Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021)

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by Authentic_City

^Winnipeg never fell behind Hamilton, but Hamilton has grown at a pretty brisk pace in recent years. There was speculation in the early 2000s that Hamilton would surpass Winnipeg in short order, but it hasn't yet. Kitchener-Waterloo has had a pretty good growth spurt recently too. Anyway, good to see Winnipeg well above 800K and growing.

Yeah you're wrong on both counts. From 2005 - 2008 Hamilton population exceeded Winnipegs

2008:
Hamilton 725,297
Winnipeg 723,251

Since 2008 Winnipeg has grown at a higher pace than Hamilton both on a raw numbers and percentage basis every year. Hamiltons population has grown on average of 0.91% per year. Winnipeg on average has grown at a rate of 1.48%.

Last 3 years growth:
Hamilton 0.70% 1.04% 1.20%
Winnipeg 1.44% 2.12% 1.82%

All data from Stats Can Estimates of population by census metropolitan area

[Authentic_City]

^interesting. Have not seen the numbers you posted. These are estimates, not census counts. In the 2001, 2006, 2011 censuses, Winnipeg was ahead, and we still are. It was a big deal in the news when the 1996 census was published showing QC was ahead of WPG. I would think it would have made the news if Hamilton surpassed WPG.

Checked the archived censuses from 2001-2011.

In the 2001, 2006 censuses Winnipeg was just ahead of Hamilton.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...g&T=205&RPP=50

Also ahead in 2011:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...=Eng&T=205&S=3

Curious?

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by Authentic_City

^interesting. Have not seen the numbers you posted. These are estimates, not census counts. In the 2001, 2006, 2011 censuses, Winnipeg was ahead, and we still are. It was a big deal in the news when the 1996 census was published showing QC was ahead of WPG. I would think it would have made the news if Hamilton surpassed WPG.

Checked the archived censuses from 2001-2011.

In the 2001, 2006 censuses Winnipeg was just ahead of Hamilton.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...g&T=205&RPP=50

Also ahead in 2011:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...=Eng&T=205&S=3

Curious?

Census is not accurate and adjusted for undercount. The above is from Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 051-0056. Which tries to adjust for the census undercount. It’s published yearly estimating for July 1.

“Population estimates for July 1 are final intercensal from 2001 to 2010, final postcensal for 2011 to 2013, updated postcensal for 2014 to 2016 and preliminary postcensal for 2017.”

Estimated under coverage rates:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...bl11.1-eng.cfm

[Authentic_City]

^interesting info. Thanks.

[Jets4Life]

I cannot comprehend why most who have posted about Hamilton think it will "overtake" Winnipeg again, in population. IN the last decade, Winnipeg has grown faster than Hamilton, in numbers, and percentage of increase. In fact, if it was not for Burlington, Hamilton would have not grown at all in the last 20 years. I don't believe the GTA will have much of an effect, if any, on the growth of Hamilton. If it had, we would have seen the results by now.

[esquire]

^ I think regional transit improvements will make the difference in Hamilton. If you're priced out of downtown Toronto, soon living in downtown Hamilton will be a reasonably priced facsimile for commuters.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ I think regional transit improvements will make the difference in Hamilton. If you're priced out of downtown Toronto, soon living in downtown Hamilton will be a reasonably priced facsimile for commuters.

I don't think hardly anyone will commute daily from Hamilton to Toronto and vice versa. It's too far. As I said before, if Hamilton was benefiting off the fact that Toronto was becoming to costly, we would have seen it years ago. It's not going to happen.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ It's probably just a matter of time before Hamilton takes a commanding population lead over Winnipeg as it continues to get subsumed by the GTA.

The City of Mississauga overtook Winnipeg in population years ago. However, Winnipeg is closing in, and will likely overtake Mississauga in population in the next few years. If Winnipeg is catching up and passing large suburbs of Toronto, I don't expect Hamilton to be an exception to this rule.

[bigguy1231]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

I don't think hardly anyone will commute daily from Hamilton to Toronto and vice versa. It's too far. As I said before, if Hamilton was benefiting off the fact that Toronto was becoming to costly, we would have seen it years ago. It's not going to happen.

There are approximately 5,000 people per day that currently commute from Hamilton to Toronto using either rail or road. It's about an hour to an hour and a half commute at rush hour. Out side of the rush hours you can get from downtown Hamilton to downtown Toronto in 45 minutes.

The Ontario government is predicting that the GTHA is going to grow by 3 million people by 2030. It is reasonable to assume that Hamilton will get their fair share of that population growth. As of the end of last year there are almost 10,000 condo and apartment units being built or proposed just in Hamilton's downtown. Then there is the housing developments on the periphery of the city. One alone will house 80,000 and another already being developed will have 50,000. They aren't building all of this housing for current residents, it will be for newcomers.

[plrh]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

I don't think hardly anyone will commute daily from Hamilton to Toronto and vice versa. It's too far. As I said before, if Hamilton was benefiting off the fact that Toronto was becoming to costly, we would have seen it years ago. It's not going to happen.

I mostly agree. I think the biggest change would be when employers start moving to Hamilton to avoid the congestion (to provide a benefit to employees).

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by bigguy1231

There are approximately 5,000 people per day that currently commute from Hamilton to Toronto using either rail or road. It's about an hour to an hour and a half commute at rush hour. Out side of the rush hours you can get from downtown Hamilton to downtown Toronto in 45 minutes.

5,000 commuters out of a population of almost 10,000,000 people in the Golden Horsehoe is a drop in the bucket. Those times are also incredibly optimistic. I live in Calgary near Nose Hill Park. I work in the Foothills Industrial area 17 km away. The Deerfoot is the perfect route to take, and it makes for 3/4 of the commute. It still takes me 45 minutes to drive home from work, leaving at 330. The QEW would have far more vehicles, and considering the distance between Hamilton and Toronto is about 60km, you are probably looking at a daily rush hour commute of 3.5-4 hours. You may get to Toronto from Hamilton within 45 minutes if you leave at 430 in the morning, but in rush hour, even a 90 minute one-way commute sounds optimistic for a region that is approaching 10 million people.

The Ontario government is predicting that the GTHA is going to grow by 3 million people by 2030. It is reasonable to assume that Hamilton will get their fair share of that population growth. As of the end of last year there are almost 10,000 condo and apartment units being built or proposed just in Hamilton's downtown. Then there is the housing developments on the periphery of the city. One alone will house 80,000 and another already being developed will have 50,000. They aren't building all of this housing for current residents, it will be for newcomers.

None of that is relevant. Only population figures are relevant.

2014-17 CMA growth:

Winnipeg- 42,900
Hamilton 22,700

[Biff]

Kinda cool...Live Population Clock by StatsCan

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

[OTA in Winnipeg]

Originally Posted by ILYR

864312 ... unless Trump gets in, then we will hit a 1 Million with the mass influx of immigrants from down south!!! Keep your pants on, this is only humor.

Turns out, there was some accuracy to this statement.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by OTA in Winnipeg

Turns out, there was some accuracy to this statement.

We will build a wall eventually, too keep those pesky Yankees out.

• Video Link

[balletomane]

Not sure where to put this so I figured here,

Certainly not troubling, but a little disappointing, Winnipeg's inner city neighborhoods grew only 2.7% from 2011 to 2016 (to 130,839 from 127,435), down from 4.8% growth from 2006 to 2011. The neighborhoods that are entirely within the downtown zoning bylaw area grew by 6.4% from 14,170 to 15,085 (all of Downtown is now over 16,000).

However, several neighborhoods that appeared to be on an upward trajectory shrunk,
Dufferin Industrial -68.8%
South Point Douglas -28.1% (this should return to positive by 2021 I figure)
Armstrong Point -15.3%
China Town -7.6%
Dufferin -5.3%
North Point Douglas -3.8%
Glenelm -3.7%
Colony -2.9%
Luxton -2.7%
Chalmers -0.6%
McMillan -0.3%
William Whyte 0.0%

[Spocket]

No new residential construction. They had Waterfront previously.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by balletomane

Not sure where to put this so I figured here,

Certainly not troubling, but a little disappointing, Winnipeg's inner city neighborhoods grew only 2.7% from 2011 to 2016 (to 130,839 from 127,435), down from 4.8% growth from 2006 to 2011. The neighborhoods that are entirely within the downtown zoning bylaw area grew by 6.4% from 14,170 to 15,085 (all of Downtown is now over 16,000).

However, several neighborhoods that appeared to be on an upward trajectory shrunk,
Dufferin Industrial -68.8%
South Point Douglas -28.1% (this should return to positive by 2021 I figure)
Armstrong Point -15.3%
China Town -7.6%
Dufferin -5.3%
North Point Douglas -3.8%
Glenelm -3.7%
Colony -2.9%
Luxton -2.7%
Chalmers -0.6%
McMillan -0.3%
William Whyte 0.0%

Do you have a link to this? I would like to see it. Armstrong Point....geez. I love that area. I see potential in South Point Douglas too, but it is all homes that seem to be unkempt. I lived in West Broadway, off of Balmoral and Young St (by the Balmoral Hall school). What would that area be named?

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

Do you have a link to this? I would like to see it. Armstrong Point....geez. I love that area. I see potential in South Point Douglas too, but it is all homes that seem to be unkempt. I lived in West Broadway, off of Balmoral and Young St (by the Balmoral Hall school). What would that area be named?

That's still just West Broadway. West Broadway doesn't get broken down into any smaller pieces, if we're talking about official City of Winnipeg neighbourhood boundaries.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by Jets4Life

Do you have a link to this? I would like to see it. Armstrong Point....geez. I love that area. I see potential in South Point Douglas too, but it is all homes that seem to be unkempt. I lived in West Broadway, off of Balmoral and Young St (by the Balmoral Hall school). What would that area be named?

Neighborhood population figures for 2016 are shown in the 2017 Winnipeg Wards Boundary Commission report for new city council boundaries.
https://www.winnipeg.ca/clerks/Wards.../AppendixE.pdf

Inner City population figures for 2011 census from the city website
https://winnipeg.ca/Census/2011/City...ner%20City.pdf

Inner City boundaries:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...says-1.3358232

[esquire]

It's hard to read too much into population stats without a little more context. For instance, in West Broadway you might have situations where a big old home was used as a rooming house for 10 people, but was bought, renovated and is now occupied by a couple. It's a drop in population, but not indicative of a neighbourhood in decline.