I typed this up about a month ago regarding the Airport Trail Tunnel, and submitted it the Herald. I didn't ever see it published, and I thought it should be shared for someone to actually read, so here it is:
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Re: Mayor Clashes over Tunnel (November 15), FLying High on Debt - Airport Tunnel is no Bargain - (letter, November 21), and Digging a Debt (Letter, November 18)
At the November 14th city council meeting, Alderman Lowe and some others were asking about the total costs of the Airport Trail Underpass. Mayor Nenshi claimed that they had the information, and he was correct. And of course, the numbers wouldn't look like the anti-tunnel aldermen want them to look. Let's review the numbers in detail.
What is currently approved by council is $295 million. However, according to the city's estimate, what is being built now will only cost about $284 million, and only roughly 2/3rds of that is actual construction costs. Also, the city put a 30% contingency cost into the project budget, when a standard amount is only 10%. All for a project that, despite it's size, is actually quite simple in construction methods, and relatively free of potentially delaying unknowns. It's being built on wide open land, with no existing utilities in the way, etc. in other words, the project has a good chance of being built under budget.
In phase 2, the city builds two interchanges, at Barlow Trail, and at 19th Street, and the airport authority provides $20 million of the total cost. These interchanges must be built when the city decides to connect Airport Trail to the newly opened section of Metis Trail, which will likely happen in 5-10 years. In 2011 dollars, the city's portion is approximately $60 million for phase 2.
Phase 3, which involves building extra flyover ramps to the interchanges - when traffic demands it, is likely 20-30 years away (the city's transportation department thinks that they will never be needed). The city and the airport authority have agreed to split the cost 50/50, which according to the current design, and using 2011 dollars, makes a bill to the city of approximately another $60 million dollars. Of course, in 20+ years, societal transportation requirements could totally change what is required, so no one really know what the actual dollar value may be.
If you add all the numbers together, you would get $414 million. However, that number is certain to not be the total cost of the tunnel, as the final total will obviously be affected by inflation, and possibly changes in scope. Also, this total includes more than simply the tunnel itself. It includes a significant amount of work that would be required whether the tunnel was ever built or not. Roughly $20 million of that cost is for the portion of 96th ave/Airport Trail between 36th Street and 60th street that would be needed either way. Also, even without the tunnel, future traffic volumes on Airport Trail may force the city to build those to interchanges anyway, perhaps without ANY financial help from the airport authority. Those interchanges would cost around $100 million together. So, let's call the total cost of the tunnel itself around $300 million. That includes the cost of the land, the tunnel, the road through the tunnel, and the extra costs incurred by the Airport Authority in building the new runway that are caused by this tunnel construction.
However, in order to calculate the total long term cost of the tunnel, we must consider costs that would be incurred to the city in other places, if the city would have to adapt to not having the tunnel. Country Hills Blvd, between Deerfoot and Stoney Trail NE, would have to be designed and upgraded beyond what is currently planned and allowed for. Land already approved for development would have to be purchased or expropriated. The west LRT project required the city to pay $200 million to buy up land along the route. The city would likely have to buy more land than for the WLRT just along Country Hills Blvd. By the time the traffic would become completely unbearable (and thus needed for the expansion of the road), all that land would be developed, making expropriating or purchasing the land more complicated. I imagine that the province would have to improve the Country Hills Blvd/Deerfoot Trail interchange, and the city would have to build interchanges along Country Hills Blvd as well. There are 6 or 7 planned traffic lights between Deerfoot Trail and Metis Trail along Country Hills Blvd. (See the Stonegate Landing website to see the planned intersections) Building 7 interchanges would obviously be out of the question, but there would have to be 3 to 4 at minimum, with short distances between them making complicated and expensive ramps likely.
Metis Trail would likely require conversion into a full freeway as well, whereas with the tunnel, leaving it as an expressway should suffice for many years, if not forever. That would add another 2 or 3 interchanges. Adding up the required interchanges, plus land purchases, and you will easily get to the $300 million cost of the tunnel, and likely more.
I know some of you might doubt that such an expansion of Country Hills Blvd would be required. For those people, I recommend going to drive that section of Country Hills Blvd during rush hour, and then realizing that the area up there is only 10% developed. There is a huge area of land waiting to be developed, which will add a huge amount of traffic. Considering that a significant portion of that development is industrial and commercial (everything west of Metis Trail, plus pockets along 60th Street), there will be significant heavy truck traffic. There will likely be some industrial businesses that will want to be close to both the airport, and to the new CN rail yard being built out by Conrich. Country Hills Blvd even as a 6-8 lane road seems totally inadequate to handle that amount of traffic.
So, what is the long-term-total cost of the Airport Trail Tunnel? We don't know exactly, but in all likelihood, the number is around ZERO dollars, give or take $50 million or so. Even if we say that building the tunnel would cost $50 million more than not building it, it is still a good deal to build the structure that will create the best overall transportation network, and will allow Country Hills Blvd to remain the urban boulevard that the city has planned it to be. Most likely, the tunnel saves the city money in the long term.
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