Turning the Tables
A sector-by-sector analysis of commercial and office real estate in Calgary shows a stark difference from a year ago
By Derek Sankey
Vacancy rates are rising fast in offices and commercial properties around Calgary, creating some good opportunities for tenants to strike a deal, and it’s a trend that industry veterans say will continue for at least the next two years.
“This year, rental rates have dropped anywhere from 10 per cent to 50 per cent,” says Todd Throndson, managing director of Avison Young in Calgary. “Next year, we’re looking at vacancy in the mid-teens and by 2011 … there’s the potential we could have vacancy in the 20-per-cent range.” Overall vacancy in this sector currently sits at 9.3 per cent city wide, up significantly from a year ago.Across the city, the big story in commercial office real estate has been a surge in sub-lease space. Companies that have been struggling financially have offloaded some space to reduce costs, while other companies that had aggressive expansion plans in 2008 quickly curtailed those plans and have begun farming out the unneeded space.
Business in Calgary talked to real estate experts and used recent market reports to give our readers a snapshot of what’s happening in each of the main markets in Calgary: the downtown core, the beltline, as well as the suburban south and north markets.
DOWNTOWN
The vacancy rate downtown has risen to 7.8 per cent after reaching lows of 0.8 per cent in 2007 and 2.2 per cent a year ago. About 2.7 million square feet of office space will be added downtown this year into 2010 out of a total of about 36 million square feet of space. In 2011, another three million square feet will be added.
“The market is going to have softness,” says Throndson. “Landlords have changed their pricing significantly.” With vacancy rates rising over two years, tenants renegotiating their leases or those that have come up for renewal will want to think carefully about their options looking into the future.
Class AA head-lease space is currently getting about $35 per square foot, while Class A space gets $30 per square foot, Class B sits at $20 and Class C at $16 per square foot. The largest contiguous space is at Place 9-6, which also has the dubious distinction of having the most head-lease space with 75 per cent of the building available at the end of the second quarter.
There are a total of eight office buildings under construction downtown containing 5.8 million square feet of space. They are: Penn West Centre West (fall 2009), Palliser South (fall 2009), Le Germain (spring 2010), Centennial Place East and West (spring 2010), Jamieson Place (spring 2010), Eighth Avenue Place East (fall 2011) and The Bow (spring 2012).
THE BELTLINE
This area stands out as one of only two areas city wide with positive absorption year-to-date in 2009. With the completion and occupancy of Stampede Station I, absorption recorded for the year is positive at 45,000 square feet, although it was negative 28,000 square feet in the first quarter.
Experts say the Beltine will be the exception for the remainder of the year, with a negative annual absorption forecast for the rest of the city as Keynote will be completed later this year and occupied by a majority tenant from outside of the Beltline.
The combined vacancy in the area sits at 9.8 per cent and is expected to remain below 11 per cent until spring of 2010, when vacancy will increase to more than 12 per cent as a result of the new Calgary Board of Education Centre reaching completion. The vacancy rate has been steadily climbing in this market, as well, up from three per cent at the end of the second quarter in 2008.
The total inventory in the Beltline is 5.7 million square feet in 93 buildings, with the largest contiguous pocket being 22,000 square feet in Bromley Square in direct vacancy. The largest sub-lease space is at 902 – 11th Avenue SW with 43,000 square feet. Class A space has a vacancy of 5.0 per cent, Class B is 11.9 per cent and Class C is 8.8 per cent.
Suburban NORTH
“The northeast has certainly seen a very significant jump in its vacancy,” says Avison Young’s Throndson. “A larger tenant of 30,000 to 50,000 square feet last year might have had three to five options,” he says. “Today, they probably have 20 (options).”
That sums up the activity level in the northeast part of the city, which has seen many large blocks of space open up this year. AMEC gave up about 55,000 square feet of space in its building near Centre Avenue, while the Willowglen building also has significant space available. Another half a building opened up from Loblaws at 32nd Avenue NE and when WestJet moved into their new corporate digs, it left a pocket of 65,000 square feet. Calgary Co-op also moved out of its old corporate office and into new space, leaving another 50,000 square feet available.
The good news, at least for landlords, is that the Calgary Police scooped up the space in the former Nortel building, which helped absorption. Yet, it’s a small dent in the overall picture in northeast Calgary. “There’s just a lot of blocks of space still available,” says Throndson.
The northwest quadrant of the city accounts for a relatively small proportion of space in the north market, keeping it one of the healthier places in the city. “There’s very little office space (in the northwest) and the market is still reasonably tight,” he says. “That’s the one market that is reasonably good. There’s just so little product in that market that it’s just pretty quiet.”
The vacancy rate in the suburban north currently sits at about 13 per cent, which was 6.5 per cent a year ago. That’s broken down into 6.8 per cent for the northwest and 14.7 per cent in the northeast – illustrating the contrast described in the markets by Throndson.
Suburban SOUTH
Like the northwest, southwest Calgary is a drop in the bucket when it comes to commercial office space and has little impact on the overall city inventory. The southeast, however, is another picture entirely with lots of activity happening there. It should be noted, though, that both quadrants have a vacancy rate of about 12 per cent.
The Airstates property on 11th Street and 59th Avenue SE is a 105,000-square-foot new building, which has only leased about 5,000 square feet, according to Avison Young. Macleod Place 1 and 2 – the two white office buildings across from Chinook Centre – have had space come available from Colt Engineering, while the Quarry Park development has had some space come back from Jacobs Engineering. The Southport Atrium at Southland Drive and Macleod Trail also has significant space open, about 44,000 square feet.
“Now tenants have a fair bit of opportunity to leverage landlords against each other,” says Throndson. There are currently 10 office buildings under construction in the south end of the city containing about 890,000 square feet that will help push the vacancy rate in the south as high as 18 per cent by the end of 2010 – the highest forecasted rate in any area of the city.
Projects underway include: Centron Park 3 (fall 2009), Quarry Park North A (fall 2009), Quarry Park West (fall 2009), Springborough Professional Centre (fall 2009), Homes by Avi building (fall 2009), Centron Park 4 (spring 2010), Quarry Park Boulevard Centre (spring 2010), Quarry Park Medical Centre (spring 2010), Quarry Central (fall 2010) and Atlantic Avenue Art Block (fall 2010).
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