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  #81  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 4:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Here is a crazy idea. Maxime Bernier founds a new party in September 2018 and gets elected PM of Canada in October 2019!

Just like Emmanuel Macron did in France. He founded a new party in April 2016 and in May 2017 he gets elected President.
It certainly seems that Bernier has some end game other than the CPC.
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  #82  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 4:41 PM
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Bernier should absolutely go off and found his libertarian vanity project. The Conservatives don't seem to be able to get rid of him, however. At the moment, he's become one of the Liberals' best assets!

How is Bernier an asset to the Liberals?
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  #83  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 4:45 PM
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How is Bernier an asset to the Liberals?
Division in the Conservative party is a delight to Liberals. Stay or go, Bernier helps the Liberals.
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  #84  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 5:54 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
Division in the Conservative party is a delight to Liberals.
Actually, it's the opposite: the right type of division in the Conservative Party (saying one thing in Quebec, another in the ROC, and getting away with it) is likely to be a disaster for the LPC. (If the Tories can pull it off, of course.)

The LPC absolutely NEEDS a good chunk of Quebec otherwise the CPC will form the next government, and most of Quebec does not need much of a reason to vote for someone else - anyone, really. At this point we still have one year for a Macron-style (or Layton-style, if you prefer) Random Guy to show up from out of nowhere and sweep the province in 2019, but time's starting to run out.

If you want one example of division that would help the LPC greatly: the Bloc splitting into two separate parties permanently.
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  #85  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 6:48 PM
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Originally Posted by kiwi View Post
How is Bernier an asset to the Liberals?
Here's one very concrete way:

Maxime Bernier’s tweets against ‘extreme multiculturalism’ touch off record-setting donations to federal Liberals

Maxime Bernier may be causing headaches for his fellow Conservative MPs, but his latest musings on “extreme multiculturalism” have been a boon for the federal Liberal party.

The Liberals say a fundraising campaign based on Bernier’s controversial comments has raised 77 per cent more money than any of their previous issue-based efforts.

Party spokesperson Braeden Caley says online donations have doubled and social media engagement has quadrupled since Monday.

And he says the Bernier controversy has also helped boost the rolls of registered Liberal supporters, with 1,000 new sign-ups this week...


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...ism-touch-off/
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  #86  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 6:50 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
Bernier should absolutely go off and found his libertarian vanity project. The Conservatives don't seem to be able to get rid of him, however. At the moment, he's become one of the Liberals' best assets!
He certainly is. Scheer at least holds the Harper base together and will likely pick up a bit in the next election. Bernier would have been a Stockwell Day-esque disaster for the CPC.
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  #87  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 6:53 PM
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Yeah, whatnext, the biggest war chests always win. That's how the NDP with no organization at all, or any resources really, swept Quebec in 2011, while Harper was reelected in a landslide in 2015.

The LPC should pay attention to Quebec. It will decide the 2019 election. That much is guaranteed. (It's not bragging, it's just that everyone else is locked in or nearly locked in, while we're fickle and up for grabs.)

A few more donations in Southern Ontario is completely irrelevant. Even the biggest war chest imaginable won't do you any good in the context of the next federal election. What's paramount is to rub Quebec the right way; what can sink you is to rub Quebec the wrong way.

To wit: Mulcair took _one_ pro-niqab position in the 2015 campaign, and right there he lost Quebec, and thus his party plummeted to distant third at the country level right then and there, thereby giving the Trudeau Liberals a majority.

It really doesn't take much either way.
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  #88  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 7:20 PM
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I think people severely overestimate the negative effect of Trudeau's talking points. They certainly are not in the ballpark of the Ontario Liberals' two decades of mismanagement.

Any negative effects of Trudeau's leftist comments/actions will only be as damaging as Scheer can make them. Given how he's performed so far, it's somewhere between "not at all" and "it actually makes Scheer look incompetent".
I agree. I find Trudeau's sunshine-and-rainbows messaging to be annoying too, but it's really not the sort of thing I see costing them an election, at least not their first since coming to power.

I'm a big believer in incumbency. Devil you know, all that. Trudeau's "scandals" have been minor, and I certainly haven't felt any negative impacts of their government.

I predict another Liberal majority, although losing a number of seats to the Conservatives. I see the NDP falling off a cliff, and I see the Greens picking up another seat or two.

The Liberals' brand will take a hit again, but not this soon. It's a lot easier to criticize a government in power than one out of it. Once the campaign period starts and the Liberals start to make voters actually think about what a Conservative government would mean, I think all the noise will quiet down. And I'm not saying that from a Conservatives-are-evil standpoint, just that change is scary. The Liberals really haven't rocked the boat that hard - "peoplekind" is not a divisive election issue.
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  #89  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 10:57 PM
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I predict another Liberal majority, although losing a number of seats to the Conservatives.
The Liberals limped over the majority line in 2015 with 14 extra seats and a mere 39.47% of the popular vote. Even less than Harper in 2011. Losing a bunch of seats is paramount to Liberals no longer having a majority.

If you look at the run up to the 2015 election, the Liberals had a massive huge spike in the run up to the election - and they STILL just barely limped over the majority line. I don't see that phenomenon repeating in 2019, especially when so many Canadians already find Trudeau annoying.

Sure, I don't expect a total rout, and getting less than a minority government would probably need to have some major scandal between now and then (which I don't see happening), but don't discount the ways Trudeau is already annoying Canadians. It is minor, but all it takes is a minor change in sentiment to push Trudeau back into minority territory.

I agree though about the incumbent factor. That will surely prop up his numbers during election time, but that certainly doesn't seem to be helping his polling right now.
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  #90  
Old Posted Aug 18, 2018, 11:11 PM
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The Liberals limped over the majority line in 2015 with 14 extra seats and a mere 39.47% of the popular vote. Even less than Harper in 2011. Losing a bunch of seats is paramount to Liberals no longer having a majority.

If you look at the run up to the 2015 election, the Liberals had a massive huge spike in the run up to the election - and they STILL just barely limped over the majority line. I don't see that phenomenon repeating in 2019, especially when so many Canadians already find Trudeau annoying.

Sure, I don't expect a total rout, and getting less than a minority government would probably need to have some major scandal between now and then (which I don't see happening), but don't discount the ways Trudeau is already annoying Canadians. It is minor, but all it takes is a minor change in sentiment to push Trudeau back into minority territory.

I agree though about the incumbent factor. That will surely prop up his numbers during election time, but that certainly doesn't seem to be helping his polling right now.
I never said a bunch, although "a number" is ambiguous too. Where they will lose seats due to the loss of the anti-Conservative wave, I think they might get help from a collapse in NDP support too. The Liberals are not so bad yet that an anti-Liberal wave will develop this time around.
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  #91  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 12:11 AM
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The one wild card that could possibly take place is that Quebec has never been big fans of massive multiculturalism like Ontario has been and I would not be surprised to see many Quebec ridings outside of the Greater Montreal area possibly turning Tory blue with the Bloc and NDP collapses.
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  #92  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 4:35 AM
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The one wild card that could possibly take place is that Quebec has never been big fans of massive multiculturalism like Ontario has been and I would not be surprised to see many Quebec ridings outside of the Greater Montreal area possibly turning Tory blue with the Bloc and NDP collapses.
That's why I think the Convervative division is theatre. The party likely has research showing that natavism plays well in Quebec. It may or may not yet be in play in the rest of Canada. This allows Bernier to convey one message in Quebec and the rest of the party to distance itself. At some point natavism will become a factor in the rest of the country given that Canada typically lags the English speaking world economically, politically and culturally by a few years.

All that said, I expect a slightly larger Liberal majority. The NDP will collapse and the Liberals can effectively paint themselves as saviours from Trump. The two unkowns are of course Quebec and Trump. Escalation of trade disputes (ex. auto tarrifs) and continued massive outperformance by the US economy could blow up the anti-Trump strategy especially if the US resolves trade with China and Mexico but not Canada. What happens in Quebec is anyone's guess.
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  #93  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 2:54 PM
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That's why I think the Convervative division is theatre.
Agreed.

Any time a Conservative MP makes some sort of wild statements a year before an election I just assume it's the CPC testing the waters for campaign-time policies. If Bernier's tweets go over well with supporters this year they'll run on it next year.
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  #94  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 3:02 PM
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Agreed.

Any time a Conservative MP makes some sort of wild statements a year before an election I just assume it's the CPC testing the waters for campaign-time policies. If Bernier's tweets go over well with supporters this year they'll run on it next year.
Do you think the CPC would run the federal election campaign with a substantially different message in Quebec than the ROC?

If they embrace diversity in the lower mainland and the GTHA, but focus on the threat of multiculturalism to Quebec's identity in their French language campaign, this could come back to bite them big time (depending on how it's handled).
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  #95  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 3:04 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Do you think the CPC would run the federal election campaign with a substantially different message in Quebec than the ROC?

If they embrace diversity in the lower mainland and the GTHA, but focus on the threat of multiculturalism to Quebec's identity in their French language campaign, this could come back to bite them big time (depending on how it's handled).
It would be hugely risky.
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  #96  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 3:22 PM
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It would make most sense to me if the CPC had a consistent and balanced message regarding immigration in both their anglophone and francophone campaigns.

- emphasize the importance of immigration to growing Canada's economy but insisting that there has to be government control over the immigration process, and tightening up the process for unlimited refugee entry, making it more easy to expel illegal immigrants.
- ensure that immigration be "right sized" for the economy and reinforcing the importance of the "point system" for determining who should be allowed to immigrate and who should not immigrate.
- making sure it's crystal clear that language ability in either English or French is (aside from the limited number of refugees and family reunification candidates), of absolute importance in the immigrant application process. After all, people who already speak English or French should be more easily assimilated.
- setting firm upper limits on the number of immigrants allowed per year (say 250,000).
- continuing the process of having provincial nominee systems (especially important for Quebec).
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  #97  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 7:55 PM
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Is it just me? Maybe 10 years ago, wasn't it a fairly common oft repeated common sense sentiment that for immigrants desiring to live in Canada, it would be best to integrate into Canadian society and adopt Canadian values?

Where along the way did this sentiment get twisted into people pretending that by expressing this thought they are literally advocating for genocide?

I'm all for diversity and multi-culturalism, but the above still holds true. The idea that the two concepts are at odds with each other is constructing a false dichotomy.

I feel like the conservatives will only appeal to more people if they put on their big boy pants and have a mature conversation about this. "Diversity trumps all" is no less ridiculous then Trudeau inviting any and all people across Canada's border because Canada is "welcoming".
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  #98  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 8:19 PM
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To me, the interesting thing in the multiculturalism debate is that Trudeau himself used to champion integration. Ten years ago he was a big proponent of interculturalism, which seems to be the standard Quebec standpoint, rather than multiculturalism. I guess he must have found out having another stance might win him more votes.
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  #99  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 8:46 PM
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Do you think the CPC would run the federal election campaign with a substantially different message in Quebec than the ROC?
It's possible.

This phenomena can occur in New Brunswick. In the 2014 election leaders could say something in an Anglophone town and only have Anglophone media cover it and the next day say something different from their Anglophone message in a Francophone town and only have it covered by Francophone media. There was decent coverage about how Francophones and Anglophones were getting different news, and promises from leaders, depending on their language.

Having something occur on a Federal scale wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Last edited by JHikka; Aug 19, 2018 at 9:02 PM.
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  #100  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 9:35 PM
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To some extent the Ontario PCs had two messages in the GTA and outside the GTA.
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