The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Ire Narissis]

Originally Posted by OliverD

That population corridor is pretty tiny in the grand scheme of things, and still exists as part of the Saint John to Moncton corridor. The current alignment is fine and is preferred for the vast majority of TCH traffic (little of which is going to Sussex or Petitcodiac).

Not to mention that the old TCH alignment still exists as Route 10 to Sussex and Route 1 from there to Moncton.

[Taeolas]

I think what I was trying to get to earlier, is that as far as the Urban/settled fabric of New Brunswick goes, the province (and/or Canada) has given Freddy 2 punches in its future.

The first was plopping CFB Gagetown right smack dab between Freddy and Moncton/SJ. The villages and towns that were there and would have grown as the cities grew were cut off, separating Freddy from those other urban links. You can see some elements of what was/what could have been along the edges of the base; but it's a mere shadow of what might have been. With a deusex machine, if I could have gone back and put CFB Gagetown anywhere else, I would probably have moved it onto the other side of the SJ, north of Freddy, maybe along Route 8/the Nashwaak river.

The routing of the new TCH was just added salt. It should have gone to Cambridge Narrows and ducked down to Sussex and then shared the Route 1 routing to Moncton, making Sussex the NB Hub and keeping service opportunities along the route between all 3 cities. (A routing that IIRC only adds 20km to the total distance, while servicing a more inhabited corridor of the province)

Instead between CFB Gagetown and the current routing you have around 100km of wilderness between the two cities with no real opportunities to lure tourists off the road or otherwise trying to take economic advantage of the highway travelers.

Sure the old TCH routing via Sussex exists; but people are not going to get off a 4 lane highway to use it unless they know of it, or otherwise forced to.

Anyways, what's done is done and nothing is going to change that. But I just wanted to point out that NB's urban fabric/settled fabric is damaged, both by the big military base and by the routing of the main traffic corridor. It has separated Freddy from SJ/Moncton and limits Freddy's growth towards those cities. (Gagetown more than the TCH)

[q12]

Nova Scotia Employment at Record High, Unemployment at Record Low

Employment in Nova Scotia reached an all-time high in January, while unemployment reached an all-time low.

The monthly Labour Force Survey recently released by Statistics Canada showed that Nova Scotia’s labour force increased by 5,400 in January.

Nova Scotia’s employment was up by 6,100 to 465,100, the highest level of employment on record for the province, beating the previous record set in December 2011 at 461,700.

The monthly gain included 3,600 full-time jobs and 2,400 part-time jobs. Compared with January 2018, Nova Scotia employment is up by 11,600, which included full-time employment increases of 10,100 and part-time gains of 1,400.

Unemployment was also the lowest on record. The unemployment rate fell from 7.1 per cent in December to 6.9 per cent in January. Since January of last year, the unemployment rate has fallen from 8.2 per cent to 6.9 per cent.

https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20190211001

[someone123]

Here's an RBC report on provincial and federal finances:
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economi...rov_fiscal.pdf

All 3 Maritime provinces ran balanced budgets in 2017-18, and all are projected to maintain a surplus for the next 3-4 years (the full projected period).

This last happened in 2006-8 and before that 2001-2002. So it's actually not that uncommon.

The country-wide statistics show that the "sky is falling" narrative just doesn't seem true in the Maritimes. Maybe it's going out of style but I still sometimes hear about a Maritime province going bankrupt or experiencing "demographic collapse". The 3 provinces don't really stand out for poor finances in Canada today and they all have much lower debt loads than they did around the mid-90's peak.

[David_99]

delete

[q12]

Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2016 boundaries


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501

[q12]

Originally Posted by David_99

So the Subprovincial Population Estimates for 2018 came out today. Not the numbers I was expecting...

__________July 1, 2017__July 1, 2018
Halifax_____431,701_____430,512
St. John's___219,207_____212,501
Moncton____152,169_____152,604
Saint John__128,541_____130,107

This is an incorrect comparison. The population estimates were readjusted based on the 2016 census (from the 2011 census).

Here is the correct 2017/2018 comparisons.

__________July 1, 2017__July 1, 2018
Halifax_____421,968_____430,512
St. John's___212,401_____212,501
Moncton____150,492_____152,604
Saint John__129,549_____130,107

Population change by census metropolitan area (CMA), 2017/2018, Canada

Population change (%)
Halifax 2.0%
Moncton 1.4%
Saint John 0.4%
St. John's 0.0%

[David_99]

Awesome, thanks!

[q12]

Charlottetown grew more in the last year than Moncton!

2017/2018 Population increases

• Halifax _______ +8,544
• Charlottetown __+2,231
• Moncton ______ +2,112
• Fredericton ____ +1,827
• Saint John, NB __+558
• St. John's, NL ___+100

[MonctonRad]

Charlottetown has really been making out like gangbusters recently. A large portion of this has been because of international migration.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by q12

Charlottetown grew more in the last year than Moncton!

2017/2018 Population increases

• Halifax _______ +8,544
• Charlottetown __+2,231
• Moncton ______ +2,112
• Fredericton ____ +1,827
• Saint John, NB __+558
• St. John's, NL ___+100

Good numbers from Fredericton. We only grew by 2000 people from 2011-2016.

Edit: I assume that number is for the CA, but in that 2011-2016 span 97% of all population growth was in the city proper.

[q12]

2014/2018 Population increases

• Halifax _______ +23,453
• Charlottetown __+8,035
• Moncton ______ +6,996
• Fredericton ____ +5,880
• St. John's, NL ___+4,265
• Saint John, NB __+1,559

[KnoxfordGuy]

These numbers always frustrate me a little because which numbers do I believe? The official stats or the estimates?! Becuase the estimates always have Saint John growing but the official numbers always have it shrinking.

[Taeolas]

The actual numbers are mostly irrelevant, and it's the overall trends that need to be looked at. Is a city growing like gangbusters? Growing at all? Stagnating? Shrinking a bit? Collapsing?

Freddy, Moncton and Charlottetown are all in the "Growing like gangbusters" territory, while Saint John is in the Stagnating/growing at all range, but seems to be trending back to the growing ranges. That's what will catch the attention of businesses and the government in general.

All in all, it is good to see the Maritimes doing so well despite the general feelings.

Since we're including Charlottetown and Freddy in the list anyways (despite being CA's, they are capitals so that does mean they are worth reporting), I am curious about the rest of the CAs in the Maritimes. Sydney at the very least should probably be in our major city lists, even if its numbers tend to be depressing.

[q12]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

The actual numbers are mostly irrelevant, and it's the overall trends that need to be looked at. Is a city growing like gangbusters? Growing at all? Stagnating? Shrinking a bit? Collapsing?

Freddy, Moncton and Charlottetown are all in the "Growing like gangbusters" territory, while Saint John is in the Stagnating/growing at all range, but seems to be trending back to the growing ranges. That's what will catch the attention of businesses and the government in general.

All in all, it is good to see the Maritimes doing so well despite the general feelings.

Since we're including Charlottetown and Freddy in the list anyways (despite being CA's, they are capitals so that does mean they are worth reporting), I am curious about the rest of the CAs in the Maritimes. Sydney at the very least should probably be in our major city lists, even if its numbers tend to be depressing.

Actually Sydney (Cape Breton RM) has stopped the bleeding in the last year!

Sydney
2016 100,369
2017 99,817
2018 99,805

They only lost 12 people in the last year!

This may indicate a positive increase coming in 2019 and back over 100,000 again!

[q12]

The end of population decline in Cape Breton Regional Municipality may explain Nova Scotia's record population growth with Halifax growing at a phenomenal rate of 2%.


Canada's population clock (real-time model)
Release date: July 11, 2018 Updated on: March 21, 2019


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

[Taeolas]

Actually, looking at all of the Maritime CAs and CMAs, I'd dare say the bleeding has mostly been stemmed. They are still losing, but the losses don't seem as bad, at least from 2017 to 2018: (Doing the math mentally so I may be off slightly on some of them)

Summerside: +204
Kentville: +321
Truro: -87
New Glasgow: -105
Cape Breton: -12
Bathurst: -7
Miramichi: +14
Edmundston: +43
Campbellton: - 44

So aside from Kentville, the Nova Scotia CA's are hurting the most, but the New Brunswick ones seem to either be growing (slightly) or not losing as badly any more.

[JHikka]

Northern NB is still trending downwards.

Gloucester -308
Restigouche -146
Madawaska -62
Victoria -235

Bigger drops 2017-2018 than in 2016-2017.

Seems like a lot of the periphery areas around the CMAs had a better year.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by q12

The end of population decline in Cape Breton Regional Municipality may explain Nova Scotia's record population growth with Halifax growing at a phenomenal rate of 2%.

People tend to make linear projections (same thing happens over and over the same way) about the future of regional economic and population decline but this clearly isn't a good model if you dig into what's happening.

The declining areas make up a smaller and smaller share of the total and the growing areas make up a bigger share. Cape Breton does not have much demographic impact on Nova Scotia now.

It's the same in New Brunswick.

It's a completely different scenario from a province that is completely stagnant or declining, even if sometimes the province-wide average looks that way.

[MonctonRad]

POPULATION OF ALL ATLANTIC CANADIAN CMA/CAs RANK ORDERED - 2018

1) - HALIFAX (NS) - 430,512
2) - ST. JOHN'S (NL) - 212,501
3) - MONCTON (NB) - 152,604
4) - SAINT JOHN (NB) - 130,107
5) - FREDERICTON (NB) - 108,054
6) - SYDNEY (CBRM) (NS) - 99,805
7) - CHARLOTTETOWN (PE) - 76,728
8) - TRURO (NS) - 46,432
9) - NEW GLASGOW (NS) - 34,869
10) - CORNER BROOK (NL) - 32,060
11) - BATHURST (NB) - 31,665
12) - MIRAMICHI (NB) - 27,983
13) - KENTVILLE (NS) - 27,301
14) - EDMUNDSTON (NB) - 24,029
15) - SUMMERSIDE (PE) - 17,325
16) - CAMPBELLTON (NB) - 16,134
17) - GRAND FALLS/WINDSOR (NL) - 14,313
18) - GANDER (NL) - 13,609
19) - BAY ROBERTS (NL) - 11,361