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Originally Posted by BCPhil
The thing to consider though is how many people in South Surrey commute to Surrey. I still think that most people there either work locally (mostly in healthcare it seems) or commute right into Vancouver. Is it worth it to build a more expensive line to White Rock when it would be faster to actually take the bus on the bus lanes on the highway to the Canada Line rather than a single seat ride on Skytrain? That's why I think LRT to South Surrey is more appropriate, because it would be better scaled (price for capacity) for the number of people who would use it to get into Surrey.
Lets compare. It's about equaly length to build Skytrain from King George Station to either 64 ave (King George) or 168 st (on Fraser). Both would have large catchment areas around the stations and many feeder bus routes into the station. Expanding beyond that it gets quite different. On Fraser, once you pass Highway 15 you hit Cloverdale, Clayton, Langley and Langley city, and you bring transit closer to those in Aldergrove and even Abbotsford. On King George, you build a long way and the only community you get closer to is South Surrey. It doesn't get closer to anyone else. On top of that, destinations are split in SS; many will opt for bus travel to the Canada Line. While Skytrain to Langley is a captive audience: the one line will take them everywhere they want to go, and be the fastest possible way (as fast as driving). There are also expansion possibilities from Langley, whereas South Surrey is a dead end.
Going to Langley would hit a slightly larger population directly, have a larger nearby population, and have a captive audience. If you could only build one, Langley would be a much better return on investment.
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But the real question is the segment between Newton and Surrey Central. Translink's own estimate state that it would have 7000 riders/km by 2021 and 12000 riders/km by 2041, whereas the LRT option generates 2600 and 5300 riders/km respectively. This kind if ridership definitely support SkyTrain. One benefit of extending SkyTrain to Newton is that it reduce one transfer for regional trips (And for the record, the main destination north of Fraser for the people in Surrey is actually Burnaby/New West). With the trunk route established, we can now focus on developing east-west corridor between 104th and 72th (which can eventually be candidates for LRT routes) and establish a high frequency grid system like Vancouver instead of funneling everything to Surrey Central like what we have right now. It would be interesting to see the ridership pattern on the new B-Line next year - how many people gets off at Surrey Central to get on SkyTrain, how many have Surrey Central as their final destination, and how many ride it all the way to Guildford. From what I've observed, more than half of the people on the #321 are coming to/from SkyTrain. LRT wouldn't be the best choice if more than half of the people ends up transferring at a single station.
What I have envisioned is a two routes skytrain system - one from King George to Newton, and the other would branch off the Expo Line with a Y junction between Gateway and Surrey Central, then it follows 104th to Guildford, 152th to Fleetwood, and Fraser to Langley. Trains from Waterfront would alternate between Langley and Newton, while a third line can run from Fleetwood/Guildford to Newton via Surrey Central. Base on the cost estimate on the Surrey rapid transit study, this entire plan would cost 3.3 billions, or 550 millions more than your proposal (If you include an LRT on 152th to match both systems, it would only cost 300 millions more). It can be done in 3 phases:
1. King George to Newton, 900 millions (100 millions more than the L route, but twice as much riders)
2. SC/Gateway junction to Fleetwood (168th St.) via Guildford with an OMC at the end of line (north of the golf club?), 1.2 billions (only 200 millions more expensive than LRT all the way to Langley, and 750 millions less expensive than SkyTrain from King George to Langley)
3. Fleetwood to Langley, 1.2 billions
Beside the Fleetwood to Langley segment, the other phases matches the three-line LRT routes radiating out of Surrey Central, but the SkyTrain line would bring more riders, more convenience, faster travel time, better regional integration, and lower operating cost. So I think it would be a good trade off.