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  #241  
Old Posted Sep 20, 2014, 8:28 PM
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I did some number crunching on this a few months back..

Essentially, ridings can be broken down by both urban/rural designation and French/English. See the following:

These are based on majorities. If a riding is a majority City (Fredericton/Moncton/Saint John, etc.). Same for municipality and rural.
19 City Ridings
10 Municipality Ridings
20 Rural Ridings

A lot of these rural ridings are barely still rural going by this measure. Restigouche West (43% rural), Hampton (44.8%), Charlotte The Isles (48.6%), Fredericton-Grand Lake (43%). I expect these to creep over and become city/municipality ridings by 2018.

In terms of language, there are 33 English Ridings and 16 French ridings, again going by majority. There aren't too many ridings that are half-half, but the closest are Campbellton-Dalhousie (42%E/54%F), and Moncton Centre (47%E&F).

Portland-Simonds and Fredericton-South have the highest number of Other language at 10.2% respectively. This is due, mostly, to UNB in both ridings. Oromocto-Lincoln is 7.2% Other, and Kent North is 9.90% Other.
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  #242  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 3:36 AM
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from CBC:

New Brunswick now tied with Nova Scotia for oldest population
Only Florida has higher proportion of seniors among all jurisdictions in Canada and U.S.
CBC News Posted: Sep 26, 2014 1:49 PM AT
Last Updated: Sep 26, 2014 1:49 PM AT

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are now tied for having second-oldest population of any jurisdiction in Canada or the United States, trailing only Florida.

Demographic information released Friday by Statistics Canada shows New Brunswick with 18.3 per cent of its population being 65 or older, putting it in a tie with Nova Scotia for the oldest population in Canada.

Only Florida, which is a sunny destination for retirees, has a higher proportion of seniors with 18.7 per cent.

The two other Atlantic provinces round out the top five jurisdictions for an aging population, with Prince Edward Island having 17.9 per cent of its population 65 or older, while Newfoundland's proportion of seniors is 17.7.

Statistics Canada says the proportion of seniors in Canada has steadily increased since the mid-1960s as a result of lower fertility levels and longer life expectancy.

On July 1, 2014, 15.7 per cent of Canada's population was 65 or older. Thirty years ago, seniors accounted for 10 per cent of the Canadian population.

The new population estimates show for the first time, there are more Canadians between the ages of 55 and 64 — the age when people typically leave the work force — that there are between the ages of 15 and 24, which is when people typically enter the work force.

On July 1, 2014, there were 4.6 million people between 15 and 24 in Canada, compared to 4.7 million people aged 55 to 64.

Thirty years ago, for every person in the 55-64 age group there were two people between 15-24.

personal note - So, four of the five most elderly jurisdictions in North America are located in Atlantic Canada. Only Florida beats Atlantic Canada, and they have good weather……
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  #243  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 10:35 AM
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Interesting, but not surprising. Statistically speaking, if numbers were available, it would be nice to see how many of the nearly 20% Atlantic Canadians are snowbirds and how much spending is lost to our economy while they are playing lawn bowling.
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  #244  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2014, 9:58 PM
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Don Mills went on a little bit of a rant today...
Quote:
Don Mills @DonMillsCRA · 5h 5 hours ago
Despite population stagnation in Atlantic Canada majority believe region needs the same number or fewer immigrants than we currently have.

Don Mills @DonMillsCRA · 5h 5 hours ago
Atlantic Canada remains least diverse in terms of population in Canada with only 4% born outside the country compared with 22% nationally.

Don Mills @DonMillsCRA · 5h 5 hours ago
The lack of experience dealing with a diverse population may explain Atlantic Canadians rather un- welcoming attitudes towards immigrants.

Don Mills @DonMillsCRA · 5h
Nova Scotia will need a net of 7000 new immigrants each year to replace the 100,000 workers leaving workforce over next 15 years. #NSPoli

Don Mills @DonMillsCRA · 5h 5 hours ago
Nova Scotia has been hard pressed to attract more than 1,500 net new immigrants in recent years. That's a long way from the 7000 needed.
I don't generally agree with Don but in this case I absolutely agree. The Maritimes has quite a persistent "dey took err jerbs" mentality, with 'dey' either representing immigrants or anything west of New Brunswick.
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  #245  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 3:01 PM
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Don Mills has a way of framing his twitter rants as very negative and dispiriting. It's depressing to read then, BUT, I often agree with his overall point.

In this case, I really agree. It seems like a lot of people in this region believe that A: We have as many immigrants as other parts of Canada, and B: They compete with locals for work. When the reality is that we have way fewer immigrants than most regions, and the ones we do have, overall, create more jobs than they "take."

I love it out here, but man, the best thing that can happen to Atlantic Canada is for new people from other parts of Canada or the world to come and blow open some of the protective parochialism that exists, especially outside the main cities.
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  #246  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 3:48 PM
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Atlantic Canada CMA vacancy rates (%; April 2014; Oct 2015 forecast; Oct 2016 forecast):

St John's: 4.8; 3.8; 3.9
Charlottetown: 8.7; 8.5; 8.5
Halifax: 4.1; 4.8; 5.0
Moncton: 10.7; 12.5; 13.0
Saint John: 10.0; 11.0; 10.0
Fredericton CA: 7.0 (forecast); 7.5; 6.0
Canadian average: 2.7; 2.7; 2.7

Moncton has the highest vacancy rate in the country. Saint John is second.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/n...06-11-0816.cfm
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalo...=1417794202157
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...5_2014_B02.pdf
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...1_2014_B02.pdf
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...7_2014_B02.pdf
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...3_2014_B02.pdf
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...0_2014_Q04.pdf
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  #247  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 4:10 PM
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Interesting.

There are several new largish apartment complexes under construction in the city, due to come on line next year. Presumably this accounts for the higher expected vacancy rates in 2015 and 2016.

I think there are some strong warning signs on the horizon for greater Moncton. Construction activity (at least multiple unit residential) may take a significant dive in the next couple of years (until demand builds up again).

Yet another reason why the building of the events centre downtown might be a good idea - to help the local construction industry survive a temporary dry spell........
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  #248  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 4:42 PM
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Yeah, I also get the sense that Moncton is "cooling" a bit. I've hinted in the past about migrations and when/if/how we might hit some sort of leveling off period of people moving from other parts of the province. I can't say that that is what is happening, but given NB's relative lack of inflow from other provinces/countries, it doesn't surprise me if that was the case. I wonder if developers may have been a bit too enthusiastic...
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  #249  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 6:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
There are several new largish apartment complexes under construction in the city, due to come on line next year. Presumably this accounts for the higher expected vacancy rates in 2015 and 2016.
Here's the report -- lots of interesting information: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...5_2014_B02.pdf

The vacancy rate is projected to increase even though starts are projected to decrease.

I think we can expect empty lots to remain vacant for a few years and for most important proposed projects to be postponed or cancelled. I wouldn't be surprised one bit even if 55 Queen was cancelled or downgraded.
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  #250  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 6:37 PM
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That's too bad. I really got the sense that Moncton was on the cusp of less suburban building and more infill. Might have to wait a few years while those vacancy rates come down.

One possible positive, though, is that even if population growth is slowing, that doesn't necessarily mean that downtown desnification is a lost cause, too. Part of what's driving developments in central Halifax is not just population growth (which has been a bit feeble lately) but changing living patterns within the city itself, as people move from suburban areas to the centre of city. That means high vacancy rates in the 'burbs, lower rates on the peninsula.
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  #251  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 8:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pierremoncton View Post
I wouldn't be surprised one bit even if 55 Queen was cancelled or downgraded.
Well, 55 Queen is at least delayed. Shovels were supposed to be in the ground this fall, but construction does not appear imminent.

This is too bad. I was rather hoping that downtown Moncton would be a hive of activity next year with the new events centre, 55 Queen and the start of the Downing Street redevelopment. Right now, the only one that seems slated to move ahead is Downing Street, and that is just reconfiguring the street. No actual buildings are slated to be built just yet.

Well Brian, the ball is in your court (tennis pun fully intended). Are you going to build the events centre or not??? The economy of downtown Moncton could sure use it........
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  #252  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2014, 12:04 AM
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Interesting post by CBC around the HRM cooling off for population growth. Although, my following statement is not based on fact, but I can see the same trend for Moncton or any other CRM in the Maritimes which have been growing at crazy rates over the last several years.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-s...lars-1.2865133
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  #253  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2015, 7:49 PM
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So retail trade in New Brunswick was at 986 million in November. We keep inching closer to 1 billion...only 14 million away. I hope to see it for December. I've followed the numbers for a long time and have never seen it happen. Fingers crossed!
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  #254  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2015, 8:00 PM
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Hopefully/maybe December will tip us over. With Target's 3 stores pulling out that will probably knock us back till summer. On the other hand, once BPS and Cabela's open in Moncton, that might be enough to bring us over this year.
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  #255  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2015, 8:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walk then Run View Post
Interesting post by CBC around the HRM cooling off for population growth. Although, my following statement is not based on fact, but I can see the same trend for Moncton or any other CRM in the Maritimes which have been growing at crazy rates over the last several years.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-s...lars-1.2865133
I think this is cyclical. The local economy goes up and down and so do the economies of different areas. They're not necessarily all in sync. The slow growth happens when the Maritimes are caught in the doldrums while areas like Alberta are booming. Alberta's economy won't be as strong this year and the projections I've seen have predicted greater economic growth for NS this year (2-3 percent instead of near-recession).

It was the opposite around 2008-2009, when most areas did poorly but NS did relatively well. Population growth in Halifax was more in the 5-6k a year range, but there weren't a lot of "good news" stories about it because the media was in economic crisis mode.

Realistically it makes sense to think of the long-term economic fortunes of the region as lying somewhere in between these two extremes. We tend to only get the bad news though.
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  #256  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2015, 8:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
Hopefully/maybe December will tip us over. With Target's 3 stores pulling out that will probably knock us back till summer. On the other hand, once BPS and Cabela's open in Moncton, that might be enough to bring us over this year.
Yes but Target was still open in December. We will see the stats for that month in February I'd say.
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  #257  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2015, 8:39 PM
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Yeah, that's what I was trying to imply; December will be our best chance to tip over to a billion.

January onward, we'll have Target pulling out, and the usual Winter doldrums depressing sales, so it's not likely going to be very good. Hopefully once summer shows up, we'll see an uptick that might be enough to get us over a billion for certain.
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  #258  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2015, 7:43 PM
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Here are the updated Q4 2014 population growth numbers for Canadian provinces and territories: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

Population up slightly year-over-year in all 3 Maritime provinces and essentially unchanged in Newfoundland. The change varies a lot by quarter to quarter and the apparent level of growth varies a lot over a given annual period, depending on whether you start or end on a local maximum or minimum. Still, a lot of news articles seem to suggest that Atlantic Canada is in extremely rough shape or is going to become depopulated but there isn't much evidence of that from either the population growth or the labour force characteristics. Slow or zero population growth doesn't mean that a place has to be an economic disaster.
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  #259  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2015, 5:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
Still, a lot of news articles seem to suggest that Atlantic Canada is in extremely rough shape or is going to become depopulated but there isn't much evidence of that from either the population growth or the labour force characteristics. Slow or zero population growth doesn't mean that a place has to be an economic disaster.
The Doomsday scenarios that are brought up are generally due to the fact that the Maritime provinces are the oldest provinces on average and this will only become worse in the future as baby boomers retire and either:
A) Retire somewhere else;
B) Pass away; or
C) Both of the above

If there are fewer younger people to spur these growth numbers then the anticipated decline in numbers is expected. If only Atlantic Canada increased immigration numbers....
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  #260  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2015, 6:23 PM
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July 1, 2014 CMA population estimates will be released on Wednesday: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/upc..._venir-eng.htm

2006-2013 estimates: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-...0/t001-eng.htm

Things to look at:

- Toronto should reach 6MM
- Montreal should reach 4MM
- Edmonton may surpass Ottawa to become the 5th largest CMA
- Whether or not Saint John declines again
- Whether or not Moncton can hold its 1.5%+ annual growth rate (from the past 5 years)
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