Originally Posted by Bergenser
It's not "true" or "untrue", it's a projection, a guess, an estimate, neither fact or fiction. We will have to see.
But I agree with Shiro projections over ten years are totally inaccurate: it's just for 'experience' I say that. In the past thousands (yep, thousands) projections looking 20/30/40 years forward were wrong. Just take a look to '60s, '70s and '80s projection on 2000 and you hardly can find something which forecasted quite correctly the current world
Anyway, in particular about Germany: In '90s Germany growth was high, due to immigration; now it is low
Then in few years Germany trend changed dramatically: then making projections as Germany growth will be always that high or that low doesn't make much sense to me.
As we saw conditions can change in few years. And in 50 years they can chenge again and again
Let see Italy for istance. Its birth rate is very low since many years (just now it started to rise a while)
During last '80s and '90s population stop at 56 mio and start decreasing: projections (projections of less than 10 years ago in any cases) told us in 2030 or so Italy population would reach 45 mio or so; and projections for 2k in early '90s was 55/54 mio
Then... in 2008 Italy hit 60 mio