liberals also don’t (yet) have the baggage that Kathleen Wynne had.
Doug Ford is really going to hurt them too. There aren't many Ontarians left who haven't been negatively impacted by his policy decisions this summer. His government just killed funding for a quarter of the daycares in my city because his minister has to "reorient herself to the portfolio".

Not that they ever had a chance here anyway; we're the Conservative party's whipping boy.
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  #58  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 4:17 AM
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Liberal majority

25 seats in Atlantic Canada
60 seats in Quebec
70 seats in Ontario
5 seats in Manitoba/Territories
15 seats in BC
0 seats in ALB/SAS

TOTAL: 175

Conservatives will hold official opposition with an increase in seats overall.... 5 seats in Atlantic Canada, 10 seats in Quebec, 45 seats in Ontario, a total sweep in AB and SASK with 45 seats, 10 seats in Manitoba, and 20 seats in BC for a grand total of 135. A good performance, but no government.

NDP will be wiped from the map. Greens may win one in BC.

Remember this post.
AB/SK is off. Though I'll concentrate on Sask.

Goodale's not losing the Regina-Wascana seat until he retires. He even held onto it through the Dion/Ignatieff years.

Regina-Lewvan is a toss-up for all 3 parties. It was a 3-way race last election with a narrow NDP victory. Now that Weir is "CCF", it'll be back to a weird 3.5ish race (he's not winning, but may steal some NDP votes).I wouldn't be surprised if a decent amount of votes jumped to the Grits as the Dippers will look weaker.

Northern Saskatchewan is also usually a 2-way NDP-Liberal race, though sometimes the conservatives take it.

Saskatoon has some potentially close calls as well depending on the candidates.

With the purely urban ridings, rather than the old Rurban pie splitting, Saskatchewan isn't nearly as solidly Conservative as it used to be, though the conservatives are guaranteed 7-8 out of 14 seats.
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  #59  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 4:20 AM
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Trudeau majority.
Conservative minority - 2 years
Freeland majority.
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  #60  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 6:02 AM
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Trudeau majority.
Conservative minority - 2 years
Freeland majority.
I wouldn't mind skipping the Con minority and having Trudeau step down to let Freeland lead the Liberals to another majority.

She definitely seems like the heir apparent and I for one cannot wait.
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