Projects That Will Be Cancelled in the New Reality

whatnext · #1 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 12:27 AM**

Despite the shiny presentation centres, it's clear the housing market is in a serious correction. What projects do you think will be cancelled or put on hold indefinitely as the new reality sinks in?

My top picks:
-Little Mountain (Holborn couldn't even get it going when times were good)
-Oakridge - the demographic it was aimed at is finding it difficult to offshore the money to buy.

Sheba · #2 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 1:19 AM**

In Burnaby:

Some of the towers along Beresford and most of the buildings towards Imperial won't go beyond a sketch anytime soon.

There'll be delays on the next phases at Brentwood, Lougheed and Southgate.

misher · #3 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 4:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Despite the shiny presentation centres, it's clear the housing market is in a serious correction. What projects do you think will be cancelled or put on hold indefinitely as the new reality sinks in?

My top picks:
-Little Mountain (Holborn couldn't even get it going when times were good)
-Oakridge - the demographic it was aimed at is finding it difficult to offshore the money to buy.

Oak ridge is being backed by Quadreal (aka bc pension plans). I don’t think the government will let something upset their own pensions. Hell imagine the votes they may lose from teachers to nurses if there own real estate measures kill their pensions.

dreambrother808 · #4 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 4:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by misher

Oak ridge is being backed by Quadreal (aka bc pension plans). I don’t think the government will let something upset their own pensions. Hell imagine the votes they may lose from teachers to nurses if there own real estate measures kill their pensions.

Except they were literally elected to create this change and the majority still supports it. So keep pissing in the wind...

WarrenC12 · #5 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 4:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by misher

Oak ridge is being backed by Quadreal (aka bc pension plans). I don’t think the government will let something upset their own pensions. Hell imagine the votes they may lose from teachers to nurses if there own real estate measures kill their pensions.

Huh? If the project gets delayed Quadreal will look somewhere else for investments and come back to this one later. It's not like they've committed billions to it. Better to halt now than start building something that won't sell or generate lease income.

scryer · #6 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 5:31 PM**

Hate to say it but the Butterfly tower might be cancelled.

I am hoping for Beach Crescent though only because I greedily want a redesign.

whatnext · #7 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 7:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by scryer

Hate to say it but the Butterfly tower might be cancelled.

I am hoping for Beach Crescent though only because I greedily want a redesign.

Haven't enough of the Butterfly units been presold to proceed? I can definitely see the Pinnacle project getting deferred though.

LeftCoaster · #8 Posted **Sep 13, 2018, 11:54 PM**

Butterfly is a go...

I doubt anything will get cancelled, just pushed out.

There will still be demand year in and year out, and as the pace of constitutions slows costs will come down and so will prices, then we'll be in this cycle all over again.

whatnext · #9 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 12:50 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Butterfly is a go...

I doubt anything will get cancelled, just pushed out.

There will still be demand year in and year out, and as the pace of constitutions slows costs will come down and so will prices, then we'll be in this cycle all over again.

It depends on whether one believes the Chinese money train will pull into the station again. Personally I tend to think that one time aberration is over, certainly to the degree of 2005-2017. There's too much awareness of it now, and pressure on politicians to stop it. The Chinese economy's huge yearly growth figures are slowing, and Trump may slow that even further. Even if Chinese controls on capital flight were relaxed internally, I doubt we would return to the situation of five years ago. Add into that rising interest rates in general and the perception Vancouver is overvalued.

Remember at the end of the 1980's people were convinced Japan's real estate buying spree would go on forever.

jlousa · #10 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 3:38 AM**

Butterfly will go ahead. So will Oakridge. Oakridge is a huge multi phase project spanning over a decade, it won't be stopped due to the government that is currently in power. We will see a more then one election before it's completed and I'm sure at least one change in government.
I do expect several projects will get curtailed and some possibly redrawn to different standards similar to what we saw happen in 2008.

Migrant_Coconut · #11 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 4:19 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Remember at the end of the 1980's people were convinced Japan's real estate buying spree would go on forever.

Market slowdown =/= recession. We're hardly going to see something like Oakridge just flat-out cancelled.

misher · #12 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 5:34 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Market slowdown =/= recession. We're hardly going to see something like Oakridge just flat-out cancelled.

Depends if NDP are in again? Lol

connect2source · #13 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 12:22 PM**

I think many which haven't made it to the pre-sale phase will be cancelled or seriously re-work to more modest offerings.

Projects which involve large demos could be cancelled such as the Big Thom proposal at Bidwell and Alberni which involves the demo of a 70's high-rise or the twin towers proposed for the 1400 block of Alberni. Anthem is likely re-working their vision for the 1600 block of Georgia as well.

The issue with most of these is that they were targeting off-shore buyers with uber-luxury $2500/sf+ units. This is the segment that's hurting most in the market at the moment. If some of these projects do proceed I suspect they'll be down-gauged to smaller more modest units or market-rentals.

Alex Mackinnon · #14 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 2:11 PM**

The New Reality sounds rather melodramatic, I have to say.

Cyclic and bubbly markets have always been the reality, haven't they?

WarrenC12 · #15 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 2:57 PM**

^^^^^

Not to mention the Provincial and Municipal governments are both talking about all the housing they will build. It might not be some of the specific projects on the drawing board now, but there will continue to be a bunch of residential construction.

Jebby · #16 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 4:09 PM**

Wouldn't a slowdown affect large multi-phase projects like King George and City of Lougheed more given their lower price point and ambitious scale? Whereas single tower projects in the Vancouver core would still go ahead as planned due to higher demand and price per square foot?

I don't expect them to be cancelled at all, but future phases would be pushed back a few years.

csbvan · #17 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 4:14 PM**

Like others have said, I doubt there will be rampant cancelled projects, maybe a few. Likely, many projects will get pushed way back, and other projects that would have otherwise been announced will not shelved.

misher · #18 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 6:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

^^^^^

Not to mention the Provincial and Municipal governments are both talking about all the housing they will build. It might not be some of the specific projects on the drawing board now, but there will continue to be a bunch of residential construction.

Its funny how they say they will build much more then go on to trash developers, investors, and the real estate market that are funding/doing/pushing the building. Kind of feels like our politicians are two faced.

LeftCoaster · #19 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 6:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

It depends on whether one believes the Chinese money train will pull into the station again. Personally I tend to think that one time aberration is over, certainly to the degree of 2005-2017. There's too much awareness of it now, and pressure on politicians to stop it. The Chinese economy's huge yearly growth figures are slowing, and Trump may slow that even further. Even if Chinese controls on capital flight were relaxed internally, I doubt we would return to the situation of five years ago. Add into that rising interest rates in general and the perception Vancouver is overvalued.

Remember at the end of the 1980's people were convinced Japan's real estate buying spree would go on forever.

People are still going to move to Vancouver and need a place to live.

We build housing for more than just Chinese capital.

WarrenC12 · #20 Posted **Sep 14, 2018, 6:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by misher

Its funny how they say they will build much more then go on to trash developers, investors, and the real estate market that are funding/doing/pushing the building. Kind of feels like our politicians are two faced.

Please let me know who is "trashing developers" and where they are making these statements?

The RE Agent industry has shown itself to be in serious need of regulation.